world economic trends - cabinet office...(2009 q2) (short-term unemployment rate, %) 70 100 130 160...
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World Economic Trends The 2014 Spring Report
-- Risks and Potential of Emerging Economies -- (Summary)
June 2014
Cabinet Office Government of Japan
Chapter 1. Economic Trends and Outlook in Major Countries/Regions
Section 1. Overview of the Global Economy
Section 2. Current Economic Conditions in Major Countries/Regions
The global economy as a whole is recovering moderately thanks to a moderate U.S. recovery and a
European pick-up in 2014, although some countries including China and other emerging countries have indicated a weakness. (The global economy is expected to score a growth rate of about 3% in 2014.) This report analyzes the current economic conditions and future outlook in each country and region. USA: A moderate economic recovery is continuing in line with growth mainly in private consumption. Europe: The economy as a whole is picking up, pulled by Germany and the United Kingdom. Asia: In China, the pace of economic expansion is slowing with financial market instability.
This report also reviews emerging countries' growth potential and its future linkage with the world from the viewpoint of how China's development and growth potential decline would affect the global economy.
Purpose
1
Chapter 2. Risks and Potential of Emerging Economies
Section 1. Background of Growth Deceleration in Emerging Countries
Section 2. Emerging Countries' Positioning in Global
Trade Section 3. Emerging Economies and Global
Companies Section 4. Conclusion
Chapter 1, Section 1. Overview of the Global Economy -- Global Economic Trends: Recovering Moderately Despite Weakness in Some Countries --
The global economy as a whole is recovering moderately thanks to a moderate U.S. recovery and a European pick-up, despite a weakness seen in some countries including China and other emerging countries. (Figs. 1-2)
Inflation remains at low levels in developed countries while staying at high levels in emerging countries. Some developed countries see housing price hikes. (Figs. 3-4)
Fig. 2 Trends in World Production and Trade
Fig. 3 Price Trends (1) Developed countries
Fig. 4 Gap Between Housing Price Change and Nominal Economic Growth Rate
2
Fig. 1 Real GDP Growth Rate of the G20 Countries
(2) Emerging countries
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Q4
2010 11 12 13 14 15 11 12 13 14
（前年比、前期比年率、％）
その他先進国
Ｇ20全体
ＥＵ
その他新興国
アメリカ 中国
（期）
見通し
見通し
（年）（年）
(Quarter) (Year)
(Year-on-year change, annualized quarter-on-quarter change, %)
Forecast
Other emerging countries
Total G20 Forecast
Other developed countries China USA
EU
(Year) 95
100
105
110
32011 12 13 14
(January 2011 = 100)
Trade
Production
(Month) (Year)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Q12012 13 14
(Year-on-year change, %)
Euro area
USA
(Quarter) (Year)
UK
Japan 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q12012 13 14
(Year-on-year change, %)
Russia
Indonesia
(Quarter) (Year)
Brazil
China
India
3
11
16
9
42
0
4
15
22
2 2
0
5
10
15
20
25
▲10％以下 ▲10～▲5％ ▲5～0％ 0～5％ 5～10％ 10％以上
（地域数、計45地域）
住宅価格（前年比）－名目経済成長（前年比）
13年
平均：＋0.2％
中央値：＋0.4％
12年
平均：▲1.7％
中央値：▲2.2％
(Number of regions: Within 45 regions) 2012 Average: -1.7% Median: -2.2%
2013 Average: +0.2% Median: +0.4%
Housing price change (year-on-year) - Nominal economic growth (year-on-year)
-10% or less -10% to -5% -5% to 0% 0% to 5% 5% to 10% 10% or more
Chapter 1, Section 1. Overview of the Global Economy -- Global Economic Outlook and Risks (1) Global Economy, USA --
Global Economy: Continuing a moderate recovery Although weakness is seen in some countries including China and other emerging countries, the global economy as a whole is recovering moderately thanks to a moderate U.S. recovery and a European pick-up. Forecast: A moderate recovery will continue thanks to a moderate U.S. economic recovery and
a European economic pick-up. (Real economic growth in 2014: about 3%) Risks: (1) Impacts of U.S. monetary easing reduction, (2) too prolonged period of low inflation in
the Euro area, (3) Chinese financial market developments, (4) financial market destabilization in other emerging countries, (5) geopolitical risks
USA: Sustaining a moderate economic recovery
The economy is recovering moderately due to a slow upward trend of consumption and other developments such as employment and income environment improvements and housing and stock price hikes.
