wisdom of crowds and ahp for rural egovernance

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er

c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r

[email protected]

www.crafitti.com

Workshop on Rural e Governance Round Table

September 16-17, 2010New Delhi

A Decision Framework for Rural e-Governance Initiatives combining The Wisdom of Crowds with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

IIPAIndian Institute of Public Administration

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


What have we done …..

• We have asked a group of Experts (Chosen)

– What key attributes should be considered while designing a rural e-Governance Initiative?

• We have asked them in multiple Delphi rounds a simple question for each of the attributes in Yes, No, Can’t say format

September 23, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 2

Results are available in %age terms, such as …..

• 99% of experts believe that Citizen Characteristics should be included while designing a citizen centric rural e-governance Initiative

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er



Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er



Can these %ages be considered as relative importance of each of the attributes?

Obviously not…

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


Information Theory tells us ….

If the likelihood/probability of all alternatives/attributes is uniform (equal likely) – then there is no information.


Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


Do the Experts Really Know?


"... after a few more flashes in the pan, we shall hear very little more of Edison or his electric lamp. Every claim he makes has been tested and proved impracticable." [New York Times,

January 16, 1880]

"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."[Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895]

"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value."[Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieurede Guerre]

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.“[Thomas Watson, chairman IBM, 1943]

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." [Ken Olson, Chairman and founder Digital Equipment

Corp., 1977]

"640K ought to be enough for anybody." [Bill Gates, 1981]

"Fooling around with alternating current is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever." [Thomas Edison, 1889]

"There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will." [Albert Einstein, 1932]

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


WISDOM OF CROWDS


James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds – Why the Many Are Smarter than

the Few

• Collective Intelligence can be brought to bear on a wide variety of problems, and complexity is no bar

– Cognition Problems – have/will have definite solutions (who will win the World cup?)

– Coordination Problems – members of a group to find out how to coordinate their behaviour with each other (how can you drive safely in heavy traffic?)

– Cooperation Problems – challenges of getting self-interested, distrustful people to work together (paying taxes, dealing with pollution)

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


WISDOM OF CROWDS


Individual Experts may not know about the whole; however a crowd knows more than what the individual

knows provided

• The crowd is composed of diverse set of individuals• They are independent of each other

• Paradoxically, the best way for a group to be smart is for each person in itto think and act as independently as possible

James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds – Why the Many Are Smarter than the Few

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


We need….

To include the crowd – rather than thinking about experts

Secondly we need to ask the right question – How much relative importance be given to each attribute rather with respect to the constructs and overall goal …


We propose … The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


• A Proposal

– Combining the Wisdom of Crowds with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)


Estimating the relative importance of each attribute to evaluate /decide ReGI options

Similar to Decision Matrix approach but allows a wider

range of values in comparison of alternatives

Developed by T.L. Saaty (1980)

AHP invites pair-wise qualitative comparisons

The problem is organized as a hierarchy

Bhushan N. and Rai K., Strategic Decision Making – Applying the Analytic

Hierarchy Process, Springer, 2004

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two:

Some Limits on our Capacity for Processing Information

George A. Miller (1956)

Harvard University

First published in Psychological Review, 63, 81-97.

[1] This paper was first read as an Invited Address before the Eastern Psychological Association in Philadelphia on April 15, 1955.

The point seems to be that,

as we add more variables to

the display, we increase the

total capacity, but we

decrease the accuracy for

any particular variable. In

other words, we can make

relatively crude judgments of

several things simultaneously.

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


Why AHP ?

Qualitative Inputs

Pairwise comparisons

Gartner

Reduces Complexity of decision by organizing it in structured

format

Promotes comparison of homogeneous characteristics

Framework to check logical consistency

Facilitates What if Scenarios

It undermines Political Agendas

Facilitates Senior Managers’ buy-in

Sound Mathematical Basis

Consistency Evaluation

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


15

AHP for ReGI

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


Figure 1: The ReGI Design Evaluation Hierarchy

Rural e-Government Initiative (ReGI) Design

Citizen Characteristics (CC)

Goal-Task Characteristics (GTC) (GTC)

Environment Characteristics (EC) (GTC)

e-Technology Characteristics (eTC) (GTC)

Educational background of citizens in the region

Prime occupation of citizens in the region

Subsidiary occupations of citizens in the region

Income slabs of citizens in the region

Social composition of citizens in the region such as schedule tribe/schedule caste/other backward classes

Ability of citizens in the region to access technology related to e-governance initiative (Computer self-efficiency)

Experience of citizens in the region with technology related to ReGI

Tasks Composing the Goal

Priority of the task for the achievement of Goal

Type of the task (Simple Task/Decision Task/ Judgment Task/Problem Task/ Fuzzy Task)

Core task characteristics

Method/technology being currently used to address the task

Time required to accomplish the task using present method/technology

Information generated by the task

Complexity of the task using present method/technology

Prevailing traditional techniques, skills, tools for addressing the governance issue/ task.

