you must kiss a lot of frogs to find a prince. 3m folklore creativity leads to success. but too much...
TRANSCRIPT
You must kiss a lot of frogs to find a prince.
3M Folklore
Creativity leads to success. But too much success robs you of the time to create.
Anon.
Idea Generation
New Products–2
Barriers to creativity
More visualization Forced connections (lateral thinking or divergent
thinking)RelaxationCreativity-aiding tools
Overcoming barriers to creativity
Understanding Individual Creativity
Past experience
Quick judgment
Fear of failure
Poor problem definition
New Products–3
2,000 Ideas
100 Scripts
20 Pilots
5 Scheduled for prime time
1 Success
Ideas for TV Series
New Products–4
Some Tools for Idea Generation
Small’s Ideation Stimulator
Mindlink - Synectics Process
Idea Fisher - Forced connections
New Products–5
1. Can the dimensions be changed?Larger Economy-size packages, photo enlargements, puffed cerealsSmaller U.S. paper market, hearing aids, tabloid newspapers, pocket flashlight,
microfilmLonger King-sized cigarettes, typewriter carriage for bookkeepingShorter Men’s shorts, woman’s pantiesThicker Rug pads, heavy edge on drinking glasses, glass bricksThinner Nylon hose, seersucker suits, wristwatchesDeeper Deeper pockets in work clothes and army uniforms, grooved battery platesShallower Wading pools, children's drinking fountainStand vertically Skyscrapers (to increase floor space on expensive land), upright pianoPlace horizontally Ranch-style homes (to avoid stair climbing)Make slanted or parallel Reading stands, car mirror, eyeglass framesStratify Plywood, storage pallets, layer cakeInvert (reverse) Reversible coats, soft shoes to be worn on either foot, inverted ink and glue
standsCrosswise (bias, counter) Bias brassieres and slips, pinking shearsConverge Mechanical artificial hands, ice tongsEncircle Spring cake form, knitted coasters to slip on bottoms of highball glasses, Life-
SaversIntervene Buffers used in drug products to temper a harsh active ingredientDelineate Contour lathe, Scotchlite reflective sheetingBorder Mats for pictures, movable office partitions, room separatorsSource: From Marvin Small, How to Make More Money (New York: Pocket Books, 1959). Copyright 1953, 1981, Marvin Small.
Reprinted by permission of Pocket Books, a Simon & Schuster division of Gulf and Western Corporation.
©
Small’s Ideation Stimulator
2. Can the quantity be changed?More Extra-pants suits, three stockings (a pair with a spare)Less Variety of 1-ounce boxes of cereals, ginger ale splitsChange proportions Nested chairs or dishes, hot-cold water faucetsFractionate Separate packing of crackers inside single box, 16-mm movie film usable as two
8mm films, faucet sprayJoin something Trailer, hose couplingsAdd something to it Cigarette filter tipCombined with something Amphibious auto, outboard motors,roadable airplanesComplete Freezer unit added to refrigerator, Bendix washer and dryer single unit
3. Can the order be changed?Arrangement Car steering wheels left handed in United States, right-handed in England, Dewey-
decimal system of filingPrecedence Rear-drive automobilesBeginning Self-starter, red tab to open cigarette package, red string to open Band-AidsAssembly or disassembly Prefabricated articles, knockdown boat kitsFocus Kellogg packages--Name placed in corner instead of center, Hathaway shirt ads--
man with eye patch
4. Can the time element be changed?Faster Quick-drying ink, dictating machine, intercom systemSlower High-tenacity yarns for longer-life tires, 33 1/3-rpm long-playing recordsLonger Jiffy insulated bags for ice cream, wood preservativeShorter Pressure cooker, one-minute x-ray machineChronologized Defrosting devices, radio clocksPerpetuated Photographs, metal plating, permanent magnetsSynchronized Uniform vacation periods, group travel toursAnticipated Thermostat, freezer food-buying planRenewed Self-charging battery, self -winding watchesRecurrence Switch clocks for lights and electrical appliancesAlternated Cam drive, electric current
Small’s Ideation Stimulator
New Product Management (Spring 1998), The Penn State University 6
