EquitiesEquities

Exane BNP Paribas Building Materials

XXI General Assembly and Congress of Partners FICEM“World Cement markets trends ”

Exane BNP Paribas’s new Scenario for 2011-2012

Quito, October 2011(INTERNAL USE ONLY)

construction@exanebnpparibas.comYassine Touahri +44 207 039 95 23 yassine.touahri@exanebnpparibas.comTeam construction@exane.com

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Yassine Touahri (London): ✉ yassine.touahri@exanebnpparibas.com ☎ + 44 207 039 95 23

Yassine Touahri, 28, graduated with a MsC in Management from Grenoble’s Ecole de Management and spent one year studying at the Warwick Business School in 2006/2007. In 2006, Yassine worked in Saint-Gobain’s investor relations department and joined Exane’s Building Materials and Construction team in 2007.

European Building Materials: Introduction

> We work closely with the Infrastructure Team of Nicolas Mora and Stanislas Coquebert (contactable on infrastructure@exane.com)

Paul Roger CFA (London): ✉ paul.roger@exanebnpparibas.com ☎ +44 203 430 84 15

Paul Roger, 34, graduated from Durham University in 1998 and has a decade’s experience covering the Building Materials sector at HSBC, ABN AMRO, Deutsche Bank and ING. He has also managed money for a top London hedge fund and spent a year working for Renaissance Capital in Russia, covering global infrastructure markets. Paul is a Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Accountant. He joined as Sector Head of Exane’s Building Materials Team in 2010.

Rohit Bhatia (London): ✉ rohit.bhatia @exanebnpparibas.com ☎ + 44 203 430 84 33

Rohit Bhatia, 25, graduated from Leeds University in 2007, and started his career at WestLB as a Debt Origination Analyst. Subsequently, he worked as an Equity Research Associate at Société Générale within the Telecoms Team. Rohit has completed his CFA exams and is awaiting his charter. He joined Exane’s Building Materials Team in 2011.

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Summary

What’s changed during the past few months?- Main take-aways from H1 2011- Increased pressure on mature markets banks and governments- Deteriorating confidence- Lower growth prospect in emerging markets

Our New Scenario for construction markets in 2011-2012 - Residential / Non Residential / Infrastructure- Our Scenario for cement volumes in 2011- A first tentative of scenario for cement volume in 2012

Challenging price-cost dynamics in 2011 and a question mark for 2012- Price hikes in 2011 were often not sufficient to fully pass on cost inflation - Cost pressures may however abate in 2012- But new entrants in the cement indutry create a question mark on pricing in emerging markets ?

An overview of the relationship between the steel and cement industry - Should the steel Industry invest in cement ?- Many steel industry players are facing cash-flow constraints as margins are under pressure- However some degree of integration in cement make sense in some emerging markets

Conclusion

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Main take-aways from H1 2011-Demand was very strong in Q1 11 (favourable base effect because Q1 10 was heavily impacted by bad weather in Europe and North America) - In contrast, trends in Q2 11 have been relatively disappointing (tough weather in the US, and Canada, lacklustre demand in India, very weak volumes in Southern Europe)

Q111 cement volume trends (YoY) Q211 cement volume trends (YoY)

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What’s changed over the last few months: increased pressure on mature markets banks and governments- European governments have come under renewed pressure to reduce debt- Investors are also starting to question the strength of banks’ balance sheets

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European sovereign CDS spread have increased by more than 50 bps on average since June

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EU BANKS SECTOR CDS INDEX 5Y - CDS PREM. MID

European bank CDS have also continued to surge to an unhealthy level this summer

European sates have been facing increasing market pressure to reduce debt

European banks are now facing increasingly high financing costs

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What’s changed over the last few months: deteriorating confidence- In Europe both business and consumer confidence deteriorated this summer- In the ISM (US business climate) was clearly disappointing and consumer confidence remains well below its pre-crisis level

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What’s changed over the last few months: Lower growth prospect in emerging markets- Monetary tightening (need to control inflation)- Lower world GDP growth (potential stagnation of some large mature markets).

