zions bank economic overview...1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007...

ZionsBankEconomicOverview

BlackfootChamberofCommerce• March14,2018

National Economic Conditions

When Good News is Bad News

… Is Good News??

DowTops26,000– Up44%Since2016Election

Source:WallStreetJournal

TheDowExperiencedtheLargestPoint DeclineinHistory

Feb.5,2018-1,175


BusinessOptimismBooming

Source:TradingEconomics,NFIBSmallBusinessOptimismIndex

ConsumerConfidenceatHighestLevelSince2000

5060708090100110120130140

Oct-12

Feb-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Above110indicateseconomicprosperity

Source:TheConferenceBoard

February2018130.8

EconomicGrowthSlowedattheEndof2017butRemainsStrong

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

2012

2012

2012

2012

2013

2013

2013

2013

2014

2014

2014

2014

2015

2015

2015

2015

2016

2016

2016

2016

2017

2017

2017

2017

PersonalConsumption FixedInvestment NetExports

Inventories Government RealGDPGrowth

Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis

Q420172.5%

FebruaryJobIndicators

Indicator Expectation ActualTotalNonfarmPayrolls 205,000 313,000UnemploymentRate 4.0% 4.1%PrivatePayrolls 195,000 287,000MonthlyAverageHourlyWageGrowth 0.2% 0.2%

YearlyAverageHourlyWageGrowth 2.9% 2.6%

LaborForceParticipation 62.7% 63.0%

Sources:WallstreetJournalandBureauofLaborStatistics

FebruaryMarks89StraightMonthsofJobGrowth

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics

ButEmploymentGrowthRatesTrendingDown


UnemploymentRemainsat17-YearLow

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0% 1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

5.0%=FullEmployment


February20184.1%

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

67%

68%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

LaborForceParticipationRoseSlightlyinFebruary

February201863.0


AnnualWageGrowthSlowedinFebruary

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2007– 2017Average2.4%

February20182.6%


Sources:BureauofLaborStatisticsandBureauofEconomicAnalysis;Note:CoreCPIandCorePCErepresentallitemslessfoodandenergy

0.0%

0.50%

1.0%

1.50%

2.0%

2.50%

3.0%

3.50%2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Year-overchange

U.S.CoreCPI U.S.CorePCE

TheFedisMissingitsInflationTargetof2Percent

Jan.2018CoreCPI1.8%

Jan.2018CorePCE1.5%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source:U.S.FederalReserve

FederalFundsTargetRateSees5thIncreaseinOveraDecade

FederalFundsTargetRate=1.5%

December2017FedRateIncreaseProjections

Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserve

1.4%

2.1%

2.7%

3.1% 3.0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2017 2018 2019 2020 Longerrun

MarketsExpectMoreRateIncreases


IsaRecessionontheWay?


IdahoEconomic Conditions

PercentChange:2016to2017IDRate=2.2%U.S.Rate=0.7%

Loss

0.2%to0.6%

1.5%+

0.0%to0.1%

IdahoPopulationFastest GrowingintheUS

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

Loss

0.2%to0.6%

1.5%+

0.0%to0.1%

NM0.1%

UT1.9%

AZ1.6%

CA0.6%

NV2.0%

OR1.4%

TX1.4%

OK0.2%

CO1.4%

WA1.7%

ID2.2%

MT1.1%

WY-1.0%

ND0.0%

SD0.9%

MN0.9%

NE0.7%

KS0.3%

IA0.5%

MO0.4%

AR0.5%

LA0.0%

WI0.4%

IL-0.3%

IN0.5%

OH0.3%

FL1.6%

TN1.0%

KY0.4%

MS0.0%

AL0.3%

GA1.1%

SC1.3%

NC1.1%

VA0.7%

WV-0.7%

PA0.1%

NY0.1%

ME0.4%

AK-0.2%

HI-0.1%

MA0.5%

VT0.0%

NH0.6%

RI0.2%

CT0.0%

NJ0.4%

DE1.0%

MD0.5%

MI0.3%

DC1.4%

KS0.2%

0.7%to1.4%

IdahoPopulationGrowthRatesByCounty

2015to2016StateAverage=1.8%

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

3.0%+

1.8%to2.9%

Loss


Jerome1.2%

Jefferson2.5%

Idaho-0.6%

Gooding-0.1%

Gem1.6%

Fremont1.0%

Franklin2.9%

Elmore0.9%

Custer0.2%

Clearwater0.2%

Washington2.1%

Clark-1.4%

Valley4.1%

Cassia0.0%

TwinFalls1.7%

Caribou1.8%

Teton3.7%Canyon

2.2%

Shoshone0.0%

Camas0.7%

Power0.4%

Butte0.0%

Payette0.8%

Boundary3.1%

Owyhee0.7%

Bonneville2.0%

Bonner1.8%

NezPerce0.6%

Boise1.6%

Minidoka1.1%

Blaine1.1%

Madison2.5%

Bingham0.5%Lincoln

-0.7%

Benewah0.6%

Lewis1.6%

BearLake0.7%

Lemhi-0.4%

Bannock0.6%

Latah1.2%

Adams1.6%

Kootenai2.6%

Ada2.4%

Oneida1.3%

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,0001981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

