why just making great games is not enough | anders lykke

CASUAL CONNECT, TEL-AVIV Nov. 1st, 2016

Why Just Making Great Games Is Not Enough

@anders_lykke, VP, Talking to People

www.prioridata.com

Agenda1. Intro 2. The Story of thousands of failed games/week

and why making great games just isn‘t enough anymore

3. What do the successful publishers do differently?

4. Questions?

3

HELLO!? It‘s me...Nationality: Danish (tiny country, happy people, north of Germany)

Twittering: @anders_lykke & @prioridata

Before going Tech: I studied opera, did stand-up and had a TV Production Company in Denmark, ate a lot of pizza and played a lot of games.

Talked to: about 1000 app publishers over the past 3.5 years, this is what I have learned from the most successful ones.

COMPANY OVERVIEW

Anders LykkeVP OF

TALKING TO PEOPLE

Ex.

@prioridata / www.prioridata.com

Confidential 4

OUR MISSION

Our mission is to crowdsource the world’s largest panel of mobile app data.

We want to deliver reliable statistics on any app, publisher and market trend

WIR SIND WE ANALYSEEIN BERLINER APP STORES

Founded June 2013International team of 18

Confidential 5

We Estimate App Download & Revenues For every Game, Publisher and Market across

55 countries

Confidential 6

What we are up against (we’re kinda ‘indie’ too)INTRO

Confidential 7

We believe in Partnerships with other industry players...

And at the core of it all: App Developers and Publishers

8

Gaming:

Travel & Navigation:

Sports / Kids / Food:

News & Reference:

Social / Music / Entertainment:

Health & Fitness / Finance:

E-commerce:

PRIORI DATA BACKGROUND

9

Starting out on a high note:

You are in the right industry: Mobile is 37% of $ and growing like crazy!

Confidential 10

11

The recipe for success in the App

Store is easy!!

12

Apple App Store, US

In 2015, 4 in 1,000 new games made it into the top 100 free

overall.


13

Apple App Store, US

In 2015, 1 in 1,000 new games made it into the top 10 free

overall


14

Apple App Store, US

63% of new games that made it into top 10 were featured

beforehand


15

Apple App Store, US

100% of these were featured on the iTunes front page


16

Apple App Store, US

Growth Hack # 1: Get featured on the iTunes

front page!


17

But not all apps or games get there: The

story of a million failed apps…

18

There’s like… a lot!! of new apps coming out

In the week of October 11th-17th, 2016, more than 15,000 new apps were launched in the Google Play

and Apple App Store…


19

Apple App Store, US

907 of these…Got more than 1.000 downloads. Globally.


Example: One of the Indie ‘Games of the Year’

*Apple App Store and Google Play Store combined, based on June 2015 data

20

STATE OF THE (APP) UNION

Story Warriors: Fairy Tales By Thumbstar Games

• Launched July, 2015

• #4 on Indie Gamer Reviewer’s top 10 best Indie Games in 2015

• An IndieCade 2015 Festival pick

We Can Argue About Whether It Should be The Goal...

22


But Top Charts are Still the Best Proxy for Reach, Scale, and $$$

23

Getting in is not the problem…

DE US GB-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

76

2556

38

60

43

114

8599

Series1 Free Charts Paid Charts

Our Data Shows ~100 New Games Achieve a Top Position/Day

24

Daily # of New Games in Top 200

Based on Apple App Store in June 2015


• 60% are free games, except in the US where 70% are paid.


25

Remaining in the charts is a problem

STATE OF THE (APP) UNIONTop Chart Turnover (& Discovery) Offer Only Fleeting Success

26

Average Length of Stay per New App

>2 weeks 1-2 weeks <1 week one day0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

3%7%

41%

49%

1% 3%

71%

25%

Average Free App Average Paid App

• 50% of new free apps are in and out of the charts within 1 day,

• 90% out within 1 week.

• Only 4% of new apps last more than 2 weeks in the charts.

Based on Apple Top 200 Charts. „New“ designates first-time appearance in the top chart, not age of the app.

STATE OF THE (APP) UNIONApps Represent a “Winner Takes All” Market

27

Share of Market to Top Publishers • 100 companies command ~70% of store downloads and 60% of store revenue by leveraging their portfolios and large ass marketing budgets

• Smaller devs often do zero market research and are taken by surprise

% of Total Store Down-loads

% of Total Store Revenue0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

72%59%

9%

8%

5%

5%

14%28%

Top 100 101-200201-300 Everyone Else

Based on Apple App Store in June 2015. Global Estimates.

% of Downloads % of Revenue

28

So the question really is…

29

Do you want to build great games, or do you want to build a

great business?

Confidential 30

Confidential 31

Say Whaaaat?! Nobody is downloading my amazing game!!I DON’T NEED MONEY, DEAR…

32

Making Games is an art form. Game developers are artists.

• Mobile began as (and still is) a Creative Industry

• Creative genius was enough for initial success

• Business planning / goal setting / benchmarking was (and still is) secondary for the “long-tail” of devs

I DON’T NEED MONEY, DEAR…


33

How are our most successful partners

thinking about launching apps and

growing their businesses?

34

1. They understand the

value of a Data/Marketing

Wizard!

35

What characterizes our most successful partners?

“Today, without organic installs, apps cannot stay above water. The only reason a mobile game player will invite his friend into an app today is if he needs his friends to join his game experience in order to continue playing and evolving.”

- Michael Velkes, Mobile Games Consultant

1. GET THE RIGHT PEOPLE


36

What characterizes our most successful partners?

• The successful gaming companies – including indies –have as good UA / BI / Marketing / Growth Hackers as they have developers.

