wmo weather climate water1 the global framework for climate services filipe lúcio director gfcs...
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Weather • Climate • Water1
WMO
The Global Framework for Climate Services
Filipe LúcioDirector GFCS Office
www.gfcs-climate.org/
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Weather • Climate • Water2
WMO
The GFCSGoal
Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change, through the development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice on the global, regional and national scale
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Weather • Climate • Water3
WMO
Essential
Full
Advanced
Less than Basic
Basic
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Infrastrucal Capacity Category
# of
Cou
ntrie
s/Te
rrito
ries
Infrastructural Capacities of Countries as of Aug 2010 to provide Basic, Essential,
Full and Advanced Climate Services.
• Many countries lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional capacities to provide high-quality climate services.
Why a Framework for Climate Services?
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Weather • Climate • Water4
WMO
Why a Framework for Climate Services?
• It will enable greater integration and coordination across disciplines, actors and sectors in the climate services agenda for better use of existing infrastructure, technical capabilities (and resources…) for improved outcomes in climate-sensitive sectors
A Framework for Climate Services will build on existing capacities and leverage these through coordination to address shortcomings
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Weather • Climate • Water5
WMO
Concern...
Intensity
Frequency
Heatwaves
Heavy rainfall / Flood
Tropical Cyclones
Coastal Marine Hazards
Strong Wind
Water ResourceWater ResourceManagementManagement
HealthHealth IndustryIndustry
Food Food securitysecurity
TransportTransport
EnergyEnergy
Urban areasUrban areas
Hazards’ intensityand frequencyare increasing
Need for > coping mechanisms
Vulnerability and exposure on the rise !
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Weather • Climate • Water6
WMO
Drought Flooding
Pro
bab
ilit
yP (
x)
X (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, etc.)
Coping range
Within every society, there is a certain capacity
to cope with hazards
Climate variability and change increase
uncertainty, can increase or decrease this coping
range.
Source: Wilhite 2006
What it used to be...
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Weather • Climate • Water7
WMO Climate Prediction Framework
Fo
rec
ast
Le
ad
Tim
eF
ore
ca
st
Le
ad
Tim
e
Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
PredictioPredictionn
Applications
Tra
ns
po
rta
tio
nT
ran
sp
ort
ati
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Tra
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Pro
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Lif
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Pro
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Pro
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f P
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Pro
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Lif
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Pro
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Sp
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Re
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Sta
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En
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En
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En
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Wa
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Ma
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Ag
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hH
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Forecast UncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
Initial Conditions
Boundary Conditions
Minutes
Hours
Days
1 Week
2 Weeks
Months
Seasons
Years
Weather
Climate Variability
Scenarios
AnthropogenicForcing
Climate Change.
Adapted from: NOAAAdapted from: NOAA
Decades
Centuries
Seamless hydrometeorological and climate services
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Weather • Climate • Water8
WMO
GFCS Pillars & Priority Areas
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Weather • Climate • Water9
WMO
Major needs1. Capacity development of professionals and communities on
production and effective application of climate services
2. Improved, standardized, and quality controlled sector monitoring data that is compatible with environmental and climate information;
3. Monitoring and evaluation of the appropriate, effective, and cost-effective use of climate information for sector decisions;
4. Research and prediction of sector impacts associated with climate variability and climate change, in collaboration with the climate research community;
5. Development and deployment of early warning systems appropriate to the sector and user communities;
6. Sustainable financial and technical support;
7. Better collaboration with the climate community for interdisciplinary policy, practice and research.
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Weather • Climate • Water10
WMO
GFCS implementation priorities
• Capacity development:– Linking climate service users and providers. – Developing national capacity in developing countries.
– Strengthening regional climate capabilities. • High-profile projects to address gaps across
pillars and priority areas;• Observations and data recovery in data sparse
areas;• Partnerships across sectors and disciplines for
addressing gaps and priorities; • Governance, leadership and management
capacity to take the Framework forward.