Local resources (material) available in the community, to address the governance issue/task.

Prevailing beliefs of the community for the governance issue/ task.

History of all other traditional solutions to address the governance issue/task.

Whether there is continuity between traditional skills and methods and the present method to address the task.

Any other Details of collaborative development of knowledge pertaining to profession (farming, manufacture, forest products, health and nutrition)

Details of indigenous means of reaching out to Community such as community celebrations , festivals and get-togethers Details of health issues, natural disasters endemic to the region

User –controlled interactive interface

Representational Vividness of services offered by use of multimedia techniques as animation/narration

Availability of local content and information

Use of local language

Design of multiple access mechanisms

Social Support to initiative: acceptance/awareness of technology in the region

Political support to initiative from the elected representatives and higher administrative officers of the state/district

Technical support to initiative: Hardware availability, software upgradeability support Details of indigenous means of reaching out to Community such as community celebrations , festivals and get-togethers

Details of health issues, natural disasters endemic to the region

The Initial Hierarchy

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er



Rural e-Government Initiative (ReGI) Design

Citizen

Characteristics

(CC)

Goal-Task

Characteris

tics (GTC)

(GTC)

Environment

Characteristics

(EC)

e-Technology

Characteristics

(eTC)

Computer self -efficiency

Gender

Educational background

Prime occupation

Income slabs

Social composition

Subsidiary occupations

Citizens’ Awareness/Acceptance

Technology Exp.

Age Profile

Community specifications

Sample study of Citizen’s daily routine

Family members

Time required to accomplish the task

Priority of the task

Method/technology

Using present method/technology

Tasks Composing

Information generated by the task

Cost of the task

Time Saved for the task using ReGI

Feedback

Sustainability and Revenue task

Core task characteristics

Importance of task to citizen

Participatory rules for citizens

Re-engineering specifications

Measurability of goal

Type of the task

Analysis of inter/intra dependencies

Task performance

Information gathering strategies

Traditional gov. solutions

Local resources for gov.

Indigenous Communication means

History of traditional gov sol.

health, natural disasters endemic

Collaborative develop. of knowledge

Beliefs for gov.

Continuity b/w traditional & present method

Local Culture & Traditions

Community responses in past situations reaching out to Community such as community celebrations , festivals and get -togethers

Details of health issues, natural disasters endemi c to the region

Availability of local content/information

Use of local language

Cost of Access

Technical support

Physical security & H/W Security issues

Training of stakeholders

Social Support

Data management Attributes

Representational Vividness of services

Design of multiple access mechanisms

User–controlled interactive interface

Available IT Resources

Political support

Maintenance Mechanisms

Feedback about the technology

Regional demand for the technology

Regional

Characteristics

(RC)

Geographical Indicators

Infrastructure Available

Primary Language of Communication

Critical Governance needs of the region

Citizen Groups

Social networks/bonding

Accessibility

Local technical resources available

Bureaucratic setup & relation with gov.

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


Pairwise Comparisons

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


Pairwise Comparisons

√√

√√√ √

√√√

√

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


Relative Weights Derivation and Consistency Evaluation

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


Top Level Radar Plot

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


Similar Process for sub level of each construct

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


Relative Global Weights for All Attributes

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


Consensus Creation with Multiple Experts

(Next Steps)

4.57%

19.17%

9.45%

15.32%

19.23%

14.40%

4.86%

7.68%

5.32%

0.0000 0.1000 0.2000 0.3000 0.4000

Weights

Weights Variation Chart with Normalized Geometric Means

Process/Tools

Documentation

External ConstraintsStability

Complexity

Staffing Constraints

Expertise

Confidential

cr

af

tin

g i

nn

ov

at

ion

to

ge

th

er


http://www.crafitti.com

Crafitti helps in crafting innovation in Business,

Science and Technology.

Your Innovation Think Tank

September 23, 201026

• Navneet Bhushan, Co-crafter

• Founder Director| Crafitti Consulting Pvt Ltd |www.crafitti.com

• +91-9902766961 |+91-80-41688077

• ([email protected])

• 1B-401, Akme Harmony, Amblipura, Sarjapur Outer Ring Road, Bangalore 560037, INDIA

wisdom of crowds and ahp for rural egovernance

Documents