winning in a fast changing world
DESCRIPTION
The word exponential is one of the most used and least understood words in the lexicon of political and managerial speak, and yet it is fundamental to the way our world is being driven by technology in an unprecedented way. It also heralds a move away from our slow, stable and predictable industrial past, to a new era of speed, non-linearity, and greater uncertainty. It is not by accident that our working and leisure activities seem to be accelerating – everything is now mobile, intelligent, connected and communicating whilst changing at an accelerating rate. If we are to cope, if we are to win in this new environment, we have to think and act differently. The old tools and methods will not only fail, they will pose a significant and growing threat. Here we identify and consider the big game changers, look at failure mechanisms, and identify changes to come including some aspects of growing complexity. We also point out some of the basic management errors and the need to innovate in new ways that allow organisations to quickly learn and adapt on the hoof. This includes business modelling, war gaming, and celebrating failure!TRANSCRIPT
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Winning in aF a s tChanging World
Peter Cochrane
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
cochrane.org.ukca-global.org
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and in retrospect, very easy to manage !We come from a slow paced industrial past
that was linear, well behaved , easy to understand,
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everything is so fast
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Seemingly out of control, unpredictable, with non of the old rules working anymore !
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What happened ?
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Four BIG game changers !
• Microelectronics revolution
• Computing and software
• Internet, mobility and networking
• Globalisation and distribution
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Our world went digital, non-linear & exponential !
• Huge manufacturing capabilities
• Massive computing engines
• Instant connectivity
• Everyone & everything networking
• Non-obvious cause and effect
• Unintended consequences
• A growing lack of understanding
1
10
100
1000
10,000
100,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
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Digital Failures
• Always abrupt• Mostly avoidable• Often caused by people• By unanticipated mechanisms• From a direction we are not looking• Can be very expensive & threatening• Almost always reputationally damaging/fatal
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How come, and what caused all this?
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We went from a single transistor in 1947 to 10Bn/chip in 2012 and by 2020 10Tn/chip at a much reduced cost and improved performance at every stage...
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Production transistors are now smaller than the flu virus
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> 10Bn Networked and active devices on the planet and growing exponentially...
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BUT WE are such dimensionally challenged thinkersthat even the simplest of exponential
problems have unlikely outcomes to our way of thinking
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024.....264
One grain of rice on square 1, 2 on square 2, 4 0n 3, 8 on 4, 16 on 5 ....and on the last square more rice than we can grow on the planet in a year!
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N e t w o r k i n g social & business now vital tools
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Big cultural shifts resulted in society and business that see: •Insourcing
•Outsourcing•Crowd sourcing•Soda straw expertise
Transient relationshipsBroader innovationFaster innovationMore start upsHigher risks
•Less loyalty•Multi - careers•Shorter tenure•Self funded training•Continual education•Self funded IT & Support•The rise of the insider threat
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Complexity and non-linearity are here to stay... ...with emergent behaviours...that are in
general impossible to predict
We have to be thinking and acting differently!
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The ratchet of change just went‘clunk’ ...there is no going back !
This is the new norm - the new stability!
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Some things are inherently complex... ...and some things are made complex by us!
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Networks of all kinds naturally exhibit complexity ...of interaction, behaviours and outcomes!
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Networks of all kinds naturally exhibit complexity ...of interaction, behaviours and outcomes!
Interconnection of yeast proteins
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The internet wakes up in the early morning
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Although it is fully understood that layered complexity does not solve the problem, people mostly continue to build more layers in the hope that it might...but it never will!
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So what do we have to do as leaders & managers ?
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Our systems and networks will increasingly surprise us if we
continue on the current trajectory !
Accept that the business world is now a bit of a blur & somewhat out of control...
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Understand that business and commerce has now entered an evolutionary phase...
it is no longer about the biggest and the strongest...it is about the most adaptable !
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Vital
Accept that this is
the key to future
success
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Vital
In Short: Get innovating or get dying !
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VitalThe card companies need to do far more than move from ‘slide to swipe’ !
Incrementalism is reasonably safe but just only staves off death a little longer !
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Whilst giant leaps can be risky!
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A few really do get i t r i gh t and change the world!
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Vital
The consultants standard formula
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Vital
The consultants standard formula
∂
In the past all of this was static and reasonably certain !
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Vital
The consultants standard formula
∂
Today it is all dynamically uncertain !
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Vital
The consultants standard formula
∂
Today it is all dynamically uncertain !
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Vital
The consultants standard formula
∂
Increasing Uncertainty
Today it is all dynamically uncertain !
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Business Plan
No longer a staticdocument handed
down by managers to be implemented
and blindly followed
by those below
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Business PLan
But a dynamicdocument engaging
managers & peoplewith continual feedback
at all levels capable ofadapting to a rapidly
changing environment
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Success demands talented, multi-disciplinary, and very capable, teams...
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Success demands talented & capable multi-disciplinary teams..
Never recruit in your own image
Mono-cultures are
lethal - literally !
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Keep a close eye on the: CompetitionTechnologyInnovationMarkets
And don’t forget:PoliticsFashionTaxationEconomicsGlobal tradeInvestments
...it is no longer all disconnected and independent - it it all linked - and as a result causality is increasingly complex !
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Garner, value, protect and exploit expertise
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No matter what age or sector...
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Invest in data mining, business modelling, and decision support - gut reaction and knee jerk management is now very dangerous !
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Here is why: complexity compounded by greed, ignorance and old management thinking was the cause of all this.......
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Invest in warga
ming - don’t ap
proach any problem
or business decisio
n without due consideration
and testing of all
the options and moves
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You wouldn’t expect a pilot to fly a plane without due training and experience
And running a company is far more complex a task
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Make a virtue of failure
In fact - make it a qualification
If people are not failing from time to time - they are not trying !
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If people are not failing from time to time - they are not trying !
Fail fast but avoid any critical damage...
...and recover even
faster !
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Be prepared to be very different - to challenge convention - to try the new
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Just o
ne ex
ample
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Lockheed SR71 Blackbird
- No proven market- No demand- No project- No funding- No design- No team
- Design & build 18 months- First flight 1964- Over Mach 3.5- Over 80kft- In service 25 years
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We can only......what the future holds...
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IP over WDM...Ethernet...
For sure fortune favours those prepared to take risks!
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B u t t h e y s h o u l d b e calculated and not foolish or unqualified risks!
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All of this needs leadership and constant attention to detail...but not micro-management, just decide on the direction, point the way, and apply the light hand of management!
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And in this context the next wave of change is going to be a challengefor a lot of people& managers !
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