ydi report2019년 국내외 경제 전망과 한국경제의 과제 김창배연구위원...
TRANSCRIPT
2018-03
,
, ,
· ,
()
( ) , ,
( )
: ,
,
,
,
2. 2019
4(101.0) , 12
(100)
() ,
,
,
) ,
, SOC
,
SOC
,
· ,
· ,
, ' '
(M&A)
2.6% , 2.3%
,
2%
,
/
/
( )
,
2018~2019 ()
2017 2018 2019
2.6 3.0 2.8 7.6 -3.5 -4.5
14.6 -1.7 -2.1 3.0 2.4 2.9
1.9 3.5 3.2
7.0 1.0 -1.1 ( %) 1.9 1.6 1.8
() 316 105 95 3 (%) 1.8 2.1 1.9
(/) 1,131 1,100 1,120
the Basic’
’
(idea) (invention) (innovation) (initiative)
, ,
(1) ···················································································································3
(2) ···················································································································8
(3) ·················································································································10
(1) ·················································································································15
3. ·····································································33
················································································································35
< 3> ················································································16
< 4> 2018 ····························································································21
< 5> ······················································23
< 6> 2018~2019 () ···································································29
[ 2] ·····················································································5
[ 3] ·····································································5
[ 4] OECD ·························································································6
[ 5] ···································································································11
[ 6] / ································································································11
[ 7] ·························································································15
[ 8] GDP ··············································································16
[ 9] ·······························································································17
[ 13] ·································································································20
[ 14] ···············································································20
[ 15] SOC ····························································································20
[ 16] ···········································································20
[ 17] ·························································································24
[ 18] (2018 1~10) ·······································································24
[ 19] () ·····································································25
[ 20] (M2) ························································································25
[ 21] ·······················································································26
[ 22] ···············································································26
[ 23] · ·················································································27
[ 24] ·································································································27
[ 25] ·····················································································28
[ 26] ···································································································28
[ 27] 2018 / ··········································································29
[ 28] ·······································································29
1. 2019
1. 2019
· ,
IMF, 2018 3.7% →2019 3.7%, OECD, 2018 3.7% →2019 3.5%
< 1> 2019 : %
2017
(IMF)
3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5
2.2 2.9 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8
1.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0
3.1 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.8 6.9 6.6 6.2 6.6 6.3
1.5 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 6.7 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.3
1.0 1.4 2.4 1.2 2.1
: IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct. 2018 , OECD, Economic Outlook, Nov. 2018
(· )
‘ ’
OECD , 2019
0.5%
GDP 0.8%, 2%
- 4 -
: OECD
600
3: 2019 7
4: 2019~21 0.5%p
( )
2009
OECD , ,
(+) (-)
2%
1. 2019 - 5 -
[ 2] : deviations of actual GDP from potential GDP as %
OECD 2019 , 5 3.9% → 9 3.7% → 11 3.5% 0.4%p
[ 3] : %
: IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct. 2018, ECD, Economic Outlook, Nov. 2018
OECD →
OECD (CLI:Composite Leading Index) 6~9
, 100 , 100
10 OECD CLI 99.36 (99.49) 0.13p . 12
- 6 -
CLI
[ 4] OECD
() 2%
,
10 (PMI) 58.4
1. 2019 - 7 -
, 12 11 ,
3
() · , ,
1%
·
232
2019 10 : 8%→10%
2014 4, 5% 8%
10% ,
() ·
6%
·
3 7 /
- 8 -
() 2016 , 2017 (GST, )
. ,
, 2018 2019
7%
() 2018
, , ,
,
(2)
, , OPEC
1. 2019 - 9 -
< 2> : /
2017
EIA
(2018.12)
: EIA( )
: ( )
()
() OPEC OPEC
() ,
12.7 OPEC+(OPEC+ 10)
6 120 (`18 10 )
, , 8
(waiver)
( )
.
- 10 -
→ → →
(3)
: 87.5(1/31) → 97.2(12/4) 11.1%
: , ,
,
`19
·
: ,
, ECB
,
1. 2019 - 11 -
,
10
,
[ 5] [ 6] / : 1973 3 =100 : /
: :
: /, /
2. 2019
2. 2019
4(101.0) , 12
(100)
10 98.8, 2009 4 9 6
[ 7] : %
:
9.5% (4.6%)
- 16 -
(+) 4.1% 2
‘ ’
2019 ·· 11.3%
2017 32.2% 2019 34.3% 2 2.1%p
(··+SOC) 2017 10.0%
2019 8.2%
[ 8] GDP < 3> : % : %
2017 2018 2019
14.5 15.0 15.0
1.7 1.5 1.5
1.7 1.6 1.6 R&D 4.8 4.6 4.4
4.6 3.8 4.0
SOC 5.4 4.4 4.2
4.8 4.6 4.3 9.8 10.1 9.9
1.1 1.1 1.1
4.4 4.5 4.3
15.9 16.1 16.3
: :
2~3
1~2
.
