Earth Resources: Threat or Treat? Global Launch Event of the International Year of Planet EarthUNESCO – Paris – February 13, 2008

World Energy Prospects According to Total

Thierry Desmarest Chairman of Total

#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 1

What can we do ?

Demand

Earth resources

Earth Energy Resources: Threat or Treat ?

#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 2

Source : UN, World Population Prospects. IEA. Total

OECD Non-OECD

Energy demand

Trillions (2000$)

GDP (in real terms)

20

40

60

80

1980 2005 2030

3.6%

4.9%

2.2%

Population

Average growth/year2005-2030

1%

2

4

6

8

10

1980 2005 2030

Billions

1.2%

0.2%

MBoe/d

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 2005 2030

1.2%

1.8%

1.7%

0.6%

…driven by population growth and economic development

World energy demand is set to increase…

#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 3

-2

2

6

10

14

Power Industry Transportation

Other developing countries including Middle EastDeveloping Asia incl. China

FSU

OECD

Incremental world oil demand by region and sector, 2005-2030 Mb/d

Residential

Source : IEA World Energy Outlook, Total

The number of cars in non-OECD countries, mainly Asian, will be multiplied by 3 (from 200 to 600 million) over the next 25 years

Oil demand mainly driven by transportation

#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 4

Sources: Total, AIEAlternative Policy Scenario

Incremental world gas demand by region, 2005-2030

+1.4 Tcm

Developing Asia incl. China28%

FSU10%

Other dev countriesincluding

Middle-East35%

OECD27%

120

160

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Electricity

Transportation

IndustryHeating

2002-2030growth: +3,2% paenergygrowth: +1,7% paGHG emissiongrowth: +1,7% paFossilfuels = 80% ofprimaryenergygrowth

0

40

80

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Electricity

TransportationIndustry

Heating

IEA primary energy consumption by segment

2005 2015 2030

Coal and gas are the main fuels used for power generation.Renewables are expected to increase their share 39%

22%

45%

22%

46%

21%

132

112

89

17%3%

16%

3%

boe/dayAnnual growth rate,

2005-203017%

12%

Gas demand mainly driven by power generation, the fastest-growing energy demand segment

Renewables

Hydroelectricity

Nuclear

Oil

Natural gas

Coal

(+5.6%)

(+2.0%)

(+0.7%)

(- 0.7%)

(+2.5%)

(+2.1%)

#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 5

What can we do ?

Demand

Earth resources

Earth Energy Resources: Threat or Treat ?

#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 6

ConventionalOil

Extra Heavy Oil

… but are strongly concentrated in the Middle East

Oil resources* (Bb)

Conventional oil Extra-heavy oil

1100

~ 600

< 600

> 600

Resources

Proved Reserves

Reserve growth

Yet-to-find

North America

South America

Africa

Europe

Middle East

CIS

Asia Pacific

Proved reserves of conventional oil and extra heavy oil (EHO) resources *

Proved oil reserves cover around 40 years of today’s demand

* Sources: IEA, USGS, Total estimates

Oil reserves and resources

#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Required capacityincrease

Producing fields decline (~5% to 6%/year)

Estimated demand growth (~1% to 1.5%/year)

Mb/d

World oil production

Increasing demand and natural decline of producing fields require~ 50 Mb/d of new production between 2005 and 2015

Mb/d = Million barrels per day

The production growth challenge

At current oil prices, producing countries do not need to increase output

Geopolitical constraints or local troubles in producing countries

New developments are complex, expensive and time-consuming

#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 8

Proved conventional gas reserves equivalent to 65 years of today’s demand

Sources : O&G Journal, USGS, IEA, HIS, Cedigaz

FSUFSU

Latin Latin AmericaAmerica

Asia Asia PacificPacific

AfricaAfrica

EuropeEuropeNorth AmericaNorth America

Middle Middle EastEast

Proved reserves of Gas

Gas reserves and resources are more widely spread

Gas ResourcesTCF

~2,000

Estimatedresources

6,340

2,000 2,000

Provedreserves

Reservegrowth

Yet-to-find

Conventional gas NonConventional

#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 9

Source : BP SR

FSU230

Latin America 22

Asia-Pacific292

Africa55

Europe125

North America258

Middle East

2

Coal reserves: ~900 Bt

Abundant coal reserves

Widely spread geographical distribution of reserves

World coal reserves represent about 200 years of today’s consumption

But the increased use of coal will have a strong impact on CO2 emissions

#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 10

1924

2836

4

5

7

10

3

9

2

3

1

1990 2005 2015 2030

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook , Alternative Policy Scenario

Annual growth2005 - 2030

+ 1.7 %+ 1.7 %

+ 8.3 %+ 8.3 %

+ 7.6 %+ 7.6 %

+ 2.5 %+ 2.5 %

Biofuels (incl BtL)

Solar, wind, etc.

Hydroelectric power

Biomass (incl. forestuse in developingcountries)

2424

3131

5858Mboe/dEstimates

4141

+ 2.6% /

+ 2.6% /yearyear..

Renewable energies will grow but account for a small share of the energy mix

#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 11

What can we do ?

Demand

Earth resources

Earth energy resources: Threat or Treat ?

#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 12

* Primary energy Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook and Total

1980 2005 2030

World energy demand* (million boe/day)

Renewables(including hydro & biomass)

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Liquids (excluding biomass)

+ 0.8% / year

2015-2030

+ 1.8% / year

2005-2015

+ 1,8% / year

+ 1,2% / year

152

43 %

17 %

25 %

13 %3 %

65

26374

20

244

35 %

21 %

25 %

13 %6 %

84

52

62

1531

328

30 %

22 %

27 %

6 %

15 %

79 %

100

73

87

1949

A long transition period in energy supply: 80% of the energy mix still derived from fossil fuels in 2030

#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 13

Extra-heavy oil

RecoveryUpgradingProcess integrationEnergy and CO2

Gas solutionsSour gas, CO2 and H2S treatment LNGChemical conversion: GTL, etc.

Deepwater

Multi-phase subseainstallations

International oil companies rely on technology to produce new fields in extreme conditions and to enhance recovery rates from existing fields

Enhanced oil recovery

Polymer injectionChemical methods: solvents,etc.

Advanced technology to meet energy demand

#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 14

CO2 emissions by sector CO2 emissions : potential savings

GtonCO2

Demand efficiency measures

Improved efficiency in the power generation sector

Increased renewables

Increased Nuclear

65%

12%13%

10%

IEA Alternative Policy Scenario

IEA Reference Scenario

26

30

34

38

42

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

5

10

15

20

1990 2005 2030

Power generationIndustryTransportResidential and servicesOther

GtonCO2

Everyone must contribute to more efficient energy use and to CO2 emission reductions

Fossil fuels (incl. coal) account for 59% of GHG emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions: a critical challenge for sustainable growth

#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 15

A way to limit the environmental impact of

growing fossil fuel demand

Lacq : first complete CO2 capture and storage project in Europe

#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 16

Conclusion

Importance of promoting energy efficient solutions to save natural resources and limit CO2 emissions

The critical challenge is reconciling two up to now conflicting targets: meeting energy demand and protecting the climate

Oil and gas likely to account for more than 50% of world primary energy consumption in 2030

Develop technical solutions such as CCS to limit related emissions

Diversify the energy mix Necessary development of alternative / renewable energy options such as nuclear power, biomass, photovoltaic and other renewables to secure the future