World supply and World supply and demand of tilapiademand of tilapia

Helga Josupeit

Rome

INFOFISH Tilapia Conference,

Kuala Lumpur, October 2010

OutlineOutline

• world productionworld production

• world exports, world exports, – with special emphasis on Chinawith special emphasis on China

• world importsworld imports– with special emphasis on the US marketwith special emphasis on the US market

• Forecast for 2015Forecast for 2015

• SummarySummary

World tilapia production

0.00.51.0

1.52.02.53.0

3.54.0

1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

millio

n ton

nes capture

aquaculture

Source FISHSTAT+

Tilapia production by major Tilapia production by major countriescountries

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

millions of tonnes

Others

Thailand

Uganda

Philippines

Indonesia

Egypt

China

World tilapia production by species

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Mil

lon

de

ton

elad

as

Others

Tilapias nei

Nile tilapia

Tilapia of Mozambique

755000

340000

170000

70000

22000

8000

Aquaculture production

1200000

900000130000

150000

430000

9000

2008

Tilapia Aquaculture Tilapia Aquaculture production production

(2008, by region, in tonnes)(2008, by region, in tonnes)

755000

340000

170000

70000

22000

8000

Aquaculture production

1200000

900000

130000

150000

430000

9000

2008

2000

Aquaculture production Aquaculture production (2000 versus 2008, (2000 versus 2008, by region, in tonnes)by region, in tonnes)

Trade flow, China 2009 Trade flow, China 2009 (in tonnes)(in tonnes)

134000134000

1880018800

3600036000

2200022000

Total Chinese tilapia exports: 259 000 tonnes

2000020000

66006600

Chinese tilapia exportsChinese tilapia exports

  .......................Jan-Dec.......................   ..........Jan-Jun..........

  2007 2008 2009   2008 2009 2010

(1000 tonnes)        

USA 122.0 118.6 134.4   50.8 55.6 66.5

Mexico 39.3 36.5 36.2   17.9 17.5 21.4

Russia 19.3 17.1 21.9   9.4 10.3 9.9

Israel 4.1 4.2 6.6   1.3 1.8 2.8

Germany 1.2 1.7 2.0   0.8 0.8 1.3

Hong Kong 1.5 0.3 1.1   0.2 0.3 0.6

Belgium 1.4 2.3 1.6   0.8 0.7 1.1

Puerto Rico 1.3 1.7 1.2   0.6 0.6 0.7

Dominican Rep. 1.4 0.5 1.0   0.1 0.6 0.6

Canada 0.7 0.6 2.4   0.3 0.8 1.1

Others 23.0 40.9 49.7   14.1 14.2 31.3

Total 215.2 224.4 258.1   96.3 103.2 137.3

Trade flow estimates, Trade flow estimates, excluding China 2009 excluding China 2009

(in tonnes)(in tonnes)

93009300

1270012700

1550015500

1000010000

20002000

Total tilapia exports excluding China : 40 000 tonnes

Trade flow estimates Trade flow estimates 2006-2009 comparison (in tonnes)2006-2009 comparison (in tonnes)

104000104000

1200012000

1240012400 215002150010001000

50005000

80008000

500500

10001000

170000 USA, Canada 170000 USA, Canada and Mexicoand Mexico

2006200620092009

40000 (Russia + EU)40000 (Russia + EU)

202020002000

1000010000

111550015500

93009300

1270012700

Trade flow estimates Trade flow estimates 2009 (in tonnes)2009 (in tonnes)

increase by 70%increase by 70%

2006200620092009

huge increasehuge increase

double double

moderate increasemoderate increase

disappeareddisappeared

sharp sharp declinedecline

sharp declinesharp decline

stablestabledisappeareddisappeared

Import estimates 2009 Import estimates 2009 (in tonnes, product (in tonnes, product

weight)weight)

70007000

2200022000

2100021000

4000040000

183000183000

10001000

2000020000

US tilapia importsUS tilapia imports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Jan-Ju

ne 2

009

Jan-Ju

ne 2

010

Whole frozenFrozen filletsFresh fillets

1000

tonn

es

US tilapia importsUS tilapia imports

  .......................Jan-Dec.......................   ..........Jan-Jun..........