2. 2019 - 17 -
·FTA ‘ ’
· FTA (sub-agreement)
, ,
,
(leakage)
,
[ 9] [ 10]
: =100 : , %
: :
,
() : 2018 -1.7% → 2019 -2.1%
, 80%
18.0%(2017 )
, .
2019 ·
( , ,
) ,
2. 2019 - 19 -
[ 11] [ 12] : 2015=100. % : %
: : ,
,
,
SOC
,
6~7
, 2017 2
2018
- 20 -
[ 13] [ 14] : : =0
: :
[ 15] SOC [ 16] : : %
: , : ,
: *
,
,
(2018 1.1~11.20) : 27.0%, 11.8%
2. 2019 - 21 -
(2018 1.1~11.20) : 17.9%, 4.7%
(2018 1~3) : 32.1%, 9.9%
, ‘ '
< 4> 2018 : 10, %, %
2017 1.1~11.20 2018 1.1~11.20
505.0 100.0 536.9 100.0 6.3
420.7 83.3 423.8 78.9 0.7
84.4 16.7 113.1 21.1 34.0
() 57.2 11.3 56.0 10.4 -2.1
:
: 1651 → 1645 , -0.3% 1)
D (DDR4 4Gb, $) : (2018.1)4.90 → (7)3.99 →(9)3.66 → (11)3.35
NAND (MLC 64Gb, $) : (2018.1)4.03 →(7)3.42→(9)3.07→ (11)2.90
(%) : (2018.1)53.3→ (7)31.6 →(8)31.5 → (9)28.3 → (10)22.1 →
(11)11.6
, (M&A)
1) (WSTS), ‘ ’2018.11
- 22 -
2.6% ,
2.3%
: 2018 2.6% → 2019 2.3%
2019 , ,
,
,
(IMF): 2.9% (4)→ 2.6% (10 )
(ADB): 2.8% (9)→ 2.6% (11 )
2019
2.65%( 8~9 )→ 2.62% (10~11 ) → 2.45% (12 )
12 17
2.6~2.7% , 0.2~0.3%
< 5> : %
2018 2019
IMF(10) 2.8 2.6
Moody's(11) 2.5 2.3
10~11 2.68 2.62 12 2.65 2.45
(2)
1~10 4 5
= (2014)
- 24 -
14
,
1~10 ,
118, 5 9 .
1, 2
[ 17] [ 18] (2018 1~10) : :
: :
2%
: 2018 1.6% → 2019 1.8%
,
, ,
1.5%
/
2. 2019 - 25 -
,
[ 19] () [ 20](M2) : % : %
: :
2%
: 2017 10, 11 1.8%, 1.3%
11
.
- 26 -
[ 21] [ 22] : % : %
: :
(3)
50bp
( GDP GDP )
,
2%
2. 2019 - 27 -
[ 23] · [ 24] : % : , %
: : OECD, Economic Outlook No 104 -
November 2018
3 : 2018 1.6% → 2019 1.80%∼2.00%
11 0.25%p ,
, ()
3 1.80%∼2.00%
- 28 -
[ 25] [ 26] : % : %
: :
·
2013 / (-0.41)
/
,
, ,
2. 2019 - 29 -
[ 27] 2018 / [ 28] : /() : 10, /
: :
, · , , ,
< 6> 2018~2019 ()
2017 2018 2019
3.0 2.4 2.9
1.9 3.5 3.2 7.0 1.0 -1.1
( %) 1.9 1.6 1.8 () 316 105 95
3 (%) 1.8 2.1 1.9
(/) 1,131 1,100 1,120
3. - 33 -
3.
.
· ,
· ·
,
.
J
17 1/3
,
, ,
‘’
.
(Back to the Basic)
‘ ’
‘i ’
i ‘’ i idea(), initiative(), invention(
) ,innovation()
(i) (idea)
(invention) (innovation) (initiative)
·
, ,
- 35 -
469.6, , 2018.12
2018.12
(WSTS), ‘ ’2018.11
·, '19 : Resume of Oversupply?,
, 2018.12
, 2019 , ,
2018.12
OECD, Economic Outlook No 104 - November 2018, 2018.11
EIA( ), , 2018.12
IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct. 2018, 2018.10
ADB, Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2018 Update, 2018.9
ADB, Asian Development Outlook 2018 Supplement , 2018.12
YDI Report (YR2018-03)
2019
02) 6288-0502
02) 6288-0558
,
.
www.ydi.or.kr .
