© oecd/iea, 2008 energy balance vs. energy efficiency indicators michel francoeur head of section...
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© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Energy Balance Energy Balance vs.vs.
Energy Efficiency IndicatorsEnergy Efficiency Indicators
Michel FrancoeurMichel FrancoeurHead of SectionHead of Section
Energy Statistics DivisionEnergy Statistics DivisionInternational Energy AgencyInternational Energy Agency
ESDS International Annual Conference 2008ESDS International Annual Conference 2008
The Changing World
London, 1 December 2008London, 1 December 2008
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
OverviewOverview
ObjectivesObjectives
Monitoring the Energy MarketMonitoring the Energy Market
Relevance of an Energy BalanceRelevance of an Energy Balance
Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?
Energy IndicatorsEnergy Indicators
ConclusionConclusion
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
ObjectivesObjectives
Highlight the importance of :Highlight the importance of : sound energy statistics and energy balances sound energy statistics and energy balances
as a foundation to understanding the energy as a foundation to understanding the energy market, market,
andand the benefits of going beyond the energy the benefits of going beyond the energy
balance for energy indicators. balance for energy indicators.
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Monitoring of the Energy MarketMonitoring of the Energy Market“An Evolving Challenge”“An Evolving Challenge”
Production Imports/Exports
Stocks
Data
PriceDependency
Security
Oil prices at $30/bl
Data
Diversity(gas, coal, electricity)
ConsumptionTransformation
Socio- economic
Data
Emissions
Efficiency
Rio Summit
Kyoto Protocol
Oil prices“?”
Establishment of the IEA
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
SecondarySecondary
CombustibleCombustible
RenewablesRenewables
Nu
clea
rH
eat
and
Non
-T
her
mal
Ele
ctri
city
Hea
t an
d E
lect
rici
ty
PrimaryPrimary
Wastes
CoalsCrude Oil
NGL’sNatural Gas
Oil Shale
Biofuels
Petroleum Products, Manufactured Solid Fuels
Liquids and Gases
Any Fuels Derived fromRenewable Sources
NonNonRenewablesRenewables
Monitoring of the Energy MarketMonitoring of the Energy Market“Basket of Energy Commodities”“Basket of Energy Commodities”
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Monitoring of the Energy MarketMonitoring of the Energy Market“From Energy Supply to Consumption”“From Energy Supply to Consumption”
TransformationTransformation Secondary Commodities
Secondary Commodities
Primary Commodities
Primary Commodities
Final Energy Use/consumptionFinal Energy Use/consumption
Imports Exports
Stock Changes
Imports Exports
Stock Changes
Indigenous Production
Indigenous Production
Imports Exports
Stock Changes
Imports Exports
Stock Changes
Primary Commodities
Primary Commodities
Indigenous Production
Indigenous Production
Driven by demandfor energy services
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Monitoring of the Energy Market Monitoring of the Energy Market Is this the kind of energy map policy makers want?Is this the kind of energy map policy makers want?
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Monitoring of the Energy Market Monitoring of the Energy Market The energy balance provides for better maps, The energy balance provides for better maps,
which in turn will provide…
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Relevance of an Energy BalanceRelevance of an Energy Balance
““A Foundation to Policy”A Foundation to Policy”
The lack of essential data can lead the policy making The lack of essential data can lead the policy making process towards the wrong energy policy choicesprocess towards the wrong energy policy choices
A sound monitoring and reporting framework of the A sound monitoring and reporting framework of the energy market:energy market: Provides the Provides the foundation for policy and market analysis; foundation for policy and market analysis; which in turn can better inform the policy decision process;which in turn can better inform the policy decision process; therefore help policy makers:therefore help policy makers:
select policy instruments best suited to meet domestic and select policy instruments best suited to meet domestic and international policy objectives;international policy objectives; and decide on required adjustments to existing policies.and decide on required adjustments to existing policies.
