working party on forest economics and statistics 26 th session, 15-17 march 2004, geneva item 3....

Working Party on Forest Economics and Statistics

26th Session, 15-17 March 2004, Geneva

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Item 3. Guidance of Work Area 1Markets and Statistics

ByEd Pepke

Forest Products Marketing Specialist

Document TIM/EFC/WP.2/2004/3



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Key points for consideration

• Policy relevance of market-related work

• Scheduling outputs

• Disseminating price info

• Country info via websites

• Priorities and resources

• Mandate of Team of Specialists



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Overarching questions

• Do present activities support a useful and policy relevant discussion on market and trade issues?

• Which outputs need to be given priority and which ones may be stopped? Which ones only published electronically?



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Specific questions--1

• Should new Forest Products Annual Market Analysis (FPAMA) be repeated in 2004?

• Is collection and dissemination of forest products prices information satisfactory?

• How should country specific information be presented on the TC/EFC and FAO websites for maximum synergies?

TC = Timber CommitteeEFC = European Forestry Commission



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• Is proposed mandate for the UNECE/FAO Team of Specialists on Forest Products Markets and Marketing reflect the strategic priorities?

• Could your country loan expertise to the Timber Branch in 2004?



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Outcomes of discussions

1. Approve the detailed plan for Work Area 1 activities (annex 1)

2. Recommend approval by the Bureaux of the TC and EFC of the proposed terms of reference of the Team of Specialists on Forest Products Markets and Marketing (annex 2)

3. Guidance on specific questions



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Review of WPFES recommendations in 2003

(Annex 4 of document)



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1. Change in scope and timing of major outputs

1. Policy issues should be linked to market aspects

2. Separate publication or special chapter on an important policy-related issue

3. Reducing length of current analyses

4. Merging 1. FPAMR and 2. post-TC forecasting Bulletin

1. Considered consistently and covered as appropriate

2. Special chapter on policy-related issues in FPAMA; Wood energy was discussed at a policy forum

3. 150 vs 2254. 1 + 2 = FPAMA



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1. Change in scope and timing of major outputs

5. Continue producing a market analysis as the basis of the TC Market Discussions

6. Disseminate outputs via TC website. Notify users via listserver and eventually an automated “webminder”

5. Draft market analysis was uploaded to website in August

6. Outputs uploaded to the TC/EFC website when completed. Users notified through direct e-mail announcements and listservers. The site does not yet have a webminder.



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FPAMReview FPAMAnalysisContent changes

• 2001-2002 to 2002-2004 with forecasts• Policy orientation throughout• New policy chapter• Statistical tables shifted to electronic annex• Special chapters omitted

– No current market issue chapter– No UNECE region country focus chapter– No UNECE region trading partner chapter

• Maintained same statistics-based chapters• Maintained same non-statistics based chapters



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FPAMReview FPAMAnalysisProduction changes

• 2 stage production– Draft based on statistics before TC Market

Discussions on website only in August– Final with forecasts after TCMDs on website

in December and submitted for printing and translation in December (still not available in print)

• Technical reviews x 2• Copy editing and proofreading x 2• Graphics with updating in October• Layout not quite twice as time consuming



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FPAMReview FPAMAnalysisWhat does the reader see?

• New policy chapter• No former special chapters• Less statistics tables• Shorter chapters

– Part 1 based on statistics– Part 2 based on forecasts, country market

statements, TC Market Discussions• Shorter: 155 vs. 225 pages



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FPAMReview FPAMAnalysis

But do the readers

like what they see?



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2. Organisation of the annual Timber Committee Market Discussions

1. Maintain current 1½ days devoted to market sector discussions to enable adequate discussion time

2. Continuing to collect, analyse, discuss and disseminate market forecasts, a key output

1. 2003 were 1½ days, preceded by a half-day policy forum on “Forests, wood and energy”

2. 32 countries submitted responses to the TC (forecasting) Questionnaire



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Replies to TC Questionnaire

Replies to Timber Committee

05

10

152025303540

455055

2000 2001 2002 2003

# o

f co

un

trie

s re

ply

ing

TC1 - forecastroundwood

TC2 - forecastproducts

Market Statements



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Percentage completion of TC Questionnaire