• They empower these people through tools and the mandate to change the direction of the company by having them take part in shaping the product from the get-go.

• This is the most important part. With great data people, you can accomplish the following…

1. GET THE RIGHT PEOPLE


37

2. They Soft-launch &

Test a lot!

38

Fewer, calculated bets through soft-launches

• “If app developers don’t deliver a surprising and delightful app from the get-go, they set themselves up to blow every chance — and budget — they have.” (Oliver Kern)

• The first week after commercial launch is (the most) crucial, so you need to have realized and addressed the critical bugs/issues in advance thereof.

• You don’t need a perfect product to soft-launch and understand if your game truly has potential or if it needs to be buried.

2. TEST LIKE THERE IS NO TOMORROW


39

Wordalot – Picture Crossword / MAG InteractiveLaunched June 2nd, 2016

Source: Priori Data Gmbh, All data are estimates


40

Wordalot – Picture Crossword / MAG Interactive



41

Wordalot – Picture Crossword / MAG Interactive


Pre Launch Country Daily Downloads

Daily Revenues

Revenue / Download

1 month Global 1012 $398,00 $0,39

2 months Global 3438 $2.054,00 $0,60

Today Global 6747 $6.121,00 $0,91


42

3. They Pay attention to the Stores and their

competition

43

Think about timing: - MOM % Increase in # new submissionsTHE APP STORES ARE SUPER MARKET

Think about major events that may impact you

44

THE APP STORES ARE SUPER MARKET

Sources: 9-5 Mac

World Cup - Category Impact

45


Sources: Priori Data

46

Consider the world around you

• App downloads denote consumer demands. Consumer demands are driven by needs, events and marketing.

• Are there any major events going on at the moment that may affect demand for my app/game?

• What are my competitors doing?



47

4. They identify new

market(s) and set realistic benchmarks using data

48

Using Priori Data To Determine Global Growth Opportunities

49

Looking for the right market: Example

• Puzzle Games, iOS• Business model: Free w/ in-app purchase • Competition: ~18k games worldwide• For this study: France, Germany & Brazil • Goal: top 10 free spot

IDENTIFY NEW MARKETS


50

iOS Puzzle Games: Which market should I target?IDENTIFY NEW MARKETS

Country September Country Downloads

Sep. IAP Revenues Rev/Download ratio

Germany 2.6M $2.8M $1.08

France 3.3M $3.2M $0.97

Brazil 1.6M $455k $0.28Source: Priori Data

51


Country September Country Downloads (excluding top 3 grossing)

Sep. IAP Revenues (excluding top 3 grossing)

Rev/Download ratio (excluding top 3 grossing)

Germany 2.4M $2.1M $0.87 (-20%)

France 3.1M $1.9M $0.61 (-38%)

Brazil 1.5M $337k $0.22 (-15%)Source: Priori Data

52


Source: Priori Data

Country Q3 Downloads Q3 Downloads growth (Q/O/Q)

Q3 Revenues Q3 Revenues growth (Q/O/Q)

Germany 7.3M 2.1M (28%) $8.1M $967k (12%)

France 9.3M 2.7M (29%) $8.2M $2.4M (29%)

Brazil 4.5 1.1M (24%) $1.3 $203k (16%)

53

What’s the cost associated with achieving a top 10

spot?

54

iOS Puzzle Games: What is the cost of a top 10 chart position?IDENTIFY NEW MARKETS

Country Daily Downloads needed to reach top 10 (30 day avg.)

Assuming we need to buy half of those installs

Avg. CPI for Puzzle games (Chartboost)

Cost per day assuming you need to purchase 50% thereof)

Germany 1430 715 $2.53 $1,808

France 1480 740 $2.00 $1,480

Brazil 780 390 $0.90 $351Source: Priori Data & Chartboost

55

Looking for the right market: Summary

• Germany: most $ per download, but slower growth and highest CPIs.

• France: Solid Revenue Growth, but top market concentration.

• Brazil: Lower $ per download, but CPI levels => top 10 spot can be more easily acquired



56

Looking for the right market: Brazil

• There are 45 iOS Puzzle Games that make >1$ /download in Brazil.

• Estimated downloads needed for a top 10: 780

• Estimated cost/day: $351• Estimated revenue per download: $1 =

780/day• Estimated profit: $429/day ($780-$351)

• 3


Source: Priori Data @prioridata / www.prioridata.com

57

5. They are able to

provide answers to these questions:

58

You can start answering the questions that make a difference

• What is our avg. LTV of users? • How well do we retain our users?• What’s our ideal app store top chart position?• What is the organic uplift we get from being ranked in the top charts?• What is the ratio between acquired and ‘organic’ users?• How are we performing relative to our peers over time?• What will it cost us to go Global and how should we go about testing new

markets?• Should we raise money to accelerate our growth and how do we justify

that to potential investors?

IF YOU GET IT RIGHT…


59

Companies that can answer these simple

questions, are growing 3X faster

60

Data Quality Powers a Comprehensive Intelligence Platform

Customized Lead Lists Market Trends

Competitive Tracking

API

App Intelligence:• Daily Downloads & Total Install Base• Daily Revenues & Total Revenues• Rankings

Publisher Intelligence:• Portfolio Overview• Business Model Breakdown• Location of Developer

Market Intelligence:• Top Charts• New Entrants• Market Sizing• Identify Top Local Developers

Thank you!

Get a free account at www.prioridata.com

Use code ‚CC2016‘ for an upgrade@anders_lykke / [email protected]

why just making great games is not enough | anders lykke

Technology