World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision Volume I: Comprehensive Tables

United Nations New York, 2011

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ST/ESA/SER.A/313 Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division

World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision

Volume I: Comprehensive Tables

United Nations New York, 2011

DESA The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is a vital interface between global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres and national action. The Department works in three main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social and environmental data and information on which States Members of the United Nations draw to review common problems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member States in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing or emerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and, through technical assistance, helps build national capacities.

Note The designations employed in this report and the material presented in it do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures. This publication has been issued without formal editing. Suggested citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables. ST/ESA/SER.A/313.

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PREFACE

This report presents the highlights of the results of the 2010 Revision of the official United Nations population estimates and projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. The 2010 Revision constitutes the twenty second round of the global population estimates and projections produced by the Population Division since 1951. The 2010 Revision breaks new ground in the production of population projections. It is the first standard Revision to include projections up to 2100 for all countries and areas of the world. Previous Revisions presented country projections only for the period ending in 2050. In order to extend the projection period to 2100, a new method for the projection of fertility had to be developed. The method used in the 2010 Revision is based on the advances made in projecting fertility since the 2000 Revision, advances that have been combined with a probabilistic approach to yield the future paths of fertility used in producing the medium variant of the 2010 Revision. The standard output of the 2010 Revision does not, however, include fully probabilistic projections. The standard output of the 2010 Revision includes only the usual projection variants and scenarios included in other Revisions of World Population Prospects. The full results of the 2010 Revision are presented in two volumes. The first volume provides comprehensive tables displaying key demographic indicators for each development group, major area, region and country for selected periods or dates within 1950-2100. The second volume contains demographic profiles presenting time series and plots covering the period from 1950 to 2100 for selected indicators for each country with at least 100,000 inhabitants in 2010 as well as for development groups, major areas and regions. This volume provides, for each country and area, a brief description of the data sources and demographic methods used to make the base-year estimates for each country or area. Key findings of the 2010 Revision are also included in each volume together with the projections assumptions, and a wall chart provides summary indicators for the most recent period. The detailed results of the 2010 Revision are made available through a variety of media. The Population Divisions website provides access to the comprehensive data organized in Excel files as well as to an interactive database allowing the user to obtain specific information on a few countries at a time. The website can be accessed at www.unpopulation.org. Users requiring the complete results of the 2010 Revision can purchase them on CD-ROM/DVD. A description of the data contained in the different CD-ROMs available and an order form are posted on the Population Divisions web site. Responsibility for the 2010 Revision rests with the Population Division. In preparing the 2010 Revision, the Population Division relied on the collaboration of the regional commissions, especially the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, and that of UNAIDS, the specialized agencies and other relevant bodies of the United Nations system. The Statistics Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, through its United Nations Demographic Yearbook and its accompanying databases, provided access to official national population statistics used in the preparation of the 2010 Revision. The Population Division is grateful for the contributions made by all these entities. For further information about the 2010 Revision, please contact Ms. Hania Zlotnik, Director, Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY 10017, USA (Fax: 1 212 963 2147).

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CONTENTS Page Preface ............................................................................................................................................................ iii Explanatory Notes ............................................................................................................................................. viii Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................ xv Chapters I. WORLD POPULATION TRENDS .............................................................................................................. 1 A. Population size and growth .......................................................................................................... 1 B. Population age composition ......................................................................................................... 3 II. FERTILITY ............................................................................................................................................ 11 III. MORTALITY AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS ............................................................... 17 A. Trends and prospects in world mortality ........................................................................................ 17 B. The demographic impact of AIDS .................................................................................................. 18 IV. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION ................................................................................................................ 25 V. ASSUMPTIONS UNDERLYING THE 2010 REVISION ................................................................................ 27 A. Fertility assumptions: convergence toward total fertility below replacement level ..................... 27 B. Mortality assumptions: increasing life expectancy except when affected by HIV/AIDS ............ 35 C. International migration assumptions ............................................................................................ 37 D. Eight projection variants .............................................................................................................. 37 E. Methodological changes introduced in the 2010 Revision ........................................................... 38 VI. ORDERING THE DATA ON CD-ROM ..................................................................................................... 41 VII. LIST OF PREVIOUS REVISION ................................................................................................................. 77 VIII. SUMMARY TABLES .............................................................................................................................. 79

TABLES No. Page I.1. Population of the world, major development groups and major areas, 1950, 1975, 2011, 2050 and 2100, according to different variants ............................................................................................ 2 I.2. Percentage distribution of the world population by development group and major area, estimates and projections according to different variants, 1950-2100 ................................................ 2 I.3. Average annual rates of change of the population of the world and major areas, 1950-1980, 1980-2011, 2011-2050 and 2050-2100 for different variants .................................................................. 5 I.4. Median age in years for the world and major areas, 1950, 1980, 2011, 2050 and 2100, according to different variants ............................................................................................................. 5 I.5. Average annual rates of change of the total population and the population in broad age groups by major area, 2011-2050 and 2050-2100 ........................................................................................... 7 I.6. Distribution of the popula