zions bank economic overview · 2019-11-15 · zions bank economic overview utah institute of real...

ZionsBankEconomicOverviewUtahInstituteofRealEstateManagementEconomicSummit

• September12,2017

National Economic Conditions

AugustJobIndicators

Indicator Expectation ActualTotalNonfarmPayrolls 180,000 156,000UnemploymentRate 4.3% 4.4%PrivatePayrolls 180,000 165,000MonthlyAverageHourlyWageGrowth 0.2% 0.1%

YearlyAverageHourlyWageGrowth 2.5% 2.5%

LaborForceParticipation 62.9%

Sources:WallstreetJournalandBureauofLaborStatistics

156,000JobsAddedinAugust83rd ConsecutiveMonthofGrowthUnemploymentNear16YearLow

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

TotalNonfarmEmployment Unemployment

Thou

sand

sofEmployees Unem

ploymentRate

156,000JobsAddedinAugust

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

PayrollChangeinth

ousand

s 8.7MillionJobsLost

16.4 MillionJobsRecovered

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics

NationalEmploymentChangePercentChangeinNationalEmploymentbyIndustry:August2016toAugust2017

0.0% 1.5%

2.1% 2.1%

3.0% 1.8%

-2.4% 1.5%

1.1% 3.2%

8.8%

-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

GovernmentOtherServices

Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity

InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities

ManufacturingConstruction

Ntl.Res.&Mining

Total:1.4%


NationalEmploymentChangeTotalChangeinNumberofJobsbyIndustryinThousands:August2016toAugust2017

888

323476

602149

-67 108138

214

58

-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700





Ntl.Res.&Mining


WageGrowthStagnant

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2007– 2017Average2.4%

August20172.5%

Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

67%

68%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

LaborForceParticipationSeeingLittleChange

August:62.9%

56%

58%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics

LaborForceParticipationAmongLowestLevelinAlmost40Years

August201762.9%

Mar200067.3%

Apr197863.0%

UnemploymentandUnderemployment

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

U-6(Underemployed) U-3(Unemployment)


4.2%

7.1%

TheNumberofPart-timeWorkersforEconomicReasonsSpikedduringtheGreatRecession

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Thou

sand

sofEmployees

Long-TermUnemploymentroseslightlyinJuly

0

2

4

6

8

1980 1983 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Milli

ons

of P

erso

ns

Sources:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis,Numbersarerounded

July2017:1.8 m

Unemployed for more than 27 weeks

ProducerPriceIndexdeclining

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Year-to-YearChange


July1.9%

Laborproductivityhasdeclinedsincestronggrowthduringlate1990’sandearly2000’s

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Realoutputperhour

PercentC

hangefro

mQuarterOneYe

arAgo

Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis

GrowthinConsumerSpendingUnderPar

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

PersonalConsumptionExpenditureYearlyPercentChange


June1.4%

-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%

Feb-12

Jun-12

Oct-1

2

Feb-13

Jun-13

Oct-1

3

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-1

4

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-1

5

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-1

6

Feb-17

Jun-17

U.S.ConsumerPriceIndexYearlyChangeRate

InflationContinuestoUnderperform


July1.7%

CurrentLevelofConsumerConfidenceRemainsHigh

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Above110indicateseconomicprosperity

Source:TheConferenceBoard

RealGDPGrowth

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

2012

2012

2012

2012

2013

2013

2013

2013

2014

2014

2014

2014

2015

2015

2015

2015

2016

2016

2016

2016

2017

2017

PersonalConsumption FixedInvestment NetExportsInventories Government RealGDPGrowth


Q220173.0%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source:U.S.FederalReserve

FederalFundsTargetRateSees4thIncreaseinOveraDecade

FederalFundsTargetRate=1.25

FedRateIncreaseProjections

Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserve

1.4%

2.1%

3.0% 3.0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2017 2018 2019 LongRun

$0.00T

$0.50T

$1.00T

$1.50T

$2.00T

$2.50T

$3.00T

$3.50T

$4.00T

$4.50T

$5.00T

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Mortgage-Backed Securities U.S. Treasury Securities Federal Agency Debt Other

