world electricity in year 2050 from optimal power systems dot com

8/9/2019 World Electricity in Year 2050 From Optimal Power Systems Dot Com

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WORLD ELECTRICITYIN THE YEAR 2050

Asko Vuorinen


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World electricity in the year 2050Contents

Electricity generation today Electricity consumption forecast

Trends in power plant construction

Follow the trend scenario a)

Nuclear renesance scenario b)

Optimal scenario c)


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Electricity generation in theworld today (2005)


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Electricity in the world todayAssumptions

The actual capacities of different typeof power plants in year 2005 are used

Hyphothetical situation where all

plants would be in a single system The plants would operate in merit

order by variable costs

The lowest variable cost plantsoperate on the base load and highestcost plants in the peak load


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Electricitity in the world todayLoad duration curve in 2005

Electrical Load Duration Curve 2005

(Base)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

525

050

0

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

8760

(h/a)

(GW)

Ind GT

AD GT

Diesel Eng.

HFO 2

Gas Eng.

GTCC

Coal

Nuclear

Bio-oil

Biomass

HFO 1

CHP

Wind

Hydro


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Electricity in the world todayCapacities and generation

Capacity Load LoadGW TWh %

--------------------------------------------------------------

Base load plants* 1660 8600 50 %

Coal power plants 1000 6500 38 %Gas plants 880 2000 12 %Peaking oil plants 600 100 < 1 %--------------------------------------------------------------

Total 4140 17200 100%

* The base load plants include here hydro, wind, CHP,Biomass, bio-oil and nuclear


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Forecast of electricityconsumption in 2050


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Forecast of electricity consumptionin the year 2050, Methods

Collect the actual consumption figuresfrom last ten years from different partsof the world

Calculate the trend of consumptionusing linear fit of actual figures

Estimate the consumtion in the year

2050 using the trend


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Forecast of electricity consumptionin the year 2050World electricity consumption

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

(TWh)

Rest of Asia

China

Africa

Middle-East

Europe

S&C America

North-America


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Forecast of electricity consumptionin the year 2050 (TWh)

2005 2050 Growth

North-America 5066 8630 70%S&C America 951 2185 130%

Europe 5102 8726 71%

Middle-East 614 1822 197%

Africa 546 1315 141%

China 2475 8531 245%

Rest of Asia 3431 8194 139%

World total 18185 39404 117%

Electricity consumption will more than double by 2050Consumtion in China and Middle-East will trible

North-America, Europe and China will each consume

22 % of all electricity generated in the world in 2050


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Trends in power plantconstruction


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Trends in power plant constructionMethods

Study orders of power planttechnologies for last ten years

Calculate trend using linear fit of points

Estimate future orders using the trend


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Trends in power plant constructionOrders of gas turbines

Orders of Gas Turbines (above 1 MW)

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

(MW)

Actual

Trend


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Trends in power plant constructionOrders of internal combustion engines

Orders of Internal Combustion Engines

(above 1 MW unit size)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

(MW)

Actual

Trend


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Orders of oil fired internal combustionengines

Orders of Oil fired Internal Combustion Engines

(above 1 MW)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

(MW)

Actual

Trend


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Orders of gas and dual-fuel firedinternal combustion engines

Orders of Gas and Dual-Fuel fired

Internal Combustion Engines (above 1 MW)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

(MW)

Actual

Trend


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Trends in power plant constructionConsumption of coal

Coal Consumption in the World

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(Mtoe)

Actual Mtoe Trend MW


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Trends in power plant constructionCapacity additions of nuclear power plants

Capacity additions of nuclear power plants

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(MW)

Actual MW Trend MW


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Trends in power plant constructionCapacity additions of wind turbines

Capacity additions of wind turbines

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(MW)

Actual MW Trend MW


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Trends in power plant constructionSummary

Capacity additions of gas turbines,coal and nuclear plants stay stable

Orders of internal combustion engines

increase by 1000 MW each year Capacity additions of wind turbines

increase by 1000 MW annually


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Scenario a)

Business as usual


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Scenario a) Business as usualStrategy

The present trend of increasingcapacity additions continues to 2020

After 2020 capacity additions stay atconstant level


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Scenario a) Business as usualCapacity additions

Capacity additions of power plants

Scenario a) Business as usual

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

(MW)

ICE 0.5-1 MW

ICE-lfo

ICE-hfo

ICE-gas

Small GT

Large GT

Steam t. CC

Steam t. SC

Nuclear

Wind

Hydro


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Scenario a) Business as usualLoad duration curve in 2050


Scenario a) Business as usual

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1000

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525

050

0

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

8760

(h/a)

(GW)

Ind GT

AD GT

Diesel Eng.