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Current Central bank interest rates vs. 2010 rates

Tightening monetary policy in emerging markets Exane economists now expected a marked slowdown in emerging market GDP growth 2012

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Emerging and Developing Economies GDP forecasts for 2011 & 2012Change in central bank reference rates since 2010

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Summary

What’s changed during the past few months?- Main take-aways from H1 2011- Increased pressure on mature markets banks and governments- Deteriorating confidence- Lower growth prospect in emerging markets

Our New Scenario for construction markets in 2011-2012 - Residential / Non Residential / Infrastructure- Our Scenario for cement volumes in 2011- A first tentative of scenario for cement volume in 2012

Challenging price-cost dynamics in 2011 and a question mark for 2012- Price hikes in 2011 were often not sufficient to fully pass on cost inflation - Cost pressures may however abate in 2012- But new entrants in the cement industry create a question mark on pricing in emerging markets ?

An overview of the relationship between the steel and cement industry - Should the steel Industry invest in cement ?- Many steel industry players are facing cash-flow constraints as margins are under pressure- However some degree of integration in cement make sense in some emerging markets

Conclusion

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US housing still hovers around the bottom

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Estimated excess level of vacant home for sale or for rent ('000)

...and excess inventory remains high

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Housing Permits EU27 YoY % change (RHS)

European housing permits are resilient but lending activity is likely to slowdown

Residential construction: Potential weakness in Europe / Slow recovery in the US- In Europe, 2011 housing trends have so far developed in line with our expectations - However, banks’ woes, austerity and unemployment put the recovery at risk - US housing permits and starts have been hovering around 500-600k per year since early 2009 and there is a large underlying need for housing (over 1m per year)-However unemployment failed to abate and excess inventory remains very high

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Non-residential construction: deteriorating leading indicators - In Europe, non residential trends have historically been well correlated with the business climate with a time lag of one to two years- This suggest that the erosion of business confidence witnessed this summer will impact non residential investments in 2012 or 2013- In the US, the leading indicator for non residential construction (ABI) has historically been well correlated with non residential trends 12 to 18 months later. The figures also suggest a slowdownDeteriorating non residential indicators suggest a slowdown or decline in non residential activity

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Business Climate Indicator in Europe

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USA - AIA Architecture Billings Index

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USA - Construction spending private non residential -YoY % change ( 3 month average)USA - AIA Architecture Billings Index - 3 month average

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Infrastructure: austerity measures and phasing out of stimulus create a risk on 2012- Significant indebtedness and stress in many mature markets- Infrastructure trends above historical averages in many markets (Stimulus) - History suggests potential for big declines if political will breaks down

In the US, states are under pressure to cut spending and there is no clear consensus at the federal level on infrastructure

Large budget deficit in Europe suggest that debt reduction will be a priority

European 2011 budget deficit as a % of GDP

Gap between planned tax revenues and expenditure by states

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Cement Volume Scenario 2011- Mature markets 0%, Emerging markets (ex. China) +4%

Our demand assumptions for the full year 2011 - In Mature market: we expect demand to be stable (weak trends in Southern Europe and Ireland offsetting growth in Northern Europe )- In Emerging markets, we expect demand to be solid with the exception of Egypt (Arab Spring) and Philippines (delay in infrastructure projects)

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A tentative scenario for Cement demand in 2012 - A slight decline in US demand (phasing out of stimulus projects)- Weak European trends but more resilient in Northern Europe- Emerging countries are growing but at slower pace in many countries due to the slowdown if the world economy

Cement Volume Scenario 2012- Mature markets -1%, Emerging markets (ex. China) +4%

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Summary

What’s changed during the past few months?- Main take-aways from H1 2011- Increased pressure on mature markets banks and governments- Deteriorating confidence- Lower growth prospect in emerging markets

Our New Scenario for construction markets in 2011-2012 - Residential / Non Residential / Infrastructure- Our Scenario for cement volumes in 2011- A first tentative of scenario for cement volume in 2012

Challenging price-cost dynamics in 2011 and a question mark for 2012- Price hikes in 2011 were often not sufficient to fully pass on cost inflation - Cost pressures may however abate in 2012- But new entrants in the cement industry create a question mark on pricing in emerging markets ?

An overview of the relationship between the steel and cement industry - Should the steel Industry invest in cement ?- Many steel industry players are facing cash-flow constraints as margins are under pressure- However some degree of integration in cement make sense in some emerging markets

Conclusion

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Cost inflation is a key issue in 2011- Petcoke and coal prices have increased significantly vs. early 2010- We estimate that in 2011, the energy bill of cement players is on average up 13% vs. last year.