  2007 2008 2009   2008 2009 2010

(1000 tonnes)      

China 120.0 119.3 130.4 52.5 56.8 68.8

Indonesia 8.6 9.8 8.8 4.9 4.0 4.6

Taiwan PC 16.1 18.6 15.7 9.9 8.5 8.6

Ecuador 12.5 9.2 10.2 4.9 5.3 4.5

Thailand 0.2 3.7 1.6 1.9 0.8 1.5

Honduras 7.9 8.3 6.5 4.5 3.2 3.5

Costa Rica 4.8 5.6 5.7 2.9 2.9 3.2

Others 3.6 4.9 4.5 2.7 2.4 2.4

Total 173.7 179.4 183.4   84.2 83.9 97.0

Source: GLOBEFISH

Frozen tilapia fillets in the Frozen tilapia fillets in the US wholesale market US wholesale market

(US$/lb)(US$/lb)

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

J-98 J-99 J-00 J-01 J-02 J-03 J-04 J-05 J-06 j-07 j-08 j-09 j-10

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

J-97 J-98 J-99 J-00 J-01 J-02 J-03 J-04 J-05 J-06 j-07 j-08 j-09 j-10

Fresh tilapia fillets in the Fresh tilapia fillets in the US wholesale market US wholesale market

(US$/lb)(US$/lb)

Supply estimates 2009 Supply estimates 2009 (in tonnes, liveweight (in tonnes, liveweight

equivalent)equivalent)

2100021000

6600066000

5600056000

190000190000

480000480000

130000130000

500000500000

9450009450001200012000

70007000

950000950000

Past Supply trendsPast Supply trends

imports imports growinggrowing

supply supply growinggrowing

supply supply limitedlimited

domestic production stagnant, one domestic production stagnant, one third of supply from importsthird of supply from imports

imports growing, all imports growing, all supply from importssupply from imports

supply mainly from domestic supply mainly from domestic production, which is growing, production, which is growing, exports decliningexports declining

more than half of more than half of production goes to exports, production goes to exports, production stabilizesproduction stabilizes

production production growing, almost growing, almost

no exports, no exports, limited importslimited imports

imports stable, all imports stable, all supply from importssupply from imports

some some small small importsimports

production growing production growing strongly, mainly for strongly, mainly for

domestic marketdomestic market

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0millions of tonnes

Others

Thailand

Uganda

Philippines

Indonesia

Egypt

China

Tilapia forecast – scenario 1:Tilapia forecast – scenario 1:no further growth in Chinano further growth in China

forecast2015: 4.6 million tonnes2015: 4.6 million tonnes

Tilapia forecast – scenario 2:Tilapia forecast – scenario 2:growth in Chinagrowth in China

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

millions of tonnes

Others

Thailand

Uganda

Philippines

Indonesia

Egypt

China

forecast2015: 5 million tonnes2015: 5 million tonnes

Supply trends – 2015Supply trends – 2015

imports imports stablestable

supply supply stablestable

supply supply limitedlimited

domestic production stagnant, half domestic production stagnant, half of supply from importsof supply from imports

imports stable, all supply imports stable, all supply from importsfrom imports

supply mainly from domestic supply mainly from domestic production, which is growing, production, which is growing, exports almost nilexports almost nil

more than half of more than half of production goes to exports, production goes to exports, production stabilizesproduction stabilizes

production production growing, almost growing, almost

no exports, no exports, limited importslimited imports

imports declining, all imports declining, all supply from importssupply from imports

some some small small importsimports

production growing production growing strongly, mainly for strongly, mainly for

domestic marketdomestic market

Overall: supply in developed countries will stabilize,Overall: supply in developed countries will stabilize,increased production all for Asian and Latin American marketincreased production all for Asian and Latin American market

World tilapia exportsWorld tilapia exports• Trade relatively unimportant, but Trade relatively unimportant, but

expandingexpanding• Total world trade can be estimated at Total world trade can be estimated at

300 000 MT (product weight), which is 300 000 MT (product weight), which is double the figure of only three years agodouble the figure of only three years ago

• China by far main exporter. accounting China by far main exporter. accounting for almost 90% of total exportsfor almost 90% of total exports

• Share of China in total trade growingShare of China in total trade growing

Outlook for tilapia supplyOutlook for tilapia supply

• Supply continues to expand, especially in South Supply continues to expand, especially in South East AsiaEast Asia

• Some increases in Latin AmericaSome increases in Latin America• China will increase presence on market, China will increase presence on market,

especially targeting Europeespecially targeting Europe• However, the production in China likely to However, the production in China likely to

stabilizestabilize• More value addition in developing countriesMore value addition in developing countries• Investment by foreign companies in tilapia farmsInvestment by foreign companies in tilapia farms

Outlook for tilapia demandOutlook for tilapia demand

• Demand is strong and growing in the USADemand is strong and growing in the USA

• Very good market in Latin AmericaVery good market in Latin America

• Demand in Europe still slow, and as the market Demand in Europe still slow, and as the market is well supplied with pangasius and Nile perch, is well supplied with pangasius and Nile perch, unlikely that there will be a strong growthunlikely that there will be a strong growth

• Demand in South East strong, and supplied by Demand in South East strong, and supplied by domestic and regional tradedomestic and regional trade

Thank you for your kind attentionThank you for your kind attention