work and poverty in ireland: an analysis of silc 2004-2010 · how significant is in-work poverty in...
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Work and Poverty in Ireland: an Analysis of SILC 2004-2010
Dorothy Watson, Bertrand Maître,
Chris Whelan
"Work and Poverty –
National and EU Perspectives"
11 December 2012
Motivation
“.... having a job remains the best safeguard against poverty and social exclusion [but] it does not prevent it. Raising employment rates is good but a significant share of adult Europeans at risk of poverty or social exclusion are working”.
DG Employment, 2011, Employment and Social Developments in Europe 2011.
Two Key Indicators
Measure Base and Measurement
Household Joblessness (Very Low Work Intensity)
Working-age adults spend less than one fifth of available time in employment Base: Persons age 0 to 59 Rate High in Ireland compared to EU
Two Key Indicators
Measure Base and Measurement
Household Joblessness (Very Low Work Intensity)
Working-age adults spend less than one fifth of available time in employment Base: Persons age 0 to 59 Rate High in Ireland compared to EU
In-work poverty (individual)
Working age adult in employment but living in a poor household Base: Persons in employment age 18 to 59 Rate Similar in Ireland to EU average
Questions Addressed
1. Why is the rate of household joblessness so high in Ireland, compared to other EU countries?
2. What impact has the recession had on household work patterns?
3. What are the characteristics of jobless households?
4. Has the relationship between joblessness and poverty changed over time?
5. How significant is in-work poverty in Ireland and
6. What are the characteristics of the in-work poor?
1. Why is the rate of Household Joblessness
so high in Ireland?
Percentage Household Joblessness: Ireland, UK and EU
EU-SILC. % persons age 0-59 in VLWI households
11
23
13
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EU15 Ireland EU27 UK
All Adults 18-59, PES – EU-SILC 2009
12
13
5
8
2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
SE DK NL FI FR DE AT EU15 LU PT BE GR ES IT IE
Unemployed Home duties Ill/Disability
Student etc. Other inactive & retired
% jobless adults age 18-59 living with an employed adult, EU-SILC 2009
51
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
DK SE FI IE BE DE EU15 NL FR AT ES IT GR PT LU
% adults in jobless households living with children, EU-SILC 2009
56
10
20
30
40
50
60
GR NL DK FI AT DE LU IT EU15 SE BE PT FR ES IE
2. What impact has the recession had on household
work patterns?
Couple Work Patterns, 2004-2010 Males and Females in Couple households
80%
64%
4% 8%
16%
28%
33% 35%
25% 22%
42% 43%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2004 2007 2010
Male work FT
Male Work PT
Male Not at work
Female Work FT
Female Work PT
Female Not at work
3. What are the Risk factors for Household Joblessness?
Odds of Very Low Work Intensity, 2004-2010
1.7
2.5
3.4
1.5
1.6
2.0
4.0
4.3
1.3
2.2
2.2
6.2
0.4
2.4
2.3
2.2
0.30 3.00 30.00
Under age 5 vs. 35-44
Age 55-59 vs. 35-44
Disability (adult) vs. none
Single vs. married
Widowed vs. married
Divorced/separated vs. married
Lives alone vs. adults+child
Lone parent vs adults+ children
Number children
No Educ quals vs. Upper 2nd level
Unskilled vs. Manager/Profess.
Never worked vs. Manager/Profess.
Purchasing vs. home owner
Loc Auth Renter vs. home owner
Priv Renter vs. home owner
Rent free vs. home owner
Profile of those in VLWI households in 2010
In 2010
65% householder has less than full 2nd level education
36% are children
18% are adults with a disability
41% some adult with a disability in the household
21% Lone Parent
47% Two adults with children
4. Has the relationship between household joblessness and
poverty changed over time?
Poverty in Jobless Households (2004-2010) including social transfers and before social transfers
70%
34%
96% 97%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2004 2007 2010
IncludingsocialTransfers
BeforeSocialTransfers
Basic Deprivation in Jobless Households, 2004-2010
51%
51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
5. How significant is in-work poverty in Ireland
Poverty in and out of work (Individual, age 18-59; % of individuals), 2004-2010
62% 63% 53%
4% 4%
4%
22% 24% 32%
11% 9% 10%
7% 8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2007 2010
Not in work, poor
Not in work, not poor
In work, poor
In work, not poor
In-Work Poverty Rate
6. What are the characteristics of the in-work
poor?
Odds of In-Work Poverty, 2004-2010 0.8
1.6
1.8
1.3
1.7
0.6
1.4
1.9
1.4
6.2
1.6
2.5
2.0
0.6
1.9
1.6
0.8
0.3 3.0 30.0
Female vs. male
Age 45-54 vs. 35-44
Age 55-59 vs. 35-44
Single vs. married
Divorced/separated vs. married
All adult HH vs. adults+child
Number of children
No Educ quals vs. Upper 2nd level
Lower 2nd vs. Upper 2nd level
Self-employed vs. Manager/Profess.
Tech, lo. sales/serv.vs. Manag./Profess.
Unskilled vs. Manager/Profess.
Part-time work vs. full-time
Purchaser vs. home owner
Local Auth. Renter vs. home owner
Private renter vs. home owner
2007 vs. 2004
Conclusions (1)
Household Joblessness adds value to the understanding of risk factors for social exclusion Broader than unemployment (considers other inactive statuses) Considers work in total household context
Adults in jobless households face more severe & complex barriers to
work They have lower levels of education Also challenges in terms of disability, Household composition (lone parenthood, larger number of children)
Change over time in association with income poverty
Weakening association since 2004, due to effectiveness of social transfers But situation with respect to deprivation has not changed
Conclusions (2)
In-work poverty –
Fewer people affected by in-work poverty than by
household joblessness
Not high by European standards
Slight increase with recession
Strong association with self-employment
Not especially disadvantaged in terms of education, family structure
Policy Implications
Household joblessness an important risk factor for social exclusion (acknowledged in new social targets)
Social transfers have been very important in moving jobless households above 60% poverty threshold – less impact at 70% threshold and on deprivation
Implications for labour market activation Broader population – more disadvantaged, more complex needs Need for targeting on training and employment support Other supports: childcare, support for carers, people with
disability
Careful planning of pathway to work Rate at which social welfare benefits withdrawn Guard against inadvertent increase in in-work poverty
Thank you
Two Key Indicators
Measure Base and Measurement
Household Joblessness (Very Low Work Intensity)
Base population: Age 0-59 Measure: Proportion of available person months over past year spent at work by working age adults; adjusting for hours worked. Excluded: adults age 60+; households with no working-age adults Very Low Work Intensity (<20%) is a key social exclusion indicator. Rate High in Ireland compared to EU
In-work poverty (individual)
Base: Person aged 18-59 in employment Measure: Poverty status of persons of working age in employment Excludes: Persons not of working age; persons not at work