yves desaubies, on behalf of the mersea consortium
DESCRIPTION
The MERSEA Project: towards Marine Core Services from Global to regional ocean monitoring and forecasting. Yves Desaubies, On behalf of the Mersea Consortium. « Development of a European system for monitoring and forecasting … »; Environmental information for policy makers; - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
The MERSEA Project:towards Marine Core Services
from Global to regional ocean monitoring and forecasting
Yves Desaubies,On behalf of the Mersea Consortium
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
• « Development of a European system for monitoring and forecasting … »;Environmental information for policy makers; Reference information and data in support of marine
applications High quality data for
ocean scienceTowards Marine
Core Services
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
MERSEA Integrated Project
R&D project funded by the European Commission (FP6)
Thematic priority : SPACE - GMES
Ocean and Marine Applications for GMES (Global
Monitoring for Environment and Security)
4-year project (2004 –2008)
38 contractors, 16 countries (or Int. Org.) Coordination : IFREMER (Institut Français de Recherche pour
l’Exploitation de la Mer),
Participants : meteorological agencies, marine institutes,
research labs, small companies, …
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
GMES Marine Core Services
Combining in-situ and satellite data, with models to provide ocean monitoring and forecasting
Analysis, forecast and hindcast
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
MERSEA :data assimilation into ocean models
• Data assimilation (remote sensed, in situ) Altimetry, SST, ice, ocean colour
In situ profiles and surface : ARGO, XBT, CTD, SOOP
Forcing fields : ECMWF, or regional NWF
• Ocean physics, biogeochemistry and ecosystems A global system
Regional and shelf sea systems
Connection to coastal systems
• Marine Core Services for GMES (2008):
Contribution to Global Earth Observing Syst of Syst (GEOSS)
Nowcasts, forecasts, hindcasts
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
MERSEA :
A vision
A Project developing
A system
….. (pre-) opeational in 2008 !
… a work in progress
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
A schematic of the composite ocean observing systems, including the current status against the goals of the 2000 - 2010 implementation plan. (Johnson, JCOMM, OPA, NOAA/OCO)
The observing system for climate
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Remote sensing : from to R & D to production
• Merged altimetry (=> dynamic height) SSALTO / DUACS (Toulouse
• High resolution SST Medspiration, with GHRSST-PP (GODAE High Resolution SST)
• Ocean colour => chlorophyl, primary production JRC : Joint Research Centre
• Sea ice Concentration @ Eumetsat OSI- SAF; drift @ IFREMER
• Wind and fluxes ECMWF Merged products (scaterrometre + ECMWF) : CERSAT IFREMER
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Altimetry: merged products
Mean absolute dynamic topography
Mean sea level anomaly
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Wind fields: merged fields
Combine winds from Numerical Weather Prediction (ECMWF) with high resolution sattelite fields (scaterrometre)
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Sea surface temperature, (with GODAE High Resolution SST – PP)
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
SeaWifs-
MODIS
Chlorophyll a : 9 yrs analysis (EC Joint Research Center)
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Sea Ice Concentration and drift
R. Ezraty, 2005
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Research and development
• Modelling, assimilation, bio-geochemistry, ..Process representation, algorithms, parmeterisations,
numerics, codesTransfer to operational suites
• Downscaling, model nesting, zooms, boundary conditions,
• Data products, merged fields (multi-sensors), quality control, forcing fields
• Ecosystems in regional seas• Seasonal forecasting
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Resolution Equator 45°N 60°N
1/4° 27 km 19 km 13 .5 km
These models are resolving:•Eddies and fronts•Boundary currents•Coastal upwelling•sea-ice cover, thickness
Global ¼° NEMO-LIM simulation 1958-2000
The French DRAKKAR Group
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
The Drakkar Group, Barnier et al (CNRS)
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
The MERSEA System
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Production, information Management
8 Production centres (or networks), operated by Agencies Integration, consistency, quality of services
Common formats, standards, best practices Catalogues, inventories of products Data access and distribution ; archival Adapt product and delivery to user needs, user desk
Search and discovery;
Viewing
Download
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Area I : Global OceanArea II : North East AtlanticArea III : ArcticArea IV : Baltic SeaArea V : Mediterranean Sea
1
2
3
4
5
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Monitoring and Forecasting Centres
• Global : Mercator – Océan• North East Atlantic and NW shelves : Met Office
and the NCOF• Arctic : NERSC and met.no• Baltic : DMI• Mediterranean : INGV and the MOON network
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Mercator Océan
•French Centre for ocean monitoring and forecastingSupported by CNES, CNRS, IFREMER, IRD, SHOM and Météo-France
Vigourous R & D programme
Full suite of models with different resolution, relocatable high resolution
Development of a global 1/12°, with assimilation
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Global ¼° ocean model assimilating
satellite altimetry
a 1/15° Zoom on North Atlantic & Mediterranean assimilating satellite altimetry, Reynolds SST and in situ data
A precursor of the Global 1/12°
Global 2° assimilating
satellite altimetry
The Global Ocean Production system
Global Observation-based product (T&S, currents)
1 2
3
4
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
What does it deliver?
