yemen project summary - aapor...yemen project summary broadcasting board of governors survey field...

7/5/2011

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Gary Langer

Langer Research Associates

[email protected]

Yemen project summary Broadcasting Board of Governors survey

Field work: D3 Systems/Yemen Polling Center

Design/Analysis: D3/Langer Research Associates

National, area‐probability sample

1,112 face‐to‐face interviews Dec. 9‐29, 2010

59 native Arabic‐speaking interviewers, 10 field supervisors

Avg. 52‐minute interview; 99 substantive questions, 21 demographics, 28 QC‐management

MOE +/‐3 points at 95% confidence level

Presentation summary Research Methodology / Fieldwork

Yemenis’ evaluations of national institutions and local conditions

Preferences for governance

Relevant personal characteristics, interests and information

Indices of disaffection and engagement

Aimed at understanding of key elements of public sentiment in Yemen – essential for effective engagement/communication

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Background: Historical Notes Arab‐Muslim country with a

population of 23.8 million

Ottoman and British occupation in the 19th and 20th

century

1962: Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) formed through military coup

1967: Civil war leads to the creation of the socialist People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY)

1990: North and South unite under YAR President Ali Abdallah Saleh

View of Sana’a

7/5/20114D3 Systems, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential

Information © 2011 All Rights Reserved

Photos Taken by D3 in December 2010:Sana’a

Background Continued… 2000: USS Cole bombing highlights

the danger of transnational terrorist groups in Yemen

2001: Yemen becomes a US ally in fighting terrorism / 2002 Yemen expels 100 foreigners suspected of Al‐Qaeda ties

2004: followers of the dissident cleric Hussein Al‐Houthi revolt against the central government. Al‐Houthi is assassinated later that year sparking insurgent violence in the North

2007‐2010: Islamic militants carry out a number of attacks on government and foreign targets in Yemen



Photos Taken by D3 in December 2010:Sana’a

Background Continued…

YemenPopulation

Gender

Male 51%

Female 49%

Age

15‐29 55%

30‐49 29%

50+ 16%

Geographic

Urban 27%

Rural 73%7/5/2011

6D3 Systems, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential Information © 2011 All Rights Reserved

Photos Taken by D3 in December 2010:Al Mahwit and Sana’a

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Conflict: “High Risk” Areas

“High Risk” areas are marked in orange.

D3 was able to gain access to 20 of 21 governorates despite ongoing conflict

The Yemeni government restricts access to volatile areas or cause government shutdown of research projects due to this instability.7/5/2011

7D3 Systems, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential Information © 2011 All Rights Reserved


Information © 2011 All Rights Reserved8

TRAINING/FIELD WORK IN YEMEN

Training D3 and its local partner held two, four‐

day training workshops for the field researchers and supervisors participating in the project.

D3 staff assisted in the training workshops in Sana’a and observed field interviews in Sana’a and Al Mahwit.

Interviewers and supervisors were trained on the questionnaire, conducting the interviews, recording answers, sampling, choosing the starting‐point in the PSUs, and selecting households/respondents.

The training also involved a practical exercise: every researcher conducted one mock interview at the end of the first day, and two real interviews by the end of the second day.



Photos Taken by D3 in December 2010:Field Team Training Sana’a

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BBG Survey – Fieldwork December 9 to December 29, 2010 – interviews = 1,112

D3’s local partner was required by the Yemeni government to stop fieldwork on December 13th.

During this time, the local partner continued to carry out interviews, while exercising the utmost caution.

Field resumed in full‐force on December 17th.

Questionnaire consisted of 99 substantive questions, 21 demographics, and 28 quality control‐management questions.

The field force consisted of 59 native Arabic‐speaking interviewers, along with 10 field supervisors.

The average length of completed interviews was 52 minutes.

The margin of sampling error is +/‐ 2.94% at the 95% confidence level.





