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XP Presidential Poll –Round 12
August, 2018
2
Political Analysis
Month & Week Data Colection TSE Register#May Wk3 May-15 to May-18 BR-09600/2018May Wk4 May-21 to May-23 BR-05699/2018
May Wk5 (Truck Strike) - -June Wk1 Jun-04 to Jun-06 BR-05997/2018June Wk2 Jun-11 to Jun-13 BR-07273/2018June Wk3 Jun-18 to Jun-20 BR-06647/2018June Wk4 Jun-25 to Jun-27 BR-03362/2018 July Wk1 Jul-02 to Jul-04 BR-04338/2018 July Wk2 Jul-09 to Jul-11 BR-09898/2018July Wk3 Jul-16 to Jul-18 BR-02843/2018July Wk4 Jul-23 to Jul-25 BR-07756/2018
August Wk1 Jul-30 to Aug-01 BR-06820/2018August Wk2 Aug-06 to Aug-08 BR-08988/2018
XP Presidential Polls
XP Presidential Poll - Details
Conducted by:
Instituto de pesquisas sociais, políticas e econômicas (Ipespe)
Sample:
1000 interviews/each week
Coverage:
National
Method:
Phone call interviews
Margin of Error:
1000 interviews: 3.2. p.p. All files from previous polls and scenariosbreakdowns are available here.
3
Political Analysis
GENDER REGIONMALE 48% NORTH 8%FEMALE 52% NORTHEAST 27%
AGE SOUTHEAST 44%16 & 17 YO 1% SOUTH 15%18 TO 34 YO 32% MIDWEST 7%35 TO 54 YO 41% TYPE OF CITY+55 YO 26% CAPITAL TOWNS 23%
OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 15%WORKING 60% COUNTRY TOWNS 62%NOT WORKING 40% CITY SIZE INCOME (MW = USD260) < 50.000 HAB 35%E CLASS (< 1 MW) 24% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 23%D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 27% 200.001 TO 500.000 HAB 14%C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 35% > 500.000 HAB 28%B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 9% RELIGIONA CLASS (> 20 MW) 5% CATHOLIC 59%DIDN'T ANSWER 0% EVANGELICAL 22% EDUCATION LEVEL DONT KNOW 8%ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 9% SPIRITTUALISM 4%MIDDLE SCHOOL 29% ADVENTITST 1%HIGH SCHOOL 42% OTHER 5%HIGHER EDUCATION 20% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 1%
VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL)
Voter profile: current week distribution
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
4
Political AnalysisHighlights
The 12th round of the XP Presidential Poll showed that Jair Bolsonaro consolidated 17%
of spontaneous vote intention, while Lula’s rose from 13% to 15%, within the margin of
error. On all scenarios Ciro Gomes vote intention declined 1 p.p. or 2 p.p.
In the second round, Bolsonaro relative strengh decreased in all scenarios but in that in
which he runs against Ciro Gomes. But even in this case, both candidates voting
intentions fell within the margin of error and now remain below those saying to vote
none/blank/null.
When Fernando Haddad is identified as supported by Lula his voting intention rises from
3% (scenario 2) to 13% (scenario 4). Microdata shows that vote migration from Lula’s
voters in scenario 3 to Haddad rises from 10% when he’s not idetified to 36% afterwards.
With an increased media exposure, the poll captured an increase for Fernando Haddad’s
vote conviction (4% to 6%) and for a choice for a second option (3% to 6%). However,
there was no major change in the number of those who claim they ‘don’t know (the
candidate) enough’.
It stood out that the perception of Alckmin winning the election rose from 5% to 8%, while
Bolsonaro’s declined from 30% to 27%, both movements beign at the top of the margin of
error.
5
Political Analysis
1. Electoral Scenarios
2. Assessing the electorate & Microdata Analysis
XP Poll
6
Political AnalysisVoting Intention - Spontaneous
AugustWeek 2
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
7
Political AnalysisScenario 1 – PT presents no candidate
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
AugustWeek 2
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Political AnalysisScenario 2 – with Fernando Haddad (PT)
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
AugustWeek 2
9
Political AnalysisScenario 3 – with Lula (PT)
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
AugustWeek 2
10
Political AnalysisScenario 4 – Haddad with Lula’s support
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
AugustWeek 2
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Political AnalysisSecond option
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
12
Political Analysis
FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA
JAIR BOLSONARO
GERALDO ALCKMIN
MARINA SILVA
CIRO GOMES
ÁLVARO DIAS
UNDECIDED
ÁLVARO DIAS 0% 9% 5% 0% 9% 0% 0%CIRO GOMES 20% 5% 6% 11% 0% 6% 0%FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA 0% 4% 5% 15% 21% 6% 0%GERALDO ALCKMIN 6% 16% 0% 9% 13% 18% 0%GUILHERME BOULOS 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0%HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 2% 4% 14% 1% 0% 2% 0%JAIR BOLSONARO 5% 0% 14% 10% 9% 22% 0%MANUELA D'ÁVILA 15% 0% 1% 6% 4% 0% 0%MARINA SILVA 20% 8% 24% 0% 13% 10% 0%DIDN'T ANSWER 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%DON'T KNOW 0% 2% 6% 6% 10% 8% 0%NONE/BLANK/NULL 30% 50% 23% 41% 21% 24% 0%HADN'T CHOSEN ANYONE IN SCENARIO 4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
IF THE CANDIDATE YOU CHOSE ON THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO DOESN'T MAKE TO THE TICKET, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?Choice in scenario 4
2nd Option
Second option
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
13
Political AnalysisVote MigrationMICRODATA SPECIAL
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
14
Political Analysis2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
15
Political Analysis2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
16
Political Analysis2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
17
Political Analysis2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
18
Political AnalysisVoter conviction
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
19
Political AnalysisRejection
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
20
Political AnalysisUnfamiliarity
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
21
Political Analysis
Would Surely Vote
Could VoteWouldn't
Vote Dont't Know
EnoughDon'tKnow/
Didn'tAnswerTotal
LULA 29% 10% 60% 0% 1% 100%
BOLSONARO 19% 13% 57% 10% 1% 100%
MARINA 13% 23% 59% 4% 1% 100%
ALCKMIN 10% 24% 57% 8% 1% 100%
CIRO 9% 18% 60% 12% 1% 100%
A. DIAS 6% 14% 46% 33% 1% 100%
HADDAD 6% 11% 56% 26% 1% 100%
I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM, WOULDN'T
VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY.
Conviction, recognition and rejection.
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
AugustWeek 2
22
Political AnalysisExpectation of Victory
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
AugustWeek 2
23
Political Analysis
1. Electoral Scenarios
2. Assessing the electorate & Microdata Analysis
XP Poll
24
Political AnalysisInterest in the election
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
25
Political AnalysisPresident Approval
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
AugustWeek 2
26
Political Analysis
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Reforms
27
Political Analysis
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Political Reform
28
Political Analysis
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Social Security Reform
29
Political Analysis
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Tax Reform
30
Political AnalysisDisclaimer
This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”).
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confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only.
In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results
presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in
violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979.
Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in
this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais,
políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.
© GrupoXP
August 2018