HFO 2

Gas Eng.

GTCC

Coal

Nuclear

Bio-oil

Biomass

HFO 1CHP

Wind

Hydro


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Scenario a) Business as usualPower generation in 2050

Capacity Load Load

GW TWh %----------------------------------------------------------------------Base load plants* 3800 17300 47 %Coal power plants 1600 7700 33 %

Gas plants 2100 4300 19 %Peaking oil plants 1200 100


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Scenario a) Business as usualSummary

The power system structure remainsabout the same

Coal, oil and gas fired plants will

generate >50 % of world electricity The CO2-emissions will be 16500

million tons or double of present level*

* Present emission level has been given in system 2005(slide 6) to be 7900 million tons CO2


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Scenario b)

Nuclear expansion


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Scenario b) Nuclear expansionStrategy

Building of coal fired condensing andgas fired GTCC plant is stopped

Coal and GTCC capacity additionshave been replaced by nuclear plants


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Scenario b) Nuclear expansionCapacity additions


Scenario b) Nuclear expansion

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

(MW)

ICE 0.5-1 MW

ICE-lfo

ICE-hfo

ICE-gas

Small GT

Large GT

Steam t. CC

Steam t. SC

Nuclear

WindHydro


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Scenario b) Nuclear expansionLoad duration curve in 2050


Scenario b) Nuclear expansion

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

525

050

0

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

8760

(h/a)

(GW)

Ind GT

AD GT

Diesel Eng.

HFO 2

Gas Eng.

GTCC

Coal

Nuclear

Bio-oil

Biomass

HFO 1

CHP

Wind

Hydro


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Scenario b) Nuclear expansionPower generation in 2050

Capacity Load Load




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Scenario b) Nuclear expansionSummary

Base load plants will have of capacityand will generate 95 % of electricity in theworld

Coal, oil and gas fired plants will have 1/4 ofcapacity and will generate 5 % of electricity

CO2-emissions will be 3300 million tons or60 % less than today


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Scenario c)

Optimal power system


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Scenario c) Optimal power systemStrategy

Wind and internal combustion engineexpansion continues with theincreasring trend to 2050

Annual capacity additions of CHP andbiofuel plants double

Nuclear plants take the rest of

capacity of coal and gas fired baseload plants


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Scenario c) Optimal power systemCapacity additions


Scenario c) Optimal system

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

(MW)

ICE 0.5-1 MW

ICE-lfo

ICE-hfo

ICE-gas

Small GT

Large GT

Steam t. CC

Steam t. SC

Nuclear

WindHydro


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Scenario c) Optimal power systemLoad duration curve in 2050


Scenario c) Optimal system

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1000

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5000

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525

050

0

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

8760

(h/a)

(GW)

Ind GT

AD GT

Diesel Eng.

HFO 2

Gas Eng.GTCC

Coal

Nuclear

Bio-oil

Biomass

HFO 1

CHP

Wind

Hydro


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Scenario c) Optimal power systemPower generation in 2050

Capacity Load Load




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Scenario c) Optimal power systemSummary

Base load power plants will have 2/3 of

capacity and will generate 88 % of worldelectricity

Coal, oil and gas fired power plants willhave 1/3 of capacity and will generate 12 %of world electricity

CO2-emissions will be 5400 million tons or30 % less than today


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Summary and conclusions

The consumption of electricity in 2050 will be

more than two times of the present level

If the present trend of construction of powerplants continues, the CO2-emissions will also

double (Scenario A) In scenario C) CO2-emissions can be reduced

by 30 % from the present level

This can be achieved by stopping building coaland gas fired base load plants and by buildingof wind, nuclear and CHP-plants insteadt


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For details see reference text book

Planning of Optimal Power Systems

www.optimalpowersystems.com

Author:

Asko Vuorinen

Publisher:

Ekoenergo Oy

Printed:

2007 in Finland

Book and programs

are available at

world electricity in year 2050 from optimal power systems dot com

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