world blueberry acreage & production - manic moose...

© 2015 U.S. Highbush Blueberry Council

World Blueberry Acreage & Production

Cort Brazelton

SE Fruit & Veg 2016

© 2015 U.S. Highbush Blueberry Council Cort Brazelton

Where Have we been? …Where are we now?

2

World Blueberry Volume 1995:

50 Million lbs. – 2005 USHBC World Acreage & Production Report

World Blueberry Volume 2014:

1.2 Billion lbs. – 2014 USHBC World BB Statistics & Global Market Analysis


Parallels

Blueberries – Now the #2 Berry • World Blueberry Volume 1995: 50M lbs.

– 2005 USHBC World Acreage & Production Report

• World Blueberry Volume 2014: 1.2Bn lbs. – 2014 USHBC World BB Statistics & Global Market Analysis

Strawberries – Still #1 Berry • World Strawberry Volume 1995: 5.7B lbs.

– USDA ERS

• World Strawberry Volume 2012: 10Bn lbs. – UN FAO

3


Seeking Context: Tracking Volumes vs. Predicting Demand

• Vocabulary: “Usage” vs. “Demand” vs. “Consumption” • What’s Real?: Track fruit which is picked, packed,

processed and shipped to an end “customer” • Metric: Average Annual Growth Rate in Blueberry

Usage (AAGR) • By global market

• Based on AAGR by market 1. 2010 – 2014 2. 2008 – 2014 3. Conservative

4


AAGR Calculations

5

North America Europe

Asia/ Pacific

Only Asia

2008 498 73 29 23

2010 594 123 34 27

2014 900 215 115 97

2008-14 AAGR (6 year Avg.) 13% 32% 49% 54%

2010-14 AAGR (4 year Avg.) 13% 19% 60% 65%

Conservative 8% 13% 15% 20%

Usage by Year, by MarketMillions of lb


Usage Projections at Last 4 Years AAGR by Market

6

Highly Improbable


Usage Projections at Last 6 Years AAGR by Market

7

Still Improbable Esp. later

years


Hypothetical Usage Projections at Reduced AAGR by Market – Conservative

8

Global demand for 3Bn+ lbs. by 2024?


Traditional ...

9

Developing…


North America

10


FR PR Total FR PR Total FR PR Total

British Columbia 56.0 34.0 90.0 50.0 65.0 115.0 60.0 92.0 152.0

Washington 12.0 30.0 42.0 35.0 36.0 71.0 26.0 64.0 90.0

Oregon 25.8 27.5 53.3 40.0 35.0 75.0 38.0 47.0 85.0

California 27.0 1.0 28.0 34.0 6.9 40.9 39.5 8.0 47.5

TOTAL 120.8 92.5 213.3 159.0 142.9 301.9 163.5 211.0 374.5

2010 Million Lbs. 2012 Million Lbs. 2014 Million Lbs.

2014 North American Highbush Production Western Region

11

42% 24%


2014 North American Highbush Acreage Growth Western Region

12

FR PR Total FR PR Total

British Columbia 17,500 18,300 21,020 25,500 27,000 50.0 65.0 115.0 60.0 92.0 152.0

Washington 3,982 5,678 8,820 11,360 13,100 35.0 36.0 71.0 26.0 64.0 90.0

Oregon 5,516 6,234 7,458 8,840 10,610 40.0 35.0 75.0 38.0 47.0 85.0

California 3,949 5,120 5,790 6,985 7,290 34.0 6.9 40.9 39.5 8.0 47.5

TOTAL 30,947 35,332 43,088 52,685 58,000 159.0 142.9 301.9 163.5 211.0 374.5

2007 Acres

2008 Acres

2012 Acres

2012 Million Lbs.2010 Acres




Michigan 49.5 49.5 99.0 28.2 52.0 80.2 44.2 47.3 91.5

Indiana 2.7 1.3 4.0 1.4 0.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 2.5

Others 1.9 0.0 1.9 1.9 0.0 1.9 1.3 0.0 1.3

TOTAL 54.1 50.8 104.9 31.5 52.2 83.7 47.0 48.3 95.3


2014 North American Highbush Production Midwestern Region

13


2014 North American Highbush Acreage Growth Midwestern Region

14


Michigan 19,300 21,200 21,450 22,100 22,500 28.2 52.0 80.2 44.2 47.3 91.5

Indiana 850 900 950 990 990 1.4 0.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 2.5

Others 1,275 1,300 1,450 1,550 1,580 1.9 0.0 1.9 1.3 0.0 1.3

TOTAL 21,425 23,400 23,850 24,640 25,070 31.5 52.2 83.7 47.0 48.3 95.3

2007 Acres

2008 Acres

2012 Acres




2014 North American Highbush Production Northeast Region

15


New Jersey 32.0 8.0 40.0 46.0 9.0 55.0 50.0 5.0 55.0

New York 2.2 0.1 2.3 1.8 0.0 1.8 1.5 0.0 1.5

E. Canada 3.8 0.1 3.9 2.3 0.0 2.3 2.0 0.0 2.0

Nova Scotia 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.2 0.1 1.3 1.4 0.1 1.5