Extent of reply - Timber Committee

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2001 2002 2003

% o

f ce

lls f

illed

TC1 (21)

TC2 (45)



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Replies to Joint Forest Sector Questionnaire

Replies to JFSQ

05

101520

2530

354045

5055

2000 2001 2002 2003

# o

f co

un

trie

s re

ply

ing

JQ1 - Production

JQ2 - Trade

SP1 - secondary prod

ECE1 -species



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Percentage completion of JFSQ

Extent of reply - JFSQ

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2001 2002 2003

% o

f ce

lls f

illed JQ1 (66)

JQ2 (216)

SP1 (42)

ECE1 (88)



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3. Correlate closer country market statements and discussions

4. Bring more industry representation

5. Including policy dimensions and requesting countries to report on these in their country market statements

3. Sector introductions by the secretariat and members of the Team of Specialists incorporated relevant info from statements

4. Over 100 participants at the TC Market Discussions, ~1/3 industry representation

5. Requested policy dimensions in country market statements: results mixed



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6. Maintain current market sectors in the discussions

7. Request comments on government procurement policies as a market driver for certified forest products

6. Same sectors included in 2003, but 2004 shortened schedule to 1 day

7. Report format requested info, but few countries contributed



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3. Price statistics

1. Update and disseminate timber price statistics

2. “Timber Price Information Collection and Dissemination” proposal by EFI accepted

3. Maintain and update regularly price series, provided a satisfactory list of series is produced

1. Prices updated for market analyses. Disseminated in FPAMA. Consultant produced interface for TC/EFC website.

2. EFI requested Eurostat funds

3. Only series for internal analyses maintained



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4. Market information system

1. Implement to the extent of resources

2. Working with FAO Forestry Department to bring out each site’s advantages

3. Establishing a task force for MIS development

4. Continue improving dissemination via an interactive system

5. Focus on TC’s comparative advantages

1-5. Given low priority and no resources.



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5. UNECE/FAO Team of Specialists on Forest Products Markets and Marketing

1. Mandate prolonged through October 2004

2. literature review on forest law enforcement governance and trade. Present at TC Market Discussions

3. Collect info on government procurement policies for certified forest products

4. Measure effectiveness of market-related publications. Present findings to WPFES.

1. Continued work. Proposes mandate extension through October 2008

2. Presented discussion paper at the TC Market Discussions. Workshop in 2004

3. Contributions from few country market statements synthesized for presentation on CFP markets

4. “UNECE/FAO Forest Products Market-Related Outputs. An evaluation by the UNECE/FAO Team of Specialists on Forest Products Markets and Marketing”



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UNECE/FAO Forest Products Market-Related Outputs. An evaluation by the Team of

Specialists

• More than half of recommendations for changes to TC and EFC market-related outputs made by the Subgroup were agreed on without objection

• A few dissensions• Concerns expressed about new Forest Products

Annual Market Analysis– “Authoritative” nature of the forecast data– Different forecasting methods used by

countries– Availability of resources– Timeliness in issuing a final publication



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Specialists

• Team of Specialists recommends updating the questionnaire, distributing it to a wider audience of TC, EFC and Working Party delegates and presenting the results to the Working Party session in 2005

• Methodology (covered in report)• Results listed next (detail covered in report)• Conclusion (detail covered in report)

– Request authorisation from WPFES to conduct wider survey (WPFES, heads TC and EFC)

– Present results to WPFES in 2005



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Specialists12 Resulting Recommendations

1. “Forest Products Markets: Prospects for 200x” be discontinued, combined into FPAMA along with country market statements

2. New (2003) schedule for FPAMA3. “Forest Products Prices” only on website4. “Forest Products Statistics” only on website5. FPAMA to include forecasts 6. “Forest Products Trade Flow Data”

discontinued



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Specialists 12 Resulting Recommendations

7. Geneva Timber and Forest Study Papersa. High quality research reportsb. Secretariat to establish standard procedural

guidelines (topics, authors, peer review, technical quality control)

8. Geneva Timber and Forest Discussion Papersa. Technical papersb. Secretariat to establish standard procedural

guidelines (topics, authors, quality, reviews)