5. Can the cause or effect be changed?Stimulated GeneratorEnergized Magneto, power steeringStrengthened AC-DC transformer, Simonize car coatingLouder Volume control, acoustical aidsSofter Sound insulator, rubber heelsAltered Antifreeze chemicals, meat tenderizersDestroyed Tree spraying, breath and perspiration deodorantsInfluenced Legislation to permit sale of colored oleo, wetting agent catalystCounteracted Circuit breaker, air-conditioning, filters
6. Can there be a change in character?Stronger Dirt-resistant paintWeaker Pepsi-Cola made less sweet, children’s aspirinAltered Aged or blended whiskey, transit-mixed cementConverted Convertiplanes (for vertical and horizontal flight)Substituted Low-calorie salad dressing (made without oils)Interchanged Interchangeable parts, all-size socksStabilized Sperry gyroscope, waterproof plastic bandageReversed Two-way locomotivesResilient Foam-rubber upholstery, cork floorsUniformity Standards in foods, drugs, fuels, liquorsCheaper Coach air travel, paper cupsMore expensive Cigarettes in cardboard or metal boxes, deluxe editions of booksAdd color Color television, colored plasticsChange color Variously colored toothbrush handles, automobiles, electric light bulbs
Small’s Ideation Stimulator
New Product Management (Spring 1998), The Penn State University 7
7. Can the form be changed?Animated Moving staircases, package conveyorsStilled Air brakesSpeeded Meat-slicing machineSlowed Shock absorbers, gravel drivewayDirected FlowermetersDeviated Traffic islandsAttracted Magnetic devisesRepelled Electrically charged fencingAdmitted TurnstilesBarred Gate, fenceLifted Forklift truckLowered Ship locksRotated Waring blender, boring machinesOscillated Electric fanAgitated Electric scalp stimulator
Small’s Ideation Stimulator
New Product Management (Spring 1998), The Penn State University 8
8. Can the use be adapted?Men Colognes, lotionsWomen Colored-tip cigarettesChildren Junior-size tools, cowboy clothesOld Walking stick chairsHandicapped Chair liftsForeign Reader’s Digest foreign editions
9. Can the state or conditions be changed?Hotter Electric hot plates, washed coalColder Freezer, thermos jug, water coolerHarden Bouillon cubes, cream shampoo (instead of liquid)Soften Krilium soil conditioner, water softenersOpen or closed Visible record equipment, electronically operated doorsPreformed Prefabricated housing, prepared Tom Collins mixerDisposable Bottle caps, Chux disposable diapers, Kleenex tissuesIncorporated Counting register on printing press, cash registersParted Caterpillar tractors, split-level highwaysSolidified Bakelite and other plastics, citrus concentratesLiquefied Chemical plant foodsVaporized Nasal medical vaporizers Pulverized Powdered eggs, lawn mower attachments to powder leaves, Disposal garbage
pulverizerAbraded Snow tires or chainsLubricated Self-lubricating equipmentWetter Hydraulic brakesDrier De-Moist for cellars, tobacco curingInsulated Fiberglass, Dr. Scholl’s foot appliances (insulate feet against pressures)Effervesced Alka-SeltzerCoagulated Jell-O and Junket dessertsElasticized Latex girdles, bubble gum, beltsResistant Rubber footwearLighter Aluminum luggage, automatic electric blanketHeavier Can opener with weighted stand
New Product Management (Spring 1998), The Penn State University 9
Small’s Ideation Stimulator
We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know and those who don’t know that they don’t know.
- John Kenneth Galbraith
New Product Forecasting
New Products–11
Early stages of development
Chain ratio method
Judgmental methods
Scenario Analysis
Diffusion modeling
Later stages of development
Pre-test market methods
Test-market methods
Methods for Forecasting New Product Sales
New Products–12
Advantages of Chain Ratio Method
Helps forecaster use more information
Helps distribute errors
Can partition problem to different members of a project team
Can obtain expert help on specific parts
Can apply different methodologies to different parts
New Products–13
The Bass Diffusion Model
Model designed to answer the question:
When will customers adopt a new
product or technology?
