xp presidential poll round 13 · 27 disclaimer political analysis this material was prepared by xp...
TRANSCRIPT
XP Presidential Poll –Round 13
August, 2018
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Political Analysis
Month & Week Data Colection TSE Register#May Wk3 May-15 to May-18 BR-09600/2018May Wk4 May-21 to May-23 BR-05699/2018
May Wk5 (Truck Strike) - -June Wk1 Jun-04 to Jun-06 BR-05997/2018June Wk2 Jun-11 to Jun-13 BR-07273/2018June Wk3 Jun-18 to Jun-20 BR-06647/2018June Wk4 Jun-25 to Jun-27 BR-03362/2018 July Wk1 Jul-02 to Jul-04 BR-04338/2018 July Wk2 Jul-09 to Jul-11 BR-09898/2018July Wk3 Jul-16 to Jul-18 BR-02843/2018July Wk4 Jul-23 to Jul-25 BR-07756/2018
August Wk1 Jul-30 to Aug-01 BR-06820/2018August Wk2 Aug-06 to Aug-08 BR-08988/2018August Wk3 Aug-13 to Aug-15 BR-02075/2018
XP Presidential Polls
XP Presidential Poll - Details
Conducted by:
Instituto de pesquisas sociais, políticas e econômicas (Ipespe)
Sample:
1000 interviews/each week
Coverage:
National
Method:
Phone call interviews
Margin of Error:
1000 interviews: 3.2. p.p. All files from previous polls and scenariosbreakdowns are available here.
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Political Analysis
GENDER REGIONMALE 48% NORTH 8%FEMALE 52% NORTHEAST 27%
AGE SOUTHEAST 43%16 & 17 YO 1% SOUTH 15%18 TO 34 YO 33% MIDWEST 7%35 TO 54 YO 40% TYPE OF CITY+55 YO 27% CAPITAL TOWNS 24%
OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 17%WORKING 57% COUNTRY TOWNS 59%NOT WORKING 43% CITY SIZE INCOME (MW = USD260) < 50.000 HAB 34%E CLASS (< 1 MW) 21% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 24%D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 30% 200.001 TO 500.000 HAB 14%C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 34% > 500.000 HAB 29%B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 10% RELIGIONA CLASS (> 20 MW) 4% CATHOLIC 62%DIDN'T ANSWER 0% EVANGELICAL 21% EDUCATION LEVEL DONT KNOW 7%ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 8% SPIRITTUALISM 4%MIDDLE SCHOOL 29% ADVENTITST 1%HIGH SCHOOL 44% OTHER 5%HIGHER EDUCATION 19% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 0%
VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL)
Voter profile: current week distribution
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political AnalysisHighlights
The first XP Presidential Poll released after the definition of the candidates of all parties showed that
Bolsonaro started the campaign as the leader in the scenario in which Lula isn’t considered. He has 23%
of votes, followed by Marina (11%), Alckmin (9%), Ciro (8%) and Haddad (7%). When Lula is the PT
candidate, the former president appears ahead with 31%, followed by Bolsonaro (20%).
Fernando Haddad (PT) support grew 4 p.p. to 7%. He’s now tied within the margin of error with Marina,
Alckmin and Ciro. Haddad also rose in the scenario in which he’s identified as “supported by Lula” (from
13% to 15%) and in all second-round scenarios.
It’s important to note that the scenarios were modified, adding more andidates. The order in which
the scenarios were read to the voters also changed. The scenario in which Lula is considered now come
before the others.
The voters were asked for the first time if they believe that Lula will run for president or not. 56% of
them say he won’t run, while 40% say he might run or will surely run. Among Haddad’s voters, 75% believe
that Lula will run. The opposite happens among Bolsonaro’s voters: 76% say he won’t run.
Voters were also asked if they believe that Lula should run or should he be prohibited from running.
Half of them say that Lula should be prohibited, while 44% believe he should be allowed to run. Among
voters of different candidates, the rates are also differ. Voters of left wing candidates are more likely to
defend Lula’s right to run, while 86% of Bolsonaro voters say he should be prohibited from running.