TOTAL 39.0 8.2 47.2 51.3 9.1 60.4 54.9 5.1 60.0



2014 North American Highbush Acreage Growth Northeast Region

16


New Jersey 7,900 7,960 8,120 8,170 8,200 46.0 9.0 55.0 50.0 5.0 55.0

New York 1,050 1,100 1,200 1,250 1,300 1.8 0.0 1.8 1.5 0.0 1.5

E. Canada 1,150 1,200 1,260 1,300 1,350 2.3 0.0 2.3 2.0 0.0 2.0

Nova Scotia 300 300 300 320 335 1.2 0.1 1.3 1.4 0.1 1.5

TOTAL 10,400 10,560 10,880 11,040 11,185 51.3 9.1 60.4 54.9 5.1 60.0

2007 Acres

2008 Acres

2012 Acres





Florida 15.0 0.8 15.8 16.0 3.0 19.0 17.0 0.0 17.0

Arkansas 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5

Miss./Louisiana 3.0 4.5 7.5 3.3 5.0 8.3 4.5 4.7 9.2

Georgia 36.0 20.0 56.0 36.0 35.0 71.0 56.0 40.0 96.0

North Carolina 27.5 11.5 39.0 30.0 10.0 40.0 37.5 11.0 48.5

Texas 1.5 0.0 1.5 2.0 0.1 2.1 1.5 0.0 1.5

Others 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.5 2.0

TOTAL 84.1 36.8 120.9 88.1 53.1 141.2 118.5 56.2 174.7


2014 North American Highbush Production Southern Region

17


2014 North American Highbush Acreage Growth Southern Region

18


Florida 3,200 3,450 3,950 4,200 5,500 16.0 3.0 19.0 17.0 0.0 17.0

Arkansas 530 550 550 550 570 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5

Miss./Louisiana 2,500 3,300 3,850 4,000 4,200 3.3 5.0 8.3 4.5 4.7 9.2

Georgia 9,120 11,000 12,800 14,200 23,500 36.0 35.0 71.0 56.0 40.0 96.0

North Carolina 6,000 6,200 6,800 7,200 7,300 30.0 10.0 40.0 37.5 11.0 48.5

Texas 950 1,000 1,050 1,250 1,370 2.0 0.1 2.1 1.5 0.0 1.5

Others 0 0 450 500 550 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.5 2.0

TOTAL 22,300 25,500 29,450 31,900 42,990 88.1 53.1 141.2 118.5 56.2 174.7

2007 Acres

2008 Acres

2012 Acres





Northern Mexico 0.8 0.0 0.8 2.8 0.0 2.8 6.0 0.0 6.0

Southern Mexico 4.2 0.0 4.2 9.5 0.2 9.7 17.0 0.2 17.2

Guatemala 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1

TOTAL 5.0 0.0 5.0 12.3 0.2 12.5 23.1 0.2 23.3


2014 North American Highbush Production Mexico & Central America Region

19

~2x


2014 North American Highbush Acreage Growth Mexico & Central America Region

20


Northern Mexico 180 260 295 650 1,580 2.8 0.0 2.8 6.0 0.0 6.0

Southern Mexico 350 530 1,350 2,400 4,790 9.5 0.2 9.7 17.0 0.2 17.2

Guatemala 15 15 18 20 21 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1

TOTAL 545 805 1,663 3,070 6,391 12.3 0.2 12.5 23.1 0.2 23.3

2007 Acres

2008 Acres

2012 Acres




2014 North American Highbush Production North America Region

21

≈20% every 2 years


Western 120.8 92.5 213.3 159.0 142.9 301.9 163.5 211.0 374.5

Midwest 54.1 50.8 104.9 31.5 52.2 83.7 47.0 48.3 95.3

Northeast 39.0 8.2 47.2 51.3 9.1 60.4 54.9 5.1 60.0

Southern 84.1 36.8 120.9 88.1 53.1 141.2 118.5 56.2 174.7

Mexico & Cen. Am. 5.0 0.0 5.0 12.3 0.2 12.5 23.1 0.2 23.3

TOTAL 303.0 188.3 491.3 342.2 257.4 599.6 407.0 320.8 727.8



2014 North American Highbush Acreage Growth North America Region

22


Western 30,947 35,332 43,088 52,685 58,000 159.0 142.9 301.9 163.5 211.0 374.5

Midwest 21,425 23,400 23,850 24,640 25,070 31.5 52.2 83.7 47.0 48.3 95.3

Northeast 10,400 10,560 10,880 11,040 11,185 51.3 9.1 60.4 54.9 5.1 60.0

Southern 22,300 25,500 29,450 31,900 42,990 88.1 53.1 141.2 118.5 56.2 174.7

Mexico & Cen. Am. 545 805 1,663 3,070 6,391 12.3 0.2 12.5 23.1 0.2 23.3

TOTAL 85,617 95,597 108,931 123,335 143,636 342.2 257.4 599.6 407.0 320.8 727.8


2010 Acres

2007 Acres

2008 Acres



North American Acreage Increases 1995 - 2014

23

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

1995 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2008 2010 2012 2014


2014 North American Acreage Distribution

24

Western40% Midwest

18%

Northeast8%

Southern30%

Mexico & Cen. Am.

