social models of the new east european capitalisms by pál tamas [hungarian academy of sciences]
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Social Models of the New East European
Capitalismsby
Pál TAMAS[Hungarian Academy of
Sciences]
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Agriculture regionsIndustry regionsBasic service regionsBusiness service regionsCapital cities
Regional Clusters
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Growth of gross domestic product:
Wider Europe% annual change, 2006 and 2006-2020
forecasts
1.1
2.31.5
2.8
4.15.2 4.85.2
7.36.8
6.05.8
8.9
7.4
6.1
3.2
6.86
9.6
12.1
7.1 7
2.3
4.96.1
4.6
6.5
5.6 5.2
2.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2003 2004 2005 2006 2006-2015
EU-15 NMS-10 Bu,Ro,Cr Turkey SEE-5 Ukraine
wiiw
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90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Employment GDP Employment GDP
Employment and GDP growth 1995 = 100
EU-15 NMS-10
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4
8
12
16
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
CZ HU PL SK SI BG RO
Unemployment rates 2000-2007
LFS, %, annual average
Source: wiiw Database
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Stylized U-shaped pattern of employment growth in NMs
Employment levels
TimeStrong presence of sectors with declining output shares and strong productivity catching-up
Increasing weight of sectors with strong output growth and lower productivity catching-up
Aggregate GDP growth / catching-up and convergence in output structures (with more advanced economies)
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-6-4-202468
Agriculture, forestry,fishing
Industry total Trade, hotels,restaurants
Finance and businessserv.
Value added Productivity Employment
Growth by sectors, 1995-2005 in % p.a.NMS-7
-6-4-202468
Agriculture, forestry,fishing
Industry total Trade, hotels,resaurants
Finance and businessserv.
Poland
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Employment by educational categories
1992-2005
405060708090
100110120130140
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Hungary:(Index: 1992 = 100)
406080
100120140160180
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Poland:(Index: 1992 = 100)
40
60
80
100
120
140
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Czech Republic:(Index: 1993 = 100)
Primary educationSecondary educationTertiary educationTotal employment
2005
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Skill shifts – between and within components in low-, medium- and
high-skill sectors,1999-2005
-1
0
1
2
3
4
L M H L M H L M H L M H
between within total skill shift
Source: wiiw
CZ HU SI SK
L=low-skill sectors, M=medium-skill sectors, H=high-skill sectors
High education
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