wind energy: the past, the present and the future · (lossof power largestissue) ... the technology...
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Wind Energy: the past, the present and the future
Prof.dr. Gerard J.W. van BusselChair Wind energyFaculty Aerospace EngineeringTU Delft, Netherlands
7th December 2016 TU Delft
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The Past
(Looking ~ 40 years backward)
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Dennis Meadows Club of Rome Report 1972Systems Dynamics Group (MIT) “The Limits of Growth”
The Limits of Growth 1972
• CO2 concentration: 380 ppm
• World population: 6 billion
• Depletion of resources: 30%
• Climate change identified not yet quantified
Predictions for 2000: (28 years ahead)
1972 2000 2009
De standaarduitkomst
1900 21001972 2000 2009
De standaarduitkomst
1900 2100
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The oil crisis (1973)
Saudi Arabian boycott
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Period 1970 – 1985
• 1972 Report Club of Rome
(The Limits of Growth)
• 1973 Saudi Arabian boycott: Oil Crisis
=> oil scarcity
• 1975 First National Research Programme
Wind Energy Defined (NOW1)
• 1977 Start Wind Energy Research TH Delft
• 1981 Evaluation NOW1 by Bureau BEOP
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Start of Wind Research at TU Delft (1977)
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BEOP: Perspectives for Wind Energy in NL (1981)
• 2500 MW theoretically
possible (in the long run)
• < 650 MW realistically
(loss of power largest issue)
• Deployment after year 2000
• Strong governmental
Support needed
Evaluation NOW1
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The technology of the eighties
• Bouma 20 m diameter (1985)
• Generator power 160kW
• Fixed RPM
• Asynchronous generator
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1990 1996
~ 350MW installed in NL (~10% of EU)
Growth to 3000 MW in NL possible
- 1500 MW on land
- 1500 MW at sea
1996: Status and scenario in The Netherlands
350 MW
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1990
1000 MW
2000 2010
On land
At sea2000 MW
3000 MW
1996: Status and scenario in The Netherlands
~ 350MW installed in NL (~10% of EU)
Growth to 3000 MW in NL possible
- 1500 MW on land
- 1500 MW at sea
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The Technology in 2005 (20 years later)
• Vestas V90 90 m diameter
• Generator power 3 MW
• Variable RPM
• DFIG generator
• 2005
•Factor 20 in power
•Factor 30 in production
•in 20 years
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1990
1000 MW
2000 2010
On land
At sea2000 MW
Market development in The Netherlands
3000 MW
Scenario Netherlands
Progress: too slow
Incl. Offshore wind farms
MEP boost **
** *
*
SDE
*
end SDE
End of 2016:~4000 MW~7% of EU
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The Present
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• Europe 134 GW
• Asia Pacific 129 GW
• N+S America 85 GW
• Rest of world 3 GW
Total 351 GW
(End of 2015: 432 GW)
Installed Capacity
at start of 2015:
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• Factor 40 in power
• Factor 80 in production (offshore)
• in 30 years
Wind Turbine technology at present
• GE Haliade
• Diameter 150 m
• Generator power 6 MW
• DDPM generator
• Full power converter
• Prototype 2012
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Comparable Aircraft Technology
• Lockheed Constellation
• 1946 KLM Amsterdam New-York
• Pressure cabin
• 30-40 passengers
• 550 km/h
• Nose wheel
• 4 engines
• Wing span 38 m
• Fly by cable
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• Airbus A380
• 2008 intercontinental operation
- Emerates: Dubay-New York
- Singapore Airlines: Singapore-Sydney
• ~ 500-700 passengers
• 850 km/h
• 4 engines
• Wing span 80 m
• Fly by wire
Development in Aircraft Technology
• Factor 15 in passengers
• Factor 2 in speed
• in 60 years!!
