1. Patterns and Variability

1.1. Enhancing Observations• Coordination & Standardization

1.2. Model-Data Fusion• Model-data fusion techniques

1.3 Carbon Budgets• Methodologies, Sector Analyses

2. Mechanisms & Feedbacks2.1. Integrated C Sink Mechanisms

• Multiple mechanisms and interactions

2.2. Emergent Properties C-Climate• Paleo and Forward

2.3. Emergent Properties C-C-Hum.• New modeling approaches

3. Future & C Management

3.1. Mitigation Options• Control points land, ocean, FF

3.2. C Management & Sustainabil.• Portfolios and sustainable develop.

3.3. Regional/Urban Development• C consequences and Management

GCP Implementation Plan

The Conceptual Framework

Disturbances EcosystemPhysiology

AtmosphericCarbon

TerrestrialCarbon

Ocean/CoastalCarbon

BiologicalPump

ClimateChange

andVariabil.

SolubilityPump

Unperturbed C CyclePerturbed C Cycle

Land UseSystems

IndustryTransportSystems

Ocean-useSystems

FossilCarbon

Perceptionsof humanwelfare

Changes ininstitutions& technol.

Human Response

International Project and Affiliate Offices

CSIRO,Canberra Australia

NIES,TsukubaJapan (April 2004)

USABeijing, China

Affiliate Off.Proposed only

CarboEurope, GermanyGHG CA, Italy

IOC/SCOR-CO2 PanelParis, France

Affiliate Off.

Inter.Proj.Off.

Co-Chairs:

Michael Raupach, AustraliaRobert Dickinson, USAOran Young, USA

Executive Directors:

Pep Canadell, AustraliaPenelope Canan, Japan (startingApril 2004)

Affiliated Offices:

EU-CarboEurope:Annette Freibauer, Germany

SCOR-IOC Panel on Ocean CO2:Maria Hood, France

Michael Apps, CanadaAlain Chedin, FranceCheng-Tung Arthur Chen, China, Taipei

Peter Cox, UKEllen Druffel, USAChristopher Field, USAPatricia Romero Lankao, MexicoLouis Philipe Lebel, ThailandAnnan Partwardhan, IndiaMonika Rhein, GermanyChristopher Sabine, USARiccardo Valentini, ItalyYoshiki Yamagata, Japan

Scientific Steering Committee

Portfolio of Activities

A few examples

Portfolio of Activities: Overview

2002 2003

Annual SSC Meeting

Publication Science Framework

Terrestrial Sinks Wk

Research Institute Data Assimilation

State-of-the-Art Synthesis Wk

Ocean Coordination Wk

2004

Regional T. C Budgets Confer.

Coupling Humans-Biogeochem.

Data Assimilation: Data Wk

Urban Dev.-Carbon Institute

CoP9-Synthesis Book

Land Use-Carbon SI

IOCCP - http://ioc.unesco.org/ioccp/index.htm [with the IOC-SCOR CO2 Panel]

International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project

• 13-15 January 2003, Paris, FranceInternational Workshop on Ocean Carbon Research and Observation Activities. Contact: Maria Hood, Chris Sabine

• 10-14 March 2003, Hazaki Town,Ibaraki, Japan International pCO2 sensor intercomparison experiment. Contact: Y.Nojiri• 14-17 January 2004, Tsukuba, Japan

Workshop on Ocean Surface pCO2, Data Integration and Database Development. Contact:Y.Nojiri

Repeated SectionsVolunteer Observing Ships

• Synthesize large-scale ocean carbon observation activities and plans.• Integration of large-scale carbon studies into international research programs

• Promote acceptance of standardized measurement techniques• Improved accessibility to international carbon data sets

Model-Data Fusion

Research Institutes (2 weeks long)and focused workshops

Research, Tool development, Capacity Building

1. Atmospheric Data-Model Assimilation [Colorado2002]

2. Terrestrial Model-Data Fusion [Sheffield 2003] w/GTOS

3. Synthesis processes intercomparsion [Australia 2004]

4. Ocean Data-Model Assimilation [2005]

5. Earth System Data-Model Assimilation [2006]

http://dataportal.ucar.edu/CDAS/http://www.fao.org/gtos/meetSHE.html

Integrated Terrestrial C Sink MechanismsCa

rbo n

Sto

rag e

in t h

e B i

osph

ere

aCO2 concentrationTemperature

Temperature

Land use

Fire SuppressionNitrogen deposition

Warm ecosystems

Coldecosystems

Soil respiration

CO2 fertilization

N fertilization Fire

Forestconversion

Plant growth

x

x

x

x

With IPCC

GCP 2003

Toward CO2 Stabilization:Issues, Strategies, and Consequences

SCOPE-GCP Synthesis Activity

Book Presentation: COP9-Milan, Dec03Publication: February 2004

Integrated Synthesis

1. current status and past trends of the carbon cycle; 2. vulnerabilities in the carbon cycle in the 21st Century; 3. scenarios, targets, gaps and costs4. a portfolio of carbon management options;

5. CO2 stabilization pathways and sustainable Earth System

Topics:

Vulnerability of carbon pools in the earth system

Grubber et al. 2004 (from SCOPE-GCP rapid assessment)

• Compile a catalogue of vulnerable C pools and their global distribution.• Quantify the extent of these vulnerable pools and their C content.• Assess the processes affecting the balance and release of C (incl. “thresholds)• Analyze the impacts of C release from vulnerable pools on a[CO2] and climate

NCEAS proposal 2004, submitted

C Consequences of Regional Development Pathways

Advanced Institute on Urbanization, Emission, and

the Global Carbon CycleSTART-Packard FoundationNCAR, Boulder, Colorado,

4 – 22 August 2003

Integrating carbon management into development strategies of cities

Establishing a network of regional case studies• Asia Pacific (funded)

• Central-South America (funded)

Sour

ce: D

iane

Pat

aki

Workshop Series (2004 – 2007):

Coupling the human dimensions to the climate-carbon system

In preparation

Title: Coupling biophysical and human dimensions of the carbon cycle.

