© oecd/iea 2012 energy technology perspectives for a clean energy future ms. maria van der hoeven...
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© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy Technology Perspectives for a Clean Energy Future
Ms. Maria van der HoevenExecutive DirectorInternational Energy AgencyMadrid, 20 September 2012
Key messages
1. A sustainable energy future is still feasible and technologies exist that can take us there
2. Despite the potential of technologies, progress is too slow at the moment
3. A clean energy future requires systemic thinking and deployment of a variety of technologies
4. It even makes financial sense to do it!5. Government policy is decisive in unlocking the
potential
Energy demand and emissions have doubled in the past 40 years
From 6000 Mtoe to 12 000 Mtoe Rapid demand growth outside OECD
Source: IEA statistics
CO2 emissions from 14Gt to 30Gt Since 2005, non-OECD countries
emit more than OECD
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
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6DSwhere the world is now heading, with potentially devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
4DSreflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
2DSa vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced CO2 and other Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions
The 2°C Scenario
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ETP-2012: need to halve CO2 by 2050
To achieve ambitious climate goals, the world needs to cut energy-related CO2 emissions by 50% from today’s levels…
…but as populations grow and energy consumption inevitably rises, the reduction challenge is even higher: a gap of 24-42 Gt in 2050
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
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Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas
Significant action is required to get back on track
Energy RD&D has slipped in priority
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
5
10
15
20
25
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Shar
e of
ene
rgy
RD&
D in
tota
l R&
D
USD
bill
ion
Energy efficiency Fossil fuels
Renewable energy Nuclear
Hydrogen and fuel cells Other power and storage technologies
Other cross cutting technologies/research Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
0
1
2
3
4
Braz
il
Chin
a
Indi
a
Mex
ico
Russ
ia
Sout
h A
fric
a
USD
bill
ion
2008 non-IEA country spending
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A smart, sustainable energy system
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A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system
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Renewables need to dominate EU electricity
Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix.
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
4DS 2DS
2009 2050
TWh
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
53%
27%
2%
1%
7%
28%
22%
23%
10%
9%
13%
7%
10%
4%
21%
28%
4%13% 17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
4DS 2DS
2009 2050
Gen
erati
on s
hare
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Solar
Hydro
Fossil w/o CCS
Fossil w CCS
2009 2050
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Renewables: mid-term forecast for Spain
Drivers: Abundant renewable
resources Strong grid and
advanced integration of variable renewable sources
Challenges: Overcapacity of
electricity system Need to correct for
persistently high tariff deficit
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Spain power capacity vs peak load (GW)
Nuclear Hydropower
Combustible fuels Solar
Wind Peak load
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Spain forecast renewable generation
Hydropower Wind onshore Solar PV
Bioenergy CSP Wind offshore
TWh
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0
2 500
5 000
7 500
10 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
4DS
OECD Non-OECD
0
2 500
5 000
7 500
10 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
2DS
Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the 2DS and the 4DS.
From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.
Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.
2DS4DS
Natural gas as a transitional fuel
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Electric vehicles need to come of age
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More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050
Glo
bal p
asse
nger
LD
V s
ales
(m
illio
n)
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Industry must become more efficient
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Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies.
GtC
O2
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- 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
10%
Undiscounted
Fuel savings
Additionalinvestment
Tota
l sav
ings
USD trillion
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Fuel savings
Additional investment
Investment in clean energy pays off
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Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate three dollars in return.
USD trillion
Recommendations to Governments
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1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden fuel” of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)
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