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The Future
(Looking ~ 40 years forward)
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Eight 100x100 km offshore wind farmsproduce 3,000-3.500 TWh per year
=The complete electricitydemand of the EU in 2005
Europe’s offshore WE potential
Source: Siemens
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Europe’s offshore WE potential
Source: Siemens
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Twelve 100x100 km offshore wind farms.
Cover the electricitydemand in 2050
Bottom mounted en floating wind turbines
Europe’s offshore WE potential
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EU electricity demand (ECF 2010 scenario)
Demand growth rate: 0.7%/year
- yearly economic growth 2.0%
- energy intensity growth -1.3%
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Electricity use grows to ~ 4.900 TWh in 2050
Source: EU roadmap 2050
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12 12 12 12
12888
1
29
0
19
Solar CSP
Biomass dedicated
Geothermal
Large Hydro
100
Solar PV
Wind Offshore
Wind Onshore
Nuclear
Gas CCS
Coal CCS (incl. retrofits)
Gas and oil conventional
Coal Conventional
80% RES / 10% nuclear / 10% CCS
100
2
5
18
16
16
10
5
50
60% RES / 20% nuclear / 20% CCS
100
2
5
12
10
10
20
10
10
0 0
40% RES / 30% nuclear / 30% CCS
100
2
342
9
30
15
15
0 0
Baseline
0
1 2
9
18
0 0
% of production
Electricity production mix in 2050 in EU
SOURCE: Imperial College; KEMA, McKinsey
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205 205 205 205
170
240
270
585555555
5
0120
290
120
Large Hydro
Geothermal
Biomass dedicated
Solar CSP
Solar PV
Wind Offshore
Wind Onshore
Nuclear
Gas CCS
Coal CCS (incl. retrofits)
Additional back-up
Gas and oil conventional
Coal Conventional
60
815
190
245
6045
35
0 0
1,700
80% RES / 10% nuclear / 10% CCS
2,020
60% RES / 20% nuclear / 20% CCS
10
1,110
10
60
555
130
165
125
9065
0 0
40% RES / 30% nuclear / 30% CCS
1,260
1035
195
25140
185
140
100
0 0
Baseline
3525140
1100
In GW, including back-up capacity
SOURCE: Imperial College; KEMA McKinsey
Electricity capacity mix in 2050 in EU
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27
176 197 207 206 203
203
270
222
184
126
1
847769
13
500
0
135
0
68
88
150
2040 2050
Gas and oil conventional
Coal CCS (incl. retrofits)
203020202010
Solar PV
Wind Offshore
Wind Onshore
NuclearGas CCS
33
0 0
1,741
2,022
7
Coal Conventional
Additional back-up
38
652
184
216
8229 25
10 11
59
247
18
143
190
4
9414
32
1,027
2 42119 20
56
152
1150
341
1066
1300 0
1,393
6147
816
192
9
767
Large HydroGeothermalBiomass dedicatedSolar CSP
+164%
GW, including back-up capacity
Growth of capacity in EU at 80% RES
scenario in 2050
SOURCE: Imperial College; KEMA analysis; team analysis, McKinsey
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Growth of wind power capacity in EU at 80%
RES penetration in 2050
Wind power capacity in EU
66
152190 216
247
2
56
143
184192
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GW
Offshore
On shore
• Between 2010 and 2030:
largest growth in
onshore wind
• As of 2025: growth in
offshore wind
• In 2050: 440 GW
• Supplies 32% of the
electricity demand in EU
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What does this mean for wind power in EU
(in the 80% RES scenario in 2050)?
• Wind on land grows to 247 GW (now ~150 GW)
• Wind at sea grows to 192 GW (now ~12 GW)
• With historic growth rates (30%/yr world; 11%/yr in EU)
will wind on land capacity be realised
(NB: average of 5%/yr growth rate is sufficient)
• Growth of wind at sea more challenging:
- enormous potential
- huge investments
- still high kWh cost (but sharply reduced recently)
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Thank you very much for your
interest and attention
Qestions?