why modelling heatstress?

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http://delta.tudelft.nl/article/green-gutters-abate-rain-storms/30246

Using Quick Scan methods for managementof urban heat and flood risks

or ‘I don’t like models’

.

ir. F. (Floris) Boogaard, Professor at HanzeUniversity of Applied Sciences Groningen (Netherland)[email protected]

Trondheim, 5 February 2016

Who is Floris Boogaard?Dutch direct: I don’t trust models

“EU”: (quick scan) models have my greatest respect(q ) y g p

16-2-2016 Kenniscentrum NoorderRuimte bureau NoorderRuimte

Content1. Why modelling heat and flooding?2. Quick scan models

1. Data needed

2. urban heat

3. flood risks

3. Verification and calibration4. Getting things done: quick wins5. Knowledge exchange (3D)6. More info?

Challenges in urban areas


examples of problems in the Urban areas: floodings, degradation of waterways, heatstress, drought leading to lower groundwatertable and subsidence with results as damage of buildings

Why modelling heatstress?


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Why modelling floods?Floods in São Paolo/Brazil

Saturday 2 January 2010• January 2010Tuesday 8 December 2009 y y

Deaths: >57January 2010

• Deaths: >64

January 2011

Deaths: >432, (incl.Rio deJ)10 January 2012

Deaths: >28

Tuesday 8 December 2009

Deaths: >66

Friday 9 September 2011

Deaths: >216-2-2016 Kenniscentrum NoorderRuimte bureau NoorderRuimte16-2-2016

Kenniscentrum NoorderRuimte bureau NoorderRuimte

Source: www.telegraph.co.uk/news

Will it get better?No, so get quick insights on the problems

population growth Manila (1995, 2010 and prediction till 2035 and 2060


1. Data needed

2. urban heat

3. flood risks


Quick scan modelshigh level discision tools

What can we model?

• Heat, flood, drought, air polution, subsidence, mobility, earthquakes… y, q

• Combinations: stresstesting, disaster risk mapping, ….


16-2-2016

Quick scan modelshigh level discision tools

What data is needed model?

• GIS based, using:– DEM data (4 pt/m2)

– LidarLidar– buildings

– Green (trees/bush)

– Paved areas

– Water

– Function of areas

– Basic climate info (sun/shadow)

– Measurements (N,Tair/PET)

– Underground sewers?16-2-2016

16-2-2016

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Modelling extreme stormwater eventssimplifications

Modelling sewers at extreme events?Rubbish in is rubbish out

Modelling sewerscalibration


Detailed modellingor quick scan?

Dagneerslag in augustus 2005neerslagmeter Bunnik

KNMI De Bilt

KNMI Doorn

overstortenoverstorten

InterneInterne--en/of externe en/of externe overstortenoverstorten eindgemaleneindgemalen

RioolRiool--en en

eindgemaleneindgemalenRegenmetersRegenmeters

RioolRiool--waterstandenwaterstanden

Gegevens opslagGegevens opslag

VerwerkingVerwerking

InformatieInformatieInformatieInformatie

RapportagesRapportages

Presentatie:Presentatie:BeeldschermBeeldschermRapportagesRapportages

TopografTopografieieEvenemEvenementenentenOntwikkOntwikkelingenelingen

RBSRBS ZBZB MIDMIDASAS

ExterExternn

DataData

ObjectObjectgegevengegevenss

ObjectObjectgegevengegevenss

MeetMeetgegevengegevenss

MeetMeetgegevengegevenss

RWZI’sRWZI’s kwaliteitkwaliteit

RegenwwterRegenwwterRegenwwterRegenwwter

GrondwaterGrondwaterGrondwaterGrondwater

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Extremes and contribution of sewers

Content1. Why modelling heat and flooding?2. Quick scan models: disaster modelling

1. Data needed

2. urban heat

3. flood risks

3. Verification and calibration4. Getting things done: quick wins5. Knowledge exchange 6. More info?

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Case: Fire Chemie-Pack (Dutch chemical industry site) at Moerdijk Location before and after the fire

VoorNa

Flow directions extinguishing water

Disaster Risk management mapping

Surface elevation level (DTM) Accumulation of extinguishing water

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Stream tracks and vulnerable locations From local scale to city scale


?Groningen

?Groningen

?

Stresstest: flood and heatstress3D model

Mapping

measurements

Bildet kan ikke v ises. Datamaskinen har kanskje ikke nok minne til å åpne bildet, eller bildet kan være skadet. Start datamaskinen på nytt, og åpne deretter filen på nytt. Hvis rød x fortsatt v ises, må du kanskje slette bildet og deretter sette det inn på nytt.

