A 30,000-Foot View of the Demographic LandscapeWilliam H. FreyThe Brookings Institution & The University of Michigan

www.frey-demographer.org

Projected 50 Years Population Growth

US: Population by Race: 2000 and 205069.1%50.1%

US: Population by Age: 2000 and 205012.4%20.7%

New Demographic RegionsMelting Pot AmericaThe New SunbeltThe Heartland

Melting Pot, New Sunbelt and Heartland StatesNew SunbeltMelting PotHeartland States

Share of U.S. in Melting Pot StatesForeign Born 70%Asian Language at Home 68%Spanish at Home 76%Mixed Marriages 51%

Native Born 37%English at Home 34%

Demographic Components, 2000-2007(Rates per 1000)

Immigrant Magnet Metros, 2000-07

1New York1,079,7002Los Angeles 804,7023Miami 414,1894Chicago 379,5505Dallas 289,3126Houston 263,3097San Francisco 246,8778Washington DC 241,661

Domestic Migration Magnets, 2000-07

1Phoenix477,8712Riverside, CA468,8733Atlanta353,9534Las Vegas287,1925Tampa254,7396Orlando226,6497Dallas220,5798Charlotte, NC185,647

Greatest Domestic Out-Migration, 2000-07

1New York-1,643,2282Los Angeles-1,120,8543Chicago-477,2544San Francisco-354.5345New Orleans-323.8696Detroit-263,3227Boston-260,1768San Jose-224,992

Race Composition of Regions 2007Melting PotNew SunbeltHeartland

Melting Pot States: Race Change 1990-2007

New Sunbelt: Race Change 1990-2007

California: All Races Out-Migrate

Growing "New Immigrant" Destinations 1990-2005

Immigrant Concentrations in States19902005

Immigrants vs Natives

Hispanic ConcentrationsData source: William H. Frey, US Census EstimatesPercent of County Population

Greatest Hispanic Gains, 2000-07

Fastest Hispanic Growth, 2000-07Metros with at least 50,000 Hispanics

1Cape Coral, FL137.3.2Port St. Lucie, FL109.53Charlotte100.74Fayetteville, AR 98.85Raleigh 96.26Lakeland, FL 92,47Nashville 92.18Indianapolis 85.9

Asian ConcentrationsPercent of County PopulationData source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates

Greatest Asian Gains, 2000-07

1New York315,0222Los Angeles204,6413Washington DC110,1484San Francisco108,7365San Jose98,4466Chicago95,9197Dallas85,1798Riverside84,407

Fastest Asian Growth, 2000-07Metros with at least 50,000 Asians

1Las Vegas71.52Phoenix65.33Riverside57.44Austin56.15Orlando55.66Atlanta53.07Tampa50.98Columbus OH45.2

Black ConcentrationsPercent of County PopulationData source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates

Greatest Black Gains, 2000-07

1Atlanta413,1992Houston150,1803Dallas144,8874Miami105,0935Washington DC100,1976Charlotte84,6817Orlando69,9138Baltimore61,509

White ConcentrationsPercent of County PopulationData source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates

2000-07 Greatest White Decliners

1New York-280,5192Los Angeles-229,4933Miami-142,6964San Francisco-130,7095New Orleans-127,1206Pittsburgh-95,7137San Jose-82,3478Philadelphia-76,663

2000-07 Greatest White Gainers

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Born in Same StateSource: William H. Frey analysis

US Growth by Age 2000-10

Growth by Age, 2000-10

State Growth in Child Population*, 2000-2010Under age 18

Growth in H.S. Graduates, 2002-3 to 2009-10

Percent Non White Children*, 2015* Under age 15

Percent Children with Immigrant Parents - 200651%35%35%34%32%31%31%23%

Children Speaking Other than English*, 2005Source: William H. Frey analysis* Ages 5 - 17

Percent Speaking Spanish, Children and Adults, 2005

English Proficiency for Spanish Speakers, 2005

Hispanic, Asian Children by Generation, 2006HispanicsAsians

Young Adult Education 2006 , 2 GenerationsHispanicsAsians

US Growth by Age 2000-10

Age 65 + Growth, 2000-10, US States

Percent 65+ population for States, 2005

Greatest 65+ Growth: Large Metros

1Las Vegas131.42McAllen, TX63.33Colorado Springs62.44Austin62.05Raleigh57.46Phoenix54.37El Paso52.98Atlanta51.69Orlando51.310Houston50.5

Greatest 65+ Decline: Large Metros

1Scranton-10.82Pittsburgh-2.73Springfield, MA-2.14Buffalo-1.55Worcester, MA-0.66New Haven-0.57Providence0.18Youngstown-OH0.89Toledo1.110Cleveland2.5

Fastest Growing Old-Old (85+), 2000-10 % Growth 1. Alaska 116.0 2. Nevada 96.9 3. Arizona 76.4 4. New Mexico 64.4 5. Florida 62.4 6. California 57.8 7. Delaware 57.7 8. Hawaii 57.4 9. Maryland 57.1

Projected Age 65+ Growth 2000-30, US States

Projected Age 65+ Growth, 2000-40FloridaCaliforniaNew Yorkpercent growth

Rates of Migration by AgePer 100

Arizona Projections: Aging in Place and Migrationpercent growth

New York Projections: Aging in Place and MigrationSource: William H. Frey analysispercent growth

Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife

Race for Age Groups: US

Race for Age Groups: California

Race for Age Groups: Minnesota

United StatesProjected Race Compositions, 2025

State Projected Growth, 2000-2030Source: William Frey

Electoral Vote Gains, 2000-2030Source: William Frey

Electoral Vote Losses, 2000-2030Source: William Frey

Red and Blue States, 2004Source: William Frey

Projected Red State Advantage(assuming constant 2004 state victories)Source: William Frey

Red and Blue States, 2008

Projected Blue State Advantage(assuming constant 2008 state victories)

Useful Websiteswww.brookings.edu/metro

www.frey-demographer.org