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Political Analysis
1. Electoral Scenarios
2. Assessing the electorate & Microdata Analysis
XP Poll
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Political AnalysisVoting Intention - Spontaneous
AugustWeek 3
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political AnalysisScenario 1 – with Lula (PT)
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
AugustWeek 3
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Political AnalysisScenario 2 – with Fernando Haddad (PT)
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
AugustWeek 3
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Political AnalysisScenario 3 – Haddad with Lula’s support
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
AugustWeek 3
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Political AnalysisSecond option
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political Analysis
FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA
JAIR BOLSONARO
GERALDO ALCKMIN
MARINA SILVA
CIRO GOMES
ÁLVARO DIAS
UNDECIDED
ÁLVARO DIAS 1% 13% 6% 3% 3% 0% 0%CIRO GOMES 33% 1% 9% 8% 0% 9% 0%FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA 0% 4% 6% 18% 22% 0% 0%GERALDO ALCKMIN 2% 13% 0% 11% 8% 13% 0%GUILHERME BOULOS 5% 1% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0%HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 1% 3% 5% 3% 2% 5% 0%JAIR BOLSONARO 5% 0% 6% 18% 9% 23% 0%MARINA SILVA 18% 5% 16% 0% 12% 16% 0%JOÃO AMOÊDO 0% 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%VERA LÚCIA 0% 0% 3% 1% 2% 0% 0%CABO DACIOLO 0% 6% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0%JOÃO GOULART FILHO 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 4% 0%JOSÉ MARIA EYMAEL 1% 0% 1% 2% 0% 2% 0%DIDN'T ANSWER 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0%DON'T KNOW 1% 4% 6% 4% 9% 4% 0%NONE/BLANK/NULL 31% 42% 34% 31% 28% 25% 0%HADN'T CHOSEN ANYONE IN SCENARIO 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
IF THE CANDIDATE YOU CHOSE ON THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO DOESN'T MAKE TO THE TICKET, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?Choice in scenario 3
2nd Option
Second option
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political AnalysisVote MigrationMICRODATA SPECIAL
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political Analysis2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political Analysis2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political Analysis2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political Analysis2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political AnalysisVoter conviction
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
18
Political AnalysisRejection
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
19
Political AnalysisUnfamiliarity
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political Analysis
Would Surely Vote
Could VoteWouldn't
Vote Dont't Know
EnoughDon'tKnow/
Didn'tAnswerTotal
LULA 30% 9% 60% 1% 1% 100%
BOLSONARO 20% 12% 58% 10% 1% 100%
MARINA 11% 21% 60% 7% 1% 100%
ALCKMIN 9% 23% 59% 8% 1% 100%
HADDAD 9% 11% 54% 26% 1% 100%
CIRO 8% 20% 59% 12% 1% 100%
A. DIAS 7% 13% 48% 31% 1% 100%
I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM, WOULDN'T
VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY.
Conviction, recognition and rejection.
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
AugustWeek 3
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Political AnalysisExpectation of Victory
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
AugustWeek 3
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Political Analysis
1. Electoral Scenarios
2. Assessing the electorate & Microdata Analysis
XP Poll
23
Political AnalysisInterest in the election
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political AnalysisPresident Approval
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
AugustWeek 3
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Political Analysis
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Will Lula run?
26
Political Analysis
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Should Lula run?
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Political AnalysisDisclaimer
This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”).
XPI and its affiliates, parent, shareholders, directors, officers, employees, and licensors will not be liable (individually, jointly, or
severally) to you or any other person as a result of your access, reception, or use of the information contained in this
communication.
All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of transmission and these, plus any
other information contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that
any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances
or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation.
This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a
solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. This material (including any attachments) is
confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only.
In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results
presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in
violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979.
Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in
this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais,
políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.
© GrupoXP
August 2018