1 noaa testbeds and proving grounds: fostering transitions between research and...
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NOAA Testbeds and Proving Grounds:Fostering Transitions between Research
and Applications/Operations
Paula Davidson, Ph.D. Chief ScientistOffice of Science & TechnologyNOAA/National Weather Service Co-chair, NOAA Testbeds & Proving Grounds Coordinating Committee
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Background
NOAA operates a number of testbeds (TB) and operations and services proving grounds (PG), but lacked a systematic approach for their function, mode of operation, and reporting results
March 2011- NOAA Line Office Transition Managers approved guidelines and chartered a Coordinating Committee for Testbeds & Proving Grounds (TB/PG)
• Guidelines:• Roles and responsibilities of TB/PG • Function and execution• Governance
• Coordination:• Increasing R&D leveraging, collaboration for R2O
Increasing reliance on TB/PG for advancing R2O/A/U • NOAA re-chartered COMT (2013) • CSTAR FFO links results to testing in OPG; use of NWS Virtual Laboratory (FY14)• Planning for Next Generation Global Prediction System
Brief working definitions of TB/PG:TB-- for developmental testingPG-- for pre-deployment (experimental)
testing of advanced operations, services and science and technology capabilities
R&D R&D
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NOAA Testbed and Proving Ground Portal
http://www.testbeds.noaa.gov (thanks to : Rich Lataitis & Barb deLuisi)
AWT CTB COMT DTC
GRPG HWT HMT JCSDA
JHT OPG SWPT
Current NOAA TB/PGCurrent NOAA TB/PG
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Framework for Transition:Phased Implementation into NWS Operations
Phase Key Q Key Metric FacilityR&D Does it work? Peer-reviewed
PublicationUniversities, Government Labs, Private Industry
Developmental Testing
Works with operational systems?
Feasibility/ Engineering Analysis Successful
Testbed with operations-like environment
Experimental Testing
Meets operational performance criteria?
Go/No Go based on: Objective Performance (e.g. accuracy)
Subjective Feedback
Production Readiness
Operational proving ground for clinical tests and full “dress rehearsal”
Operations Maintains required performance?
Objective criteria: accuracy and reliability
Operations
TB
PG
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Coordinating Committee
Comprised of TB/PG managers and LOTM-designated LO focal points: Co-chairs: Paula Davidson (NWS LO focal point) Mike Uhart (OAR LO focal
point)
Initial meeting (NWS and OAR members): Seattle AMS, Jan 2011 Featured Activities:
Monthly virtual meetings featuring TB/PG recent tests/results Coordination/Outreach: revamped TB/PG coordination website www.testbeds.noaa.gov,
coordinated SEE inputs, tutorials on guidelines, testing protocols , coordinated AOs Organize annual science-themed TB/PG workshops Adopted recommended approach to metrics for recognizing progress, Fall 2012:
Relevance, quality, and effectiveness/efficiency Accomplishments and performance metrics provided in annual TBPG progress reports
Summary publication (Ralph, Intrieri, et al.): The emergence of weather-focused testbeds linking research and forecasting operations. BAMS, 94, 1187-1210, 2013
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Annual Workshops
Highlight/promote integrated testing opportunities in NOAA TB/PG Overviews from current/emerging TB/PG Integrating Science Themes:
3rd Annual TBPG Workshop: Intense Precipitation Events (2012) 4rd Annual TBPG Workshop: High-impact Environmental Events (2013) 5th Annual TBPG Workshop: Advances in Environmental Prediction (2014)
Best paper (Science-theme) competition Awarded to Faye Barthold (WPC, 2012); Tom Workoff (WPC, 2013); Chad
Gravelle (OPG, 2014) Criteria - excellence, relevance, presentation
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FY 2014 Activities
TBPG Workshop: College Park, MD, April 16-18 Science Theme: Advances in Environmental Prediction Best Paper: Chad Gravelle, “Transitioning the GOES-R Fog and Low Stratus
Products from Research To Operations Through the NWS Operations Proving Ground”
Closer connection with CSTAR , MDL’s Virtual Laboratory and pilot activities: advanced testing
Increasing coordination, external engagement Combined Special Testing Opportunities In-residence and virtual testing Consolidation on Website: Announcements of Opportunity
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Backup
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FY13 Highlights: COMT FY13 Highlights: COMT • COMT results featured in a special issue of JGR-Oceans:
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FY13 Highlights: DTC FY13 Highlights: DTC
Hurricane-WRF (HWRF) testing for operational implementation at NCEP
Operational forecastshttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/
