world feed overview

8/3/2019 World Feed Overview

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IFIF/FAO Business MeetingIFIF/FAO Business Meeting -- Rome 2006Rome 2006

AgricultureAgriculture

and theand theAnimal Feed IndustryAnimal Feed Industry


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IntroductionIntroduction

World population and GDP growth driving meat consumption,World population and GDP growth driving meat consumption,more meat means more grain feed demand and animalmore meat means more grain feed demand and animal

feed supplements are risingfeed supplements are rising

Global customers have greater buying power and feed grainGlobal customers have greater buying power and feed grainraw material prices have been favorable but changes are inraw material prices have been favorable but changes are in

store for the global poultry and livestock industry the resultstore for the global poultry and livestock industry the result

of the boom in ethanol and biodiesel production.of the boom in ethanol and biodiesel production.

Health and Food Safety concerns are putting pressure onHealth and Food Safety concerns are putting pressure onbetter quality feed ingredientsbetter quality feed ingredients

There is growing concern with environmental issues in animalThere is growing concern with environmental issues in animalagricultureagriculture


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Source: United Nations, FAOSource: United Nations, FAO

Million TonnesMillion Tonnes

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

World Population

World Meat Consumption

World Population Growth and Meat ConsumptionWorld Population Growth and Meat Consumption

Billion PeopleBillion People


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Source: United NationsSource: United Nations

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Billion People

Developing Countries

Developed Countries

World PopulationWorld Population

ForecastBillion PeopleBillion People


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Source: IMF September 2006Source: IMF September 2006

World Economic Growth 2005World Economic Growth 2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

67

8

9

10

11

China India Indonesia Malaysia World Thailand Brazil

Percent Annual GDP GrowthPercent Annual GDP Growth


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Source: FAOSource: FAO

World Per Capita Meat ConsumptionWorld Per Capita Meat Consumption

20

25

30

35

40

45

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Kg/Person/YearKg/Person/Year


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Kg/Person/YearKg/Person/Year

World Per Capita Meat Consumption by RegionWorld Per Capita Meat Consumption by Region

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

North America

DevelopedWorld

Latin America

World

DevelopingWorld

Asia

Africa


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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1995 2015 2030

Developed Developing

World Meat Consumption 1995World Meat Consumption 1995 -- 20302030

Million Tonnes


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Source: Brilliant Pioneer ConsultantSource: Brilliant Pioneer Consultant

Chinas Meat Consumption 2005Chinas Meat Consumption 2005 -- 20302030

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2005

2010

2020

2030

2005

2010

2020

2030

2005

2010

2020

2030

2005

2010

2020

2030

2005

2010

2020

2030

Million TonnesMillion Tonnes

BeefBeef PoultryPoultry

PorkPork

DairyDairy

EggsEggs


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Source: Feed International January 2006Source: Feed International January 2006

290

370

440

537

590 597605

575586 591

597 604612 614

626

200

300

400

500

600

700

1975 1985 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

World Compound Feed ProductionWorld Compound Feed ProductionMillion TonnesMillion Tonnes


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Source: USDASource: USDA

USMeat Production and ExportsUSMeat Production and Exports

0

6

12

18

24

30

36

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006E

Beef Production Pork Production

Broiler Production Beef Exports

Pork Exports Broiler Exports

Billion lbsBillion lbs


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Chinas Meat Production and ExportsChinas Meat Production and Exports

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006E




000 Tonnes CWE000 Tonnes CWE


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Brazils Meat Production and ExportsBrazils Meat Production and Exports

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006E




000 Tonnes CWE000 Tonnes CWE


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Source: Earth Policy Institute, Renewable Fuels AssociationSource: Earth Policy Institute, Renewable Fuels Association

World Ethanol andBiodiesel ProductionWorld Ethanol andBiodiesel Production

Billion GallonsBillion Gallons

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

World Ethanol World Biodiesel


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Source: USDA, PotashCorpSource: USDA, PotashCorp

USCorn Used for EthanolUSCorn Used for Ethanol

Billion BushelsBillion Bushels

-0.2

0.2

0.6

1.0

1.4

1.8

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

88/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07F 11/12F

18%18%

6%6%

% of total US% of total US

corn usecorn use

2525--30%30%


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World Grain ConsumptionWorld Grain Consumption

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

Food Animal Feed & Other Uses

B i l li o n T o n n e s 1965 1996 2030F

60%45%

Billion TonnesBillion Tonnes

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

Food Animal Feed & Other Uses

B i l l i o n T o n n e s 1965 1996 2030F


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Source: USDA September 2006Source: USDA September 2006

World Grain Production and ConsumptionWorld Grain Production and Consumption

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1982/83 1985/86 1988/89 1991/92 1994/95 1997/98 2000/01 2003/04 2006/07F

Production

Consumption

Billion Tonnes

US, China and India produce

over 40% of the worlds wheat

and coarse grains.

Near Perfect

Weather Year

Production Gap

Wheat & Coarse GrainsWheat & Coarse Grains


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World Grain StocksWorld Grain Stocks

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1974/75 1978/79 1982/83 1986/87 1990/91 1994/95 1998/99 2002/03 2006/07F10

15

20

25

30

35

40Year-End Grain Stocks

Stocks-to-Use Ratio

Million Tonnes Percent

USDAs estimated grain ending stocks-to-

use ratio of 15.5% for 2006/07 will be the

lowest in over 30 years.

Wheat & Coarse GrainsWheat & Coarse Grains


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Chinas Corn Supply and DemandChinas Corn Supply and Demand

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

86/87

88/89

90/91

92/93

94/95

96/97

98/99

00/01

02/03

04/05

06/07F

Production

Exports

Consumption

Stocks

Million Tonnes

Stocks

Continue

to Fall

Production Gap

Exports

Declining

Favorable

Production Years


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Thank YouThank You

world feed overview

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