Geomagnetic forecasts

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A.A. Petrukovich Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences

Earth as space ecosystemLife depends on Space:Earth climate driven by constant solar energy

Life depends on Space:Earth climate driven by constant solar energySolar system climate: solar activity, solar evolution, orbit interactionsEarth as space ecosystem

Galaxy climate: local interstellar medium and galactic cosmic rays Life depends on Space:Earth climate driven by constant solar energySolar system climate: solar activity, solar evolution, orbit interactionsEarth as space ecosystem

: . 8 1-12 ( ) 1-3

: : ~0.1%

1. :, ,

2. :

: 30 000 50 000

: : ~10 ~100 : ~ 100 ~1000

0-23-45-67-9, 0 - 9 12-3239-94111-400

Dst AL/AU/AE

-: = 8-9 : =5-6

10

: ,

27, 45, 55 : 1 2

27 3-4

27- 2003 27

3-7 , STEREO ,

1 - 3 1.5 4 :

50%

1-3 = 6

1-7

1-3 , Belov et al 2005

ACE - available in INTERNET

1 hour forecast >90% reliabilitySolar light: 300 000 km/s: 8 min 3-day forecast 50% reliabilitySolar stormSolar wind: 400-1000 km/s: 1.5-3 days Geomagnetic stormLibration point 1.5 mln km150 mln km- ( ) ,

o Dungeyp VBz

www.spaceweather .ru

www.spaceweather .ru

( ) () 1-2

() ,

()

* -

-

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