QE1 QE2 QE3Recession

ExplosionintheFederalReserve’sBalanceSheet

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

-1.0%

-0.50%

0.0%

0.50%

1.0%

1.50%

2.0%

2.50%

3.0%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis

YieldCurveShowingSignsofDistress10-yearminus2-yearspread

Regional Economic Conditions

Utah Accolades• No.1StateforBusiness(24/7WallStreet)• TopStateforEconomicOutlook(RichStates,PoorStates)• BestStateforEmployment(USNews)• OneoftheTopStatestoStartaBusiness(TheStreet.com)• UtahNamed2016StatewithBestEconomy(WalletHub)• SaltLakeCity(18),Ogden(7),andProvo(2)NamedAmongTop20

MetroAreastoStartaBusinessinU.S.(CNBC)• #1BestStateforBusiness(topstop5outofpast6years)(Forbes)• OneoftheBestPlacestoLive(USNews)• SaltLakeTopCityPoisedtobeTechMecca(Forbes)• Standard&Poor’s,Moody’sInvestorsService,andFitchRatings:

UtahOneofonly10StateswithAAABondRating

Source:Kem C.GardnerInstituteAnalysisofBEAdata

TenMostDiversifiedEconomiesintheCountry:Hachman Index2015

95.5 96.0 96.5 97.0 97.5 98.0 98.5

OhioPennsylvaniaTennessee

ArizonaCaliforniaMissouriIllinois

NorthCarolinaGeorgia

Utah

Note:AHachman Indexvalueof100meansthatthedistributionofemploymentamongindustriesisexactlythesameasthenation.Thecloserthevalueto100,themorediversethestate’seconomy.

UtahHastheMostDiverseEconomyintheNation

PercentChange:2015to2016U.S.Rate=0.7%

Loss

0.2%to0.6%

1.5%+

0.0%to0.1%

NM0.0%

UT2.0%

AZ1.7%

CA0.7%

NV2.0%

OR1.7%

TX1.6%

OK0.4%

CO1.7%

WA1.8%

ID1.8%

MT1.0%

WY-0.2%

ND0.1%

SD0.9%

MN0.7%

NE0.7%

KS0.3%

IA0.4%

MO0.3%

AR0.3%

LA0.3%

WI0.2%

IL-0.3%

IN0.3%

OH0.1%

FL1.8%

TN 0.9%

KY 0.3%

MS0.0%

AL0.2%

GA1.1%

SC1.4%

NC 1.1%

VA0.5%

WV-0.5%

PA-0.1%

NY0.0%

ME0.2%

AK0.6%

HI0.2%

MA0.4%

VT-0.2%

NH0.4%

RI0.1%

CT-0.2%

NJ0.1%

DE0.8%

MD0.4%

MI0.1%

DC1.6%

KS0.0%

UtahPopulationFastest GrowinginU.S.

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

0.7%to1.4%

-20000-10000 0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000

0300,000600,000900,000

1,200,0001,500,0001,800,0002,100,0002,400,0002,700,0003,000,0003,300,0003,600,000

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

NetMigration NaturalIncrease TotalPopulation

34,997

3,051,217

25,412

2017

f20

18f

Sources:U.S.CensusBureau;Datafrom2014onfromStateofUtahRevenueAssumptionsWorkingGroup