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Specialists 12 Resulting Recommendations

9. TIMBER database on TC/EFC website in format easier to read, download and update

10. Proposed Market Info System website to be user-friendly, up-to-date, with links to further info

11. Authors of FPAMA serve terms of 4 years. Author selection guidelines to be established

12. Improve forecasting methods among country correspondents for TCQ and market statements



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Status of Timber Bulletin(Annex 3)



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Timber Bulletin printing status

Title (2003) Last printing

Status

1 F.P. Prices 2000 Cancelled

2 F.P. Statistics 2001 Provisional on website

3 F.P. Annual Market Analysis

2002 On website. Submitted

4 Forest Fire Statistics 2002 On website

5 F.P. Trade Flows 2002 On website. Cancelled

6 F.P. Markets: Prospects for 2004

2002 On website. Submitted



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UNECE/FAOTeam of Specialists on

Forest Products Markets and Marketing



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Team’s mandate (annex 2)

• Provide a forum for discussion of forest products marketing in the UNECE region

• Contribute to the Committee's annual market discussions and thereby advise the TC and EFC on forest products market developments

• Advise on implementation of Work Area 1, focusing on its products and publications and undertaking studies as appropriate

• Provide assistance in marketing in the UNECE region, especially to central and eastern European countries, through information collection, analysis and dissemination, including workshops.



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Team’s terms of reference

• Approved by office holders of the TC and EFC• Guided by Working Party of Forest

Economics and Statistics• Report annually to the Working Party• Proposed extension until October 2008• (Note, proposed extended terms of

reference in annex 2 has unchanged mandate from 2003, but has updated activities for 2004+, and of course extended duration until 2008)



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Team’s mandate

• Approved by office holders of the TC and EFC

• Guided by Working Party of Forest Economics and Statistics

• Report annually to the Working Party• Proposed extension until October 2008.



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“UNECE/FAO Team of Specialists on Forest Products Markets and Marketing. Support,

Contributions, Accomplishments and Future Planned Activities. Annual report to the FAO/UNECE Working Party on Forest

Economics and Statistics”

• Contributions and Support to the Timber Committee• Additional Contributions and Supporting Activities• Work in Progress and Future Activities• Summary and Conclusions



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Team’s outputs

• Annual TC Market Discussions– Speakers, contribution to discussions– Paper on market effects of illegal logging

• Forest Products Annual Market Analyses– Authors on certified forest products,

panels, paper & pulp, sawnwood, value-added, etc.

– Guidance• Evaluation of market-related outputs• Team website for info sharing• EFSOS reviews



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Team’s ongoing work

• Contributing to FPAMA• TC Market Discussions• Causes and extent of illegal logging• Effectiveness of wood promotion• Market-related outputs—broader evaluation• Assistance to central and eastern European

countries• Bio-fuels info collection. Possible workshop• Assessment of market info needs



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6. Proposals for additional resources

1. Associate professional officer in forest products marketing in central and eastern European countries (CEECs)

2. Forest Sector Marketing Development proposal

1. New APO expected June 2004 to work on this programme

2. Proposal presented to WPFES in 2003. Being revised by secretariat. Reconsidering partners, including CEECs. Approach donors in 2004.



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7. Changes in Timber Bulletin titles

1. “Forest products annual market review” becomes “Forest products annual market analysis”

2. “Forest products markets for 200x and prospects for 200y” becomes “Forest Products Markets: Prospects for 200y”

1. FPAMReview became FPAMA

2. “Forest products markets for 200x and prospects for 200y” became “Forest Products Markets: Prospects for 200y”



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8. Market-related Geneva Timber and Forest Discussion Papers

(for consideration by WPFES)

1. “Serbia’s forest products markets”

2. “China’s forest products markets”

3. “Market effects of wood energy policies”

4. “Forest certification update for the UNECE region, 2003”

1. Draft completed July 2003. In editing.

2. Postponed—no resources

3. “Forests, wood and energy: Policy interactions. In editing.

