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Post-communist Capitalisms in Crisis:
Scenarios for Central & Eastern Europe
Forward Look 'Beyond transition'Berlin, 16 February 2011Vello Pettai, Martin Brusis
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Overview
1. why scenarios?2. drivers3. scope conditions4. scenarios across fields
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Why scenarios?
• working out future research areas in social science requires thinking about how society itself will evolve
• we can’t predict the future, but we can use foresight methods to construct varieties of that future
• scenarios help to shake up our mind, imagine a different world, analyze eventualities
Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011
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Why scenarios?
• they are not about predicting, but rather contemplating
• they are a means to an end and a heuristic device in order to generate ideas about future research agendas
• the task is to improve the scenarios, but also to take them as they are in order to stimulate thinking
Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011
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Drivers
• drivers = what are the broad, overarching processes or phenomena that will determine or affect other, narrower phenomena?
• we are focusing on CEE – a single geographic region embedded in a concrete political-economic community (the EU)
• so there are limits to what CEE itself will affect
• it is easier to identify drivers
Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011
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The drivers & their permutations
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Other drivers
• ‘European neighborhood’: RU, UKR, BLR; stability – instability
• energy: supply & demand, political dimensions, global struggles
• EU enlargement: Turkey, integration or confrontation
these could also affect CEE, but they are not included in this exercise
Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011
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Scope conditions
• irrespective of the ‘drivers’ we choose for building scenarios, there are specific aspects of CEE that constitute ‘scope conditions’ or background parameters for possible future developments
8Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011
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Scope conditions
homogeneous• consolidated political
institutions• weak civil society &
low levels of trust• ‘dependent
developmnt’
heterogeneous• varying voter-party
dealignment• diverse ethnic
situations• varieties of
capitalism
Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011
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Drivers and effects: economy Economic development
European Union
EMU Political economy
CEE capitalisms
1 Economic recovery
Working community institutions
Control + transfers
Prosperity-integration
nexus
B3 converge to V4
2 Low growth NW-SE opposition
Imposed control
Segmented dvlpmnt
Persisting VoC, no spillover
3 Stagnation Blockade Eroding standards
Decoupling Persisting VoC
4 Recession Disintegration Disintegration Industrial degrading
V4 converge to B3
Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011 10
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Drivers and effects: politicsEconomic development
European Union
EMU Party constel-lations
CEE in EU
1 Economic recovery
Working community institutions
Control + transfers
Mainstream reinforced
Cooperation
2 Low growth NW-SE opposition
Imposed control
Mainstream contested
Bargaining
3 Stagnation Blockade Eroding standards
Centrist populists emerge
Opting-out
4 Recession Disintegration Disintegration Centrist-radical
populists interact
Exiting
Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011 11
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Drivers and effects: local gov.
Economic dvlpmnt.
EMU Political economy
Party constel-lations
Local democracy
Local admini-stration
Economic recovery
Control + transfers
Prosperity-integration
nexus
Main-stream
reinforced
Multilevel governance
Expansion
Low growth Imposed control
Segmented development
Main-stream
contested
Inertia Diver-gence
Stagnation Eroding standards
Decoupling Centrist populists emerge
Instability Down-sizing
Recession Disintegration
Industrial degrading
Centrist-radical
populists interact
Centrali-zation
Down-sizing
Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011 12
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Drivers and effects: societyEconomic dvlpmnt
EMU Political economy
Party constel-lations
Social processes
Economic recovery
Control + transfers
Prosperity-integration
nexus
Main-stream
reinforced
Middle class consolidating, transnational
identities
Low growth Imposed control
Segmented development
Main-stream
contested
Persisting inequalities, segmented
labor market
Stagnation Eroding standards
Decoupling Centrist populists emerge
Rising inequalities, middle class
eroding
Recession Disintegration
Industrial degrading
Centrist-radical
populists interact
Deprivation, outmigration
Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011 13
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COMMENTS?
QUESTIONS?