Will recent scientific findings redirect policy?

Øystein Hov1 and Peringe Grennfelt2

1)Norwegian Meteorological Institute and EMEP MSCW

2)IVL

Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction

• the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions)

• the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes

• air quality and health• Globalisation of the economy – transportation and

energy use, “greying of Europe”• Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and

deposition on different scales in space and time

Schär et al., 2004, Nature 427, 332-336

Schär et al., 2004, Nature 427, 332-336

RCM climate change scenario of current (CTRL 1961–90) and future (SCEN 2071–2100) conditions. a, b, distribution of summer T northern Switzerland for CTRL and SCEN, c, T for SCEN–CTR, d, Change in variability expressed as relative change in standard deviation of JJA means ((SCEN–CTRL)/CTRL, %). Copied from Schär et al., 2004.

Climate change feedbacks on atmospheric composition can be

sorted according to

• emission regulators (both anthropogenic and biogenic, including demography, shift in seasonal temperatures and the effect on energy consumption, plant and forest species, atmosphere-ocean interaction)

• transport regulators (wind, convection, mixing properties in the ABL)

• transformation regulators (rh, q, cloud cover and type, T, albedo and its effect on photolysis rates)

• removal regulators (precipitation frequency and amount, surface properties, bidirectional effects)

First order feedbacks from climate change on

atmospheric composition?A first order feedback from climate change on

atmospheric composition exists if:

The parameter changes linked to climate change affect exposure or deposition by an amount which is comparable to the changes in exposure or deposition that follow technologically or economically feasible emission changes

Enhanced boundary layer ozone over central Europe summer 2003

• Dry deposition - the most important ABL removal mechanism of ozone - is strongly reduced in drought conditions

• Enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds

• ABL breakup slower in high pressure cell and drought conditions

Probably a ”sudden change” in ozone loss while ozone production is likely to increase in drought (biogenic VOC emissions up; NOx from combustion up; but OH perhaps down). Health implications

Deposition and emission • Bi-directional nature of

ammonia exchange• Co-deposition of SO2 and

NH3

• In-canopy NOx processes• Ozone fluxes: stomatal

and external leaf uptake, closed at night and in drought

• Modelling surface – atmosphere exchange

= [NH4+]/[H+]

c

compensation c

a air concentration

cuticularresistance

boundary layer resistance

atmospheric resistance

stomatalresistance

sstomatal compensationpoint

ATMOSPHERE

CANOPY

In-canopyresistance

l soil compensationpoint

canopy

point

From Biatex2, Eurotrac2 (Erisman et al 2003)

Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds: Annual Global Total Emission > 1.5 Gt

Isoprene

(C5H8)

40%

Methanol

(CH3OH)

15%Acetaldehyde, acetone, ethene, ethanol, -pinene: 1 to 7% each

-pinene, d-carene, hexenal, hexenol, hexenyl-acetate, propene, formaldehyde, hexanal, butanone, sabinene, limonene, methyl butenol, butene, -carophylene, -phellandrene, p-cymene, myrcene: 0.2 to 1% each

Formic acid, acetic acid, ethane, toluene, camphene, terpinolene, -terpinolene, -thujene, cineole, ocimene, -terpinene, bornyl acetate, camphor, piperitone, linalool, tricyclene: 0.04 to 0.2% each

Various compounds may dominate annual emissions at specific locations

From Alex Guenther, NCAR, at ILEAPS workshop Helsinki 2003 (from www)

Estimates of climate change feedback on atmospheric composition

• Summer ABL ozone a factor of 2 over Continental Europe?

• Biogenic emissions feedback 10%?

• Acid dep and eutrophication 10%?

• Summer PM a factor of 2?

Another climate – chemical change feedback: Fire-convection frequency (”Add fire-convection to volcanoes”)• August 2003: Hundreds of boreal forest fires in

Russia and Canada and in the temperate forests of the USA (210.000km2 in Russia burnt)

• Northern summer 1998 boreal zone fires in Russia and Canada with plume smoke entering the lower stratosphere residing till October

• Significant increase in frequency and severity of boreal fires predicted under climate change (longer fire seasons and drier conditions)

Fromm and Bevilacqua, Atm.Env. 2004, 38, 163-165.