4%


2014 North American Highbush Summary North America Region - Varieties

25

NORTHERN • Duke • Bluecrop • Elliott • Jersey • Draper SOUTHERN • Oneal • Star • Emerald • Snowchaser • Biloxi • Private RABBITEYE • Brightwell • Powderblue • Ochlockonee

Western 58,000 Mar-Sep 374.5

Midwest 25,070 Jul-Sep 95.3

Northeast 11,185 Jun-Sep 60.0

Southern 42,990 Mar-Aug 174.7

Mexico & Cen. Am. 6,391 Sep-May 23.3

North America 143,636 Mar-Oct 727.8

2014 Acres Timing

Total Prod


NA Fresh Production by Region 1995 - 2014

26


NA Processed Production by Region 1995 - 2014

27


New Product Introductions Using Blueberries by Category - North America

28

Source: USHBC & Mintel Global New Product Database (GNPD)


North America Overview

29

West

• PNW – Global volume growth leader, processed leader (1/2 global vol.), fresh growth static, export opportunities

• Hard NW winter of 13/14 still playing out 2 years later • California planting growth led by consolidated group, few new players

Midwest • Gradual growth continues, harder winter impacted crop • New growing techniques increasing productivity • Potential for some big years ahead

South • Significant growth, both in acreage and production, Georgia leader • Heavy planting in GA continues

Northeast • (NJ) Increased replanting, market proximity an advantage • Recovery from hard winter will take another year • More variety change outs ahead

Mexico & Central America

• Mexico a “closer fresher” alternative for counter season • New horticultural systems and genetics changing paradigm


North America Overview

30

Domestic Market • 13%+ annual market growth continues

Export Markets • Greatest opportunity for US industry, esp. Pacific Rim (China)

Process • Gradual growth • Entering 3rd year of stable pricing • A-grade scarce

Economics, Policy, Technology

• Labor remains concern long term • Considerable interest in machine harvest for fresh • New varieties and management system beginning to impact

costs vs. returns in some regions

North America - General

• 100 Years of Blueberries! • Competitive advantages for operations of scale • Rapid planting growth can lead to underperformance • Consolidation in some areas • Arrival of Private Investor Capital • Young acres concentrated in West and SE


South America

31


2013/14 South American Highbush Production

32

119 m lbs. ~


Chile 109.5 14.0 123.5 154.5 65.9 220.4 163.1 60.1 223.2

Argentina 24.6 2.0 26.6 31.3 14.2 45.5 27.7 6.3 34.0

Uruguay 2.7 0.3 3.0 4.2 1.8 5.9 4.0 1.5 5.5

Peru 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4.5 0.1 4.6

Brazil 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.5

Colombia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2

TOTAL 137.1 16.3 153.4 190.5 81.8 272.4 200.0 68.0 268.0



South America Acreage Increases 1995 - 2014

33

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

1995 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2008 2010 2012 2014


2013/14 South American Highbush Acreage Growth

34


Chile 22,700 26,908 32,250 33,960 38,430 154.5 65.9 220.4 163.1 60.1 223.2

Argentina 9,400 10,900 9,500 7,410 7,420 31.3 14.2 45.5 27.7 6.3 34.0

Uruguay 1,450 1,620 1,850 1,105 910 4.2 1.8 5.9 4.0 1.5 5.5

Peru 40 60 80 780 2,650 0.1 0.0 0.1 4.5 0.1 4.6

Brazil 50 200 250 350 400 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.5

Colombia 10 15 20 35 50 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2

TOTAL 33,650 39,703 43,950 43,640 49,860 190.5 81.8 272.4 200.0 68.0 268.0

2014 Million Lbs.2012 Million Lbs.2007 Acres

2008 Acres

11/12 Acres

09/10 Acres

13/14 Acres


2013/14 South America Acreage Distribution

35

Chile77%

Argentina15%

Uruguay2%

Peru5%

Brazil1%

Colombia0%


2013/14 South American Highbush - Varieties

36

NORTHERN • Duke • Elliott • Brigitta • Legacy SOUTHERN • Oneal • Star • Camellia • Jewel • Snowchaser • Biloxi • Ventura • Emerald RABBITEYE • Brightwell • Ochlockonee

Chile 38,430 Nov-Mar 223.2

Argentina 7,420 Sep-Jan 34.0

Uruguay 910 Oct-Jan 5.5

Peru 2,650 Aug-Jan 4.6

Brazil 400 Sep-Jan 0.5

Colombia 50 Jul-Feb 0.2

TOTAL 49,860 Sep-Apr 268.0

13/14 Acres Timing

Total Prod


2013/14 South America Fresh Production

37

Chile82%

Argentina14%Uruguay

2%

Peru2.25%

Brazil0.25%

Colombia0.08%


2013/14 South America Processed Production

38

Chile89%

Argentina9%

Uruguay2.2%

Peru0.15%


New Product Introductions Using Blueberries – Latin America

39



South America Overview

40

Continent

• Mature regions recovering, new regions developing • Exports becoming more diverse • Rapid growth has led to underperformance in many regions • Domestic consumption developing

Chile

• EVGM – changes everything • Larger operators positioning, consolidating majority supply. • Other portion of industry increasingly atomized • Planting restarted after static years, focus on new genetics • Labor a limiting factor • Maritime arrival issues present major challenge