TotalPop

ulation

ComponentsofPopulationChange

e=estimate,f=forecast

UtahPopulationandComponentsofChange

UtahPopulationGrowthRatesByCounty

2015to2016StateAverage=2.0%

Box Elder2.2%

Cache2.2%

Rich1.0%

Weber 1.7%

Tooele3.1%

Salt Lake1.5%

Morgan3.1%

Summit2.1%

Daggett -1.4%

Utah3.0%

Wasatch4.7% Duchesne

-2.1% Uintah-3.7%

Juab4.2%

Sanpete2.1%

Carbon-0.2%

Emery-1.3% Grand

0.9%

Millard0.4%

Piute-2.5%

Garfield-0.1%

Sevier1.6%

Wayne0.0%

San Juan7.6%

Iron3.4%

Beaver1.9%

Washington3.1%

Kane3.0%

Davis 1.9%


1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

Source:U.S.CensusBureauandUniversityofUtahKem C.GardnerPolicyInstitute

Utah’sPopulationContinuestoGrow

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

1900-2060

UtahEmploymentGrowth5th Highest intheNation

NM0.2%

UT2.5%

AZ1.2%

CA1.7%

NV2.7%

OR2.9%

TX2.4%

OK1.1%

CO1.7%

WA2.2%

ID2.3%

MT1.1%

WY-1.1%

ND1.5%

SD0.4%

MN2.1%

NE1.2%

KS-0.8%

IA1.0%

MO2.0%

AR2.7%

WI0.9%

IL0.6%

IN0.9%

OH0.9%

FL2.7%

TN 1.7%

KY1.2%

MS0.5%

AL1.6%

GA2.2%

SC1.4%

NC 1.5%

VA1.5%

WV0.2%

PA1.0%

NY1.5%

ME1.0%

AK-0.3%

HI1.2%

MA1.3%

VT0.3%

NH1.8%

RI1.7%

CT0.7%

NJ1.2%

DE0.3%

MD1.9%

MI1.4%

DC2.4%

1.6%to1.9%

2.0%+

1.0%to1.5%

0.0%to0.9%

PercentChangeinEmploymentforStates:July2016toJuly2017U.S.Rate=1.5%

Loss

Note:SeasonallyAdjustedSource:BureauofLaborStatistics

LA0.6%

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,5001995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Thou

sand

sofEmployees

TotalNonfarmEmployment

Lossof92,000jobsfrom2007-2009

Gainof295,700jobsfromlowin

2009

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,TotalnonfarmseasonallyadjustedNote:Numbersroundedtonearestthousand

UtahTotalEmploymentatNewHighs

1.9% 4.4%

2.1% 2.9%

5.2% 2.1%

-4.8% 3.3%

2.5% 7.3%

-5.8%

-13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12%





Ntl.Res.&Mining

PercentChangeinUtahEmploymentbyIndustry:July2016toJuly2017

Total:2.9%

UtahIndustriesSeeingGrowth

Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices

4,3001,800

3,0005,300

10,7001,700

-1,800 6,800

3,1006,900

-500

-3,000 -1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000





Ntl.Res.&Mining

Total:49,300

UtahIndustriesSeeingGrowthTotalChangeinUtahEmploymentbyIndustry:July2016toJuly2017