1002 solutionsfor heatstress and floodings

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Groningeninfo available for verification


- de winschoterkade

1950 2010

Groningen: model verificationcould we predict this?

measures

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzFahS9RJPA

3D flood and heatstressmodels

Impression of 3D


HoogeveenWOLK 3D

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1. Data needed

2. urban heat

3. flood risks




Results

Results


Impression of heatstress measurements


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Country Organisation City projectsNederland University of Applied Sciences Amsterdam o.a. Groningen,

Amsterdam, Hoogeveen,Houten en Eindhoven

Raak onderzoek Klimaatbestendige Stad,inrichting in de praktijk

Nederland University of Applied Sciences Rotterdamen Leeuwarden (VHL) en WetterskipFryslan

Leeuwarden, Drachten,Delft, Rotterdam

Diverse projecten omtrent (beoordeling van)duurzame watersystemen oa met onderwaterdrones

Nederland ministerie van Infrastructuur en Milieu Hoogeveen, Meppel. Masterclasses kilmaatadaptatieNederland STOWA Diverse (inter)nationale

steden en regiosImplementatie en actualisatiewww.climatescan.nl

Noorwegen Norwegian University of Science andTechnology (NTNU),University of Applied and The Geological

Oslo/Trondheim/Bergen

“INnovations for eXtreme Climatic eventS”“INXCES”

But does it work in other climates?Some HUAS projects 2016-2020


University of Applied and The GeologicalSurvey of Norway (NGU)

Zweden Luleå University of Technology (LTU) Luleå “INnovations for eXtreme Climatic eventS”“INXCES”

Roemenië Technical University of Civil EngineeringofBucharest (UTCB-CCIAS)

Bucharest “INnovations for eXtreme Climatic eventS”“INXCES”

Duitsland Oldenburgisch-OstfriesischeWasserverband

Brake Water Co-Governance for sustainableecosystems

Zweden Havs- och vattenmyndigheten enVattenmyndigheten Västerhavetsvattendistrikt

Gothenburg Water Co-Governance for sustainableecosystems

Denemarken SEGESKommunernes LandsforeningAalborg Kommune

Aarhus,Kopenhagen

Aalborg

Water Co-Governance for sustainableecosystems

Engeland The Rivers Trust Callington Water Co-Governance for sustainableecosystems

From Groningen to Taiwanother climates….


Netherlands vs Taiwan


Comparable landsizeUrbanisation in the west


16-2-2016 Kenniscentrum NoorderRuimte bureau NoorderRuimte 16-2-2016 Kenniscentrum NoorderRuimte bureau NoorderRuimte

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Sorry, but does this model

represent real temperatures and

stress?

measurements


measures and measurmentsheatstress



1. Data needed

2. urban heat

3. flood risks

3. Verification and calibration4. Getting things done: quick wins (international)5. Knowledge exchange (3D)6. More info?

Examples extreme floodingRIO Europe vb Copenhagen

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Place? Climate city approachMultifunctionional and space for water

• Mapping flooding/heatstress

• Buildings

– Roofs

– Green buildings

• Squares

– Open areasp

– Playgrounds

• Roads

– Road surface

– Road storage

– Near roads

• Green

– parcs

– Little green

Copenhagen: Use existing infrastructure


Examples extreme floodingsBergen Norway


More to come: “INnovations foreXtreme Climatic eventS”“INXCES”

Visit Hollandwww.climatescan.nlYou are welcome



1. Data needed

2. urban heat

3. flood risks

3. Verification and calibration4. Getting things done: quick wins5. Knowledge exchange6. More info?

tools: research participationmeetings, fieldtrips, interviews, courses, seminars, jobrotation, augmented reality, serious gaming, …

SKIP

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Example WaterTownWaterBurgh – integrated

planning

Wetley-Tetley – Pluvial

flooding

61Egmond – political

decisions

Bryggen – settlement of

historic buildings

Flooding Egmond aan Zee

Augustus 2006: 60mm/h

A story and solutions to share

•budget

•>20 solutions– Dimensions

– Cost

– Experience

– Do’s and donts

•bloody nose game

101 solutions in Watertown

If roads flood, use that

Use road infrastructure‘sleeping policeman’

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Scoring scenario Conclusions

1. I don’t like models but I need quick scan methods with strong visualization for disaster modelling/stresstesting

2. Quick scan models1 Limited data needed1. Limited data needed

2. Exmaples: urban heat, flood risks (and more)

3. Verification and calibration is needed4. Participation: getting things done

1. quick wins2. Knowledge exchange (3D)

5. More info? www.climatescan.nl


1. Data needed

2. urban heat

3. flood risks

3. Verification and calibration4. Getting things done: quick wins5. Knowledge exchange6. More info?

Floodmodel for planningAmsterdam: prioritize

Floodmodel for planningAmsterdam: prioritize

Gemeten neerslag weerstation gemeente Diemen

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Bui april-2009 Bui mei-2009 Bui 8 Bui 9 Bui 10

why modelling heatstress?

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