Forecast: A moderate recovery will continue. (Real economic growth in 2014: roughly in the
upper 2% range) Downside risks: (1) A decline in housing investment accompanying an asset purchase shrinkage,
(2) Prolonged deceleration of emerging economies Upside risks: (1) Rise of asset prices, (2) Decline of credit risk
3
Chapter 1, Section 1. Overview of the Global Economy -- Global Economic Outlook and Risks (2) Europe, Asia --
Europe: Continuing a pick-up While the United Kingdom is recovering, the Euro area is continuing a pick-up pulled by Germany.
Forecast: The pick-up will continue as consumption and investment grow supported by relaxation
of financial conditions and moderation of fiscal consolidation, coupled with an export increase sustained by a recovery in other economies including the USA. (Real economic growth in 2014: about 1%)
Risks: (1) Resurgence of the sovereign debt problem, (2) An export decline affected by the deceleration of USA and Asian economies, (3) Further employment deterioration, (4) Too prolonged period of low inflation
Asia: Weakness is seen in some economies
China is slowing down its economic expansion. South Korea and Taiwan are rebounding. ASEAN economies are stalled. India has hit bottom.
Forecast: Rather low economic growth (Real economic growth in 2014: Mid-7% in China, Mid-
3% in South Korea and Taiwan, in the lower 4% range in ASEAN countries, around 5% in India) Risks: (1) Chinese real estate price plunges and relevant financial market instability, (2) Impact
of U.S. monetary policy change, (3) Impact of China's economic deceleration
4
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
Q1199091 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99200001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 1314
(Deflation risk indicator)
(Quarter) (Year)
Euro area
Japan
USA
Mod
erat
e H
igh
Low
Def
latio
n ris
k
Chapter 1, Section 1. Overview of the Global Economy -- Major Global Economic Risks and Their Trends (1) U.S. Monetary Easing Reduction, Euro Area Deflation Fears --
It is important to avoid major market fluctuations through communications with the market based on costs (excessive risk-taking) and benefits (elimination of slack including unemployment) of quantitative monetary easing. (Figs. 5-7)
While inflation rates are falling in the Euro area, the risk of deflation is moderate. The Euro area is expected to see a steadier pick-up. Unexpected demand-side shocks could plunge the Euro area into deflation. (Figs. 8-9)
Fig. 8 Consumer Price Hikes in Euro area and Member Countries
5
Fig. 7 Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons
Fig. 9 Changes in Deflation Risk
Fig. 5 High-Yield Bond Issuance Trend Fig. 6 Short-Term Unemployment Rate and Wage Increase Rate
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
4
2013 14
（億ドル）
（月）（年）
($100 million)
(Month) (Year)
1
2
3
4
5
3 4 5 6 7
（賃金の伸び、前年比、％）
（短期失業率、％）
景気の山
（07年４Ｑ）
景気の谷
（09年２Ｑ）
景気の山
（01年１Ｑ）景気の谷
（01年４Ｑ）
(Wage increase, year-on-year, %)
Economic peak
(2001 Q1)
Economic peak
(2007 Q4) Economic
peak (2001 Q4)
Economic peak
(2009 Q2)
(Short-term unemployment rate, %)
70
100
130
160
190
220
Y 12 24 36 48 60 72
（景気の山＝100）
（月数）
07年12月
01年３月
81年７月90年６月
(Economic peak=100)
December 2007
March 2001
June 1990 July 1981
(months)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
4
2010 11 12 13 14
ギリシャ
イタリアスペイン
ポルトガル
ドイツ
フランス
ユーロ圏
（％）
（月）
（年）
(%)
(Month) (Year)
Euro area Italy
Spain
Germany
France
Portugal
Greece
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5
2011 12 13 14
３/16（日）ロシア編入に関するクリミア住民投票
５/22（木）タイでクーデター
８/27（木）～シリア空爆
機運の高まり
（ポイント）
（月）
（年）
(Month) (Year)
(Points)
March 16 (Sun) Crimea’s referendum on its annexation to Russia