Goal: To identify and develop key methods, models, process knowledge and interactions necessary to treat the global carbon cycle as a coupled carbon-climate-human system.

Topics:• Dynamical-system and game-theory

approaches.• Models of Intermediate Complexity• Integrative Assessment Models• Institutional dimensions• Technological opportunities and

constraints• Conceptual Frameworks• Scenarios-based approaches

Products

Synthesis Products

Canadell J, Ciais P, Cox P, Heimann P

(eds.) (2004) Quantifying Terrestrial

Carbon Sinks. Climatic Change.

Special Issue (in press)

Canadell J, Ciais P, Cox P, Heimann P

(eds.) (2004) Quantifying Terrestrial

Carbon Sinks. Climatic Change.

Special Issue (in press)

Field C, Raupach M (eds.) (2004) The

Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans,

Climate and the Natural World. Island Press,

Washington D.C. (in press)

Field C, Raupach M (eds.) (2004) The

Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans,

Climate and the Natural World. Island Press,

Washington D.C. (in press)

Canadell J, Zhou G, Noble I (eds.) (2002)

Land use/cover change effects on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Asian

Pacific region. Science in China. Special Issue 45

Supp.: 1-141.

Canadell J, Zhou G, Noble I (eds.) (2002)

Land use/cover change effects on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Asian

Pacific region. Science in China. Special Issue 45

Supp.: 1-141.

GCP (2003) Science framework and implementation.

Canadell J, DickinsonR, Hibbart K, Young O,

Raupach M (eds.).ESSP Rept. No. 1; GCP Report No. 1,

Canberra, p.69

GCP (2003) Science framework and implementation.

Canadell J, DickinsonR, Hibbart K, Young O,

Raupach M (eds.).ESSP Rept. No. 1; GCP Report No. 1,

Canberra, p.69

All publications• Canadell J, Ciais P, Cox P, Heimann M (2003) Quantifying terrestrial carbon sinks. Special issue in Climatic Change (in

preparation)• Field C, Raupach M, editors (2003) Towards CO2 stabilization: Issues, Strategies, and Consequences, Field C, Raupach M (Eds.). Island

Press, Washington D.C. (in press)• Global Carbon Project (2003). The GCP Science framework and Implementation. Canadell JG, Dickson R, Raupach M,

Young O (Eds). Earth Science System, Partnership (ESS) Report Series No.1, GCP Report Series No 1, Canberra, pp. 69• Sabine C, Hood M (2003) Ocean carbon scientists organize to acheive better coordination, cooperation . EOS 84: 218-220• Canadell J, Zhou G, Noble I, editors (2002)

Land use/cover change effects on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Asian Pacific region. Science in China. Special Issue 45 Supp.: 1-141.

• Hibbard K, Steffen W, Benedict S, Busalachi T, Canadell J, Dickinson R, Raupach M, Smith B, Tilbrook B, Velling P, Young O (2001) The carbon challenge. An IGBP-IHDP-WCRP project. Stockholm.

 Pre-project products• Schimel DS, House JI, Hibbard KA, Bousquet P, Ciais P, Peylin P, Braswell BH, Apps MA, Baker D, Bondeau A, Canadell

J, Churkina G, Cramer W, Denning AS, Field CB, Friedlingstein P, Goodale C, Heimann M, Houghton RA, Melillo JM, Moore III B, Murdiyarso D, Noble I, Pacala SW, Prentice IC, Raupach MR, Rayner PJ, Scholes RJ, Steffen WL, Wirth C (2001) Recent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems. Nature 414: 169-172.

• Gupta J, Lebel L, Velling P, Young O, IHDP Secretariat (2001) IHDP Global Carbon cycle research. Bonn, IHDP.• Falkowski P, RJ Scholes, E. Boyle, J. Canadell, D. Canfield, J. Elser, N. Gruber, K. Hibbard, P. Högberg, S. Linder, F.T.

Mackenzie, B. Moore III, T. Pederson, Y. Rosenthal, S. Seitzinger, V. Smetacek, W. Steffen [The IGBP Carbon Working Group] (2000) The Global Carbon Cycle: A Test of our Knowledge of Earth as a System. Science 290: 291-296.

• Canadell J.G, Mooney H.A., Baldocchi D.D., Berry J.A., Ehleringer J.R., Field C.B., Gower S.T., Hollinger D.Y., Hunt J.E., Jackson R.B., Running S.W., Shaver G.R., Steffen W., Trumbore S.E., Valentini R., Bond B.Y. (2000). Carbon Metabolism of the Terrestrial Biosphere: a multi-technique approach for improved understanding. Ecosystems 3: 115-130.

• Steffen, W, Noble, I, Canadell, J, Apps, M, Schulze, E-D, Jarvis, PG, Baldocchi, D, Ciais, P, Cramer, W, Ehleringer, J, Farquhar, G, Field, CB, Ghazi, A, Gifford, R, Heimann, M, Houghton, R, Kabat, P, Körner, C, Lambin, E, Linder, S, Mooney, HA, Murdiyarso, D, Post, WM, Prentice, IC, Raupach, MR, Schimel, DS, Shvidenko, A and Valentini, R (1998) The terrestrial carbon cycle: Implications for the Kyoto protocol. Science 280: 1393-1394.

www.globalcarbonproject.org