Biscuit and Tiller Fires in California and Oregon (08/14/02) – Courtesy of J. Descloitres

More lightning under climate change?

• The global surface source of NOx is about 40 MtN/a (50-50 anthropogenic and biogenic)

• Lightning source about 5 MtN/a (1-20 MtN/a range)

• Aircraft source 0.5-1 MtN/a

Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction

• the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions)

• the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes

• air quality and health• Globalisation of the economy – transportation and

energy use, “greying of Europe”• Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and

deposition on different scales in space and time

Globalisation, transportation needs

• Shipping has gone up by 70% between 1984 and 2001• Air transport has increased yearly by between 5 and 10%

since 1970. • Air pollution emissions from these transport systems have

only been controlled to a limited extent. Shipping hardly any control except some in limited areas, e.g. the North Sea and the Baltic.

• Ship emissions are today responsible for more than 10 percent of the global NOx emissions (perhaps as much as 20%).

• For Europe, shipping emissions now contribute significantly to the deposition of sulphur and nitrogen compounds in coastal areas and the downward trend in atmospheric deposition is slowing or has stopped

The Greying of Europe

Q: Fraction of N, S emitted over Europe removed there

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Wor

ld s

eabo

rn d

ry c

argo

and

oil

trad

e m

ovem

ents

, m

illio

n to

nnes

Oil

Dry Cargo

The trend in the global seaborne trade movement of dry cargo and oil since 1984 in million tonnes per year (20).

Ship tracks over the North Pacific

Red: Visible reflectance

Green: 3.7 m reflectance

Blue: 11 m temperature

Ship Track Formation

N ~ 40 cm-3

W ~ 0.30 g m-

3

re ~ 11.2 µm

N ~ 100 cm-3

W ~ 0.75 g m-3

re ~ 10.5 µm

The Greying of Europe. Tropospheric Trace Gases Observable by Satellite

Nitrogen Dioxide:

(requires separation from stratosphere)

Formaldehyde

Carbon Monoxide

Jack Fishman, NASA, ESA-ESTEC presentation from www

United Kingdom

1,18

1,2

1,22

1,24

1,26

1,28

1,3

1,32

1,34

1,36

1,38

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Italy

0,98

1

1,02

1,04

1,06

1,08

1,1

1,12

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Ratio of electricity consumption in January-March to July-September for each year 1990-2000 for the United Kingdom and Italy (36).

Eurostat Energy Database

(August 2004).

Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction

• the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions)

• the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes

• air quality and health• Globalisation of the economy – transportation and

energy use, “greying of Europe”• Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and

deposition on different scales in space and time

Megacity growth trends (ES&T Feature).

Example: O3 calculated with EURAD for BERLIOZ (July 20, 1998, 14 UTC).

Urban air quality assessment

Multi-scale character

Regional-to-urban coupling

Source: Memmesheimer

Moussiopoulos, Eurotrac2 final event 2003

Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction

• the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions)

• the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes

• air quality and health• Globalisation of the economy – transportation and

energy use, “greying of Europe”• Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and

deposition on different scales in space and time

Environment and health

ug/m3< 2020 - 2424 - 2828 - 3232 - 3636 - 4040 - 4444 - 4848 - 52> 52

0 5 10 Kilometers

Greater London 2005Annual mean NO2 concentrations

NO2

Source: CERC

Moussiopoulos, Eurotrac2 final event 2003

Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction

• the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions)

• the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes

• air quality and health• Globalisation of the economy – transportation and

energy use, “greying of Europe”• Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and

deposition on different scales in space and time

Atmosphere

Terrestrial Ecosystems

Aquatic Ecosystems

Human Activities Groundwater Effects

Surface waterEffects

CoastalEffects

StratosphericEffects

EnergyProduction

PM &VisibilityEffects

OzoneEffects

Agroecosystem EffectsNHx

FoodProduction

NOx

NOx

Crop Animal

People (Food; Fiber)

Soil

NO3

The Nitrogen Cascade

NH3

--Indicates denitrification potential

Norg

Forests &Grassland

Soil

OceanEffects

N2O

GHEffects

N2O

Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction

• the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions)

• the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes

• air quality and health• Globalisation of the economy – transportation and

energy use, “greying of Europe”• Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and

deposition on different scales in space and time

THE END