1 9a. us agricultural trade role & background larry d. sanders fall 2005 dept. of ag economics...
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9a.US AGRICULTURAL TRADE ROLE
& BACKGROUND
Larry D. Sanders
Fall 2005
Dept. of Ag Economics Oklahoma State University
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BASIC PROPOSITIONS OF TRADE
1. SCARCITY--Trade based on relative scarcity of factors of production
2. PRICES--Relative scarcities lead to different relative prices within countries if no trade (autarky)
3. PROFIT--Different relative prices lead to opportunities for profit with trade
4. SPECIALIZATION--Flow of trade leads to longrun adjustment within domestic economies, leading to increases in export specialization
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BASIC PROPOSITIONS (cont.)
5. PROFIT--Specialization leads to increased profit
6. INCOME--Fundamental Proposition:
Increasing trade leads to increased income
7. ECONOMIC GROWTH--Increased income provides additional capital for domestic investment
8. STANDARD OF LIVING--Increased domestic investment leads to more economic growth, & thus, higher standard of living
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AG EXPORT BOOM OF THE 1970s US AGRICULTURAL TRADE BALANCE ($mil/FY; ag
product only)
EXPORTS INCREASE
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
$million
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AG EXPORT BOOM OF THE 1970s: SOURCES
HIGH OIL PRICES & FOREIGN ECONOMIC GROWTH
EASY CREDIT SOVIET UNION IMPORTS CROP SHORTAGES U.S. DOMINANCE WEAK U.S. $
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AG EXPORT BOOM OF THE 1970s: CONSEQUENCES
INCREASED FARM INCOME HIGHER COMMODITY & FARM LAND
PRICES NEW INVESTMENT & INCREASED
PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURAL TRADE SURPLUS
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AG EXPORT BUST OF THE 1980s US AGRICULTURAL TRADE BALANCE ($mil/FY; ag
product only)
EXPORTS GENERALLY DECLINE
05000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90
$million
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AG EXPORT BUST OF THE 1980s: CAUSES
STRONG $ WEAK WORLD ECONOMY WORLD DEBT PROBLEMS EXPORT COMPETITION TRADE BARRIERS
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AG EXPORT BUST OF THE 1980s: CONSEQUENCES
GLOBAL RECESSION & LOWER OIL PRICES
DECLINING MARKET GROWTH PROTECTIONISM STRONG U.S. $ & ROLE OF FARM
PROGRAMS EMERGENCE OF EC AS MAJOR
EXPORTER REDUCED FARM INCOME
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AG EXPORT BUST OF THE 1980s: CONSEQUENCES: (cont.)
U.S. GRAIN SURPLUS LOWER COMMODITY PRICES REDUCED FARM LAND VALUES FARM FINANCIAL STRESS
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AG EXPORT BOOM OF THE 1990sUS AGRICULTURAL TRADE BALANCE ($mil/FY;
ag product only)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0
EXPORTS
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AG EXPORT RECOVERY OF THE 1990s
MULTILATERAL AGREEMENTS DOMESTIC INTERVENTION ECONOMIC GROWTH SELF-SUFFICIENCY UNCERTAINTY MATURING DEVELOPED MARKETS DEVELOPING & NEWLY EMERGING
MARKETS POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY
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Value-Added Exports
More Employment/Income than bulk commodities
Job/Economic Activity Retention Economic Growth Contribution Greater
than Non-Ag Sectors 1960-1990: 9X increase US share less than 10% Half of US ag exports are value-added Trend increasing
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AG EXPORT BOOM-BUST CYCLE? US AGRICULTURAL TRADE BALANCE ($mil/FY; ag
product only; 5-yr data)
EXPORTS INCREASE--cyclically
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
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SUMMARY Export boom-bust cycle
– Exists over past 30+ years– Export trend remains up
More market-oriented Competitiveness important Protective response Trade future uncertain
– Trade agreements seem to moderate cycle– Trade talks uncertain
Lessons for agricultural producers, agribusiness & rural communities
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READING/SOURCES
Ahearn, R.J. “An Overview of the International Trading Environment”, Managing Trade Relations in the 1980s. Rubin & Graham, eds. Allanheld Pub., 1983.
Drabenstott, M. et al. “The Latin American Debt Problem & U.S. Agriculture”, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, July/Aug 1988.
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READING/SOURCES (cont.) Henneberry, D. et al. “A Weaker Dollar & U.S. Farm Exports:
Coming Rebound or Empty Promise?”, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, May 1987.
Jackson, J.H. The World Trading System. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1989.
Rosson, P. International Marketing for Agribusiness: Concepts & Applications. GEMS, TAMU Press, 1994.
Southern Extension International Trade Task Force. Southern Agriculture in a World Economy. Department of Agricultural Economics, Oklahoma State University.
USDA, FATUS Series (annual data).