world water week - asia day - presentation cchartres

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Challenges for Water Management in

Asia

Colin Chartres

Director General

International Water Management Institute

The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the AsianDevelopment Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy ofthe data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may notnecessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.



Contents

• Drivers of the food crisis in Asia

• Do we have enough water to produce therequired food?• What impact will climate change have on

Asian water resources and foodproduction?• What are the adaptive management

strategies that we need to develop toovercome water and food crises?



The extent of rural poverty in Asia

Source: World Development Report, 2008



How can raising agriculturalproductivity help?



What can we conclude from the currentstate of agricultural development?

• Still very large numbers of rural poor

particularly in southern Asia• They can be helped as can GDP by

targeted public investment – currently thisis relatively low in the agricultural countries



50

100

150

200

250

2000M 1 2001M 1 2002M 1 2003M 1 2004M 1 2005M 1 2006M 1 2007M 1 2008

Nominal US dollars

Real, i.e. relative to developing countries’ CPI

Source: World Bank, DECPG

International food price indices, 2000=100

Food Prices



What is causing the world food crisis?

• Income growth and dietary change, climatechange, high energy prices, globalization and

urbanization are transforming food consumption,production and markets (von Braun (2008)

• Slow growing supply, low stocks and supply

shocks at a time of surging demand for feed,food and fuel have lead to drastic priceincreases

• Biofuel production has further impacted thesituation and disproportionately affects the poorthrough price level and volatility effects



Drivers of water demand

What are the driving forces?

• Growing population (6.5 b now to c.9b in 2050)

• Dietary change

• Urbanization

• Biofuel production

• Need for environmental water

• Climate change

i.e. similar to the food crisis



Water Scarcity 2000

1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity



Most hungry and poor people live where waterchallenges pose a constraint to food

production



Impact of water scarcity in Asia

0

200

400

600800

1000

1200

1400

O E C D

L A

C

M E N

A

S - S a h a r

a n A f r i c

a

E . E u r o p

e , C e n t .

A s i a

E . A s i a P a

c i f i c

S o

u t h

A s i a

m i l l i o n

s

People living in areas ofeconomic water

scarcity

People living in areas of

approaching waterscarcity

People living in areas of

absolute water scarcity



URBANIZATION



URBANIZATION

• Increased demand for water for cities

• Reallocation from irrigation to cities• Cities generate more wastewater – an important

source of agricultural supplies

• Changes in dietary preferences – farmers respond todifferent demands

• Voting clout shifts – rural to urban• Cities offer jobs – competition for rural employment



Meat

China

India

Milk

China

India USA

USA

Income and Dietary Change 1961-2000



Income and Dietary Change 1961-2000

Vegetables

China

India

USA

Cereals (food)

China

India

USA



Water for Biofuels

liters of ET Liters of Irrigationwater

China 3800 2500

India 4100 3500

US 1750 300

Brazil 2250 200

Water use per liter of biofuel production



Climate Change - Projected degradationof glaciers by 2050 (Central Asia)

cited in Perelet (2007) Central Asia: Background Paper on Climate Change.http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/papers/perelet_renat.pdf

http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/papers/perelet_renat.pdf




Climate Change - Projected degradationof glaciers by 2050 (Central Asia)

• From the 1950s to the 1990s, the Pamir-Alai glaciers lost19 % of their ice, with the process now gaining inintensity.

• For several decades, the area of glaciers in differentregions of Tien Shan, Gissaro-Alai, Pamirs andDzhungarskiy and Zailiyskiy Alatau has decreased at theaverage rate of about 1 % year. According to some

model predictions, the availability of water in Syr Daryamay decrease by up to 30 % and in Amu Darya by up to40 %.

• Some other models do not predict such dramatic

declines, but no scenario shows an increase in waterflow; in all models, the demand for water grows fasterthan the natural supply.

Perelet (2007) Central Asia: Background Paper on Climate Change.






0

100

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500

600

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800

900

1000

1 9 1 1

1 9 1 7

1 9 2 3

1 9 2 9

1 9 3 5

1 9 4 1

1 9 4 7

1 9 5 3

1 9 5 9

1 9 6 5

1 9 7 1

1 9 7 7

1 9 8 3

1 9 8 9

1 9 9 5

2 0 0 1

2 0 0 4

T o

t a l a n n u a l i n

f l o w

( G L )

Annual inflow

1911–1974 (338 GL) 1975–1996 (177 GL) 1997–2004 (115 GL)

Source: WA Water Corporation.

Climate Change: a big uncertaintyInflows into Perth’s Storages



Climate Change issues – Ovens Valley,Victoria Australia

For recent climate and current development

• The average annualrainfall and runoffover the past ten

years (1997 to 2006)are 11 percent and26 percent lower

respectively than thelong-term averagevalues.