May 22 (Thu) Thai coup
Aug. 27 (Thu) Increasing momentum toward bombing of Syria
96
98
100
102
104
21
2 3 4 5
（日）
（月）
（ドルレート、14年２月３日＝100）
ルーブル
ユーロ
円 ドル安
ドル高
(Day) (Month)
(Dollar exchange rate. February 3, 2014=100)
Ruble
Yen Dollar depreciation
Dollar appreciation
Euro
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
1/20 1/23 1/28 1/31
（ドルレート、14年１月１日＝100）
ＶＩＸ指数（右目盛）
新興国
先進国通貨平均
ドル高
各国通貨安
ドル安各国通貨高
（ポイント）
（日）
(Dollar exchange rate. January 1, 2014=100) (Points)
Dollar’s appreciation against other
currencies
Dollar’s depreciation against other
currencies
Emerging countries
VIX index (right scale)
Average for developed countries
(Date)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
t-2 t-1 t-0 t+1 t+2
（前年比）
(危機年=t）（t-0=0)
トルコ（11年）
5か国の過去の
危機時平均
インド（12年）India (2012)
Turkey (2011)
(Year for crisis=t)
Past 5-country average for past
crises
(Year-on-year change)
Fig. 11 Past Current Account Deficit Reversal (Trends of Real Economic Growth)
Chapter 1, Section 1. Overview of the Global Economy -- Major Global Economic Risks and Their Trends (2) International Finance for Emerging Countries, Ukraine Situation --
Emerging countries' currencies have intermittently depreciated, leading to capital outflow. The impact of capital outflow remained smaller than the past one due to the background of such developments as foreign currency reserves replenishment and foreign exchange deregulation. (Figs. 10-11)
As psychological risk aversion has emerged in addition to current account deficits and other economic fundamental weaknesses in emerging countries, capital flight from emerging country currencies to developed country currencies has been seen in some cases. (Fig. 12)
The Russian currency's temporary depreciation and other developments have come in response to growing geopolitical risks involving the Ukraine situation. But their effects on international financial markets have been limited. (Figs. 13-14)
6
Fig. 10 Resilience of Emerging Countries Fig. 12 Correlation with VIX (Volatility Index) (yen, euro, Swiss franc, emerging countries)
Fig. 13 Foreign Exchange Rates Fig. 14 VIX Index
Currency appreciation/
depreciation (%) (From May 22)
Currency appreciation/
depreciation (%) (From Dec.17)
Current account balance
(% to GDP)
Foreign debt (% to GDP)
Foreign exchange reserves
(% to GDP)
Share in global GDP Previous
crisis
Indonesia -17.8 5.1 -3.1 30.4 11.4 7.7 1.2 Turkey -13.9 -3.3 -7.0 47.3 18.0 9.6 1.1 Brazil -7.7 4.8 -3.6 14.2 16.2 6.0 3.0
South Africa -9.5 -0.8 -5.9 42.6 13.1 1.9 0.5 India -6.0 5.2 -2.8 27.4 17.2 1.3 2.5
Thailand -9.0 -1.1 12.9 38.0 43.2 17.3 0.5 Argentina -53.4 -27.3 -0.7 22.5 5.0 5.4 0.7
Russia -9.9 -4.4 2.0 35.5 24.9 2.9 2.8
Ukraine -45.8 -43.5 -8.9 75.7 11.2 17.1 0.2
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Q1 4
2013 14
（前年比寄与度、％）
（期/月）
（年）
その他
信託貸出
社債
新規
貸出
社会融資総量
（月次）
(Quarter/Month) (Year)
(Contributions to year-on-year changes, %)
Corporate bonds
Entrusted loan Total social financing
(Monthly)
New increased loan
Others
0
2
4
6
845
50
55
4
2013 14
ＰＭＩ（国家統計局）
（ポイント）
短期金利
（右目盛、逆目盛）
ＰＭＩ（ＨＳＢＣ）
（％）
（月）（年）
（ＰＭＩ）改善/増加
悪化/減少
(Month) (Year)
(PMI) Improvement
/increase
Deterioration /decrease
PMI (National Bureau of Statistics )
(Points) Short-term interest rate
(right scale, inverse scale)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
4
2011 12 13 14
(Month)
(Year)
(Year-on-year change, %)
Beijing
Shenzhen
Shanghai
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13/6
(% to GDP)
(Year/month)
Debt outstanding (central and local governments)
(right scale)
Central government debt outstanding
(Trillion yuan)
Local government debt outstanding
Chapter 1, Section 1. Overview of the Global Economy -- Major Global Economic Risks and Their Trends (3) China’s Financial Risks --