UtahEmploymentChangeRatesByCountyJuly2016toJuly2017

StateRate=2.9%

Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices;Notseasonallyadjusted

1.0%to3.2%

0.0%to0.9%

5.0%+

3.3%to4.9%

Loss

Box Elder 3.2% Cache2.4% Rich

-2.6%Weber 1.9%

Tooele1.3%

Salt Lake2.6%

Morgan5.2%

Daggett -4.5%

Utah5.7%


3.2% Uintah0.0%

Juab1.0%

Sanpete2.0%

Carbon-2.3%

Emery-4.3% Grand

2.5%

Millard2.0%

Piute7.1%

Garfield1.6%

Sevier2.7%

Wayne1.7%

San Juan1.5%

Iron4.8%

Beaver2.3%

Washington5.4%

Kane3.6%

Da1is 4.0%

Summit2.9%

UtahUnemployment15th LowestintheNationJuly2017U.S.Rate=4.3%

HI2.7%

NH2.8%

NM6.3%

UT3.5%

AZ5.1%

CA4.8%

NV4.8%

OR3.8%

TX4.3%

OK4.4%

CO2.4%

WA4.5%

ID3.0%

MT3.9%

WY4.0%

ND2.2%

SD3.1%

MN3.7%

NE2.8%

KS3.7%

IA3.2%

MO3.8%

AR3.4%

LA5.3%

WI3.2%

IL4.8%

IN3.1%

OH5.2%

FL4.1%

TN 3.4%

KY5.3%

MS5.2%

AL4.5%

GA4.8%

SC3.9%

NC 4.1%

VA3.8%

WV4.8%

PA5.0%

NY4.8%

ME3.7%

AK7.0%

MA4.3%

VT3.1%

RI4.3%

CT5.0%

NJ4.2%

DE4.8%

MD4.1%

MI3.7%

DC6.4%


6.0%+

5.5%to5.9%

4.8%to5.4%

4.0%to4.7%

3.9%orless

Sources:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

U.S. Utah

UTUnemploymentRatesConsistentlyLowerthantheNation

JulyUS:4.3%

JulyUT:3.5%

UtahUnemployment

RatesByCounty

July2017

StateRate=3.5%


4.0%to5.9%

6.0%to6.9%

3.1%orlower

3.2%to3.9%

7.0%+

B4x Elder3.5%

Cache2.8%

Rich3.4%

Tooele3.8%

Morgan3.1%

Summit3.1%

Utah3.0%


5.8% Uintah6.3%

Juab3.5%

Sanpete4.1%

Carbon5.3%

Emery5.7% Grand

5.4%

Millard3.6%

Piute5.5%

Garfield7.7%

Sevier4.1%

Wayne8.0%

San Juan7.2%

Iron4.3%

Beaver4.0

Washington3.5%

Kane3.5%

Daggett 5.6%Davis3.2%

Salt Lake3.2%

Weber 3.8%


PercentChangeinPersonalIncome:2016Q1–2017Q1U.S.=3.7%;UT=4.9%ID= 4.9% NH

3.1%

NM2.2%

UT4.9%

AZ3.8%

CA4.8%

NV4.8%

OR3.8%

TX3.2%

OK1.2%

CO4.4%

WA4.9%

ID4.9%

MT3.7%

WY-0.5%

ND1.0%

SD2.5%

MN3.6%

NE1.2%

KS2.5%

IA1.9%

MO3.5%

AR3.1%

LA3.0%

WI3.1%

IL2.2%

IN4.0%

OH3.6%

FL4.6%

TN 4.4%

3.82.6%

MS2.4%

AL3.2%

GA3.8%

SC4.6%

NC 4.4%

VA4.4%

WV1.9%

PA3.9 %

NY3.0%

ME2.9%

AK1.6%

HI3.0%

MA3.8%

VT1.6%

RI3.0%

CT2.5%

NJ3.5%

DE3.6%

MD4.9%

MI4.4%

DC4.4%

3.6%to3.9%2.0%to3.5%

4.0%ormore

0.0%to1.9%Decrease

UtahandIdahoTiedforHighest PersonalIncomeGrowthintheCountry

2015U.S.Rate=13.5%,2015UtahRate=9.3%


NM19.7%

UT9.3%

AZ17.2%

CA13.9%

NV13.0%

OR11.9%

TX14.7%

OK14.2%

CO9.9%

WA11.4%

ID12.3%

MT11.9%

WY9.8%

ND10.7%

SD13.9%

MN7.8%

NE10.3%

KS14.2%

IA10.4%

MO9.8%

AR16.1%

LA18.6%

WI11.4%

IL10.9%

IN13.5%

OH13.6%

FL16.2%

TN 14.7%

KY19.5%

MS19.1%

AL16.3%

GA18.1%

SC14.3%

NC 15.3%

VA10.9%

WV14.5%

PA12.3%

NY14.2%

ME12.3%

AK9.2%

HI10.9%

MA11.5%

VT10.7%

NH7.3%

RI11.8%

CT9.1%

NJ11.2%

DE11.1%

MD9.6%

MI12.8%

DC16.6%

10.1% to 11.0%11.1% to 13.5% (at or below the U.S. rate)

10.0% or less

13.6% to 16.0%

16.1% or more

UtahPovertyRate5th LowestintheNation

ConsumerSentimentontheRise

5060708090100110120130

May-12

Aug-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

May-13

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

U.S.ConsumerConfidenceIndex:122.9ZionsBankUtahConsumerAttitudeIndex:115

Above110indicateseconomicprosperity

Sources:ConferenceBoardandCiceroGroup

Source:U.S.CPIfromNationalBureauofLaborStatisticsandWasatchFrontCPIfromCiceroGroup

-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

UnitedStatesCPI:+1.7%

ZionsBankWasatchFrontCPI:+3.4%

ConsumerPriceIndexYearlyGrowthUnitedStatesvs.WasatchFront

Sources:StateofUtahRevenueAssumptionsWorkingGroup,Moody’sEconomy.com,IHSGlobalInsights

e=estimatef=forecast

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

RetailSales

HomePrices

PersonalIncome

UnemploymentRate

NonfarmEmployment

Population

2015 2016e 2017f 2018f

UtahEconomicIndicators2015-2018f

• Nationalandinternationaluncertainty• Depressedbusinessinvestment• Unstableinflationoutlook• Skillsmismatch• Lowproductivitygrowth• OverregulationfromWashington

EconomicNegativesEconomicPositives

• Strongconsumerandbusinessconfidence

• Housinggrowth• StrongpopulationgrowthintheIntermountainWest

• Utahhasadiversifiedeconomy• Utahjobgrowthbestinthecountry• Utahinflationisstrong

RobertSpendloveEconomicandPublicPolicyOfficer

Email:[email protected]:801-560-5394

ZionsBank,ADivisionofZB,N.A.MemberFDIC.

Contentisofferedforinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconstruedastax,legal,financialorbusinessadvice.Pleasecontactaprofessionalaboutyourspecificneedsandadvice.Contentmaycontaintrademarksortradenamesownedbypartieswhoarenot affiliated

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zions bank economic overview · 2019-11-15 · zions bank economic overview utah institute of real...

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