Will Human Interpreters be Out of Fashion Soon?Elka PopovaAugust 9, 2006

Agenda

• Speech-to-Speech Translation: Definitions and Market Segmentation

• Pioneers in Speech-to-Speech Translation• Evaluation of Alternative Solutions• How is the Market Going to Evolve• Who Needs Speech-to-Speech Translation• Are Translators and Interpreters Going Away

S2S Translation Device and Software Markets: Segmentation and Definitions

Segmentation is Based on Target Markets and Applications

Portable Devices:

Definition: Handheld devices specifically designed for S2S translation Vendors: Voxtec (Phraselator) Ectaco (SpeechGuard series), IWT (VRT), SpeechGear (Endurance Tablet PC), Capinfo, NEC, other.Target market: Mobile individuals needing hands-free, eyes-free translation any time, anywhere, typically on the road and when the presence of a live interpreter is not feasible.Price range: $400-$6,000/ device

Software for Portable Devices:

Definition: Software that is downloadable or on a chip or flashdisk and is specifically designed for compact computing devices such as PDAs, tablet PCs or mobile phones. Vendors: SpeechGear (Interpreter), Sehda, BBN, otherTarget market: Mobile individuals needing hands-free, eyes-free translation any time, anywhere, typically on the road and when the presence of a live interpreter is not feasible.Price range: $100-$4,000

Software for Laptops, PCs and Servers:

Definition: Software that can be uploaded on a larger computing device for device-based or network-based S2S translation. Vendors : Sehda (S-Minds), SpeechGear (Interact), BBN, Spoken Translation, other Target market: Organizations or groups of people that have frequent interactions with non- native speakers at a certain location (hospital, police department, etc.) Price range: $995-$4,000

Introduction to the Competition

S2S Translation MarketS2S Translation Market

Uni-Directional/Dictionary Uni-Directional/Dictionary – – fixed phrase:fixed phrase:

Bi-Directional Bi-Directional Phrase-BasedPhrase-Based

Bi-Directional Bi-Directional Free-FormFree-Form

• Ectaco/LingvosoftEctaco/Lingvosoft• VoxTecVoxTec• IWT IWT • PolyglotPolyglot

• SpeechGearSpeechGear• VoxTecVoxTec• BBN BBN • NECNEC• CapInfo CapInfo • SehdaSehda

• SRI InternationalSRI International• CMUCMU• USCUSC

• Spoken Translation (STI)Spoken Translation (STI)• SpeechGearSpeechGear

• SAKHR <–> SpeechGearSAKHR <–> SpeechGear• Word Magic <–> STIWord Magic <–> STI

DOMAINDOMAIN SPECIFICSPECIFIC

FREE - FORMFREE - FORM Component SuppliersComponent Suppliers

What is Available Today

Ectaco’s Partner P800 talking dictionary series

Ectaco’s Travel SpeechGuard series

VoxTec’s PhraselatorSpoken Translation’s Converser

SpeechGear;’s Endurance Tablet PCSony’s Talkman

Advantage Disadvantage

Software•Can access greater processing power of PCs and Servers

•Less expensive

• Restricted by hardware that is not optimized for S2S translation purposes

• Lack of Mobility

Hardware• Create device that is optimized

for S2S solution• Portability• Ruggedness

• Processing power limitation• More expensive

Software vs Device

Advantage Disadvantage

Rules-Based•Greater accuracy • Need to start from scratch when

building new language pairs and/or domains

• Grammatically correct speech required – often have to speak specific phrases

Statistical • Easier to build additional language pairs and domains

• Not limited to specific group of phrases

• Allows for freer (not as grammatically correct) speech

• Not as accurate• Word spotting, not looking at

meaning

Phrase-Based vs. Statistical

A third way?• Many companies are looking at a synthesis of phrase-based and statistical translation technologies• Hoped that this will allow for the greater accuracy of phrase based technology, while some of the

flexibility of statistically based technology

Advantage Disadvantage

Unidirectional •Higher level of accuracy • Perceived to be an inferior technology

Bidirectional • Greater level of interaction • Lower level of accuracy

Unidirectional vs. Bidirectional

Is Unidirectional Inferior?

