1 lincolnshire research observatory lincolnshire’s changing population components of change and...

1

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk

Lincolnshire’s Changing Population


Components of Change and the Demographic Impact

Eleanor SpillaneSenior Projects Officer

2



This presentation will:• Highlight the datasets that can be used to

estimate population

• Describe the underlying factors driving population change

• Consider the impact on county demographics

• Introduce the population projections

3



Datasets

International

Passengers

International

Passengers

Long Term

Migrants

Long Term

Migrants

Worker Registration

s

Worker Registration

s

Census populatio

n

Census populatio

nNINo

allocations

NINo allocation

s

Resident population

Resident population

Destination of

graduates

Destination of

graduates

Flag 4 Registration

s

Flag 4 Registration

s

Births and

deaths

Births and

deaths

Populationprojection

s


s

NHSpatient

lists

NHSpatient

lists

SchoolCensus

SchoolCensus

Population

estimates

Population

estimates

4



0

300,000

600,000

900,000

1871

1891

1911

1931

1951

1971

1991

2011

2031

1871-1971

Approx. 150,000 people

1,500 per year

1971-2001

Almost 150,000

Almost 5,000 per year

Population Growth in Lincolnshire2010

703,000

Peo

ple

5



Population Growth

Index 100

300,000

600,000

900,000

1871

1891

1911

1931

1951

1971

1991

2011

2031

Lincs

England

6



Population Growth in Lincolnshire

02468

10121416

Engla

nd

Linco

lnsh

ire

Bosto

n

East L

indse

y

Linco

ln

North

Kes

teve

n

South

Holl

and

South

Kes

teve

n

Wes

t Lin

dsey

1990s

2000s

%

7



Population Change since 2001

Population Growth since 2001

50%+25%+0%+-5%+

-11%+

Wyberton10%

400 people

Market Deeping6.5%

400 people

Quarrington55%

1,500 people

Witham St Hughs76%

2,000 people

8



Components of Change

Released as part of the ONS Population Estimates

Taken from the civil registration system

Applied to authority of residence

Births and

deaths

Births and

deaths

9



Natural Change

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Births per 1,000

Dea

ths

per

1,00

0

Lincolnshire

East Lindsey

Boston

LincolnSouth Kesteven

West LindseyNK

SH

10



Births and deaths

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Births DeathsP

eopl

e

11



Births and Deaths

610620630640650660670680690700710

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

‘000

peo

ple

Migration

Births and deaths

Population estimates

12




Births and

deaths

Births and

deaths

Internal MigrationInternal

Migration

National Health Service Central Register

(NHSCR)

Transferring patient notifications

13



Internal Migration

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2005 2007 2009

In

14



Internal Migration

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2005 2007 2009

In

Out

15



Internal Migration

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2005 2007 2009

In9,400

Recession

Low house prices

Out

16



Internal Migration to Lincolnshire2006 - 2010

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0-15 16-24 25-44 45-64 65+

InflowOutflowBalance

‘000

peo

ple

17



Components of ChangeBirths and

deaths

Births and

deathsInternal

MigrationInternal

MigrationInternational Migration

International Migration

18



Datasets

International

Passengers

International

Passengers

Long Term

Migrants

Long Term

Migrants

Worker Registration

s

Worker Registration

s

Census populatio

n

Census populatio

nNINo

allocations

NINo allocation

s

Resident population

Resident population

Destination of

graduates

Destination of

graduates

Flag 4 Registration

s

Flag 4 Registration

s

Births and

deaths

Births and

deaths


s


s

NHSpatient

lists

NHSpatient

lists

SchoolCensus

SchoolCensus

Population

estimates

Population

estimates

19



International Migration 2010

179,000 EU

322,000rest of

world591,000

339,00099,000

104,000

136,000

EU

rest of

world

Britain

+252,000

Britain90,000

20



Datasets

International

Passengers

International

Passengers

Long Term

Migrants

Long Term

Migrants

Worker Registration

s

Worker Registration

s

Census populatio

n

Census populatio

nNINo

allocations

NINo allocation

s

Flag 4 Registration

s

Flag 4 Registration

s

SchoolCensus

SchoolCensus

Population

estimates

Population

estimatesResident

population

Resident population

21



National Insurance Number Registrations (NINo)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2002