Argentina • Recovering from difficult years, more consolidated and

professional • Industry stabilized, hopes for political change

Uruguay • Comparatively small, following ARG trend

Other Countries • New growing regions and markets in South America • Peru is now a commercial participant in industry


Europe

41



France 3.8 0.2 4.0 3.7 0.1 3.8 4.0 0.1 4.1

Spain 17.6 0.0 17.6 21.5 0.2 21.7 43.2 0.2 43.4

Portugal 2.4 0.0 2.4 2.7 0.0 2.7 6.5 0.2 6.7

TOTAL 23.8 0.2 24.0 27.9 0.3 28.2 53.7 0.5 54.2


2014 European Highbush Production Southern & Western Europe

42

~2x


2014 European Highbush Acreage Growth Southern & Western Europe

43

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2007 2008 2010 2012 2014

Portugal

Spain

France

Acres


2014 European Highbush - Varieties Southern & Western Europe

44

NORTHERN • Duke • Bluecrop • Brigitta • Draper • Elliott • Aurora SOUTHERN • Star • Camellia • Suziblue • Ventura • UF Varieties* • Private RABBITEYE • Ochlockonee • Centrablue

France 1,040 Jul-Aug 4.1

Spain 4,560 Mar-Jun 43.4

Portugal 1,175 Apr-Jun 6.7

TOTAL 6,775 Mar-Aug 54.2

2014 Acres Timing

Total Prod



Austria 0.6 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.2 1.7 2.0 0.2 2.2

Denmark 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.4

Netherlands 2.8 0.3 3.0 8.3 1.3 9.6 6.8 0.7 7.5

Germany 18.7 1.2 19.9 20.1 1.9 22.0 26.4 2.1 28.5

Ireland 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.3

Italy 3.6 0.2 3.9 4.2 0.2 4.4 5.5 0.2 5.7

Sweden 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.3

Switzerland 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.8

UK 2.4 0.1 2.5 2.6 0.1 2.7 3.3 0.2 3.5

TOTAL 28.9 2.1 31.0 37.9 3.8 41.7 45.7 3.5 49.1


2014 European Highbush Production Central & Northern Europe

45


2014 European Highbush Acreage Growth Central & Northern Europe

46

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2007 2008 2010 2012 2014

UK

Switzerland

Sweden

Italy

Ireland

Germany

Netherlands

Denmark

Austria

Acres


2014 European Highbush - Varieties Central & Northern Europe

47

NORTHERN • Duke • Bluecrop • Draper • Elliott • Brigitta • Aurora

Austria 215 Jul-Aug 2.2

Denmark 75 Jul-Sep 0.4

Netherlands 1,750 Jun-Sep 7.5

Germany 5,790 Jul-Sep 28.5

Ireland 55 Jul-Sep 0.3

Italy 1,180 Jun-Aug 5.7

Sweden 110 Aug-Sep 0.3

Switzerland 140 Jul-Sep 0.8

UK 950 Jul-Sep 3.5

TOTAL 10,265 Jun-Sep 49.1

2014 Acres Timing

Total Prod



Baltics 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.2 0.0 1.2 1.8 0.0 1.8

Poland 13.8 9.9 23.8 22.3 3.4 25.7 30.8 3.4 34.2

Ukraine 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 1.1

Romania 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.6

Republic of Georgia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2

Others 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 1.0

TOTAL 15.9 10.2 26.1 24.8 3.6 28.4 34.9 4.0 38.9


2014 European Highbush Production Eastern Europe

48


2014 European Highbush Acreage Growth Eastern Europe

49

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2007 2008 2010 2012 2014

OthersRepublic of GeorgiaRomaniaUkrainePolandBaltics

Acres


2014 European Highbush - Varieties Eastern Europe

50

NORTHERN • Bluecrop • Draper • Elliott • Bluegold

Baltics 500 Aug-Sep 1.8

Poland 9,350 Aug-Sep 34.2

Ukraine 570 Jul-Sep 1.1

Romania 350 Jul-Sep 0.6

Republic of Georgia 45 May-Sep 0.2

Others 400 0 1.0

TOTAL 11,215 Jul-Sep 38.9

2014 Acres Timing

Total Prod


European Acreage Increases 1995 - 2014

51

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1995 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2008 2010 2012 2014


2014 European Highbush Acreage Growth

52


South & Western 3,000 3,270 3,970 4,640 6,775 27.9 0.3 28.2 53.7 0.5 54.2

Central & Northern 6,375 7,138 8,195 9,350 10,265 37.9 3.8 41.7 45.7 3.5 49.1

Eastern 7,330 7,630 8,615 10,011 11,215 24.8 3.6 28.4 34.9 4.0 38.9

TOTAL 16,705 18,038 20,780 24,001 28,255 90.6 7.7 98.2 134.2 8.0 142.2


2014 Acres


2008 Acres

2012 Acres


2014 European Highbush Acreage Growth

53

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2007 2008 2010 2012 2014

EasternCentral & NorthernSouth & Western

Acres


2014 European Acreage Distribution

54

South & Western

24%

Central & Northern

36%

Eastern40%


2014 Europe Fresh Production

55

South & Western

40%

Central & Northern

34%

Eastern26%


New Product Introductions Using Blueberries – Europe

56



European Overview

57

Europe • Market growth exceeds 25% led by Netherlands, Nordics, Germany, Austria, Switzerland