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Relevance of an Energy BalanceRelevance of an Energy Balance
There is a “There is a “SupplySupply” & “” & “DemandDemand” side to the energy equation;” side to the energy equation; For long, and for many people, monitoring the energy market For long, and for many people, monitoring the energy market
was a supply issue; was a supply issue; Monitoring of demand was often limited to an aggregate energy Monitoring of demand was often limited to an aggregate energy
intensity (e.g. Energy / Total GDP);intensity (e.g. Energy / Total GDP); A better understanding of demand is an essential element to A better understanding of demand is an essential element to
defining solutions to key energy related issues:defining solutions to key energy related issues: Energy security, Energy security, Economic and technological development opportunities, Economic and technological development opportunities, Sustainable development,Sustainable development, Mitigating environmental impact…Mitigating environmental impact…
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Relevance of an Energy BalanceRelevance of an Energy Balance
In Summary the Energy Balance:In Summary the Energy Balance: Provides an energy supply & demand statistical equilibrium; Provides an energy supply & demand statistical equilibrium;
““accounting” framework to validate energy flows from supply to accounting” framework to validate energy flows from supply to consumption by economic sectors, consumption by economic sectors,
Provides for the reconciliation of supply/disposition vs. Provides for the reconciliation of supply/disposition vs. consumption data,consumption data,
Defines energy flows within boundaries of economic sectors;Defines energy flows within boundaries of economic sectors;
Starting point toward a better understanding of demand for Starting point toward a better understanding of demand for energy driven services in the deferent economic sectors and energy driven services in the deferent economic sectors and how they are delivered.how they are delivered.
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
ProductionProductionImport Import ExportExport
International Marine BunkersInternational Marine Bunkers Stock ChangesStock Changes Domestic SupplyDomestic Supply
TransfersTransfers Statistical DifferencesStatistical Differences
Transformation Sector Transformation Sector (18 sub-sectors)(18 sub-sectors) Energy Sector Energy Sector (16 sub-sectors)(16 sub-sectors)
Distribution LossesDistribution Losses
Final ConsumptionFinal ConsumptionIndustry Sector Industry Sector (13 sub-sectors)(13 sub-sectors)Transport Transport (7 sub-sectors)(7 sub-sectors)Other Sectors Other Sectors (4 sub-sectors)(4 sub-sectors)Non Energy UsesNon Energy Uses
Electricity and Heat Outputs Electricity and Heat Outputs TOTAL: 95 FLOWSTOTAL: 95 FLOWS
Relevance of an Energy BalanceRelevance of an Energy Balance““Questionnaires: Flows Collected”Questionnaires: Flows Collected”
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Coal (17 products/categories)Coal (17 products/categories)Natural gas Natural gas Crude Oil and Petroleum products (25 products)Crude Oil and Petroleum products (25 products)Nuclear EnergyNuclear EnergyHydro EnergyHydro EnergyRenewable Energy (19 products/categories)Renewable Energy (19 products/categories)Waste Energy (3 products/categories)Waste Energy (3 products/categories)ElectricityElectricityHeat (7 categories)Heat (7 categories)
TOTAL: over 75 products/categoriesTOTAL: over 75 products/categories
Relevance of an Energy BalanceRelevance of an Energy Balance““Questionnaires: Products Collected”Questionnaires: Products Collected”
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Latin America(22 countries)
Africa(27 countries)
Former Soviet Union (15 countries)
Middle East (13 countries)
OECD (30 countries)
Non OECD Europe(12countries)
Asia(22 countries)
Data are collected, processed and published for over 140 countries
Data are collected, processed and published for over 140 countries
Relevance of an Energy BalanceRelevance of an Energy Balance “ “Done via a Network of Focal Points”Done via a Network of Focal Points”
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
FAOUN EUROSTAT
WORLD BANK
OPEC
OAPEC
AFREPREN
Relevance of an Energy BalanceRelevance of an Energy Balance “ “Network of Focal Points”Network of Focal Points”
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Online Databases& CD’s
AnnualBooks
Relevance of an Energy BalanceRelevance of an Energy Balance
Quarterly data
&Monthly data services
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?
““An Even Stronger Foundation to Policy”An Even Stronger Foundation to Policy”
Detailed energy indicators provide for Detailed energy indicators provide for more targeted policy and market analysis more targeted policy and market analysis to support policy objectivesto support policy objectives
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Indicators defined at the level of an energy balance tend to Indicators defined at the level of an energy balance tend to be aggregate be aggregate Energy self sufficiencyEnergy self sufficiency Energy mix / relianceEnergy mix / reliance Energy intensity per GDPEnergy intensity per GDP Energy intensity per Capita…Energy intensity per Capita…
While today’s policy objectives often try to influence the While today’s policy objectives often try to influence the delivery and consumption of energy services delivery and consumption of energy services
Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
19
73
= 1
00
%
Total Energy
Basic energy statisticsBasic energy statistics
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
19
73
= 1
00
%
Total Energy
Total Energy, CC
Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1973
= 1
00%
Total Energy
Total Energy, CC
Total/Capita
Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1973
= 1
00%
Total Energy
Total Energy, CC
Total/Capita
Total/household
Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1973
= 1
00%
Total Energy
Total Energy, CC
Total/Capita
Total/household
Total/Sq. m
Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1973
= 1
00%
Total Energy
Total Energy, CC
Total/Capita
Total/household
Total/Sq. m
Space heat/Sq. m
Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1973
= 1
00%
Total EnergyTotal Energy, CCTotal/CapitaTotal/householdTotal/Sq. mSpace heat/Sq. mUseful space heat/sq. m
Detailed indicatorsDetailed indicators
Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?Why Go Beyond the Energy Balance?