/03

2003

/04

2004

/05

2005

/06

2006

/07

2007

/08

2008

/09

2009

/10

2010

/11

Lithuania

Latvia

Poland

Hungary

Portugal

SouthAfrica

Reg

istr

atio

ns

22



NINOs by DistrictLast 5 Years

BostonEast LindseyLincolnNorth KestevenSouth HollandSouth KestevenWest Lindsey

32,920 registrations in the county since 2006/07

34%

8%16%6%

22%

12%

3%

23



Datasets

International

Passengers

International

Passengers

Long Term

Migrants

Long Term

Migrants

Worker Registration

s

Worker Registration

s

Census populatio

n

Census populatio

nNINo

allocations

NINo allocation

s

Flag 4 Registration

s

Flag 4 Registration

s

SchoolCensus

SchoolCensus

Population

estimates

Population

estimatesResident

population

Resident population

24



Flag 4 GP Registrations

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

2001

/01

2001

/02

2002

/03

2003

/04

2004

/05

2005

/06

2006

/07

2007

/08

2008

/09

2009

/10

2010

/11

Flag 4

NINo

Reg

istr

atio

ns

25



English as an Additional Language

Over 100,000 pupils

Nearly 5,000 have English as an additional language

Boston

East Lindsey

Lincoln

North Kesteven

South Holland

South Kesteven

West Lindsey

30%

21%7%

5%

18%

15%

3%

26



Datasets

International

Passengers

International

Passengers

Long Term

Migrants

Long Term

Migrants

Worker Registration

s

Worker Registration

s

Census populatio

n

Census populatio

nNINo

allocations

NINo allocation

s

Flag 4 Registration

s

Flag 4 Registration

s

SchoolCensus

SchoolCensus

Population

estimates

Population

estimatesResident

population

Resident population

27



Resident population

690,000

UK Non-UK

EUNon-EU

646,000 45,000

29,00016,000

28



Key Points• Population growth driven by migration

• Increasing birth rate in recent years

• In-migration rising again after 2 years of decline

• Major source of international migrants changed from Portugal to Lithuania

http://shared.research-lincs.org.uk

29




• Births and deaths

• Internal Migration

• International Migration =

30



Change by Age Group

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

0-4

5-9

10-14

31



Change by Age Group

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

15-19

20-24University opens

32



Change by Age Group

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

25-29

30-34

55-59

60-64Peak of internal migration

33



Change by Age Group

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

34



Age Profile

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

0-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

485

+

1981

2010

35



Datasets

International

Passengers

International

Passengers

Long Term

Migrants

Long Term

Migrants

Worker Registration

s

Worker Registration

s

Census populatio

n

Census populatio

nNINo

allocations

NINo allocation

s

Resident population

Resident population

Destination of

graduates

Destination of

graduates

Flag 4 Registration

s

Flag 4 Registration

s

Births and

deaths

Births and

deaths


s


s

NHSpatient

lists

NHSpatient

lists

SchoolCensus

SchoolCensus

Population

estimates

Population

estimates

36



Population Growth

0

300,000

600,000

900,000

1871

1891

1911

1931

1951

1971

1991

2011

2031

1871-1971

Approx. 150,000 people

1,500 per year

1971-2011

Over 200,000

Over 5,000 per year

2011-2031

Approx. 116,000

5,800 per year

37



Population Projections

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

38




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

39




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

40




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

41




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

42




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

43




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

44




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

45




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

46




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

47




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

48




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

49




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

50




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

51




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

52




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

53




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

54




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

55




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

56




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

57




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

58




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

59




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

60




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

61




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

62




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-405

-09

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

990

+

Peo

ple

63



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1 lincolnshire research observatory lincolnshire’s changing population components of change and...

Documents

population population

population births

population ninos

population projections

population internal

deaths population estimates

migration slide

ons population estimates