• UK growth still strong • Health awareness growing • Production expansion driven by increased consumption,

increased use of berry category at retail • Quality + Value drives the market • Fresh focused

South & Western

• Spain leads Europe in growth • Spring is large and more consolidated than summer deal • France, “the arbiter of quality” still slow but growing

C. & Northern • Growth throughout the north serving local demand

Eastern • Polish growth more gradual • Poland is an important growth market • Eastern growth continues • Geopolitics disrupting sales growth to Russia


Mediterranean & North Africa

58


2014 Mediterranean & North Africa Highbush Production

59


Morocco 1.8 0.0 1.8 4.9 0.0 4.9 14.2 0.5 14.7

Egypt 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1

Turkey 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.8

Israel 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1

Tunisia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1

Others 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

TOTAL 2.2 0.0 2.2 5.4 0.1 5.5 14.9 0.7 15.7



2014 Mediterranean & North Africa Highbush Acreage Growth

60

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2007 2008 2010 2012 2014

Others

Tunisia

Israel

Turkey

Acres


2014 Mediterranean & North Africa Highbush Acreage Growth

61


Morocco 170 180 450 800 1,970 4.9 0.0 4.9 14.2 0.5 14.7

Egypt 20 25 35 40 40 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1

Turkey 0 120 150 220 280 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.8

Israel 25 30 35 35 35 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1

Tunisia 0 0 0 2 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1

Others 0 0 2 1 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

TOTAL 215 355 672 1,098 2,329 5.4 0.1 5.5 14.9 0.7 15.7



2007 Acres

2008 Acres

2012 Acres


2014 Mediterranean & North Africa Highbush - Varieties

62

NORTHERN • Chandler • Bluecrop • Patriot • Bluegold SOUTHERN • Star • Biloxi • Sharpblue • Ventura • UF varieties • Private

Morocco 1,970 Feb-Jun 14.68

Egypt 40 Feb-Jun 0.05

Turkey 280 Mar-Sep 0.75

Israel 35 Mar-Jun? 0.10

Tunisia 2 Feb-May 0.05

Others 2 0 0.02

TOTAL 2,329 Feb-Jun 15.65

2014 Acres Timing

TotalProd


New Product Introductions Using Blueberries – Middle East & North Africa

63



Mediterranean & North Africa Overview

64

Morocco

• Morocco now a world player though still comparatively small • Highly consolidated industry • Supplier of quality early spring fruit, impacting market

preferences in late winter and spring • Contributing to demand growth

North Africa • Limited activity outside of Morocco to date • Geopolitics have disrupted development in many countries

Mediterranean & Middle East

• New markets developing • Turkey growing to serve local market


Southern Africa

65


2014 Southern Africa Highbush Production

66


South Africa 2.10 0.20 2.30 3.00 0.50 3.50 4.41 0.44 4.85

Angola 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

Zimbabwe 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.05

Others 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.05

TOTAL 2.10 0.20 2.30 3.06 0.50 3.56 4.51 0.44 4.95



2014 Southern Africa Highbush Acreage Growth

67

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2007 2008 2010 2012 2014

OthersZimbabweAngolaSouth Africa

Acres


2014 Southern Africa Highbush Acreage Growth

68


South Africa 800 900 1,120 1,140 1,285 3.00 0.50 3.50 4.41 0.44 4.85

Angola 10 10 2 2 2 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

Zimbabwe 0 0 1 3 4 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.05

Others 0 0 1 1 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.05

TOTAL 810 910 1,124 1,146 1,292 3.06 0.50 3.56 4.51 0.44 4.95



2007 Acres

2008 Acres

2012 Acres


2014 Southern Africa Highbush - Varieties

69

NORTHERN • Duke • Legacy • Chandler SOUTHERN • Emerald • Jewel • Star • Snowchaser • Ventura • Private RABBITEYE • Ochlockonee • Powerdblue

South Africa 1,285 Aug-Jan 4.85

Angola 2 Aug-Jan 0.00

Zimbabwe 4 Aug-Nov? 0.05

Others 1 0 0.05

TOTAL 1,292 Aug-Jan 4.95

2014 Acres Timing

Total Prod


New Product Introductions Using Blueberries – Sub-Saharan Africa

70



Southern Africa Overview

71

Republic of South Africa

• Positioning as quality counter-seasonal blueberry supplier to Europe, competing with other southern hemisphere suppliers

• Highly consolidated • Some barriers to rapid growth • Political & security concerns

Other Countries • Limited activity up to this point, mainly trials


Asia & Pacific

72



China 3.0 3.6 6.6 18.0 7.0 25.0 35.3 8.8 44.1

India 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

Japan 4.9 0.2 5.1 5.4 1.2 6.6 7.2 1.6 8.8

South Korea 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.2 1.9 9.6 1.1 10.7