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
19
73
= 1
00
%
Now you know whyNow you
know why
Total EnergySpace heat/Sq. mTotal EnergySpace heat/Sq. m
MacroMacro
MicroMicro
Energy IndicatorsEnergy Indicators
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Building an end-use mapping of energy and activityBuilding an end-use mapping of energy and activity
Household Energy = space heating + space cooling + cooking + water heating + lighting + appliances…
Space heating = function (floor space, temperature, dwelling types, vintages, fuel mix, heating systems, cross-effect with other end-uses… )
Floor space = function (number of dwellings, average floor area by dwelling type…)
For example:
As you can see, it is all about data…
Energy IndicatorsEnergy Indicators
Energy consumption = Household + Industries + Comm. & Public Services + + Transportation + Agriculture …
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Energy IndicatorsEnergy Indicators “Drilling Down into the Details”“Drilling Down into the Details”
IEA / Eurostat /APEC Statistics
Aggregated indicators
Disaggregated indicators
Current Indicator data
Process efficiency etc
Some scattered national data
En
d-u
se
s <
==
==
= E
ne
rgy
ba
lan
ce
s
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Energy IndicatorsEnergy Indicators ““Initial Data Coverage of IEA’s Indicators” Initial Data Coverage of IEA’s Indicators”
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Overview of the initial templateOverview of the initial template
Menu drivenMenu driven
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Diffusion, stocks and average consumption of Diffusion, stocks and average consumption of selected appliancesselected appliances
RESIDENTIAL
%
106
kWh
/un
it
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
End-use consumption by fuelEnd-use consumption by fuel
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Interactive GraphsInteractive Graphs
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
CurrentMarket
Technico-EconomicPotential
Technological Potential
Increase the uptakeSeek to provide a favourablemarket environment
Provide economic viability Push further away the technological frontier
Energy Indicators provides key information to :
Past and CurrentMarketSituation
Monitoring Market Performance
Setting Expectation
Long TermFuture Perspective
Set the starting point and help define optimum
policy measures
Short… Medium… Long term Objectives
Assess market performance vis-à-vis policy measures
Assess medium and long term potential scenarios
Qualit
ati
ve p
ers
pect
ive
(Polic
y)
Quanti
tati
ve p
ers
pect
ive
(Data
)
“Energy Use in the New Millennium” “Worldwide Trends in Energy Use and Efficiency” “Tracking Industrial Energy Efficiency”
“Energy Technology Perspectives”
Energy Indicators Energy Indicators
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
Maintain Maintain sound energy statistics and energy balances sound energy statistics and energy balances as the foundationas the foundation to energy market analysis. to energy market analysis.
Developed an energy indicators data template for the Developed an energy indicators data template for the better harmonization of the data and analysis,better harmonization of the data and analysis,
Workshops to develop, with Members and partner Workshops to develop, with Members and partner countries, the data, the analysis and the policy countries, the data, the analysis and the policy aspects of energy indicators, aspects of energy indicators,
Working in partnership with other organizations Working in partnership with other organizations e.g.: Eurostat, EC, APEC… e.g.: Eurostat, EC, APEC…
Energy IndicatorsEnergy Indicators IEA’s Energy Indicators workIEA’s Energy Indicators work
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
ConclusionConclusion An energy balance is a dynamic tool which provides An energy balance is a dynamic tool which provides
the starting to a better understanding of the energy the starting to a better understanding of the energy market and the identification of its opportunities market and the identification of its opportunities toward policy objectives.toward policy objectives.
A solid energy balance is highly beneficial to the A solid energy balance is highly beneficial to the development of energy indicators.development of energy indicators.
Energy indicators provide for a stronger foundation Energy indicators provide for a stronger foundation to market and/or policy analysis and objectives.to market and/or policy analysis and objectives.
© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008
““To measure is to know”To measure is to know”andand
““If you cannot measure If you cannot measure it,it, you you cannot improve it.”cannot improve it.”
Lord KelvinLord Kelvin
ConclusionConclusion