xviii general assembly of ministers and high level authorities on housing and urbanization in latin...
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XVIII General Assembly of Ministers and XVIII General Assembly of Ministers and High Level Authorities on Housing and High Level Authorities on Housing and Urbanization in Latin America and the Urbanization in Latin America and the
Caribbean (MINURVI)Caribbean (MINURVI)
Montego Bay, JamaicaMontego Bay, Jamaica15-17 de julio 200915-17 de julio 2009
Sustainable Development and Human Settlements Division Sustainable Development and Human Settlements Division ECLACECLAC
Raquel SzalachmanRaquel Szalachman
Social Expenditure on Social Expenditure on Housing and Urban Housing and Urban
Development for some Development for some Latin American and Latin American and Caribbean countriesCaribbean countries
Presentation:Presentation:
I. General information
II. Regional Panorama
III. Main findings of the study: Comparative Analysis
IV. Final comments
I. General informationI. General information• Constant or diminishing rates for housing social
spending as a proportion of GDP• Different registrations styles and different concepts
included• In 2006 MINURVI, Ministers and High Level
Authorities, established the will to know the real value of housing and urbanism spending.
• The first approach was through a survey sent to the Housing Ministers
• We found out that the real expenditure source was at National Accounting and at the Budget Offices and/or General Comptrollers.
• We started with a pilot study for only 3 countries• In this occasion we have extended it to 11 countries,
which means 8 additional countries.
INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION
Objectives Policy Tools
RESOURCESRESOURCESNeedsNeeds
SOCIAL SPENDINGSOCIAL SPENDING RequirementsRequirements
REDISTRIBUTIVE IMPACTSREDISTRIBUTIVE IMPACTS
Regional PanoramaRegional Panorama
Regional GDP was up by 4.2% in 2008, completing a Regional GDP was up by 4.2% in 2008, completing a sixth consecutive year of economic growthsixth consecutive year of economic growth
1,31,3
2,52,6
2,93,0
3,24,04,0
4,34,8
5,15,3
5,86,2
6,57,0
8,99,2
9,8
2.3
5.5
4.2
4.1
0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 9,0 10,0 11,0 12,0
HaitiMexico
The CaribbeanEl Salvador
ColombiaCosta RicaNicaragua
ChileHonduras
GuatemalaCentral America
Latin AmericaCuba
Venezuela (Bol.Brazil
DominicanSouth America
ParaguayBolivia (Pl. St. of)
EcuadorArgentina
UruguayPanama
Peru
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH, 2008(Percentages)
Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de cifras oficiales.
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Growth has been coupled with improvements in labour-market indicators
50,0
51,0
52,0
53,0
54,0
55,0
56,0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
6,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
10,00
11,00
12,00
Employment rate (left axis) Unemployment rate (right axis)Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de cifras oficiales.
In 2009, the region’s growth is expected to slow dramatically
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GROWTH FORECASTS FOR 2009 (%)
-2.0-1.0
-0.5-0.5
-0.30.00.00.1
0.50.50.5
1.01.0
1.51.51.51.5
2.53.03.0
3.54.0
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
MéxicoBrazil
Costa RicaParaguay
Latin America and the CaribbeanChile
EcuadorThe Caribbean
El SalvadorHaiti
ColombiaVenezuela (Bol.Rep.of)
NicaraguaArgentina
GuatemalaHonduras
Dominican RepUruguay
Bolivia (Pl.St.of)CubaPeru
Panama
Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de cifras oficiales.
ECLAC forecasts a growth rate of -ECLAC forecasts a growth rate of -1.7% for 20091.7% for 2009
GDP growth
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de cifras oficiales.
The 6 biggest economies of Latin America have experienced a 30% fall in
exports in 1QLATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: REAL GROWTH RATE OF QUARTERLY EXPORTS
(% change between Qt and Qt-4)
-20,0%
-15,0%
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
I II III IV I II III IV I
2007 2008 2009
ARGENTINA BRASIL
CHILE MEXICO
PERU COLOMBIA
Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de cifras oficiales.