4. Reconsidered mid 2003. Survey launched November, closed January. In analysis by consultant.



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5. “Trends in tropical timber trade, 2002-2003”

6. “Value-added wood products markets, 2001-2003”

5. In printing

6. In printing

8. Market-related Geneva Timber and Forest Discussion Papers

(for consideration by WPFES)



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• First in 1997 from Forest Communicators Network

• Print and website• Each country

Forest resources Forest products

markets Link to FCN for

more info• Popular, valuable site• Not maintained

• Replaced on TC/EFC website by link to FAO Forestry Department country info

• Secretariats exploring synergies to bring more country-specific info from TC/EFC site to both sites, including link to FCN for more info

9. Country fact sheets(for consideration by WPFES)



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Continuing forward in reverse order…

recap of presentation thus far• Annex 4. Review of 2003 decisions and

their status• Annex 3.• Annex 2.• Annex 1.



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their status• Annex 3. Timber Bulletin status• Annex 2.• Annex 1.



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their status• Annex 3. Timber Bulletin status• Annex 2. Mandate extension of Team of

Specialists• Annex 1.



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their status• Annex 3. Timber Bulletin status• Annex 2. Mandate extension of Team of

Specialists• Annex 1. Programme of work



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WA 1. Programme of work

1. Statistics on production, trade and prices2. Market analyses3. Capacity building for CEECs in marketing4. Monitoring markets for certified forest

products5. Forest fire statistics6. Team of specialists, info network



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1.1 Statistics on production, trade and prices

• Description– Collect and disseminate through

national correspondents– Improve quality and coverage– Collect secondary data as necessary

• Outputs– Timber Bulletin issues– TIMBER database, FAOSTAT database– Website info



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1.2 Market analyses

• Description– Analyse markets and publish annually– Publish forecasts

• Outputs– Timber Bulletin issues– Geneva Timber and Forest Discussion

Papers– Note: Special chapters in FPAMA cut in

2003



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1.3 Capacity building for CEECs in marketing

• Description– Conduct workshops

• Outputs– Workshops (Last in 2000. Seeking

funds via “Forest Sector Marketing Development” proposal.)

– New Junior/Associate/Loaned Professional Officer expected June 2004 to work on this programme



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1.4 Monitoring markets for certified forest products

• Description– Monitor, analyse and disseminate info– Primary data: Informal network of officially-

nominated country correspondents on certification and certified forest products

• Outputs– TC Market Discussions– Chapter in FPAMA– Website with info and links– DP: “Forest certification update for the

UNECE region”. 2003 vs. 2004. Future?



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1.5 Forest fire statistics

• Description– Collect through national

correspondents– Disseminate

• Outputs– Database– Timber Bulletin, issue 4– Website



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1.6 Teams of specialists, info network

• Description– Support above activities– Provide advice

• Outputs– Studies by team(s)– Meetings and activities– National correspondents meetings (last in

2001); proposed capacity building for CIS (September 2004?) and for eastern and central Asia (June 2004)



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After discussion on former subjects,Next Work Area 1 presentations

• New price website by Ms. Noora Kettunen, Consultant for Timber Branch

• Italian removals questionnaire by Mr. Antonio Macri, National Institute of Statistics, Italy



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Outcomes of discussions (as previously stated)

1. Approve the detailed plan for Work Area 1 activities (annex 1)

2. Recommend approval by the Bureaux of the TC and EFC of the proposed terms of reference of the Team of Specialists on Forest Products Markets and Marketing (annex 2)

3. Guidance on specific questions



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Overarching questions

• Do present activities support a useful and policy relevant discussion on market and trade issues?

• Which outputs need to be given priority and which ones may be stopped? Which ones only published electronically?



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• Should new Forest Products Annual Market Analysis (FPAMA) be repeated in 2004?

• Is collection and dissemination of forest products prices information satisfactory?

• How should country specific information be presented on the TC/EFC and FAO websites for maximum synergies?



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• Is proposed mandate for the UNECE/FAO Team of Specialists on Forest Products Markets and Marketing reflect the strategic priorities?

• Could your country loan expertise to the Timber Branch in 2004?



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Discussion



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Next Work Area 1 presentations

• New price website by Ms. Noora Kettunen, consultant

• Italian removals questionnaire by Mr. Antonio Macri, National Institute of Statistics, Italy

working party on forest economics and statistics 26 th session, 15-17 march 2004, geneva item 3....

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