world air cargo forecast - airports council · pdf filecopyright © 2015 boeing. all...
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Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or
guarantee of performance.
Russell Tom
Regional Director, Cargo Marketing
Boeing Commercial Airplanes
January 22, 2015
World Air Cargo Forecast
2014 / 2015
The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and are to be used for general information
purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance.
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Agenda
Current state of the world air cargo market
Long-term cargo (2013-2033) market forecast
Freighter fleet forecast (2013-2033)
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World air cargo traffic grew 4.1% in November 2014
Mo
nth
ly P
erc
en
tag
e C
ha
ng
e o
ve
r P
rio
r Y
ea
r World air cargo traffic growth has been steadily
recovering since 2Q 2013 Updated: 01/11/15
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Mo. % Change - History
12-Mo. Avg. History
Sources: IATA Carrier Tracker (industry international scheduled freight) and A4A US domestic cargo traffic.
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
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• Economic growth anemic since
2011
• Centered in US, Europe –
key consumer, export
markets
• Weak trade growth,
particularly in air cargo
commodities
• Economic, trade growth now
improving led by US
Forecast
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Long-term
average
Real year-over-year GDP growth (%)
Source: IHS Economics
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Ja
n
Feb
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
RT
Ks
(b
illi
on
s)
2009 2010 2013 2014 Air cargo growth stalled in mid-2011
– Weak economy
– Trade growth slowed
– Economic uncertainty
Growth resumed mid-2013 as the
world economy strengthened
Continued improvement expected in
2015
‒ 4.1% Nov 2014 vs Nov 2013
‒ 4.4% Nov 2014 YTD
Sources: IATA Carrier Tracker (Industry International Scheduled Freight) &
IATA US Domestic Cargo Traffic account for 87.7% of the world RTKs.
Air cargo demand has been recovering
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(500,000)
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Africa AsiaPacific
PRCCarriers
Europe ExpressCarriers
LatinAmerica
MiddleEast
NorthAmerica
November 2014 year-to-date
Sources: IATA Carrier Tracker (Industry international scheduled freight), A4A US domestic cargo traffic, and Boeing analysis
14.5% 0.8%
(1.5%)
7.8%
11.1%
0.6%
4.0%
19.9%
Variance of Air Cargo RTKs flown by carrier region, 2014 versus 2013
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0
50
100
150
200
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
North America Middle East
Latin America Europe
CIS Asia
Africa
RTKs, billions
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0
5
10
15
20
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
North America Middle East
Latin America Europe
CIS Asia
Africa
RTKs, billions
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0
50
100
150
200
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
International express
International freight and mail
RTKs, billions
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0
10
20
30
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
RTKs, billions
Express carriers
Charter freight
Scheduled freight
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Trucking and Air Cargo Traffic Are Recovering at a Slow Rate
Sources: IATA, ACMG and American Trucking Associations *Figures include for-hire and private carriage
0
1
2
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
US domestic trucking*
US domestic air cargo
U.S. domestic trucking and air cargo traffic,
Indexed to 1990
U.S. domestic air cargo traffic,
million tonnes
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SOURCE: US DOC Foreign trade data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Tonnes (
mill
ion)
Air cargo Maritime
2.1% 2.0%
2.0% 1.8% 2.0%
2.0%
2.2%
2.0%
1.7% 2.0%
2.0%
2.3%
2.5% 2.2%
Air cargo market share (%)
Air cargo has maintained its market share in the key trans-Pacific cargo market Top 20 air cargo commodities for the Asia–North America market
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Intra-Europe
Middle East-Europe
South Asia-Europe
Africa-Europe
Latin America-North America
Europe-Latin America
Domestic China
North America
Europe-North America
Intra Asia
Europe-Asia
Asia-North America
2014–2033 RTKs
RTKs, billions
2013 RTKs
Annual
growth %
5.4%
5.3%
6.5%
3.1%
2.1%
6.7%
4.8%
4.0%
5.2%
4.3%
4.7%
2.0%
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Freighter size categories
Standard body
< 45 tonnes
707
727 series
737 series
757
A320 series
BAe-146
DC-8 series
DC-9 series
MD-80 SF
Tu-204
Medium widebody
40–80 tonnes
767 series
787
A300 series
A310 series
A330 series
DC-10 series
Il-76TD
Large
> 80 tonnes
747 series
777 series
A350
AN-124
Il96-T
MD-11
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Freighter airplane requirement
Current Market Outlook Passenger and combi airplane forecast
World Air Cargo Forecast Projected traffic
minus
equals
Total cargo
Demand
Lower-hold lift
Supply
Needed freighter lift
Supply
–
=
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2014 to 2033 Freighters
Delivery units
2013 Freighters
1,690
2033 Freighters 2,730
Share of fleet
2,170
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
960
590
370
250
Large production >80 tonnes
Wide-body conversions 40-120 tonnes
Medium wide-body production 40-80 tonnes
Standard-body conversions <45 tonnes
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2013 2033
Freighter fleet additions for growth and replacement
Freighter aircraft, units
Fleet
additions
2,170 units
Current/retained fleet
Replacement
1,130
Growth
1,040
1,690
2,730
560
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Asia leads in total deliveries; North America follows
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Asia Pacific North America Europe andC.I.S.
Middle East andAfrica
Latin America
Large
Widebody Conversions
Medium Widebody
Standard-body
Number of airplanes
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Large Freighters to General Carriers; Medium Widebodies for Express
Large
Freighters
588 units
82%
15%
3%
All-Cargo+Combination
Express Carriers
Miscellaneous Airline Groups
Standard-body
962 units
17%
39%
44%
Medium Widebody
Production
254 units
32%
58%
10%
Widebody
Conversions
364 units
25%
40%
35%
2014-2033 new and converted
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SOURCES: IATA, ICAO, Company reports, Boeing research
Percentage of world RTKs (FTKs) carried on freighters
Percentage of world RTKs carried on freighters
56 56
59
61 62 61 61 61 60
57 58 58
57 56 56
50
55
60
65
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2033*
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Freighter service advantages over passenger belly
Cargo focus and control
Timing and routing
Capacity (volume, weight, hazmat & dimensional)
Handling location and ramp proximity
Reliability and predictability
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45%
Lower
Hold
55%
Freighter
50%
Freighter
50%
Lower
Hold
5% Growth
59%
Freighter
41%
Lower
Hold
Annual RTKs (billions)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2032 2032
4% Growth
44%
Lower
Hold
56% Freighter
50%
Freighter
50%
Lower Hold
59%
Freighter
41% Lower Hold
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Slow trade, air cargo growth was mostly driven by weak demand growth
World air cargo traffic recovering
World air cargo traffic forecast to grow 4.7% per year through 2033
Freighters will remain the leading cargo capacity provider
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World Air Cargo Forecast 2014-2015
www.boeing.com/commercial/cargo
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