In a number of countries In a number of countries remittances are showing a major remittances are showing a major
halthalt
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1Q 2007 2Q 2007 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 4Q 2008 1Q 2009
Guatemala El SalvadorMexico NicaraguaJamaica Rep.DominicanaEcuador Colombia
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: WORKERS REMMITANCES(Annual percentage increase)
Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de cifras oficiales.
The Caribbean and Central America will suffer the The Caribbean and Central America will suffer the most from the expected drop in tourism revenuesmost from the expected drop in tourism revenues
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
South AmericaArgentina
BoliviaBrazilChile
ColombiaEcuador
ParaguayPeru
UruguayVenezuela (Bol. Rep. of)
Central AmericaCosta RicaEl SalvadorGuatemala
HaitiHondurasNicaragua
PanamaDominican Republic
MexicoCaribbeanBahamasBarbados
BelizeDominicaGranadaGuyana
JamaicaSaint Kitts and Nevis
Saint LuciaSaint Vincent and the
SurinameTrinidad and Tobago
Latin America and the Caribbean
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: TOURISM-RELATED SERVICE EXPORTS, 2007(Percentages of GDP)
40.8%
Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de cifras oficiales.
Main Findings of the Study:Comparative Analyses
Housing and Related Services Social Housing and Related Services Social Expenditure as a percentage of GDPExpenditure as a percentage of GDP
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
0.80%
0.90%
1.00%
Honduras
Perú
E P Bolivia
Paraguay
El Salvador
Costa Rica
Promedio
Argentina
Guatemala
Chile
Jamaica
Panamá
% del PIB
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Urbanization Social Expenditure as a Urbanization Social Expenditure as a percentage of GDPpercentage of GDP
0,00% 0,05% 0,10% 0,15% 0,20% 0,25% 0,30%
Costa Rica
Paraguay
Perú
Estado Plurin de Bolivia
El Salvador
Honduras
Argentina
Jamaica
Promedio
Chile
Guatemala
Panamá
% del PIB
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0,51
0,48
Social Community Expenditure as Social Community Expenditure as a percentage of GDPa percentage of GDP
0,00% 0,05% 0,10% 0,15% 0,20% 0,25% 0,30% 0,35% 0,40% 0,45% 0,50%
Costa Rica
Honduras
Estado Plurin de Bolivia
Guatemala
Paraguay
Chile
Panamá
Perú
Argentina
Promedio
El Salvador
Jamaica
% del PIB
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0,51
Water supplying expenditure as a Water supplying expenditure as a percentage of GDPpercentage of GDP
0,00% 0,05% 0,10% 0,15% 0,20% 0,25% 0,30% 0,35% 0,40% 0,45% 0,50%
Panamá
Argentina
Honduras
El Salvador
Estado Plurin de Bolivia
Perú
Paraguay
Chile
Promedio
Guatemala
Jamaica
Costa Rica
% del PIB
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Public lighting systemPublic lighting systemexpenditure as a percentage of expenditure as a percentage of
GDPGDP
0,00% 0,01% 0,02% 0,03% 0,04% 0,05% 0,06% 0,07% 0,08% 0,09% 0,10%
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Honduras
Jamaica
Paraguay
Perú
Chile
Argentina
Guatemala
Promedio
Panamá
Estado Plurin de Bolivia
% del PIB
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0,27
0,16
Housing and Community Services Housing and Community Services Expenditure as a percentage of GDPExpenditure as a percentage of GDP
0,00% 0,05% 0,10% 0,15% 0,20% 0,25% 0,30% 0,35% 0,40% 0,45% 0,50%
Costa Rica
Jamaica
Honduras
Estado Plurin de Bolivia
Perú
Guatemala
Paraguay
El Salvador
Promedio
Panamá
Argentina
Chile
% del PIB
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0,58
0,55
0,60
Country comparisonsCountry comparisons
0
0,001
0,002
0,003
0,004
0,005
0,006
0,007
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
% d
el P
IB
Urbanismo Abastecimiento de agua
Alumbrado público Vivienda y servicios comunitarios
0
0,0005
0,001
0,0015
0,002
0,0025
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