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• HWRF provides guidance to the National Hurricane Center for the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins
• Upgraded HWRF increased skill in forecasts of hurricane intensity
• Regional model 27/9/3 km• HWRF has 8 components, many
used in other applications• Developmental Testbed Center
roles:– Support code to community– Code management– Testing and evaluation (R2O)
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FY13 Highlights: GOES-R PGFY13 Highlights: GOES-R PG• NWS Central Region Fog & Low Stratus Evaluation, Aug-Dec 2012
• Products demonstrated successfully – scheduled for delivery via NWS operational systems• High latitude & Arctic testing
• snow/fog, low stratus/volcanic ash, aviation applications• GOES-R Algorithm Development & Testing
• Simulated satellite imagery: lightning mappers, nearcasting data, convective initiation, cloud-top cooling
• Partnerships • NWS: NCEP/AWT, HWT, WPC, OPC, Regions; NESDIS : SAB; CIRA, CIMSS, NASA/SPoRT, DoD,
private sector…
courtesyMike Pavalonis, NESDIS/STAR
Heritage GOES FogDetection
GOES-R AlgorithmApplied to GOES
GOES-R AlgorithmApplied to GOES-R
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• 26 forecasters, researchers and model developers from WPC, NSSL, ESRL and HMT collected to examine alternatives for short term QPF and flood prediction
• Several operational and research models tested
12-hr mean QPF
valid 2013 07/18 0Z
FY13 Highlights: HMTFY13 Highlights: HMT
Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment (July 8-26, 2013)
Operational forecastshttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/
QPE NAM- X Nest HRRR
NAM Nest NSSL WRF HRW ARW
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FY13 Highlights: HWTFY13 Highlights: HWT
• LAPS Space and Time Multiscale Analysis System (STMAS)• Forecast return moisture and instability very useful for determining if storms will change
intensity in 0-2 hours• WDSSII Multiple-Radar/Multiple Sensor (MRMS) applications
• 2-minute updates of MRMS products helps keep situational awareness high• Greater efficiency in storm diagnosis• Aided in positioning of storm-based warning polygons
• Hail Size Discrimination Algorithm (HSDA)• Very beneficial in breaking down areas of
severe vs. non-severe hail• Spatial extent of giant hail tended to be too
large at times• GOES-R Algorithm Development and
Testing• Simulated satellite imagery: lightning mappers,
nearcasting data, convective initiation, cloud-top cooling
Experimental Warning Testing**
** additional highlights from experimental forecast testing not shown
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Testing new snow depth algorithms led to improved snow characterization in land-surface component (NOAH) for NCEP’s operational GFS (release v3.5) and WRF models.
Improved prediction of snow depth by NOAH/GFS
•U of Arizona effort, funded by NOAA’s JCSDA external research program•Collaboration with NESDIS CRTM and NWS land data assimilation teams •Improved roughness length led to increased skill in snow depth prediction by GFS/NOAH and WFR/NOAH•Implemented in GFS/NOAH land model (latest release, v 3.5).
Black: observationsGreen: control GFSYellow: GFS + improved roughness lengthRed: GFS + all improvements
averaged (over 100-120degW, 50-60degN) for 3/2011JCSDA annual report; figure courtesy of X. Zeng, U Arizona
FY 13 Highlights: JCSDAFY 13 Highlights: JCSDA
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11 Joint Hurricane Testbed projects completed their two years of testing during the 2013 hurricane season
Uhlhorn , Hurricane Research Division: Stepped-frequency microwave radiometer bias-corrected hurricane winds
Ginis/Bender, U Rhode Island/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory: Improved hurricane models
FY 13 Highlights: JHTFY 13 Highlights: JHT
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• Virtual AWIPS proof of concept
• GOES-R Fog/Low Stratus Tool
• Support for AWC TB Experiment
• Programming for Winter Hazard Message Simplification• Finalizing Test Plan with NASA SPoRT/GOES-R for
Operational Readiness Evaluation in March 2014• Test plan developed for Hazards Services
Hydro Tool
FY 13 Highlights: OPGFY 13 Highlights: OPG
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FY13 Highlights: SWPTFY13 Highlights: SWPT
• Tested upgrades to operational Wang-Sheeley-Arge Enlil model for prediction geomagnetic storms, now implemented
• Tested new coronal mass ejection analysis tool, now implemented • Tested Space Environmental Anomalies Expert System Real Time
for GEO satellite operators, now implemented• Evaluated and selected magnetosphere/geospace model for
transition to operations (with NASA)• Tested ionosphere and thermosphere
products • Ovation Prime aurora forecast model, now
implemented• Upgrade/expansion to US Total Electron Content
model – N America domain ready for implementation; global product in testing