william f tyndall duke energy commercial strategic...
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Powering the Grid with Distributed Energy Resources
William F Tyndall
Duke Energy Commercial Strategic Initiatives
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Energy Challenges
United States
Aging power plants and distribution infrastructure
Climate change
Changing customer expectations
Globally
1 billion live without access to electricity
Energy reliability is challenge in many countries
Climate goals require substantial decarbonization of electricity supply
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3
Working definition of distributed energy landscape
Demand management Energy efficiency
Decentralized generation
De
ce
ntr
alized
en
erg
y r
es
ou
rce
s
En
erg
y E
xtr
ac
tors
Services and solutions
to optimize total energy
consumption for the
same level of services
Distributed storage
Storing energy/electricity,
'behind the meter' and on-
site – typically paired
with DG
Lowering or shifting
electric usage of
end-use customers
at peak or times of
dispatch
Generating electricity
'behind the meter' and
on-site where energy is
used
Ability to design,
engineer, develop,
install and manage
all the energy needs
of a customer
(includes micro-grid)
Integrated
offering
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Distributed energy: ~$15B market in 2012, to grow to ~$35B by 2020
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102
9
5
8
4
2
3
0
10
20
30
40
Revenue $B
Solar PV - Commercial
Solar PV - Residential
Energy Efficiency
Demand Management
Distributed Storage
Integration
2020(E)
35
1
2012
14
0 1
+144%
Decentralized Energy Market1 (Base case), 2012 – 2020(E)
Key assumptions
• Continued smart grid
expansion and penetration of
advanced metering
• Net metering in place in key
PV markets through 2020
• Growth in dynamic pricing
models
• No explicit changes in regional
DR expansions
• ITC at 30% through 2016, 10%
to 2020
• Energy prices broadly aligned
with Duke forecast
• Moderate econ growth
Potential upside
of $10-15B
above base
case
1. Considering only a subset of decentralized energy markets Sources: EV Power. LBNL, NERC. EIA AEO. Navigant, BCG Analysis
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Distributed energy: 35% capacity growth over last 3 years
2009-2012 US cumulative capacity growth
0
50
100
150141
21%
38%
28%
3%
Total EE DR
GW
Decentralized
Generation
11%
Traditional
Generation
(gross adds)
Utility Scale
Renewables
35% of
capacity growth
Declining Solar Prices Still Beating Analyst Expectations
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0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600
UT
TX
WV
CA
AZ
AR
AL
AK
OH
NY
NV
TN
SD
SC
RI
PA
OR
OK NM
NJ
NH
NE
ND
NC
MT
MS
MO
MN
MI
ME
MD
Average electricity price for commercial in 2012
in $/kWh
LA
KY
KS IN
IL ID
IA
FL
MA
DC
CO
Solar irradiation on optimally
inclined plane in kWh/m2/year
WY
WI
WA
VT
VA
DE
In many states, commercial PV expected to reach retail parity by 2017
Generation capacity in GW (2010) Commercial grid parity by 2017
at current electricity prices
Iso-LCOE
curves at a
PV system
price1 of
2.80 $/Wp (2012 w/ 30% ITC)
1.8 $/Wp (2017)
1.62 $/Wp (2017 w/ 10% ITC)
4.0 $/Wp (2012)
1. For roof-mounted system 100 kWp; year end prices; does not account for accelerated depreciation benefit Note: Assumptions: Performance ratio of PV system 85%; lifetime 20 years; discount rate 7%; annual OPEX as percentage of initial CAPEX 1%; assumed electric prices grow at inflation Source: Solar Electricity Handbook (online); IEA Electricity Information 2011; LBNL; NREL database; BCG analysis
HI
Note: actual electricity price by
customer has large range based on
consumption level, TOU, etc.