Factors behind the Chinese economy’s deceleration include policy measures to refrain excessive credit expansion through shadow banking. They also cause the destabilization of real estate prices as well as financial markets. (Figs. 15-16)
If risk-premium hikes and reductions in lending, it may further affect economic activities, in particular for small and medium-sized manufactures, real estate firms and others that depend on shadow banking funds more heavily. It has observed that bank loans expand in total social financing, while Chinese authority regulates WMP (Wealth Management Products). (Figs. 17-18)
7
Fig. 15 Local Government Debt and Real Estate Price Fig. 16 Short-Term Interest Rate and Manufacturing Activity
Fig. 18 Total Social Financing Fig. 17 Risk Premium in Corporate Bond Market
(1) Local Government Debt
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 11 2012 13 14
（％）
（月）
（年）
国債３年
社債ＡＡ格（３年）
(Month) (Year)
AA-rated corporate bond (3 years)
3-year government bond
(2) Real Estate Price
Chapter 1, Section 2. Current Economic Conditions in Major Countries/Regions (1) -- U.S. Economy Continuing Moderate Recovery -- Private consumption is sustaining a moderate increase due primarily to improvements of employment and the completion of
household balance sheet adjustments. (Fig. 19) Business investment has recovered the level before the global financial crisis due to corporate earnings improvement, though
with a slightly slower recovery tempo. (Figs. 20-21) Housing units started slowed in early 2014 due to cold waves and heavy snowfall. Price hikes remain below the Federal Reserve
target. (Figs. 22-23)
Fig. 19 Private Consumption
8
Fig. 22 Housing Units Started
Fig. 21 Business Investment
Fig. 23 Inflation Rate Trend
Fig. 20 Business Investment and Corporate Earnings
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
32008 09 10 11 12 13 14
($1 trillion) ($1 trillion)
Private consumption expenditure
Real disposable income (right scale)
(Month) (Year)
3
6
9
12
15
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Q1
2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14（期）（年）
企業収益（右目盛）
（09年＝100） （ＧＤＰ比、％）
設備投資
(Quarter) (Year)
(2009=100) (% to GDP)
Corporate earnings (right scale)
Business investment
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
-12 -8 -4 Ｙ 4 8 12 16 20 24
（景気の山＝100）
81年
７～９月期
90年
７～９月期
01年
１～３月期
07年
10～12月期
1
1
1
（期数）
(Economic peak=100) 1990 Q3
1981 Q3
2007 Q4 2001
Q1
(Quarters)
（％）3
4
5
60
20
40
60
80
100
120
4
2012 13 14
住宅金利（右・逆目盛）
着工件数
（月）（年）
（万件、年率）
(Month) (Year)
(10 thousand houses, annual rate)
Housing starts
Housing loan interest rate (right scale, inverse scale)
-1
0
1
2
3
3
2011 12 13 14
（前年比、％）
（月）
（年）
ＰＣＥ総合
ＰＣＥコア
ＦＥＤ目標
(Month) (Year)
(Year-on-year change, %) Fed target
Core PCE price index
PCE price index
0
10
20
30
40
2010 11 12 13 14
ギリシャ
キプロス
ポルトガル
アイルランド
スペイン
（％）
（月）（年）(Month) (Year)
Spain Greece
Portugal
Ireland Cyprus
-100-80-60-40-20
020406080
Q2
2007 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
(% points)
Germany
Euro area
Spain France
Italy
(Quarter) (Year)
Up
Down -0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
ドイツ フランス イタリア スペイン
（スコア）手続きの不便さ
解雇の困難さ
集団解雇
予告期間
・解雇手当合計
Spain France Italy Germany
(Score)
Total
Procedural inconvenience Notice period and
severance pay
Difficulty of dismissal
Collective dismissal
Chapter 1, Section 2. Current Economic Conditions in Major Countries/Regions (2) -- European Economy Picking Up as a Whole -- Some countries such as Spain have improved competitiveness through the implementation of structural reforms including labor
market reform and are expected to pick up driven by the export growth. Corporate loan demand as a whole is recovering. (Figs. 24-26)