,
.
: (02) 6288-0502
,
, ,
· ,
()
( ) , ,
( )
: ,
,
,
,
2. 2019
4(101.0) , 12
(100)
() ,
,
,
) ,
, SOC
,
SOC
,
· ,
· ,
, ' '
(M&A)
2.6% , 2.3%
,
2%
,
/
/
( )
,
2018~2019 ()
2017 2018 2019
2.6 3.0 2.8 7.6 -3.5 -4.5
14.6 -1.7 -2.1 3.0 2.4 2.9
1.9 3.5 3.2
7.0 1.0 -1.1 ( %) 1.9 1.6 1.8
() 316 105 95 3 (%) 1.8 2.1 1.9
(/) 1,131 1,100 1,120
the Basic’
’
(idea) (invention) (innovation) (initiative)
, ,
(1) ···················································································································3
(2) ···················································································································8
(3) ·················································································································10
(1) ·················································································································15
3. ·····································································33
················································································································35
< 3> ················································································16
< 4> 2018 ····························································································21
< 5> ······················································23
< 6> 2018~2019 () ···································································29
[ 2] ·····················································································5
[ 3] ·····································································5
[ 4] OECD ·························································································6
[ 5] ···································································································11
[ 6] / ································································································11
[ 7] ·························································································15
[ 8] GDP ··············································································16
[ 9] ·······························································································17
[ 13] ·································································································20
[ 14] ···············································································20
[ 15] SOC ····························································································20
[ 16] ···········································································20
[ 17] ·························································································24
[ 18] (2018 1~10) ·······································································24
[ 19] () ·····································································25
[ 20] (M2) ························································································25
[ 21] ·······················································································26
[ 22] ···············································································26
[ 23] · ·················································································27
[ 24] ·································································································27
[ 25] ·····················································································28
[ 26] ···································································································28
[ 27] 2018 / ··········································································29
[ 28] ·······································································29
1. 2019
1. 2019
· ,
IMF, 2018 3.7% →2019 3.7%, OECD, 2018 3.7% →2019 3.5%
< 1> 2019 : %
2017
(IMF)
3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5
2.2 2.9 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8
1.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0
3.1 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.8 6.9 6.6 6.2 6.6 6.3
1.5 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 6.7 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.3
1.0 1.4 2.4 1.2 2.1
: IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct. 2018 , OECD, Economic Outlook, Nov. 2018
(· )
‘ ’
OECD , 2019
0.5%
GDP 0.8%, 2%
- 4 -
: OECD
600
3: 2019 7
4: 2019~21 0.5%p
( )
2009
OECD , ,
(+) (-)
2%
1. 2019 - 5 -
[ 2] : deviations of actual GDP from potential GDP as %
OECD 2019 , 5 3.9% → 9 3.7% → 11 3.5% 0.4%p
[ 3] : %
: IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct. 2018, ECD, Economic Outlook, Nov. 2018
OECD →
OECD (CLI:Composite Leading Index) 6~9
, 100 , 100
10 OECD CLI 99.36 (99.49) 0.13p . 12
- 6 -
CLI
[ 4] OECD
() 2%
,
10 (PMI) 58.4
1. 2019 - 7 -
, 12 11 ,
3
() · , ,
1%
·
232
2019 10 : 8%→10%
2014 4, 5% 8%
10% ,
() ·
6%
·
3 7 /
- 8 -
() 2016 , 2017 (GST, )
. ,
, 2018 2019
7%
() 2018
, , ,
,
(2)
, , OPEC
1. 2019 - 9 -
< 2> : /
2017
EIA
(2018.12)
: EIA( )
: ( )
()
() OPEC OPEC
() ,
12.7 OPEC+(OPEC+ 10)
6 120 (`18 10 )
, , 8
(waiver)
( )
.
- 10 -
→ → →
(3)
: 87.5(1/31) → 97.2(12/4) 11.1%
: , ,
,
`19
·
: ,
, ECB
,
1. 2019 - 11 -
,
10
,
[ 5] [ 6] / : 1973 3 =100 : /
: :
: /, /
2. 2019
2. 2019
4(101.0) , 12
(100)
10 98.8, 2009 4 9 6
[ 7] : %
:
9.5% (4.6%)
- 16 -
(+) 4.1% 2
‘ ’
2019 ·· 11.3%
2017 32.2% 2019 34.3% 2 2.1%p
(··+SOC) 2017 10.0%
2019 8.2%
[ 8] GDP < 3> : % : %
2017 2018 2019
14.5 15.0 15.0
1.7 1.5 1.5
1.7 1.6 1.6 R&D 4.8 4.6 4.4
4.6 3.8 4.0
SOC 5.4 4.4 4.2
4.8 4.6 4.3 9.8 10.1 9.9
1.1 1.1 1.1
4.4 4.5 4.3
15.9 16.1 16.3
: :
2~3
1~2
.