TOTAL 8.6 3.8 12.4 25.4 8.4 33.8 52.1 11.5 63.6


2014 Asia & Pacific Highbush Production Asia

73


2014 Asia & Pacific Highbush Acreage Growth Asia

74

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2007 2008 2010 2012 2014

South KoreaJapanIndiaChina

Acres


2014 Asia & Pacific Highbush Acreage Growth Asia

75


China 3,275 2,900 8,645 29,800 36,700 18.0 7.0 25.0 35.3 8.8 44.1

India 0 60 80 105 135 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

Japan 1,300 2,090 2,230 2,970 3,220 5.4 1.2 6.6 7.2 1.6 8.8

South Korea 40 50 180 415 3,950 1.7 0.2 1.9 9.6 1.1 10.7

TOTAL 4,615 5,100 11,135 33,290 44,005 25.4 8.4 33.8 52.1 11.5 63.6



2007 Acres

2008 Acres

2012 Acres


2014 Asia & Pacific Highbush - Varieties Asia

76

NORTHERN • Duke • Bluecrop • Northland • Elliott SOUTHERN • Misty • Sharpblue • Oneal • UF and UG

varieties in Japan

ANGUSTIFOLIUM & HALFHIGHS • Tophat • North Country • Blomindon • Northblue • St. Cloud RABBITEYE • Tifblue • Centurion • Beckyblue

China 36,700 May-Oct 44.1

India 135 Mar-Aug? 0.0

Japan 3,220 May-Aug 8.8

South Korea 3,950 Jun-Aug 10.7

TOTAL 44,005 May-Aug 63.6

2014 Acres Timing

Total Prod


New Product Introductions Using Blueberries – Asia

77



2014 Pacific Highbush Production Pacific

78


Australia 5.7 0.9 6.6 9.5 0.7 10.1 12.1 1.3 13.4

New Zealand 2.0 1.5 3.5 3.1 1.1 4.2 4.0 1.5 5.5

Indonesia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Philippines 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

TOTAL 7.7 2.4 10.1 12.6 1.8 14.3 16.1 2.8 18.9



2014 Asia & Pacific Highbush Acreage Growth Pacific

79

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2007 2008 2010 2012 2014

PhilippinesIndonesiaNew ZealandAustralia

Acres


2014 Asia & Pacific Highbush Acreage Growth Pacific

80


Australia 1,450 1,470 1,530 2,510 2,680 9.5 0.7 10.1 12.1 1.3 13.4

New Zealand 1,290 1,290 1,450 1,730 1,820 3.1 1.1 4.2 4.0 1.5 5.5

Indonesia 0 0 0 3 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Philippines 10 10 2 2 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

TOTAL 2,750 2,770 2,982 4,245 4,503 12.6 1.8 14.3 16.1 2.8 18.9



2007 Acres

2008 Acres

2012 Acres


2014 Asia & Pacific Highbush - Varieties Pacific

81

NORTHERN • Duke • Bluecrop • Elliott • Nui • Puru SOUTHERN • Private • Biloxi • Sharpblue RABBITEYE • Rahi • Maru • Powderblue

Australia 2,680 Aug-Jan 13.4

New Zealand 1,820 Nov-Mar 5.5

Indonesia 3 Sep-Apr? 0.0

Philippines 0 Sep-Apr? 0.0

TOTAL 4,503 Aug-Apr? 18.9

2014 Acres Timing

TotalProd


New Product Introductions Using Blueberries – Australia/New Zealand

82



2014 Asia & Pacific Highbush Production

83


Asia 8.6 3.8 12.4 25.4 8.4 33.8 52.1 11.5 63.6

Pacific 7.7 2.4 10.1 12.6 1.8 14.3 16.1 2.8 18.9

TOTAL 16.3 6.2 22.5 38.0 10.2 48.1 68.2 14.3 82.5


~2x?


2014 Asia & Pacific Highbush Acreage Growth

84

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2007 2008 2010 2012 2014

Pacific

Asia

Acres


2014 Asia & Pacific Highbush Acreage Growth

85


Asia 4,615 5,100 11,135 33,290 44,005 25.4 8.4 33.8 52.1 11.5 63.6

Pacific 2,750 2,770 2,982 4,245 4,503 12.6 1.8 14.3 16.1 2.8 18.9

TOTAL 7,365 7,870 14,117 37,535 48,508 38.0 10.2 48.1 68.2 14.3 82.5



2007 Acres

2008 Acres

2012 Acres


Asia & Pacific Overview

86

Australia • High demand in domestic market • Population <23M, consumes large minority of Asia/Pac fruit • High production & harvest costs

New Zealand • Growth limited, highly professional, focused on supply to Oz and some exports

• Niche markets for high end quality fresh product

Japan • Most established Asian market – domestic production preferred when available in late spring

• Significant movement of fresh and processed imports

China • Sleeping giant has awoken, huge market potential • Demand outstrips domestic supply for foreseeable future • Rapid planting underway, plenty of issues • Potential to be largest global market in 10 years

South Korea • “New Japan” for exports, high demand and increasing awareness of blueberries

• Domestic industry development rapid


Global Wild Blueberries

87


Fresh Process Total Fresh Process Total Fresh Process Total

Quebec 2.0 28.0 30.0 1.0 60.0 61.0 0.0 78.3 78.3

PEI 0.0 9.0 9.0 0.0 14.0 14.0 0.0 22.7 22.7

Nova Scotia 0.0 27.5 27.5 0.0 45.0 45.0 0.0 62.0 62.0

New Brunswick 0.0 25.0 25.0 0.0 35.0 35.0 0.0 60.0 60.0

New Foundland 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0

Maine 0.5 64.5 65.0 0.5 100.0 100.5 0.4 104.0 104.4

China 0.0 10.0 10.0 1.0 9.0 10.0 1.0 12.0 13.0

Europe 2.0 15.0 17.0 4.0 39.0 43.0 4.0 20.0 24.0

Total Wild 4.5 179.5 184.0 6.5 303.0 309.5 5.4 360.0 365.4


2014 Worldwide Lowbush Production Wild Region

88

~125 m lbs. ~55 m lbs.