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Weather • Climate • Water11
WMO
11
Domains of operation of GFCS
Global
Regional
National
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Weather • Climate • Water12
WMO
12
Domains of operation of GFCSGlobal Level (GPC)• Produce global
climate prediction products
• Coordinate and support data exchange, major capacity building initiatives
• Establish and maintain standards and protocols
Global
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Weather • Climate • Water13
WMO
13
Domains of operation of GFCS
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Weather • Climate • Water14
WMO
14
Domains of operation of GFCSRegional Level (RCC)• Support multilateral efforts to
address regional needs– Regional policy, data
exchange, infrastructure dev, research, training at service provision
– AMCOMET
• RCOF – Improved regional research;
– Coordinated regional training;
– Support to regional policy
Global
Regional
Critical for capacity building requiring resources beyond a single nation
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Weather • Climate • Water15
WMO
WMO RCC Status Worldwide
Designated RCC-Networks
RCC-Networks in Demo Phase
BCCTCC
NEACC
ICPAC
ACMAD
CIIFEN
RCCs in Demonstration Phase
RCCs Proposed
RCC-Networks Proposed
SADC-CSC
Designated RCCs
North America Initiative
AGRRHYMET
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Weather • Climate • Water16
WMO
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Domains of operation of GFCSNational Level (NCC)• Ensure access to
data and knowledge products
• Tailor information to user requirements
• Ensure effective routine use of information
• Develop sustainable capacities
Regional
Regional
National
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Weather • Climate • Water17
WMO
Early implementation
Pilot projects in Burkina Belize, Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, Senegal, South
Regional workshops for the most vulnerable countries
South East Asia, Caribbean, SWPI (Cook Islands, 31st Mar-4 April), SEE (TBD), Latin America (28 Juy – 1 Aug, Costa Rica)
Joint project offices• WHO/WMO• GWP/WMO• WFP/WMO
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Weather • Climate • Water18
WMO
GFCS Adaptation Programme in Africa
Focus Countries• Tanzania and Malawi
• Programme runs for 3 years
• Total budget of USD 10m
• Funded by
Partners
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Weather • Climate • Water19
WMO
• Contribution to the GFCS for supporting projects and IBCS, including substructures;
• Selection of activities from the Implementation Plan and Compendium of GFCS Projects for Implementation;
• Designation of activities as contributing to the GFCS if they satisfy the set of criteria
Contribution Modalities
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Weather • Climate • Water20
WMO
Lessons learned from regional workshops and national consultations
Regional
• Importance of research and science
• Role of Regional Climate Outlook Forums
• Maximization of limited resources through regional approach
• Exploring gaps, capacity development, and strategies for engaging stakeholders
National
• Systematic dialogue with users
• Understanding in-country capabilities
• Identification of data and observation requirements
• Identification of priority research questions
• Building sector-specific capacities
• Leveraging enabling factors
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Weather • Climate • Water21
WMO
10 Pre-requisites
1) Provide a strong institutional anchorage for the Framework for Climate Services
2) Meet the demand for tailored climate service provision in the priority climate-sensitive sectors in the country (Agriculture & Food security, Health, Disaster Risk Management, Construction/Infrastructure/ Transport sector, etc.)
3) Build the capacity of the NHMS and other technical services to jointly elaborate salient climate products and services, building on pluri-disciplinary knowledge and expertise from each sector
4) Improve the Communication / widespread distribution of Climate Services
5) Diversify communication channels, use innovative channels to broadcast (aside from TV)
6) Modernize and increase the density of the national hydro-meteorological observing network, improving capacity to meet end-user needs
7) Improve collaborative climate research, towards more salient end-user driven climate research outputs
8) Develop and strengthen the capacity of end-users to further appropriate and utilize climate services
9) Sustain the newly defined Framework for Climate Services at the national level
10) Engage all national stakeholders involved in the production, interpretation, communication and utilization of climate services in a national dialogue around climate service provision, to identify country needs and charter a course for the provision of user-tailored climate services at the national and sub-national levels.
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Weather • Climate • Water22
WMO
• From mitigation to mitigation and adaptation
• From few to many customers/users/stakeholders
• Global century scenarios to regional predictions, days to decades ahead
• Climate change to climate change and climate variability
• Broad climate to characteristics of weather including extremes and impacts
• Operational delivery – regularly updated monitoring, forecasts, products & services
Climate Services: a revolution in the application of climate science
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Weather • Climate • Water23
WMO
Benefits
– Better water resources management• as inputs to hydrological characterisation (e.g. precipitation, evaporation, etc)
• in planning, design, development and operation of water supplies
• in flood and floodplain management and control
• design and operation of irrigation and drainage systems;
• for studies associated with power generation, fisheries an conservation, navigation and recreation.
– Improved disaster risk management• Planning and emergency preparedness and response to extreme events
• Siting of critical infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, etc
– Improved support to planning and operations in the health sector• Risk Assessment/health system risk management
• Epidemiological Surveillance & environmental Monitoring
• Health Services (heat health warning systems, malaria waning system, etc…)
– Improved agricultural planning and management• Better drought and flood management
• Improved food security
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Weather • Climate • Water24
WMO
Summing-up
3 closely-related issues: Adaptation to climate
variability and change Disaster risk reduction Sustainable development &
societal benefits
Requirements: Reinforcing developing
countries' adaptive capabilities
Multidisciplinary partnerships across all sectors
Capacity building to be seen as an investment, not an expenditure
A key opportunity: A Global Framework for
Climate Services
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Weather • Climate • Water25
WMO
• Management Commitee (15 and 17, 2014)
• IBCS-2 (10 – 14 Nov 2014)– Review of progress – Establishment of Technical Committee
GFCS Docs available at:
http://gfcs.wmo.int/final-implementation-plan
Important events
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Weather • Climate • Water26
WMO
Thank you for your attention
www.gfcs-climate.org/