winds-h2 model wind deployment systems hydrogen model workshop on electrolysis production of...
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WinDS-H2 MODELWind Deployment Systems Hydrogen Model
Workshop on Electrolysis Production of Hydrogen from Wind and Hydropower
Walter Short
Nate Blair
September 9, 2003
NREL 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 (303) 275-3000Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy by Midwest Research Institute Battelle Bechtel
Presentation Contents
Background Representation of wind in WinDS Representation of hydrogen in WinDS-H2
Questions that WinDS-H2 might answer System configuration Factors considered/Assumptions/Control strategy
Preliminary results Conclusions Additional Modeling Required
Background/Status
Initial WinDS model did not include H2 Under development since 2002 First results for wind electricity only available in May
2003 WinDS-H2 development began in June 2003
Initial version does not consider sources of H2 other than wind
Have a few preliminary results today Seeking your input on how to improve our current
approach
WinDS Model
A multi-regional, multi-time-period model of capacity expansion in the electric sector of the U.S
Designed to estimate market potential of wind energy in the U.S. for the next 20 – 50 years under different technology development and policy scenarios
WinDS is Designed to Address the Principal Market Issues for Wind
Access to and cost of transmission Class 4 close to the load or class 6 far away? How much wind can be transmitted on existing lines? Will wind penetrate the market if it must cover the cost of
new transmission lines? Intermittency
How does wind capacity credit change with penetration? How do ancillary service requirements that increase non-
linearly with market penetration impact wind viability How much would dispersal of wind sites help?
WinDS Addresses These Issues Through:
Many wind supply and demand regions Constraints on existing transmission available to wind Explicit accounting for regulation and operating
reserves, wind oversupply, and for wind capacity value as a function of the amount and dispersion of wind installations
Tracking individual wind installations by supply/demand region, wind class and transmission line vintage
General Characteristics of WinDS
Linear program optimization (cost minimization) for each of 25 two-year periods from 2000 to 2050
Sixteen time slices in each year: 4 daily and 4 seasons 4 levels of regions – wind supply/demand, power
control areas, NERC areas, Interconnection areas 4 wind classes (3-6), wind on existing AC lines and
wind on new transmission lines Other generation technologies – hydro, gas CT, gas
CC, 4 coal technologies, nuclear, gas/oil steam
Updated Wind Resources with Fewer Land-Use Exclusions
Transmission in WinDS
Wind Intermittency in WinDS
Constraints Capacity credit to reserve margin requirement Operating reserve Surplus wind
Probabilistic treatment Explicitly accounts for correlation between wind
sites Updated values between periods
Wind Contribution to Reserve Margin
Uses LOLP to estimate the additional load (ELCC) that can be met by the next increment of wind
q ci
ciciq RMPELCCWC,
,, )1(**
Operating Reserve Constraint
Ensures adequate spinning reserve, quick-start capacity and interruptible load are available to meet normal requirements plus those imposed by wind
i
iirqsq
qsrq
qt WfewNRILQSSR 22, )**(
Surplus Wind
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
hours
MW
Load duration curve
Derated must-run units Must-run units
Surpluswind
Usable wind
1000 MW nameplate wind36% capacity factor
Wind Costs
Cost and performance vary by wind class, and over time according to user inputs or with learning PTC or ITC with start/stop dates, term, rate Capital cost can increase with rough terrain
Price penalty on capital costs for rapid national and regional growth
Financing explicitly accounted for Transmission costs –
Existing lines: $/kWh/mile or postage stamp New lines: $/kW/mile; penalties for rough terrain and dense
population
Load
Operating reserve
Reserve Margin
Forced Outages
Imports Exports
Planned Outages
Hydroelectricity in WinDS
No capacity expansion allowed Retirements – both scheduled and
unscheduled Generation constrained by water availability
(set to average over last 5 years) Dispatched as needed for peaking power
Not constrained by irrigation, recreation, environmental considerations, etc.
WinDS-H2
Modified form of the WinDS model that includes the on-site use of wind generated electricity to produce H2 through electrolysis
Status: Initial version under development Selected preliminary results available today Seeking your comments
Questions WinDS-H2 Can Help Answer
What is the market potential for H2 from wind – nationally? Regionally?
What improvements are required in electrolyzers, storage, fuel cells and H2 transport to make wind-H2 competitive?
Does the possibility of H2 production from wind increase the potential of wind power?
What will be the principal use of H2 from wind - H2 fuel or fuel-cell-firming of wind?
Will local H2-fuel demand spur much wind-H2?
Wind-H2 System Configuration
Electrolyzer
H2 Storage
H2-fuel transport
Fuel cell
Transmission to Grid
Compressor
H2 Factors Considered by WinDS-H2
H2 and fuel cells: Fuel cells contribute 100% to reserve margin Higher transmission line capacity factor Fuel cells contribute 100% to operating reserves Reduction in surplus wind
H2 transportation fuel production Transportation cost
Local vs remote transportation fuel demand
Major Assumptions in WinDS-H2
Only new wind farms have the option to produce H2, because: Power purchase agreements Wind turbine and power controls Transmission requirements
There is a market for H2 fuel at a fixed price Market size varies with region
Fuel cells used only to fill-in behind wind
Control Strategy Summary
The fraction of each wind farm’s capacity dedicated to H2 production is the same from one year to the next
The fractions of H2 sent to the fuel cell and sold as fuel are the same from one year to the next for each wind farm
Size H2 storage for daily peak load use of H2 in fuel cell Generate with the fuel cell only during daily peak load
period to firm up the wind generation Use fuel cell generation to provide operating reserve as
required Use electrolyzers to reduce/eliminate surplus wind
generation
Base Case H2 Inputs
Component Capital Cost Operating Cost Efficiency
Electrolyzer $600/kW $0.10/Kg 0.75
Storage $100/kg $0.10/kg 1.0
Fuel Cell $600/kW $2/MWh 0.5
Compressor 0 0 1.0
Transport $0.001/Kg/mile
Base Case Capacity Results
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
GW
Wind
nuclear
o-g-s
Coal-IGCC
Coal-new
Coal-old-2
Coal-old-1
Gas-CC
Gas-CT
Hydro
Base Case H2 Inputs (cont’d)
Price of H2 fuel = $2.50/kg Maximum regional demand for H2 fuel =
5 million kg
H2 Fuel Production Sensitivity
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
An
nu
al P
rod
uc
tio
n C
ap
ac
ity
(M
illio
n k
g)
50% cost
100% cost
150% cost
Sensitivity to H2 Component Capital Costs
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GW
EC 50%
EC 100%
EC 150%
FC 50%
FC 100%
FC 150%
Preliminary Conclusions
H2 can be modeled in the WinDS model H2 from wind can be attractive at reasonable
electrolyzer and fuel cell cost and performance
Wind market penetration may be increased if the cost and performance of the electrolysis-fuel cell cycle can be improved
Additional Modeling Required
Refine existing WinDS-H2 model Implement consensus suggestions from this
workshop – both data and model Include competitive sources of H2
Distributed electrolysis Natural gas SMR Biomass Hydroelectricity