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Coal USD/t C&F Petcoke USD/t C&F Oil prices (USD / barrel)

Evolution of coal, Petcoke and oil prices since 2000

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Price hikes in 2011 were often not sufficient to fully pass on cost inflation -Price hikes were often announced because of the rise in costs -However, in most regions (with the notable exceptions of China) cost inflation could not be fully passed on to clients and margins came under pressure.

Q1 cement margin evolution

Q2 cement margin evolution

Cement Prices in 1H 2011 +3% excl. China (YoY% change)

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Cost pressures should abate in 2012- Petcoke prices and other inputs look to have stabilised- Energy cost inflation forecast in our simulation to fall to +1% YoY in 2012 vs +13% in 2011

Which means easing energy cost inflation in 2012 Energy prices are starting to come down (notably Petcoke)

Recent evolution of International Petcoke & Coal prices Estimated average cement energy bill in EUR/t

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However utilisation rates remain very low in many mature markets-With the collapse of volumes in mature markets utilisation rates are now often below 60%-This explain the relatively weak industry pricing power in 2010 & 2011. - With no expected improvement in utilisation rates in 2012, pricing power could remain subdued

Cement utilisation rates in 2012World average 74% (mature market 57%, emerging markets 77%)

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And new entrants are creating a question mark on prices in some emerging countries- Majors slowed capacity addition and there is an opportunity to take market share in many regions- Many new entrants from emerging countries have announced new capacity between 2010 and 2015- This is creating a question mark over pricing power of established players in markets that are becoming morefragmented

Estimated market share of new entrants by 2015

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Summary

What’s changed during the past few months?- Main take-aways from H1 2011- Increased pressure on mature markets banks and governments- Deteriorating confidence- Lower growth prospect in emerging markets

Our New Scenario for construction markets in 2011-2012 - Residential / Non Residential / Infrastructure- Our Scenario for cement volumes in 2011- A first tentative of scenario for cement volume in 2012

Challenging price-cost dynamics in 2011 and a question mark for 2012- Price hikes in 2011 were often not sufficient to fully pass on cost inflation - Cost pressures may however abate in 2012- But new entrants in the cement industry create a question mark on pricing in emerging markets ?

An overview of the relationship between the steel and cement industry - Should the steel Industry invest in cement ?- Many steel industry players are facing cash-flow constraints as margins are under pressure- However integration into cement make sense in some emerging markets and some players have cash

Conclusion

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Should steel producers invest into the cement industry?We see three main criteria to look at for a steel player to invest cement: - Availability of slag and differential between clinker cost & slag prices- Profitability and growth prospect of the local cement markets- Other investment opportunities in the steel & mining sector

Pure steel manufacturers need first to invest in maintenance

Debt reduction is often a priorityInvestment to optimise costs are likely

to be consideredIntegration into mining to secure raw

materials is likely to be considered a priority over diversifying into new sectors

Steel manufacturers that are largely vertically integrated into mining have potentially large cash reserve

Mining assets are expensive (high coking coal and iron ore price)

Overcapacity in steel often make further investment irrelevantDiversification into cement can make

sense in profitable cement markets

Other investment opportunities in the steel & mining sector

Low return and/or limited growth potential for the local cement industryVertical integration may offer a cost

advantage but total return may not be attractive (low margin on clinker production)

There are probably better investment opportunities elsewhere

High return and/or attractive growth prospect of the cement industry

Return on capital is attractive even without a slag cost advantage

Diversifying in cement can appear an interesting option if other investment opportunities are limited

Profitability and growth prospect of the local cement markets

Limited slag production and/or slag prices close to clinker costs

Using slag only offer cement producers marginal margin benefit

Selling slag to cement producers is nearly as profitable as vertical integration. It is also less risky.

Slag is available and prices are substantially lower than clinker cost Cement manufacturers are capturing

the incremental valueIntegrating into cement enable steel

producers to capture the differential

Availability of slag and differential between clinker cost & slag prices

Elements to be considered against entering the cement industry

Elements to be considered for entering the cement industry

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Many steel industry players are facing cash-flow constraints as margins are under pressure-Demand slowdown has been putting steel prices under pressure while Iron ore and coking coal pricesremain near historical high- The lower utilisation rates in the steel industry in mature markets has therefore translated into a profitability that is lower than in the last cycle- As a result, many steel manufacturers are have limited cash flow power - However, miners that are integrated into the steel industry benefited from the high prices of iron ore and/or coking coal and have cash

