years industrial indicators · 2018-05-20 · jan-oct16 real sales1 3.7 1.7 11.9 -1.3 worked hours...

Recovery is still slowIndustry remains on a moderate recovery path. On the one hand, the indicators of real sales, real total payroll and real earning show a clearer positive trend driven by falling inflation. On the other hand, hours worked, employment and capacity utilization have experienced small fluctuations in recent months without following a definite trend. All in all, these results suggest that the variables surveyed remain at low levels and reinforce a scenario of weak industrial activity.

In the year to date, most indices are still down on a year-on-year basis. Employment and hours

worked show the steepest declines: down by 3.2% and 2.6% respectively. Sales are also down by 1.3%, while total payroll shows a 2.2% decline. The indicator of real average earnings is the only one to record growth on this comparison basis.

In October, the seasonally adjusted capacity utilization rate stood at 77.7%, up by 1.6 percentage points from the figure registered in the same month in 2016. Yet, idleness remains very high: capacity utilization in October 2017 is 3.7 percentage points lower than the average for October in previous years.

CNI IndicatorsISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 10 • October 2017

INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS

2525YEARS

Industrial indicators - October 2017 Seasonally adjusted change from september 2017

Ç REAL SALES Up by 1.7%

Ç HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Down by 0.7%Indústria Petrolífera

Indústria Química

Pequena Média Grande

Indústrias Diversas

Indústria da Construção Indústria de Energia

Ç CAPACITY UTILIZATIONUp by 0.2 percentage point

Ç EMPLOYMENT Up by 0.1%

Ç REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Up by 0.3%

Ç REAL AVERAGE EARNINGSUp by 0.9%

2

Industrial indicatorsISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 10 • October 2017

Decline in hours worked Hours worked in production dropped by 0.7% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis. In the previous three months, the index held almost steady as it grew by 0.2% in July and September and by 0.1% in August. Hours worked in October 2017 are 0.3% higher than those recorded in the same month the year before. In the January-October 2017 period, the indicator is down by 2.6% from the corresponding period in 2016.

Sales grow again in October Industrial sales edged up by 1.7% in October in the seasonally adjusted series, accumulating growth of 1.9% in the last two months. Sales are up by 11.9% in October 2017 on a year-over-year basis. Nevertheless, the indicator is down by 1.3% in the first ten months of 2017 as compared to the corresponding period the year before.

Oct/14 Apr/15 Oct/15 Apr/16 Oct/16 Apr/17 Oct/17

100

110

120

130


98

102

106

110

114


85

90

95

100

105

Jobs holding steady After remaining stable in the previous month, industrial employment increased by 0.1% in October as compared to September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Jobs are down by 1.3% as compared to October 2016 and by 3.2% in the year to October 2017 from the same period in 2016.

Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV

EmploymentSeasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

Real SalesSeasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

Hours worked in productionSeasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

3



77

79

81

83

Real average earnings also growOctober 2017 saw a 0.9% seasonally adjusted year-on-year gain in real average earnings. The increase only partially offset the 2.3% drop seen in the previous month. Yet, real average earnings in October 2017 are 1.2% higher than the figure recorded in the same month last year, while the indicator is up by 1% in the year to October from the corresponding period of 2016.

Deflator: INPC-IBGE

Capacity utilization keeps fluctuatingThe capacity utilization rate stood at 77.7% in October 2017, representing a 0.2-percentage point increase in seasonally adjusted terms. The indicator has hovered around 77.5% in the last four months without following a definite trend. Nevertheless, the indicator for October 2017 is up by 1.6 percentage points from the same month last year, while the average capacity utilization rate in the first 10 months of 2017 is virtually the same as that observed in the corresponding period of 2016 (up by only 0.1 percentage points).

77.7%

Total payroll slightly upReal total payroll rose by 0.3% in October in the seasonally adjusted series. During the second half of the year, the indicator has been alternating between negative and positive monthly variations, but the declines have been more pronounced. In October 2017, total payroll experienced a 0.2% decline as compared to the same month in 2016, while the year-to-date figure is down by 2.2% from the corresponding period of 2016.

Deflator: INPC-IBGE


110

115

120

125

130


110

115

120

125

130

Real total payrollSeasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

Capacity utilizationSeasonally adjusted (average percentage)

Indústria Petrolífera

Indústria Química

Pequena Média Grande

Indústrias Diversas

Indústria da Construção Indústria de Energia


1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE

PERCENTAGE CHANGE OCT17/ SEP17 OCT17/ SEP17SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

OCT17/ OCT16 JAN-OCT17/JAN-OCT16

Real sales1 3.7 1.7 11.9 -1.3

Worked hours in production 0.9 -0.7 0.3 -2.6

Employment 0.1 0.1 -1.3 -3.2

Real total payroll2 1.1 0.3 -0.2 -2.2

Real average earnings2 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.0

AVERAGE PERCENTAGE OCT17 SEP17 OCT16

Capacity utilization 79.2 78.4 77.6

Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted 77.7 77.5 76.1

Resume of results - Industrial indicators

Learn more

i For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais

INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS | English version of “Indicadores industriais outubro/2017” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited.

years industrial indicators · 2018-05-20 · jan-oct16 real sales1 3.7 1.7 11.9 -1.3 worked hours...

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