New Products–14
Assumptions of theBasic Bass Model
Diffusion process is binary (consumer either adopts, or waits to adopt)
Constant maximum potential number of buyers (N)
Eventually, all N will buy the product
No repeat purchase, or replacement purchase
The impact of the word-of-mouth is independent of adoption time
Innovation is considered independent of substitutes
The marketing strategies supporting the innovation are not explicitly included
New Products–15
Adoption Probability over Time
Time (t)
Cumulative Probability of
Adoption up to Time t
F(t)
Introduction of product
(a)
Time (t)
Density Function: Likelihood of
Adoption at Time t
f(t) = d(F(t))dt
(b)
1.0
New Products–16
Number of Cellular Subscribers
Source: Cellular Telecommunication Industry Association
9,000,000
1983 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1,000,000
5,000,000
Years Since Introduction
New Products–17
Sales Growth Model for Durables (The Bass Diffusion Model)
St = p Remaining+ q Adopters Potential Remaining Potential
Innovation Imitation Effect Effect
where:
St = sales at time t
p = “coefficient of innovation”
q = “coefficient of imitation”
# Adopters = S0 + S1 + • • • + St–1
Remaining = Total Potential – # AdoptersPotential
New Products–18
Basic Elements of Scenario Analysis
Structure a scenario as a flowing narrative, not as a set of numerical parameters. Include verbal descriptions such as “rapid experience effects,” “FCC adoption of digital standard,” etc. Ideally, each scenario should also include how the situation described in the scenario will be reached from the present position.
Construct several scenarios that are approximately equally likely (Might also include scenarios that are most likely to happen, and least likely to happen). Describe all scenarios in the same manner, i.e., one is not more “vivid” than another.
Develop forecasts and strategies that are compatible with the scenarios:
Robust approaches that are resilient across scenarios (e.g., hedging, concurrent pursuit of multiple options, etc.)
Contingent approaches that postpone major commitments to the future.
New Products–19
Example Scenario
National or international standards on analog HDTV are adopted and HDTV gets a buy-in by all stakeholders. The implementation proceeds quickly. Production studios start producing TV programs in the new format, and cable and broadcast TV stations start a rapid upgrade of their equipment to HDTV format. HDTV sets are retailing at prices comparable to that of standard TVs of equivalent screen size. The market penetration starts ramping up almost immediately.
New Products–20
Another Scenario
A digital HDTV standard is adopted. HDTV sets employ new technology: they are costly and somewhat unreliable. It takes a few years to iron out the problems and for the industry to walk up the learning curve. Early adopters amongst consumers are frustrated and unhappy, they comment: “This technology just does not work”. TV stations drag their feet on upgrades because: “This costly change comes straight off our bottom line for no additional benefit to us. We will not get any additional advertising revenue or higher subscription rates from digital HDTV.” The penetration starts ramping up only after at least 8 years of lackluster sales.
New Products–21
Parameters of the Bass Model in Several Product Categories
Innovation ImitationProduct/ parameter
parameter Technology (p) (q)
B&W TV 0.028 0.25Color TV 0.005 0.84Air conditioners 0.010 0.42Clothes dryers 0.017 0.36Water softeners 0.018 0.30Record players 0.025 0.65Cellular telephones 0.004 1.76Steam irons 0.029 0.33Motels 0.007 0.36McDonalds fast food 0.018 0.54Hybrid corn 0.039 1.01Electric blankets 0.006 0.24
A study by Sultan, Farley, and Lehmann in 1990 suggests an average value of 0.03 for p and an average value of 0.38 for q.
New Products–22
Factors Affecting theRate of Diffusion
Product-related High relative advantage over existing products High degree of compatibility with existing approaches Low complexity Can be tried on a limited basis Benefits are observable
Market-related Type of innovation adoption decision (eg, does it involve
switching from familiar way of doing things?) Communication channels used Nature of “links” among market participants Nature and effect of promotional efforts
New Products–23
Some Extensions to theBasic Bass Model
Varying market potentialAs a function of product price, reduction in uncertainty in product performance, and growth in population, and increases in retail outlets.
Incorporation of marketing variablesCoefficient of innovation (p) as a function of advertising
p(t) = a + b ln A(t).
Effects of price and detailing.
Incorporating repeat purchases
Multi-stage diffusion processAwareness Interest Adoption Word of mouth