Global Wild Overview

89

North America

• 2014 another good Wild crop year • Highly consolidated deal, big players expanding acreage • Perceived ‘scarcity’ • Volumes actually increasing and slated to continue growing • SWD becoming a serious problem, especially in small plots

Europe

• Subject to volume swings dependent on annual forest harvest • Growing demand in much of Europe for Vacc. Myrtillus • Ukraine crop disrupted • High local consumption in east, traditional

China

• Data nebulous • Wild ‘Chinese’ blueberries (Vacc. Ulig.) demand growing

locally (these are red) • ‘Cultivated Wild’ Vacc. Angustifolium acreage growth slowed

but still continues


World

90



North America 303.0 188.3 491.3 342.2 257.4 599.6 407.0 320.8 727.8

South America 137.1 16.3 153.4 190.5 81.8 272.4 200.0 68.0 268.0

Europe 68.6 12.5 81.1 90.6 7.7 98.2 134.2 8.0 142.2

Med. & N. Africa 2.2 0.0 2.2 5.4 0.1 5.5 14.9 0.7 15.7

Southern Africa 2.1 0.2 2.3 3.1 0.5 3.6 4.5 0.4 5.0

Asia & Pacific 16.3 6.2 22.5 38.0 10.2 48.1 68.2 14.3 82.5

World Acreage 529.3 223.6 752.9 669.8 357.7 1,027.4 828.8 412.2 1,241.0

2014 Million Lbs.2010 Million Lbs. 2012 Million Lbs.

2014 World Highbush Production by Region

91

≈275 m lbs. ≈215 m lbs. ≈150 m lbs.

≈65% ≈35% ≈67% ≈33%


2014 World Highbush Acreage Growth by Region

92

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2005 2007 2008 2010 2012 2014

Asia & PacificSouthern AfricaMed. & N. AfricaEuropeSouth AmericaNorth America

Acres


2014 World Highbush Acreage Growth by Region

93


North America 71,075 85,617 95,597 108,931 123,335 143,636 342.2 257.4 599.6 407.0 320.8 727.8

South America 18,039 33,650 39,703 43,950 43,640 49,860 190.5 81.8 272.4 200.0 68.0 268.0

Europe 9,736 16,705 18,038 20,780 24,001 28,255 90.6 7.7 98.2 134.2 8.0 142.2

Med. & N. Africa 0 215 355 672 1,098 2,329 5.4 0.1 5.5 14.9 0.7 15.7

Southern Africa 740 810 910 1,124 1,146 1,292 3.1 0.5 3.6 4.5 0.4 5.0

Asia & Pacific 4,188 7,365 7,870 14,117 37,535 48,508 38.0 10.2 48.1 68.2 14.3 82.5

World Acreage 103,778 144,362 162,473 189,574 230,755 273,880 669.8 357.7 1,027.4 828.8 412.2 1,241.0



2005 Acres

2007 Acres

2008 Acres

2012 Acres


2014 World Acreage Distribution

94

North America

52%

South America

18%

Europe 10%

Med. & N. Africa .9%

Southern Africa .5%

Asia & Pacific 18%


World Highbush Acreage Increases 1995 - 2014

95

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2008 2010 2012 2014

Thousands

North America South AmericaEurope Med. & N. AfricaSouthern Africa AsiaPacific


2014 Total World Production

96

North America

59%

South America

22%

Europe11%Med. & N.

Africa1.26%

Southern Africa0.40%

Asia & Pacific

7%


2014 World Fresh Production

97

North America

49%

South America

24%

Europe16%

Med. & N. Africa1.80%

Southern Africa0.54%

Asia & Pacific8.2%


2014 World Highbush Processed Production

98


2014 World Highbush & Wild Production Total Global Crop

99

≈50% ≈50%

Fresh Process Total Fresh Process Total Fresh Process Total

North America 305.5 342.8 648.3 343.7 512.4 856.1 407.4 648.8 1,056.2

South America 137.1 16.3 153.4 190.5 81.8 272.4 200.0 68.0 268.0

Europe 70.6 27.5 98.1 94.6 46.7 141.2 138.2 28.0 166.2

Med. & N. Africa 2.2 0.0 2.2 5.4 0.1 5.5 14.9 0.7 15.7

Southern Africa 2.1 0.2 2.3 3.1 0.5 3.6 4.5 0.4 5.0

Asia & Pacific 16.3 16.2 32.5 39.0 19.2 58.1 69.2 26.3 95.5

TOTAL 533.80 403.07 936.87 676.25 660.65 1,336.90 834.21 772.23 1,606.44


≈55% ≈45%


2014 World Highbush and Lowbush Processed Production

100

North America HB

41%

No.America Wild42%

SouthAmerica HB

12%

Europe HB1.0%

Europe Wild2.6%

Asia & Pacific HB

2%

Asia Wild1.6%


2014 Top Ten Highbush Acreage Growth & Production

101

91% of Global Acreage


United States 67,572 76,492 86,248 94,765 110,245 279.9 192.3 472.2 323.9 228.6 552.5