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0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600
Slovakia Hungary
Czech
Poland
Bulgaria
Romania Turkey South Africa
Average electricity price for households in 2012
in $/kWh (excluding VAT)
Hawaii
India
California
Spain
Texas
Australia
Greece
Japan
China
Italy
France New York
South Korea
Germany
Netherlands
UK
Finland
Sweden
Norway
Belgium
Solar irradiation on optimally
inclined plane in kWh/m2/year
Global PV market growing as more countries reach retail parity
1. For a 10kW roof-mounted system; mature PV market; price excl. VAT Assumptions: Performance ratio of PV system 85%; lifetime 20 years; discount rate 8%; annual OPEX as percentage of initial CAPEX 1%; exchange rate €1.00 = $1.30 Source: Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, NREL; PVGIS; BCG analysis
Size of electricity
market in TWh (2012)
Residential grid parity by 2013
at current electricity prices
Iso-LCOE
curves at a
PV system
price1 of
2.9 $/Wp
1.9 $/Wp
1.6 $/Wp
Note: actual economics depends
on price for PV generated energy
(e.g. FiT, net metering)
Storage Value to Commercial Customers
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:
• Demand management hardware
• Energy intelligence software
• Grid services
• Contracts with utilities to aggregate Stem asset fleet
• Provide capacity, stability, and reliability
Swarm Logic Method Automated DR Event
SWARM LOGIC: AN ELEGANT, SIMPLE SOLUTION
200KW
Traditional Method
Barclays Bank downgrades utility sector bonds due to DG plus storage From: “The Solar Vortex: Credit Implications of Electric Grid Defection” (May 2014)
Over the next few years… we believe that a confluence of declining cost trends in distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation and residential-scale power storage is likely to disrupt the status quo. Based on our analysis, the cost of solar + storage for residential consumers of electricity is already competitive with the price of utility grid power in Hawaii. Of the other major markets, California could follow in 2017, New York and Arizona in 2018, and many other states soon after.
In the 100+ year history of the electric utility industry, there has never before been a truly cost-competitive substitute available for grid power. We believe that solar + storage could reconfigure the organization and regulation of the electric power business over the coming decade.
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Two projects showing the promise
Argentina40,091,359 Area: 2,780 • Population ,400 km2 • Density: 15 p/km2
Neuquén • Population 550,334 • Area: 94,078 km2 • Density: 5.89 p/km2 • 1.83% of total GDP
South America
Coyuco-Cochico
S 36°28´54” W 70°13´17” Location
Chorriaca
S 37°55´57” W 70°06´14”
164 Population 500
Creoles Natives Mapuche
Barrancas Nearest City Chos Malal
66 km of cliff-side dirt road
Distance to
nearest city and
access
71 km of paved road
Goat and sheep farming
Communitarian horticulture Main activities
Goat and sheep farming
Communitarian horticulture
Elementary school
Health care center Services
Elementary school
Health care center
Police detachment
Civil registry
Communication radio
Rural development committe Community
Organization Rural development committe
Diesel engine providing
6 hrs/day Electric service
Diesel engines providing
18 hrs/day
Bottled gas and wood
Other fuels
used for
heating and
cooking
Bottled gas and wood
32° to 0° F
0° to -18° C
Winter
temperatures
41° to 22° F
6° to -5.2° C
Coyuco-Cochico
Chorriaca
Chorriaca Hybrid Wind-Diesel System • 100 kW of new wind
generation
• Hybrid system with existing 120kW diesel generation
• One to three turbines, depending on economics of final contractor proposals
• Annual fuel savings: 58,386 liters
Mini hydro at Coyuco-Cochico
Diversion weir
Settling basin
Penstock
Power house
Road
Bridge
Transmission line
Diversion weir Gabion weir, height=2m
Intake Side intake type with a sluice gate
Settling basin and head tank
Open type, length=9.8m, width=5m, with spillway for excess water
Penstock and spillway
Reinforced PVC pipe k6, diameter= 500mm, length=160 m. Underground
Power house 30m2 pre-assembled concrete. Located 1620 masl, 2 m above average water level.
Turbine and Generator
Cross-flow turbine (Mitchell-Banki). Impeller diameter 400 mm. Synchronous generator 400 VCA brushless with AVR
Transmission line 13.2 kVA Lenght=3.7 km and 2 transformers 04/13.2 kV – 200 kVA
Intake Height (m) 24.1
Flow (l/s) 600
Penstock net diam.(mm)
470
Hydraulic loss (m) 2.44
Net Height (m) 21.6
Generator efficiency 90%
Turbine efficiency 75%
Power output (kW) 86
Annual generation (MWh)
753
Annual fuel saved (lts) 23,796
Transmission line Mini-hydro
Distributed Energy Benefits – United States
Lower carbon emissions
Solar and energy efficiency = zero CO2 emissions
One study: Major California city could decrease carbon emissions by 70% by growing DER by 2% per year
System benefits
Reduced transmission losses
Grid Support
Greater resiliency
Reduced Consumer Costs
Customer Choice
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