• Currently S2S technology is generally being used in directional conversations ex. ‘Get out of the car’

• In most current S2S scenarios, unidirectional solutions can provide all the interpretation ability necessary.

• Bidirectional value add will come when looking at new markets with more symmetrical interaction requirement.

2005 Impact:

•Growing ASR, TTS and

MT expertise

•U.S. government

subsidies for military use

•Early trials with public

safety organizations

•ASR-enabling of

consumer translation

devices

Market Evolution:

Portable Devices &

Software

2006 Impact:

•Early successes with

law enforcement, first

response and fire

fighters

•Consumer adoption

2007-2008

Impact:

•Further penetration

of each vertical with

more language pairs

•Early trials with

new verticals

•Declining

investment by

military

• Distribution

channels develop

2009-2010 Impact:

•Growing consumer

adoption

•Price declines and

market awareness

drive penetration of

commercial apps

•Business models

mature

2005 Impact:

•Growing ASR, TTS and

MT expertise

•U.S. government

subsidies for military use

•Early trials with public

safety organizations

Market Evolution:

Stationary Systems &

Software

2006 Impact:

•Continued trials and early

penetration of healthcare

(new regulations in U.S.),

law enforcement and

social services

•Commercialization of new

products and new

language pairs

2007-2008

Impact:

•China drives

deployments in

travel/hospitality for

Olympic games

•Early adoption by

service providers

•Declining

investment by

military

•Developing

distribution channels

2009-2010 Impact:

•Early penetration of

education and other

verticals

•Price declines foster

volume purchases and

vice versa

•Business models

mature

First Wave of ApplicationsSpecific User

GroupsWillingness to

PaySpecifics

Military:

Checkpoints, Basic Interrogation,

Instruction, Mobile Units

Very High

Core Language Need•Need to conduct simple asymmetric conversations easily with a high level of accuracy

Key Pain Point•Work in areas where there is a effective human interpretation resources are either very scarce or even non existent

Must Have•Device that will be ruggedized •Need portability •Very specialized domains, often in obscure languages

Disaster Relief:

Emergency Medical Care

High

Core Language Need•Need to conduct simple asymmetric conversations easily with a high level of accuracy

Key Pain Point•Work in areas where there is a effective human interpretation resources are either very scarce or even non existent

Must Have•Device that will be ruggedized•Need portability•Obscure language pairs

First Wave of Applications (Cont.)

Specific User

Groups

Willingness

to PaySpecifics

Medical:

Radiology, Emergency Care

Medium

Core Language Need•Adhere to government language based on non-discrimination legislation and avoid lawsuits

Key Pain Point•Adherence creates additional language based expenses

Must have•Solution with specialization within a specific medical field; very high level of accuracy

Police/Paramedics/Fire:

Mobile UnitsMedium

Core Language Need•Need to provide mobile units with the ability to conduct simple directive conversations with a high level of accuracy

Key Pain Point•Using in person human interpreters causes time delay, cannot count on wireless networks for telephone based interpreters

Must Have•Device that will be ruggedized •Portability

Second Wave of Applications

Specific User Groups Willingness to Pay Specifics

Business Traveler Low

Core Language Need•To conduct simple simple tasks while in a foreign speaking location

Key Pain Point•Using a human interpreter for these tasks is cost-prohibitive

Must Have•Easy to use•Perceived as reliable•Portable device

Self Language Learners Very Low

Core Language Need•Desire to practice/gain proficiency in another language

Key Pain Point•Do not want to pay for use of a human instructor

Must Have•Not really looking for a S2S Translator, really want an educational tool

•New verticals are being investigated

•Product development though is relatively preliminary when compared to the First Wave

Human Interpreters – to Be or Not to Be?

• Technology is not mature yet (low accuracy, few available language pairs, etc.)

• Technology cannot rival human understanding and interpretation of cultural differences and nuances in meaning (context-dependent expressions, metaphors, irony)

• S2S translation solutions will fill a gap in interpretation, rather than replace existing services (dangerous conditions, on-the-spot, on-demand interpretation, inexpensive interpretation assistance for travelers, etc.)