Temperature



% of potentially utilizable water withdrawn for human purposes

No water scarcityApproaching

water

scarcity

Water scarce

0% 60% 75% 100%

Water for food and feed today

Future water for food,

CA scenario

Water for biofuels*

*Assumes that 10% of gasoline demand is met by biofuels by 2030

India today and in 2030 (WaterSimanalysis by IWMI).

Biofuels: a Green solution with blue impacts?



Open Closed

Exploiting waterresources

Managing Demand

New allocations Reallocating water

Who is included andexcluded

Safeguarding right towater

Developing groundwater Regulating groundwater

Informal, formal

institutions

Informal & Formal

institutionsWithin system conflicts Cross sectoral conflicts

What happens as water suppliesdiminish?



Change in River Discharge (BCM)

6.8

10

3417.323.54.8

3.2

6.7

26.412.613.4

4.8

1971-74 1996-2001

Upper Krishna use increased by 5.3 bcm (17.3 – 12.6)

Lower Krishna by 3.5 bcm (15-9.5 bcm)



Will there be enough water to grow

food and produce biofuels?

No,unless ….

We change the way we think andact on water issues.

KEY QUESTION



How much more cereal will we have togrow?

Food demand doubles over the next 50 years because of dietand population

Water Needs (ET) will double – w ithout water productivity

gains



Significant need for more irrigated grainproduction in Asia

Grain production in 2000

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

SSA South Asia East asia OECD

g r a i n p r o d u c t i o n i n m i l l i o n t o n s

rainfed

irrigated

Grain production projected

for 2050 according to CA scenario

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

SSA South Asia East asia OECD

g r a i n p r o d u c t i o n i n m i l l i o n t o n

rainfed

irrigated



Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA

Crop water consumption to 2050

Today

Without productivity improvement

Without Water Productivity Gains,crop consumption doubles



Land and water use today - South Asia

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

without productivity

improvement

CA

irrigation

rainfed

today

Source: IWMI analysis done for the CA using the Watersim model, 2007



Land and water use today - East Asia

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

without productivity

improvement

CA

irrigation

rainfed

today

Source: IWMI analysis done for the CA using the Watersim model, 2007



SOLUTIONS

Physical

• Improved hydrologicaldata to inform decisionmaking

• Increased water storage(not just large dams)

• Improved waterproductivity

• Increasing reuse ofwastewater• Multiple objective water

management for large

storages

Institutional

• Paid environmentalservices to minimisedegradation and increaseproductivity

• Better policies,governance, institutionalframeworks, regulation ofwater

• Improved capacity forfarmers and farmergroups



Major room for improvement inirrigation productivity

Figure 4: Standardised Gross Value of Production pe r unit water consu med by ETcrop

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

U S d o l l a r p

e r m

3

* surface water and public wells ** pr ivate wells

Source: Sakthivadivel et al, 1999



Public, but not private investment inirrigation has declined

Irrigated Area

Food price index

World Bank lending forirrigation

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

40

0

Living Planet IndexFreshwater Species

Groundwater sustainability an



Groundwater sustainability – anagricultural time-bomb



Source: Döll, P., Lehner, B., Kaspar, F. (2002): Global modeling of groundwaterrecharge. In Schmitz, G.H. (ed.): Proceedings of Third InternationalConference on Water Resources and the Environment Research, TechnicalUniversity of Dresden, Germany, ISBN 3-934253-17-2, Vol. I, 27-31

Long-term averagegroundwater recharge

GW use increases whenresource endowments deplete



Sustainable Extraction

• Groundwater recharge ponds in Gujarat



Improving Water Institutions

T. Shah (2007) in Community-Based Water Law and Water Resource Management Reform in DevelopingCountries. CABI



Source: IWMI’s WaterSim analysis for the CA

Take action to deal with the watercrisis

Today

CA Scenario

Practices like today

CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgradingrainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade



An Action Agenda

• There are technical and social solutions, but they need putting into practice• This requires:

– Political leadership and goodwill; water for food has to be high on the political

agenda leading to better policies – Institutional goodwill at regional and local level; we can’t continue business as

usual, reforms are needed – Filling scientific knowledge gaps; regional and local studies on impact of

changing water availability and its impact on agriculture and livelihoods – More scientific innovation in the area of irrigated and rainfed productivity

improvement e.g improved varieties, better water management, pest and disease control)

– CSOs and NGOs understanding where they can contribute; focus on capacity building and knowledge transfer so that R4D really works

– Financing and investment from international development institutions; water as

well as food need to be on the planning agenda for future expenditure – Ensuring knowledge is promulgated; building on the knowledge hub concept – Enhanced capacity building across entire agriculture-water sectors with a focus

on farmer driven organizations that have business acumen



CONCLUSIONS

• Asia has a big task ahead to ensure food

security• Water resources will be limiting

• Productivity increases will be essential ifwe are to feed the increasing numbers ofpeople in the region

world water week - asia day - presentation cchartres

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