NetMigration NaturalIncrease TotalPopulation

10,328

26,525

1,716,943

IdahoPopulationandComponentsofChange

Source:ZionsBankanalysisofU.S.CensusBureaudata

TotalPop

ulation

ComponentsofPopulationChange

PercentChangeinEmploymentforStates:Jan.2017toJan.2017U.S.Rate=1.6%;IDRate=2.8%


1.0%to1.5%

0.0%to0.9%

Loss

1.6%to1.9%

2.0%+

IdahoHasthe2nd Highest EmploymentGrowth


PercentChangeinIdahoEmploymentbyIndustry:January2017– January2018

1.6% 4.5% 4.3%

3.7% 0.0%

5.2% 1.1% 1.0%

4.4% 8.7%

-7.9%

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

GovernmentOtherServices

Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity

InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities

ManufacturingConstruction

Ntl.Res.&Mining

IdahoEmploymentGainsandLossesbyIndustry

Total:2.8%

2,0001,100

3,2003,700

01,800

1001,400

2,9003,800

-300

-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

GovernmentOtherServices

Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity

InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities

ManufacturingConstruction

Ntl.Res.&Mining

Total:19,700


IdahoEmploymentGainsandLossesbyIndustry

TotalChangeinIdahoEmploymentbyIndustry:January2017– January2018

IdahoEmploymentChangeRatesByCounty

December2016toDecember2017StateRate=2.1%

Source:IdahoDepartmentofLabor,TotalEmployment

1.0%to3.2%

0.0%to0.9%

5.0%+

3.3%to4.9%

Loss

VT3.4%

NH4.4%

MA3.8%

RI3.5%CT

3.9%NJ2.7%

MD2.6%

DC5.7%


IdahoHasthe7th LowestUnemploymentRateJanuary2018U.S.Rate=4.1%;ID=3.0%

6.0%+

5.5%to5.9%

4.8%to5.4%

4.0%to4.7%

3.9%orless

IdahoUnemployment

RatesByCountyDecember2017

StateRate=2.9%

Source:IdahoDepartmentofLabor

4.0%to5.9%

6.0%to6.9%

3.1%orlower

3.2%to3.9%

7.0%+

Jerome2.6%

Jefferson2.4%

Idaho4.6%

Gooding2.3%

Gem3.5%

Fremont2.6%

Franklin2.2%

Elmore3.4%

Custer4.9%

Clearwater6.2%

Washington4.4% Clark

1.9%

Valley4.2%

Cassia2.2%

TwinFalls2.6%

Caribou3.2%

Teton2.6%Canyon

3.3%

Shoshone5.7%

Camas2.4%

Power3.3%

Butte3.0%

Payette3.4%

Boundary4.3%

Owyhee3.9%

Bonneville2.5%

Bonner3.9%

NezPerce2.6%

Boise4.8%

Minidoka2.7%

Blaine2.6%

Madison1.7%

Bingham3.0%Lincoln

3.1%

Benewah4.7%

Lewis5.1%

BearLake3.5%

Lemhi5.0%

Bannock2.9%

Latah2.4%

Adams4.9%

Kootenai3.8%

Ada2.7%

Oneida2.2%

IdahoPersonalIncomeGrowthHighestintheNation

PercentChangeinPersonalIncome:2016Q3–2017Q3U.S.=2.6%, ID= 4.6%

NH3.0%

NM0.5%

UT3.3%

AZ2.4%

CA3.8%

NV2.2%

OR3.6%

TX2.8%

OK2.1%

CO2.9%

WA4.6%

ID4.6%

MT3.5%

WY2.6%

ND0.5%

SD0.5%

MN2.3%

NE1.3%

KS0.2%

IA-0.1%

MO2.2%

AR3.3%

LA2.5%

WI1.2%

IL1.3%

IN2.2%

OH2.0%

FL3.1%

TN2.3%

KY1.0%

MS1.8%

AL2.9%

GA3.2%

SC3.3%

NC3.8%

VA2.7%

WV1.6%

PA2.0%

NY2.9%

ME1.7%

AK0.2%

HI2.4%

MA1.9%

VT1.3%

RI1.0%

CT1.2%

NJ1.4%

DE1.5%

MD2.7%

MI2.1%

DC2.2%

3.6%to3.9%2.0%to3.5%

4.0%ormore

0.0%to1.9%Decrease

Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis

IdahoHomeValuesSurpassPre-RecessionHighs

$95,000

$115,000

$135,000

$155,000

$175,000

$195,000

$215,000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

UnitedStates Idaho

U.S.Dec.2017$206,300

IdahoDec.2017$199,500

IdahoNov.2007$196,700

Source:ZillowResearch

12165

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Single-FamilyUnits Multifamily Total

Source:U.S.DepartmentofCommerceandU.S.CensusBureau

IdahoResidentialConstructionActivityClimbing


$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,5001995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Millions

SingleFamilyUnits MultiFamilyUnits Total

IdahoValueofNewResidentialConstructionIncreasing

Sources:IdahoDivisionofFinancialManagementandMoody’sEconomy.com e=estimatef=forecast

2.2

4.6

1.6

1.5

6.2

4.1

2.1

1.5

5.9

4.0

3.1

1.5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

HousingStarts

PersonalIncome

NonfarmEmployment

Population

2017 2018f 2019f

IdahoEconomicIndicators2017-2019

RobertSpendloveEconomicandPublicPolicyOfficer

Email:[email protected]:801-560-5394

ZionsBank,ADivisionofZB,N.A.MemberFDIC.

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zions bank economic overview...1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007...

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