In the United Kingdom, private consumption has increased due primarily to income improvements and the wealth effects of housing price hikes. (Fig. 27)
After the turmoil under the sovereign debt crisis, financial markets have stabilised thanks mainly to the European Central Bank’s aggressive monetary policy and progress in fiscal consolidation in each country. (Fig. 28)
9
Fig. 26 Corporate Loan Demand Fig. 24 Exports of Goods and Services
Fig. 28 Government Bond Spreads in Support-Receiving Countries Fig. 27 U.K. Housing Prices
75
85
95
105
115
125
32008 09 10 11 12 13 14
(January 2008=100)
Southeast London
Excluding London and Southeast
(Month) (Year)
Entire UK
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Q4
2008 09 10 11 12 13
（期）
（年）
（08年Q3＝100）
（備考） 各 統計 作成
ドイツ
ユーロ圏
フランス
スペイン
イタリア
(Quarter)
(Year)
Euro area
Italy
Spain
Germany
France
(2008 Q3=100)
Fig. 25 Employment Protection Indicators for Regular Workers
-6
0
6
12
18
Q4
2010 11 12 13（期）（年）
（前年比寄与度、％）
純輸出
政府消費
在庫投資
個人消費
その他
実質経済成長率
総固定資本形成
(Quarter)
(Year)
(Contributions to year-on-year changes, %)
Real economic growth rate
Inventory investment
Net exports
Government consumption
Private consumption
Gross fixed capital formation
Others
-40
-20
0
20
40
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
4
2011 12 13 14（月）
（年）
（前年比（累計）、％）
着工面積
（億㎡）
前年比（右目盛）
(Month) (Year)
(100 million square meters) (Year-on-year change
(accumulated), %)
Floor Space of Buildings Started
Year-on-year change (right scale)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
4
2012 13 14
（月）
（年）
（前年比（単月）、％）
非鉄金属加工
鉄金属加工電気機械
自動車製造
コンピュータ・
電子機器
製造業（全体）
(Month)
(Year)
(Year-on-year change for a single month, %)
Manufacturing (all) Automobiles Computer and
electronics
Smelting and Pressing of Non-ferrous Metals Electrical
machinery
Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals 3
2011 12 13 14
（月）
（年）
改善
悪化
(Month) (Year)
Improvement
Deterioration
Chapter 1, Section 2. Current Economic Conditions in Major Countries/Regions (3) -- Weakness in Asian Economies --
In China, the pace of economic expansion is slowing down. Investment growth in the ferrous metal processing industry, which reportedly has overcapacity, is contracting. Floor space of Buildings Started in the real estate sector has also declined. (Figs. 29-31)
South Korea and Taiwan have picked up due mainly to an upturn in global semiconductor shipments since the second half of 2013. (Fig. 32) ASEAN economies are generally stalling due mainly to an export slowdown. (Fig. 33) The Indian economy has hit bottom, while net exports are improving. (Fig. 34)
10
Fig. 29 So-called Li Keqiang Index (Example of trial estimation)
Fig. 30 Investment in Fixed Assets by Sector Fig. 31 Floor Space of Buildings Started
Fig. 34 India: Real Economic Growth Fig. 33 Indonesia: Exports Fig. 32 Global Semiconductor Shipments
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q12011 12 13 14
Others
China
Total (Value)
(Contributions to year-on-year changes, %)
(Quarter) (Year)
ASEAN Europe and
USA
-30
-15
0
15
30
3
2011 12 13 14
(Year-on-year change, %)
(Month) (Year)
World
Asia-Pacific Region
Japan
USA
Europe
0
2
4
6
8
10
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
（停電による損失の売上に占める割合、％）
中国
インドネシア
バングラデシュ
ナイジェリア
タイ
ベトナム
コロンビア
南アフリカ
（電力普及率、％）
インド
ベネズエラ
フィリピン
アルゼンチン
チリブラジル
エジプト
マレーシア
ペルー
Philippines
Thailand China
Malaysia
Vietnam
India
Bangladesh
Indonesia South Africa
Chili Brazil
Egypt
Colombia
Argentina
Nigeria
Venezuela
Peru
(Ratio of outage losses to sales, %)
(Electricity diffusion rate, %)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12
インド
ベトナム
世界金融危機
ＡＳＥＡＮ
（ＧＤＰ比、％）
(年)
非資源国平均中国
(Year)