% d
el P
IB
Urbanismo Desarrollo comunitariosAbastecimiento de agua Alumbrado PúblicoVivienda y servicios comunitarios
0,00%
0,02%
0,04%
0,06%
0,08%
0,10%
0,12%
0,14%
0,16%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
% d
e P
IB
Urbanismo Desarrollo Comunitario
Abastecimiento de agua Vivienda y servicios comunitarios
Panama
Bolivia Guatemala
0
0,001
0,002
0,003
0,004
0,005
0,006
2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008
% d
el P
IB
Urbanismo Desarrollo comunitario
Abastecimeinto de agua Vivienda y servicios comunitarios
Jamaica
Country comparisonsCountry comparisons
0
0,00005
0,0001
0,00015
0,0002
0,00025
0,0003
0,00035
0,0004
0,00045
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
% d
el P
IB
Urbanismo Desarrollo comunitarioAbastecimiento de agua Alumbrado públicoVivienda y servicios comunitarios
0
0,0001
0,0002
0,0003
0,0004
0,0005
0,0006
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
% d
el P
IB
Urbanismo Abastecimiento de agua Vivienda y servicios comunitarios
0
0,001
0,002
0,003
0,004
0,005
0,006
2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008
% d
el
PIB
Urbanismo Desarrollo comunitario
Abastecimeinto de agua Vivienda y servicios comunitarios
Paraguay Perú
Honduras
0
0,001
0,002
0,003
0,004
0,005
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Abastecimiento de agua Vivienda y servicios relacionados
Costa Rica
Country comparisonsCountry comparisons
0
0,001
0,002
0,003
0,004
0,005
0,006
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Abastecimiento de agua Alumbrado públicoDesarrollo comunitario UrbanizaciónVivienda y servicios comunitarios n.e.p.
0
0,001
0,002
0,003
0,004
0,005
0,006
0,007
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Urbanización Desarrollo comunitarioAbastecimiento de agua Alumbrado públicoVivienda y servicios comunitarios n.e.p.
The tree countries of the Pilot Study
Argentina
Chile
0
0,0005
0,001
0,0015
0,002
0,0025
0,003
0,0035
0,004
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Abastecimiento de agua Desarrollo comunitario
Urbanización Vivienda y servicios comunitarios n.e.p.
El Salvador
FINAL COMMENTSFINAL COMMENTS• It is possible to use a common methodology• But, the contact with the Budget Offices or Comptroller are
absolutely necessary in order to check the web information.
• This was mainly an statistic exercise in order to find out what are the real expenses
• Therefore, some important subjects weren’t analyzed:– Quality and efficiency of the expenditure– Expenditure sustainability– Redistribution impact
• Next steps: - Income sources (in or outside the country)- Effort made by the own families for housing access- Redistributive impact of the social expenditure
FINAL COMMENTSFINAL COMMENTS• Verification of the information was very
difficult• Countries that were not included have no
information on their web pages and it was impossible to contact them
• If there is some interest, the methodology could be transmitted to the different countries of the region.
• Next step: - Income sources (own or external)- Family efforts for social housing access- Redistribution impact of expenditure
FINAL COMMENTSFINAL COMMENTS• It is important to know the amount of housing and
urban development expenditure, but isolated this knowledge is only an accounting exercise.
• What is more important is to analyze the expenditure efficiency.
• This means that it is necessary to know the amount of the housing and urban development needs (deficit).
• As a matter of fact if the housing and urbanization expenditure is high or low will depend on the housing and urbanization requirements. Which means the next step should be to estimate housing and urbanization deficits.
THANK YOU VERY THANK YOU VERY MUCHMUCH
Raquel Szalachman Raquel Szalachman Sustainable Development and Human Settlements DivisionSustainable Development and Human Settlements Division
CEPALCEPAL