Wind turbines on the campus?Consultation meeting 4 by the CRed network of partners

Trevor DaviesKeith Tovey

Future Global Warming Rates

Local impactsNorfolk in that part of the UK which is likely to be most impacted.Re-distribution of rainfall; lower summer rainfall.Landscape/agriculture changesLower summer riverflows; reedbeds under stress

Government ResponseEnergy White Paper aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s ( but no indication of how this will be undertaken)

There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.- Energy White Paper: February 2003

The CRed ambitionTo engage, enthuse and empower a large, diverse community to debate, plan and execute a programme to reduce carbon emissions by up to 60% by 2025Can a local community take on the responsibility for starting to confront the challenge of climate change and make a difference?Or will it continue to be - someone/somewhere else?Can we encourage politicians/officials to be bolder on our behalf?exemplar for the world

The CRed CommunityParticipatory/inclusivePartnershipsModes of participation (targets/methods)Matrix of modes of participation = representative of real-world complexity Spark imaginationsCentred on Norwich/Norfolk, but links across the region, country, the world.

The right language?

5 hot air balloons full of CO2 per person per year(4 million per year over Norfolk)

How do we know the CRed community represents our region?Suffolk C. CouncilNorwich UnionLiftshareEastern HeatpumpsBanham PoultryWoodysNorfolk C.CouncilNEWSSMSStrattonsDeepdale FarmCamelot CraftAlpha SchoolsJarvisFarmers linkSERCOLSIR.BilbieAmicusAEEACNorwich 21Global CommoditiesKingswood School100 +SLP EnergyPowergenEDPLEAPowergenNorwich Colour PrintMay GurneyEEDABPSSth Norfolk D. C.The Broads Auth.The RSPBSUSTRANS

Trail-blazing a new approache.g. renewables (wind)Major energy company and the CRed communityCommunity involvement/ownership of electricity generationCommunity benefits financial surplus for CRed community initiativesData/observation transmitted directly to SchoolsLong-term relationship with Norfolk to significant local benefit (in areas of energy efficiency, biomass, etc)

V3

View from approach from Earlham Road - Viewpoint 3

V3

View from across Broad - Viewpoint 2

Emphasised turbines from Broad

V3

View from View point 1

View from Yare Valley DriveTurbines will be off to left and unlikely to be visible

Reduction in CO2 emissions (yr-1)Each 1.5MW turbine:1800 tonnes (1000 balloons) avge. mix of generation3900 tonnes (2167 balloons) coal generation

Each turbine will provide electricity for 1000 homes (e.g. whole of Cringleford).

Or - both turbines would make UEAs consumption of electricity carbon-neutral.

Perception Survey done in June 2003 in Swaffham

Swaffham - Attitudes to Wind Turbine with distance of house from turbine A few houses on Colney Lane ~ 500mMost houses in Cringleford are > 900m

Chart3

55

80

90

85

distance from turbine (m)

Percent in favour

Chart2

55

80

90

85

Distance from town

Percentage of people

Percentage of people in favour of the turbine prior to construction against distance of their home form the turbine

Sheet1

20-30100

30-40100

40-5070

50-6087.5

60-70100

70-8090

80-90100

90+87.5

500-75055

750-100080

1000-125090

TOWN85

Sheet1

Age groups

Percentage of people

A graph showing the percentage of people in favour of the turbine by age group

Sheet2

Distance from town

Percentage of people

Percentage of people in favour of the turbine prior to construction against distance of their home form the turbine

Sheet3

distance from turbine (m)

Percent in favour

Whilst the wind turbine is considered 'ugly' by some residents of Swaffham, most consider it a unique landmark and see it as an asset to the town. Most of the local population are proud of the turbine and it seems to have had a positive impact on the town in a number of ways. I do believe that were it not for the number of visitors to Swaffham, coming to see the turbine for whatever reason, we would not have such a high influx of buyers from out of the area. This has increased house prices, and the prosperity of the area.

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Sheet1

26.28

potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020

Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +

nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration

On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p

Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p

Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p

Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p

Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4

Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p

Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed

Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then

Sheet2

potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +

nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p

Sheet4

350

7.284816TWH0.02081376

3285MWH

Sheet3

Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020

On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p

Off shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p

Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p

Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p

Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4

Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p

Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed

Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Sheet1

Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supply after 2050Projected costs in 2020

On shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now and cost effective~ 2p

Off Shore Wind25-50%Technical developments needed- research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20 000 on shore.3 - 5 p

Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5 - 3p

Photovoltaic50%Available but much research needed to bring down costsgreater than 10p

Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%Available - research needed in some area - competition with crops for petrol/diesel substitutes2.5 - 4 p

Wave/ Tidal Stream~100%Technology limited - extensive development unlike before 2015 - 20204 - 8p

Tidal Barrages~10%Technology available, costly, major environmental problems, unavailable before 2015 - 2020not costed in Energy Review

Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2040+

Sheet2

Sheet3

MBD003F21A7.xls

Sheet1

Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supplycosts in 2020

On Shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now~2 p

Off Shore Wind25-50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20000 on shore3 - 5p

Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5-3p

Photovoltaic50%Available. But much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+p

Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%+available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4p

Wave/ Tidal Stream100%technology limited - extensive development unlikely before 2015 - 20204 - 8p

Tidal Barrages10%technology available, but costly - unlikely without Government interventionnot costed

Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2030 if then

Sheet2

Sheet3

MBD000AB3BF.xls

Sheet1

26.28

potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020

Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +

nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration

On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p

Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p

Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p

Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p

Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4

Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p

Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed

Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then

Sheet2

potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +

nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p

Sheet3

Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020

On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p

Off shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p

Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p

Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p

Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4

Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p

Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed

Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then

Our Choices: They are difficultDo we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass.If our answer is NODo we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantlyunless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikelyIf our answer to coal is NODo we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficultIf our answer is YESBy 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS which will have to be imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:We need even more substantial cuts in energy use which could affect both industry and our ability to heat an light our homes in the future. Unless we are prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global WarmingDo we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

GOVERNMENT EFFORTS to quadruple power generated from offshore wind farms by 2010 will fail because it is assuming unproven technology will deliver higher capacity turbines, contractors warned this week.Despite Government announcements this week we still need significant development of onshore wind.There have been many proposals in past (e.g. off Wells, 1988), but only Blyth has been completed, and only one other is under construction.Offshore wind looses up to 8% of electricty compared to onshore.New Civil Engineer: 17th July 2003

WEBSITEwww.cred-uk.org/