2. 2019 - 17 -
·FTA ‘ ’
· FTA (sub-agreement)
, ,
,
(leakage)
,
[ 9] [ 10]
: =100 : , %
: :
,
() : 2018 -1.7% → 2019 -2.1%
, 80%
18.0%(2017 )
, .
2019 ·
( , ,
) ,
2. 2019 - 19 -
[ 11] [ 12] : 2015=100. % : %
: : ,
,
,
SOC
,
6~7
, 2017 2
2018
- 20 -
[ 13] [ 14] : : =0
: :
[ 15] SOC [ 16] : : %
: , : ,
: *
,
,
(2018 1.1~11.20) : 27.0%, 11.8%
2. 2019 - 21 -
(2018 1.1~11.20) : 17.9%, 4.7%
(2018 1~3) : 32.1%, 9.9%
, ‘ '
< 4> 2018 : 10, %, %
2017 1.1~11.20 2018 1.1~11.20
505.0 100.0 536.9 100.0 6.3
420.7 83.3 423.8 78.9 0.7
84.4 16.7 113.1 21.1 34.0
() 57.2 11.3 56.0 10.4 -2.1
:
: 1651 → 1645 , -0.3% 1)
D (DDR4 4Gb, $) : (2018.1)4.90 → (7)3.99 →(9)3.66 → (11)3.35
NAND (MLC 64Gb, $) : (2018.1)4.03 →(7)3.42→(9)3.07→ (11)2.90
(%) : (2018.1)53.3→ (7)31.6 →(8)31.5 → (9)28.3 → (10)22.1 →
(11)11.6
, (M&A)
1) (WSTS), ‘ ’2018.11
- 22 -
2.6% ,
2.3%
: 2018 2.6% → 2019 2.3%
2019 , ,
,
,
(IMF): 2.9% (4)→ 2.6% (10 )
(ADB): 2.8% (9)→ 2.6% (11 )
2019
2.65%( 8~9 )→ 2.62% (10~11 ) → 2.45% (12 )
12 17
2.6~2.7% , 0.2~0.3%
< 5> : %
2018 2019
IMF(10) 2.8 2.6
Moody's(11) 2.5 2.3
10~11 2.68 2.62 12 2.65 2.45
(2)
1~10 4 5
= (2014)
- 24 -
14
,
1~10 ,
118, 5 9 .
1, 2
[ 17] [ 18] (2018 1~10) : :
: :
2%
: 2018 1.6% → 2019 1.8%
,
, ,
1.5%
/
2. 2019 - 25 -
,
[ 19] () [ 20](M2) : % : %
: :
2%
: 2017 10, 11 1.8%, 1.3%
11
.
- 26 -
[ 21] [ 22] : % : %
: :
(3)
50bp
( GDP GDP )
,
2%
2. 2019 - 27 -
[ 23] · [ 24] : % : , %
: : OECD, Economic Outlook No 104 -
November 2018
3 : 2018 1.6% → 2019 1.80%∼2.00%
11 0.25%p ,
, ()
3 1.80%∼2.00%
- 28 -
[ 25] [ 26] : % : %
: :
·
2013 / (-0.41)
/
,
, ,
2. 2019 - 29 -
[ 27] 2018 / [ 28] : /() : 10, /
: :
, · , , ,
< 6> 2018~2019 ()
2017 2018 2019
3.0 2.4 2.9
1.9 3.5 3.2 7.0 1.0 -1.1
( %) 1.9 1.6 1.8 () 316 105 95
3 (%) 1.8 2.1 1.9
(/) 1,131 1,100 1,120
3. - 33 -
3.
.
· ,
· ·
,
.
J
17 1/3
,
, ,
‘’
.
(Back to the Basic)
‘ ’
‘i ’
i ‘’ i idea(), initiative(), invention(
) ,innovation()
(i) (idea)
(invention) (innovation) (initiative)
·
, ,
- 35 -
469.6, , 2018.12
2018.12
(WSTS), ‘ ’2018.11
·, '19 : Resume of Oversupply?,
, 2018.12
, 2019 , ,
2018.12
OECD, Economic Outlook No 104 - November 2018, 2018.11
EIA( ), , 2018.12
IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct. 2018, 2018.10
ADB, Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2018 Update, 2018.9
ADB, Asian Development Outlook 2018 Supplement , 2018.12
YDI Report (YR2018-03)
2019
02) 6288-0502
02) 6288-0558
,
.
www.ydi.or.kr .
,
.
: (02) 6288-0502