x internet - q2 2002.ppt
TRANSCRIPT
The X Internet: Leveling the playing field for businesses in developing nationsNavi RadjouSenior Analyst
Eroica HowardResearch Assistant to the CEO
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Waves of Internet innovation
FTP
EmailTelnet
GopherWAIS
Web?????
Internetusers
Theme
The X Internet will let businesses in developing nations do more with
what they have
What’s behind the X Internet? What is the X Internet? Early adopters of the X Internet in
developing nations When will these changes take hold?
Agenda
What’s behind the X Internet?
Bandwidth lags other technology improvements
Computing
Storage
Bandwidth
4 MHz8088
0.1 MBfloppies0.3 Kbpsmodem
1981
25 MHz8048630 MB
hard drive9.6 Kbpsmodem
1991
2,000 MHzPentium 4
100,000 MBhard drive300 Kbps
share of T1 line*
2001
* Though most PCs and servers ship with 100 Mbpsnetworking interfaces, actual Internet throughputremains limited by corporate Internet connections
50%
62%
27%
CAGR
Bandwidth continues to lag processing and storage technologies
12
20
100
600
3200
1040
120500
10004000
1000030000
60000160000
2.49.6
19.2 28 33 56
300
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Performance (MIPS)Storage (Mbytes)Bandwidth (Kbps)
Moore’s Law
Today’s “last-mile” bottlenecks
X Internet moves beyond bandwidth’s limits
12
20
100
600
3200
1040
120500
10004000
1000030000
60000160000
2.49.6
19.2 28 33 56
300
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Performance (MIPS)Storage (Mbytes)Bandwidth (Kbps)
Moore’s Law
Mainframes andGreen screens
Client/server
The Web
X Internet
What is the X Internet?
The X Internet refers to two “Xs”
An executable Internet that supplants today’s Web
An extended Internet that connects to the real world
Executable Internet builds conversations
Server
Endpoints
The Web only provides answers
Account summary
The Web
How much is in my account?
The executableInternet
The executable Net creates a conversation
What should I do with my account?
Financial services tools (executables)
Two-way conversation about my account
BUY IT NOW
Isn’t this just Java?
Java is a piece of some solutions But there are other alternatives
Extendedendpoints
Extended Internet -- an Internet of things
Server
Endpoints
The X Internet connects digital to physical
Internetcomputers DigitalInternetusers
Physical
Vehicles
Telephones
Buildings
Temp: 52° F Fuel: 1/2 tank Door:
Closed
• Tag is integrated with door, fuel, and temperature sensors
• Sensor data is transmitted every few minutes
WhereNet devices simplify supply logistics
WhereNet devices simplify supply logisticsYard inventory is conveyed to users through maps and reports
Colors indicate trailer status and alert conditions
Early adopters of X Internet in developing nations
X Internet pioneers in developing nations
Hanssem Kitchen Ware (China) EAN International
(www.autoidcenter.org) CK Tang Department Store (Malaysia) UNCTAD/Savi Technology partnership
Case study: CEMEX (Mexico)
GPS-enabled truck fleet 20-minute delivery
window Savings: $100 million
When will these changes take hold?
The three waves of X Internet adoption
First waveof adoption(2001-2003)
Finance
LogisticsMedia
Second waveof adoption(2004-2006)
UtilitiesTelecom
Healthcare
Food and agricultureHigh-techAerospace
Paper
PetrochemicalsAutomotive
Industrial equipment
Product fit• Bits-to-atoms ratio in end products• Intangibility of supply chain assets
2
3
4
5High
1Low
Industry readiness• Value chain simplicity• Propensity to adopt cross-firm apps
HighLow1 2 3 4 5
Third waveof adoption(2007+)Construction
Heavy industriesConsumer goods
X Internet devices and spending
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
5
10
15
Devices(billions)
Devices
Spend$1
$2
$3
Spend(US$ trillions)
Summary
The executable Net will supplant the Web
The extended Net will connect digital to physical
The X Internet will let businesses in developing nations do more with what they have
Thank you
Navi Radjou Eroica [email protected]
[email protected]+1 617/613-6119 +1 617/613-6295
www.forrester.com