Chile 22,700 26,908 32,250 33,960 38,430 154.5 65.9 220 163.1 60.1 223.2

Canada (BC) 17,500 18,300 21,020 25,500 27,000 50.0 65.0 115 60.0 92.0 152.0

China 3,275 2,900 8,645 29,800 36,700 18.0 7.0 25 35.3 8.8 44.1

Spain 1,870 2,100 2,600 3,050 4,560 21.5 0.2 22 43.2 0.2 43.4

Poland 6,700 6,900 7,800 8,545 9,350 22.3 3.4 26 30.8 3.4 34.2

Argentina 9,400 10,900 9,500 7,410 7,420 31.3 14.2 46 27.7 6.3 34.0

Germany 4,400 5,063 5,300 5,580 5,790 20.1 1.9 22 26.4 2.1 28.5

Mexico 545 805 1,663 3,070 6,391 12.3 0.2 12 23.1 0.2 23.3

Morocco 170 180 450 800 1,970 4.9 0.0 4.9 14.2 0.5 14.7

Top 10 Acreage 134,132 150,548 175,476 212,480 247,856 614.8 350.0 964.8 747.6 402.2 1,149.9

2012 Million Lbs. 2014 Million Lbs.2007 Acres

2008 Acres

2010 Acres

2014 Acres

2012 Acres

92% of Global Vol.


2014 Top Ten Highbush Acreage By Country

102

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

UnitedStates

Chile Canada(BC)

China Spain Poland Argentina Germany Mexico Morocco

Thousand Acres


2014 Top Ten Highbush Production – Fresh vs. Process

103

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

UnitedStates

Chile Canada(BC)

China Spain Poland Argentina Germany Mexico Morocco

Fresh Process

Million lb


2014 Leading Varieties Globally

104

Category Variety Names

High Chill Duke, Bluecrop, Elliott, Draper, Aurora

Mid Chill Legacy, Briggita

Low Chill Star, Sharpblue, Snowchaser, Jewel, Misty, Emerald, Private Programs

“No Chill” Biloxi, Private Programs

RE’s Brightwell, Tifblue, Ochlockonee, Premier


2014 Leading Producers of Organic Blueberries

• California • Germany • Chile* • Oregon • Washington

105


New Product Introductions Using Blueberries by Category - Worldwide

106



New Product Introductions Using Blueberries – Worldwide

107



2014 Worldwide Trends

108

Americas

• Still home to majority of the world’s production and consumption (79%)

• While North America remains largest market it is growing slower than int’l markets (13% vs. 25%+)

• Still much optimism about untapped growth opportunities through 1) new products; 2) increased share of stomach in fresh; 3) and reaching new consumers

Europe & Africa

• Europe market taking off – highly diverse, driven by quality • Region anticipated to grow considerably in rush to meet new

and fast growing demand • Morocco and RSA lead in Af./med and likely to continue med.

term

Asia & Pacific

• Asia market has fastest growth rate in World, from low base • Production growing but not anticipated to meet demand or

quality expectations • China’s planting fast but much unlikely to perform


2014 Worldwide Trends

109

Worldwide

• Beginnings of a ‘Multi Polar Global Industry’ • New consumers the major driver of global demand • Global nominal volume steady • 2012-14 global production increase was less significant • Fresh growing rapidly, Processed more gradual • Labor is a global concern, though solutions exist in most

regions • SWD is a significant problem in Northern Hemisphere • More Investor Capital entering industry around the world • Low latitude production entering commercial phase • More consolidation and larger operators • Rapid growth brings growing pains • Professionalism, quality, scale, value proposition • Prediction: Global demand for blueberries will at least triple

in the next decade. Market demand for quality at fair value will be even higher.


2012 World Highbush Production Growth Prediction

110

Over 1.3 Bn lb by 2015

Over 1.45 Bn lb by 2017


2014 World Highbush Production Growth Prediction

111

Over 1.7 Bn lb by 2019 Over 1.5 Bn lb

by 2017


Hypothetical Usage Projections at Reduced AAGR by Market – Conservative

112

Global demand for 3Bn+ lbs. by 2024?

Global demand for 1.9Bn lbs. by 2019?


Global Market Growth …

113

Existing Market Growth Market Developing Market

`


Special thanks to growers, shippers, packers, officials, suppliers, extension, foreign service, researchers and others from around the world who made this report possible!

Please remember the data in this report is a combination of hard data, soft data, official estimates, not so official estimates, conjecture, best guesses and wild guesses!

Also, thanks to Northwest Visuals and team members at Fall Creek Farm and Nursery for their support in data collection and preparation.

114

Special Thanks to all the Contributors!

Special thanks to growers, shippers, packers, officials, suppliers, extension, foreign service, researchers and others from around the world who made this report possible!

world blueberry acreage & production - manic moose...

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