Vietnam
ASEAN
China
India
(% to GDP) Global financial crisis
Average for non-resource-rich countries
Emerging economies achieved high growth on the strength of progress in globalization and invigorated trade and investment from 2000, accounting for half of the global economy in 2013. (Fig. 1)
Following the global financial crisis, mainly resource-rich countries have decelerated economic growth due to the Chinese economy’s deceleration, a slowdown of the globalization tempo and financial market turmoil from 2013. In some emerging countries, private credit expanded excessively. (Figs. 2-3)
Population bonuses behind the high economic growth will peak in 10 to 20 years in many emerging countries. But the timings for such peaking will differ from country to country. (Fig. 4)
Emerging countries will have to exploit their comparative advantage for developing infrastructure and institutions to sustain economic growth. (Fig. 5)
11
Chapter 2, Section 1. Background of Growth Deceleration in Emerging Countries (1) -- Characteristics of Emerging Economies and Factors behind Growth Deceleration
(1) Non-resource-rich countries Fig. 3 Private Credit in Emerging Countries
Fig. 2 Degrees of Dependence on Exports
Fig. 4 Population Bonus Periods Fig. 5 Electricity Diffusion Rate and Outage Loss Ratio
Fig. 1 Real Economic Growth in the World
0
4
8
12
16
-5
0
5
10
1980 85 90 95 2000 05 10 13
(%)
(Year)
Emerging and Developing countries
Developed countries
(%) China (Right scale)
12年
07年
0 100 200
メキシコ
フィリピン
トルコ
バングラデシュ
インド
ベトナム
マレーシア
中国
タイ
（ＧＤＰ比、％）
12年
07年
0 100 200
アルゼンチン
ペルー
ベネズエラ
ナイジェリア
インドネシア
イラン
コロンビア
ロシア
エジプト
ブラジル
チリ
南アフリカ
（ＧＤＰ比、％）
Thailand
China
Malaysia
Vietnam
India
Bangladesh
Turkey
Philippines
Mexico
2007
2012
2012
2007 South Africa
Chili Brazil Egypt
Russia Colombia
Iran Indonesia
Nigeria Venezuela
Peru Argentina
(% to GDP) (% to GDP)
フィリピン
インド
バングラデ
シュ
メキシコ
トルコ
ベトナム
中国
（年）
55
60
75
45
45
85
60
1975
1970
1970
1970
1970
1970
1975
2055
2045
2030
2035
2020
2015
2025
人口ボーナス期
60 70 8020
0090 10 20 30 40 50 60
19
50
人口負担期
China
Vietnam
Turkey
Mexico
Bangladesh
India
Philippines
(Year)
Population bonus period Population onus period (2) Resource-rich countries
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 95 2000 05 11
（％）
（年）
第二次産業
（％）
（年）
第三次産業
第一次産業 中国
（第一次産業）
中国（第二次産業）
中国（第三
次産業）
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 95 2000 05 11
（％）
（年）
第二次産業
（％）
（年）
第三次産業
第一次産業
(Year) (Year)
Primary industry China (primary industry)
China (tertiary industry)
Tertiary industry
China (secondary industry)
Secondary industry
Secondary industry
Tertiary industry
Primary industry
Growth has decelerated remarkably in resource-rich countries. International resources markets have slackened due to China’s growth deceleration coupled with the diversification of energy supply since after the global financial crisis. (Figs. 6-7)
For the reason that resource-rich countries are apt to see their currencies’ effective exchange rates rising during a resources boom, their currencies appreciated in the 2000s. Their future challenge is to enhance export competitiveness through the development of human and institutional resources to support industrial sophistication. (Figs. 8-9)
12
Chapter 2, Section 1. Background of Growth Deceleration in Emerging Countries (2) -- Challenges for Resource-Rich Economies --
Fig. 8 Effective Exchange Rate Trends Fig. 9 Employment by Industry
Fig. 7 U.S. Shale Gas Production Outlook
(1) Non-resource-rich countries
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
中国
インド
バングラデシュ
メキシコ
フィリピン
ベトナム
トルコ
タイ
マレーシア
非資源国平均
（％）
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
インドネシア
ブラジル
ナイジェリア
ロシア
エジプト
イラン
ミャンマー
南アフリカ
コロンビア
アルゼンチン
ペルー
ベネズエラ
チリ
資源国平均