Real-Time production on a weekly basis, 3D fields of the ocean state Real-time analysis, 2 weeks of daily forecasts, maps & numerical fields,
Reference simulations
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
National Centre for Ocean Forecasting (NCOF)
(www.ncof.gov.uk) – a strategic partnership between:
(1) Ocean Forecasting R&D, Met Office
a) Operational global and regional wave analyses and 5 day forecasts.
b) Operational open ocean and shelf seas hydrodynamic (and ecosystem) analyses, hindcasts and 5 day forecasts.
c) Operational satellite products.
d) Links to internal observational and climate groups.
(2) Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory
a) ~40 year regional (and global) and process shelf seas models.
b) Wave hindcast and process models.
c) Links to internal process and observational capability.
Selected products only – see web site for details
(3) National Oceanographic Centre
a) ~40 year Open Ocean hindcast runs
b) Remote sensing facility.
c) Links to observational and process expertise and groups.
(4) Plymouth Marine Laboratories
a) Remote sensing operational and R&D capability.
b) Ecosystem modelling and process expertise.
(5) Environmental System Science Centre
a) ~40 year open ocean analyses.
b) Expertise in data management and services.
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007Observations
Model
viewing … North East Atlantic (different fields, model & observations)
FOAM model
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
From Global to regional to coastal seas :Analysis and forecasts
Exemples form the TOPAZ – NERSC system : North Sea and Gulf of Guinea
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Final users
• Offshore industry support, ship routing Products : currents, temperature, waves, sea- ice High resolution, nowcasts, forecasts, re-analysis for statistics,
extreme events Local to global
• Emergency : oil spill response, search and rescue Currents, temperature, surface, very high resolution, coastal Readiness, real-time, analysis and short term forecasts
• Coastal systems Coastal management, ecosystems, water quality, sea level
Observations are necessary,
Very high resolution, nesting into larger scale systems
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Prestige : oil spilled on the track
In green, areas with positive impact of Mercator currentsIn red, areas where MOTHY alone is better
MOTHY operational MOTHY + Mercator 103m
MOTHY and operational oceanography systemsMOTHY and operational oceanography systems
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Offshore industry support in Gulf of Mexico
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Gulf of Mexico Dynamics
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
SST Image of Loop Current and Eddies
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Service in support of the offshore oil and gas industry
http://www.oceannumerics.com
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
‘Edge’ - an improved nowcasting tool
• Further development of software tool for delineating fronts
• Permits use of all available satellite and in-situ data for delineation of best frontal boundary
• Utilises only latest images
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
QUALITY (Analysis, Short-term Forecast)
Offshore « Mars » Oil platform (SHELL) location
(Central North GOM)
Best Estimate Surface velocity for Day 05/09 around MARS location
ADCP velocities at 50 m vs PSY2V2 surface velocities
magnitude (upper panel) + direction (lower panel)
• Black line : ADCP records• Red line/Green Line /Blue line : alternate colors representingthe succession of 14 days of model forecasts issued weekly(warning : High frequencies are not filtered)
2005 Wintertime period (Feb-May)
ADCP Data*
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Forecast verification tables for decision-aid support
Numbers of MARS Model (ANA/F7/F14)
occurences platform outside inside
EOfronts
outside 7/7/7Correct
rejection
1/1/1False Alarm
inside 2/2/3Miss
7/7/6Hit
Table 2: Contingency table for the event « frontal
occurrence at the MARS location » over 17 weeks :
an indicator of model forecast performance
Binary event : “frontal occurrence at the MARS Offshore site”
Forecast range Overall mean shortest distance to front difference (in km)
(mean over 11 sites and 17 weeks)
shortest distance to front difference (in km) @ MARS
Platform : Mean/std deviation
Best estimate (Analysis)
16 14.7/13
1-week forecast 21 19/16.8
2-week forecast 22 23.4/23.5
Table 3: Distance-to-front errors as a function of the forecast length
User-specific metric = Similar methodology as in PROFS Deepstar Shootout Evaluation Study [Oey et al.,2005] & similar/improved statistics expected
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Comments
• Need to utilise multiple information streamsData coverage is essential, condition sine qua non
• Significant dependence upon forecaster’s interpretation and expertise
• The model won’t always get it right, but has definite, albeit limited skill
• Users expect very high accuracy• Ways to improve :
Local high resolution models and dataLocal data assimilation
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Real time current profiles in GoM
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
What is next : Marine Core Services
Part of the GMES architectureCall for proposals FP7, to cover transition 2008 =>
To provide basic service, to intermediate usersMonitoring and basic mapping;
Collect organise data collection, availability
Operational forecasting; Global and main regional areas
Intermediate users :Agencies (marine, meteorology), scienceReporting agencies (EEA, ICES, OSPAR)Value adding companies
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Summary, conclusions
• The systems are runningState of the art, continuous improvementProvide generic information and services (MCS)Nesting capabilitySeveral data streams, product lines (analysis,
forecasts, re-analysis), large catalogueObservations, observations, observations !!
• Specific applications require further expertise• Data policy must be clarified• Other issues
Sustainability, governance,
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
GODAE project office