Declining Steel prices Iron ore prices near historical high

Coking coal prices also remains very high

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As a result, steel industry profitability is under pressure

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Integration into cement can make sense in some emerging markets for miners/steel producers that have cash

2011e EBITDA per tonne (in $) in the cement industry Crude Steel Production by Country (2010

Emerging markets with large steel production , and relatively attractive growth prospect & profitability

Emerging markets with large steel production , attractive growthprospect & potentially attractive return if margins & prices improve

Emerging markets with large steel production and attractive margin but limited growth profile

Integrating in cement can make sense in Brazil (large steel & mining industry and profitable cement industry). CSN mining assets have also been very cash generative.There is a question mark in Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Iran, China and India. Some steel players have started to invest in cement but the case for diversification could become more compelling with better utilisation rates and/or higher cement margins. In Mexico, ArcelorMittal the largest player face cash constraints. In Saudi Arabia, energy prices and clinker costs are relatively low, which may make the advantage of using slag a bit less attractive that in other countries. The prevailing steel technology is also producing less slag. South Africa growth prospect for cement demand are limited. In Egypt, political risks and limited visibility on cement margin are likely to deter investment In mature market, overcapacity and low growth prospect make investments by steel producer in the cement industry unlikely

Attractive market are likely to be favoured Market with large steel industry

Country in which steel manufacturers have started to integrate into the cement industry

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Summary

What’s changed during the past few months?- Main take-aways from H1 2011- Increased pressure on mature markets banks and governments- Deteriorating confidence- Lower growth prospect in emerging markets

Our New Scenario for construction markets in 2011-2012 - Residential / Non Residential / Infrastructure- Our Scenario for cement volumes in 2011- A first tentative of scenario for cement volume in 2012

Challenging price-cost dynamics in 2011 and a question mark for 2012- Price hikes in 2011 were often not sufficient to fully pass on cost inflation - Cost pressures may however abate in 2012- But new entrants in the cement industry create a question mark on pricing in emerging markets ?

An overview of the relationship between the steel and cement industry - Should the steel Industry invest in cement ?- Many steel industry players are facing cash-flow constraints as margins are under pressure- However integration into cement make sense in some emerging markets and some players have cash

Conclusion

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Change in cement volumes between 2006 and 2010

An overview of what happened during the crisisSince 2006, demand fell by more than 30% in mature markets …While volumes increase by more than a third in emerging countries.

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Conclusion

For 2012 we have reviewed down our scenario of recoveryWe have cut our Europe & US infrastructure assumptions to reflect austerity measures and the phasing out of stimulus. We have also cut Europe and US housing forecasts in view of the risk created by forthcoming austerity programmes and the high levels of unemployment. In addition to that, we have reviewed downward our estimates for non residential construction and renovation in mature markets to take into account tougher macro-economics trends, even if we expect both to stabilise. Looking at emerging markets, trends have until now been in line with our estimates and we have not materially changed our assumptions as regards volumes for 2011. We however expect a slowdown in emerging countries next year reflecting lower economic growth worldwide.

Two key industry challenges for international players: restructuring in mature markets and investing in emerging markets

Infrastructure activity in mature markets is likely to remain depressed until 2015 as governments are reimbursing their debt. Inthis scenario, utilisation rates for the cement industry would stay at a low level. We believe that one the main challenges facing the international cement players will be to restructure their mature markets positions in order to improve profitability. The recovery of cash flows in mature market is indeed key to restore the ability to invest in new plants in emerging market, capturegrowth opportunities and deter new entrants.

A new paradigm for the cement industry?Emerging market companies (within and outside the cement industry) did not face the collapse of cash flow in Europe and North America. As a result, capacity addition in emerging markets have continued and new players have appeared in many countries that are now becoming more fragmented. For instance, some steel and mining players have started to invest in cement in Brazil, India, Russia, and China. Reversing the fragmentation of emerging markets by acquiring new entrants could require a lot of capital. However, European based players have often balance sheets constraints as cash flow fell dramatically in their core markets and the pace of cash flow recovery is uncertain in mature countries. Consequently, many majors could have to first focus on key markets and divest non core assets while many emerging market players have the cash flow to invest.

Do not hesitate to contact me during the conference if you want to discuss other potential outcomes or if you want be added to our mailing list and receive our research.

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Gracias / Thank you / Merci