Photos Taken by D3 in December 2010:Al Mahwit

Training and Field Photos




Photos Taken by D3 in December 2010

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Photos Taken by D3 in December 2010:Security Check Point outside of Sana’a

Guard in Sana’a

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Photos Taken by D3 in December 2010The Sheep-cycle

A few basics 73% have monthly HH income <60K rials (<$280)

59% no more than intermediate school education; includes 37% w/ no formal education

29% illiterate

62% of men are unemployed (38%) or self‐employed (24%)

35% have no power line electricity, inc. half w/ generator access, half with no power whatsoever

Pop. is 71% rural

84% reside in North Yemen

Attitudinally…

Performance RatingsSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

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Men More Negative(DKs percentaged out)

Men Women Pos-Neg Pos-Neg

Central gov’t 50-50 0 57-43 +14District gov’t 35-65 -30 43-57 -14Police 47-53 -6 64-36 +28Army 68-32 +48 70-30 +40

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Saleh FavorabilitySource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Saleh Favorability by RegionSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Life a year from now...Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors

39% 40%

20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Rightdirection

Wrongdirection

No opinion

Yemen is headed…Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors

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Negative groups Men:

52% “wrong direction” vs. 28% among women; “right direction” 34% vs. 44%.

“Life worse” 23% among men, 14% among women. Elders:

“Life better” 38% among 50+ vs. 53% among <25. (Similar by sex.)

“Right direction” 43% among younger men vs. 30% among men 50+.

South Yemen: “Wrong track” 69% vs. 35% in the North; “life better” 38% vs. 50%.

Effect of Complaining About a Gov’t Official

Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Ratings of Local ConditionsSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

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Preferred Form of GovernmentSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Preference for Democracy by GroupsSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Gov’t Follow Islamic PrinciplesSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Very

Somewhat

83%

6%

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Follow Islamic Principles - GroupsSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

88%

78%

72%

ReligiositySource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Interest/Information LevelsSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

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Interest/Info., Younger/Older MenSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Favorability RatingsSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Influences on OpinionsSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

85%

65%

34%32%

25%23%

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Disaffection Index Engagement Index Combination of (α=.85):

Ratings of the work of: central gov’t, district gov’t, police, army

Favorability ratings of: gov’t in general, parliament, Saleh

Satisfaction with progress toward system of rules

Effect of complaining about a gov’t official

Variables recoded, inc. intensity, and standardized so that higher scores = more disaffection

Had to answer at least 5 of the 9 questions to get a score

Combination of (α=.94):

Interest in/informed about: governorate events, Yemen events, world events, Arab country policies, U.S. policies, Yemen culture, Arab culture, Western culture

Interest in news about: Yemen, Arab, Europe, U.S.

Variables recoded, inc. intensity, and standardized so that higher scores = greater engagement.

Had to answer at least 8 of the 20 questions in order to get a score.

Disaffection and Engagement Indices


Disaffection: Young men/older men n.s.; men/women < .001. Engagement: Young men/older men marginally sig.; men/women < .001.

Disaffection/Engagement - RegionSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

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Disaffection/Engagement: Urban/Rural


Disaffection Index Engagement Index

Low disaffection (0‐2 Qs neg.)

All 57%

Men 47%

Women 67%

Moderate disaffection (3‐5 neg.)

All 23%

Men 24%

Women 22%

High disaffection (6‐9 neg.)

All 20%

Men 29%

Women 11%

Low engagement (0‐5 Qs pos.)

All 55%

Men 39%

Women 71%

Moderate engagement (6‐13 pos.)

All 34%

Men 42%

Women 25%

High engagement (14‐20 pos.)

All 11%

Men 19%

Women 4%

Take‐aways Significant levels of disaffection, skepticism of gov’t

Broad, deep economic discontent, development needs

Majority support for democracy, higher among men –guided by strict Islamic principles

Inward‐looking society, low info./interest beyond local

Broad, deeply suspicions of the United States

Family, friends, associates and religious leaders are the prime levers of influence

Not Kansas: Any approach should be Yemen‐centric

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Gary Langer

Langer Research Associates

[email protected]

yemen project summary - aapor...yemen project summary broadcasting board of governors survey field...

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