（％）
-4.9
金融危機前
00～08年 金融危機後
09～12年90年代
Chi
na
Indi
a
Ban
glad
esh
Mex
ico
Phi
lippi
nes
Vie
tnam
Turk
ey
Thai
land
Mal
aysi
a Av
erag
e fo
r n
on-r
esou
rce-
rich
coun
tries
Indo
nesi
a
Bra
zil
Nig
eria
Rus
sia
Egy
pt
Iran
Mya
nmar
Sou
th A
frica
Col
ombi
a
Arg
entin
a
Per
u
Ven
ezue
la
Chi
li Av
erag
e fo
r re
sour
ce-r
ich
coun
tries
Before the global
financial crisis 2000-2008
1990s After the global financial crisis
2009-2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
4
8
12
16
20
1995 2000 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
11年 →予測
天然ガス供給量
に占めるシェア
（右目盛）
シェールガス
の生産量
（年）
（兆立法フィート） （％）
(Year)
(1 trillion cubit feet) 2011 Forecast
Share in total natural gas supply (right scale)
Shale gas output
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
（01年＝100）
（年）
資源国
非資源国
エネルギー価格
（右目盛）
（01年＝100）
世界金融危機
(Year)
(2001=100) (2001=100)
Resource-rich countries
Energy prices (right scale)
Non-resource-rich countries
Global financial crisis
(2) Resource-rich countries
Fig. 6 Real Economic Growth Trend (1) Non-resource-rich countries (2) Resource-rich countries
05年11年
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
ブラジル
中国
インドネシア
インド
メキシコ
トルコ
（国際分業度）分業度大
分業度小
Bra
zil
Chi
na
Indo
nesi
a
Indi
a
Mex
ico
Turk
ey
2005 2011
(Degree of international division of labor) Higher degree of division
Lower degree of division
Chapter 2, Section 2. Emerging Countries’ Positioning in Global Trade
China is reducing its dependence on imports of parts for its exports in the international supply chain, while India is expanding such dependence. China is shifting its role from assembling and exporting final goods to exporting intermediate goods. (Figs. 10-11)
China is expanding parts exports to India and ASEAN countries. (Figs. 12-13) In the 2000s, India and Vietnam as well as China posted high growth in machinery exports. India’s exports sharply
decelerated growth toward 2012 before picking up in the middle of 2013. (Figs. 14-15)
13
Fig. 14 Growth and Size of Machinery Exports
Fig. 12 India’s Degrees of International Division of Labor by Import Source
Fig. 10 Degree of International Division of Labor (manufacturing, imports/exports)
Fig. 11 Changes in China’s Degrees of International Division of Labor for Final and Intermediate Goods
Fig. 15 India’s Industrial Products Exports Fig. 13 China’s Electrical Machinery Exports by
Destination
0
0.1
0.2
1995 00 05 07 08 09 10 11
Europe
(Year)
(Degree of vertical division)
ROW (including developing countries)
China
Others
USA
1
1.5
2
1995 00 05 0708091011
Degree of vertical division (for intermediate demand)
(Year)
(1995 degree of vertical division (for intermediate demand)=1)
Degree of vertical division (for final demand)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 02 04 06 08 10 12(Year)
($100 million)
Thailand
Brazil Mexico
India
Indonesia
Vietnam -20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1-6 7-122004 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
(Year-on-year change, %) Electronics
(Month)
(Year)
Textiles
Iron and nonferrous metals
Transportation machinery
Chemicals
Ordinary machinery
Leather products USA
Italy
Iran
India
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Qatar
Canada
Cambodia
Saudi Arabia
Sri Lanka
Senegal
Thailand
Chile
Germany
Turkey
Nigeria
Bahrain
Brazil
Vietnam
Venezuela
Peru
Malaysia
Mexico Jordan
Russia Hong Kong South Korea
China
South Africa
Japan
-10-505
10152025303540
1 10 100 1,000 10,000
先進国 新興国・途上国
(Export size, $100 million)
(Annual average change in 2000s, %) Developed countries
Emerging and developing countries
14
Fig. 19 Breakdown of Global Companies’ R&D Spending (professional services)
Fig. 17 U.S. Direct Investment in Emerging Countries (all industries)
