workshop on modelling urban and regional measures for improved … · workshop on modelling urban...
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Workshop on modelling urban and regional measures for improved air
quality UTRECHT 15 -16 February 2017
UNECE Air Convention - Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling (TFIAM)
EU- Forum for Air Quality Modelling (FAIRMODE)
Introduction Rob Maas - co-chair TFIAM
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TFIAM
Efficiency of national & International actions
Harmonisation of practices Quality Assurance & robustness Tools to assess effectiveness of local actions
Why a joint TFIAM / FAIRMODE workshop?
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Questions
1. Which high-impact local/regional measures are available to reduce concentrations of particulate matter or NO2?
2. Which tools are available to assess the health benefits of local/regional measures?
3. How cost-effective are local/regional measures compared to additional national/European measures?
4. What are the opportunities and barriers for a multi-level approach to control measures? How to define an optimal strategy “from local to global scale”?
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Focus on hotspots: the NECD will not guarantee AQLVs everywhere
Source: IIASA NO2
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Focus on health: majority of EU-population is exposed to
concentrations above WHO guideline levels
EU - AQLV WHO – AQG = long term target
Policy shift from a focus on exceedances (hotspots) towards optimizing health benefits?
Source: EEA
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REVISED GOTHENBURG PROTOCOL & NECD: Loss in average life expectancy due to PM-exposure - in months
(source IIASA)
2005 2030-NECD 2030-opt 2030-mfr
Belgium 10.2 5.9 5.0 4.5 Denmark 6.4 3.5 3.0 2.7 France 8.8 4.4 3.8 3.2 Germany 7.9 4.8 4.0 3.6 Luxemburg 9.2 5.2 4.4 3.9 Netherlands 8.8 5.0 4.3 4.0 UK 5.8 3.7 2.9 2.6
EU-28 8.5 5.0 4.1 3.6
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Significant potential for health improvement
Source: Aphekom project
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Source: IIASA, TSAP-report #12
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Ammonia is a transboundary issue
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REVISED GOTHENBURG PROTOCOL & NECD Ammonia emission reductions NECD (5-7-2016)
and abatement potential (IIASA)
NH3 emission reduction percentages
level 2005 2012 2020-
2029 2030-NECD 2030-opt 2030-mfr
Belgium 73 1 2 13 16 19 Denmark 73 13 24 24 37 47 France 675 1 4 13 29 37 Germany 593 5 5 29 39 50 Luxemburg 6 0 1 22 24 27 Netherlands 146 13 13 21 25 25 United Kingdom 308 8 8 16 21 22 EU-28 3982 6 6 19 27 35
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Actions to meet WHO guideline levels
Continental 1. Ensure Euro-6 standards work in reality 2. Implement climate & energy targets 3. Set emission-standards for e.g. wood burning large cattle farms, ships, … National 1. Ratify and enforce international agreements 2. Implement climate and energy policies 3. Control on maintenance of Euro-6 vehicles 4. Scrapping schemes for old vehicles
Cities 1. Low emission zones 2. Stimulate electric vehicles 3. Set speed limits 4. Healthy city design/integrated mobility plan 5. Inform and involve the people
< 2050 : WHO-guidelines are feasible with climate AND additional air measures
http://www.unece.org/index.php?id=42861&L=0
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Low emission zone Utrecht - June 2015
#
TNO-conclusion: • Significant decline in concentration of black carbon • Effect on NO2 unclear
Moreover in Utrecht: Average bicycle use: 616km/person/year 50% of trips (< 5km) by bike Social benefits: € 250 mn/yr
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Alternative facts (citizen science)
Source: http://utrechtmilieu.nl/meetnet/ https://www.duic.nl/algemeen/duic-in-data-milieuzone-effect-of-niet-wij-zochten-het-uit/
Running annual average NO2 measurements, Utrecht
Index running annual average , Dec 2011 = 100
Samplers in LEZ
Samplers on LEZ border
Samplers outside LEZ
Samplers in LEZ
Samplers on LEZ border
Samplers outside LEZ
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Future emission factors
Source: International Council for Clean Transportation - ICCT
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Future EU28 car fleet 2015-2030
http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_real-world-NOX-RDE-2015-2030_dec2016.pdf
+12% -45% -70%
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Long term impact LEZ on NOx: only with strict diesel RDE-standards
http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_real-world-NOX-RDE-2015-2030_dec2016.pdf
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Alternative futures • Carbon neutral cars • Shift to slow modes • Shift to public transport
(FP7 - Pathways project) Source: Imperial College
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Source: Global Burden of Disease Database
contribution in %
Challenge: Combine air policies and promotion of healthy life styles
Synergy : air and health policy
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Coherent multilevel strategies for healthy urban living
2012 PM2,5 µg/m3 2 15 27 35
EU instruments: National emission ceilings Emission standards
National instruments: e.g. taxes & subsidies infrastructure
Local instruments: permits, projects low emission zones
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Challenges for this meeting
• Who can design a plan with the largest reduction in average exposure of the urban population?
• What will be the financial and legal barriers to implement such a plan?
• How can we improve local-national-international exchange of knowledge and experiences?