Chapter 2, Section 3. Emerging Economies and Global Companies
Fig. 21 Future FDI Destination Candidates
Direct investment has been robust not only in China but also in other emerging countries. Emerging countries’ presence is expanding. Some direct investment is shifting from China to other emerging economies including India. (Figs. 16-18)
Global companies have reflected China’s changing roles in their operations, decelerating research and development spending growth in China. (Figs. 19-20)
The presence of developed countries including European countries has been declining. But foreign direct investment trends indicate that investors are returning to developed countries such as the USA. (Fig. 21)
Fig. 16 Changes in Global Companies’ Overseas Tangible Fixed Assets (manufacturers)
Fig. 18 Overseas Shares in Value Added for Global Companies
Fig. 20 Trends of Global Companies’ R&D Spending
-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
香港
トルコ
フィリピン
マレーシア
インド
タイ
メキシコ
中国
（寄与度、％）
-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
南アフリカ
ナイジェリア
エジプト
チリ
ペルー
インドネシア
コロンビア
アルゼンチン
ベネズエラ
ロシア
ブラジル
（寄与度、％）
03年→07年07年→11年
07年→11年03年→07年
China
Mexico
Thailand
India
Malaysia
Philippines
Turkey
Hong Kong
Brazil Russia
Venezuela Argentina Colombia
Indonesia Peru
Chili Egypt
Nigeria South Africa
2007-2011
2003-2007
(Contributions, %) (Contributions, %)
2003-2007
2007-2011
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
南アフリカ
ベネズエラ
アルゼンチン
インド
ブラジル
中国
香港
メキシコ
（億ドル）
12～13年平均
06～07年平均
Mexico
Hong Kong
China
Brazil
India
Argentina
Venezuela
South Africa
($100 million)
2012-2013 average
2006-2007 average
インド
中国
トルコ メキシコ
マレーシア
タイロシア
アルゼンチ
ン
ブラジルインドネシ
ア
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2003 07 11 2003 07 11 2003 07 11 2003 07 11
製造業計 機械 電気機器 輸送機器
（年）
（％）
China
Mexico
Thailand
India
Malaysia
Turkey
Indonesia Brazil
Russia Argentina
(Year) Manufacturers
(total) Machinery Electrical
machinery Transportation
machinery
英国
22%
イスラエ
ル
13%
インド
13%ドイツ
8%
中国
7%
カナダ
7%
ベルギー
4%
日本
3%
その他
23%
China
Japan
UK
Israel
India
Germany
Canada
Belgium
Others
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7（寄与度、％）
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
ブラジル インド 中国
（寄与度、％）
07年→11年
03年→07年
製造業（左軸）
専門サービス（右軸）
インド 中国India India China China Brazil
(Contributions, %) (Contributions, %)
2007-2011
2003-2007
Manufacturers (left scale)
Professional services
(right scale)
13～15年
07～09年
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
中国
アメリカ
インド
インドネシア
ブラジル
ロシア
ベトナム
（シェア、％）
China
USA
India
Indonesia
Brazil
Russia
Vietnam
(Share, %)
2007-2009
2013-2015
Chapter 2, Section 4. Conclusion
In the 2000s, economies accelerated in China and other emerging countries. After the global financial crisis, emerging countries have decelerated their growth tempo. Factors behind the deceleration include China’s economic slowdown, unstable international finance and slower globalization. Even under such situation, some emerging countries are following the expansion of China’s economy.
China is shifting from the international division of labor, where it imports intermediate goods from Japan and South Korea and exports final goods to Europe and North America, to the vertical division, where it exports intermediate and final consumer goods to other emerging countries. Amid the shift, India and such Southeast Asian countries as Indonesia following China are taking over China’s role.
In line with supply chain changes, global companies sell a wide range of products and expand employment in emerging countries, while shifting overseas assets and R&D spending back to developed countries. Global companies from emerging countries are increasing their presence.
15