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Predicting Success in Math: The relationship between high school courses and remedial math in college

Brandon LagerquistBrandon LagerquistNorthshore School DistrictNorthshore School District

Paul SternPaul SternWashington State UniversityWashington State University

Social & Economic Sciences Research Center Social & Economic Sciences Research Center

March 26, 2009March 26, 2009

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Presentation Outline Background – why study relationship between high Background – why study relationship between high

school math and college remediation?school math and college remediation?

Math Placement and First College EnrollmentMath Placement and First College Enrollment in in MathMath

Predicting the Need for Pre-College MathPredicting the Need for Pre-College Math

Exploring Differences between Students at 2-Year Exploring Differences between Students at 2-Year and 4-Year Collegesand 4-Year Colleges

Pre-College Needs of Students who took Higher Pre-College Needs of Students who took Higher Levels of MathLevels of Math

Implications and future researchImplications and future research

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Background

• Why is remedial math in college an Why is remedial math in college an important topic?important topic?• it is one indicator of preparedness.it is one indicator of preparedness.• need for remediation strains need for remediation strains

budgets.budgets.• need for remediation costs time and need for remediation costs time and

causes frustration.causes frustration.• need for remediation is a barrier to need for remediation is a barrier to

success.success.

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Pre-College Math is a Barrier to Degree/Certificate Completion

Placed into Pre-College Placed into College Level

90

38%

Entering CohortTook Placement Exam

14261050 (74%)

CBC '03 Freshman Cohort

239

Percent Completing in 3 years

811

96

12%

Placement by Level

Completed an AA or Certificate in 3 years

77% 23%

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Study Sample (N=1,219)

Graduated from high school in 2004 or Graduated from high school in 2004 or 20052005

Enrolled in district at least 3 years and Enrolled in district at least 3 years and took the WASL took the WASL

Not enrolled in the ELL programNot enrolled in the ELL program

Enrolled at a public college Enrolled at a public college andand information available about readiness for information available about readiness for college-level math or Englishcollege-level math or English

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Data Sources High school transcript, assessment, and High school transcript, assessment, and

demographic informationdemographic information

Higher education enrollment and remediation Higher education enrollment and remediation data from the Graduate Follow up Study (GFS) data from the Graduate Follow up Study (GFS) and National Student Clearinghouse (NSC)and National Student Clearinghouse (NSC)

Enrollment & assessment data from Enrollment & assessment data from Washington’s public colleges and universitiesWashington’s public colleges and universities

Placement test results, math enrollments, and Placement test results, math enrollments, and math grades from Bellevue, Cascadia, and math grades from Bellevue, Cascadia, and Shoreline Community Colleges.Shoreline Community Colleges.

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Definition of “College Ready” in Math: 2-Year Colleges

Bellevue, Cascadia, & Shoreline CollegeBellevue, Cascadia, & Shoreline College: : College-readiness was determined by College-readiness was determined by examining the math placement test results, examining the math placement test results, the level of first enrollment, and/or the the level of first enrollment, and/or the grade earned in the first math class. grade earned in the first math class. (N=617)(N=617)

Other 2-Year CollegeOther 2-Year College: A student was : A student was college-ready if they enrolled in a college-college-ready if they enrolled in a college-level math course at a community college level math course at a community college without first taking a remedial course. without first taking a remedial course. (N=104)(N=104)

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Definition of “College Ready” in Math: 4-Year Colleges

Washington Public 4-Year CollegeWashington Public 4-Year College: A : A student was college-ready if they student was college-ready if they received a score on the Math received a score on the Math Placement Test that placed them into a Placement Test that placed them into a college level course, college level course, andand if they were if they were not identified on the Graduate Follow not identified on the Graduate Follow up Study as having enrolled in a up Study as having enrolled in a remedial course. (N=498)remedial course. (N=498)

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College Readiness by Type of College

Percent of Graduates who were College Ready in Math by Type of College

37%

51%

70%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

NSD Total (N=1,219)

Attended2-year

(N=721)

Attended4-year

(N=498)

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Distribution of Highest Math Course Passed

Highest Level of Math Completed Successfully

Applied Math2%

Lower Than Algebra

2%

Int 4/ Pre-Calculus

28%

Int 3/Algebra II/Trig39%

Int 2/ Geometry13%

Calculus/ AP/IB12%

Int 1/ Algebra5%

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Math Placement and First College Enrollment in Math

To what extent did students who placed into To what extent did students who placed into pre-college math at a CTC defer enrollment pre-college math at a CTC defer enrollment in math until after their first year? in math until after their first year?

How many and which students placed into How many and which students placed into college-level math but choose to start at the college-level math but choose to start at the pre-college level?pre-college level?

How many and which students placed into How many and which students placed into pre-college but enrolled at the college level?pre-college but enrolled at the college level?

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Placement & Enrollment of Local Community College Students

Placement Test and Enrollment Data for 881 Graduates at Local CTCs

Placement Test & Enrollment

41%

Placement Test Only10%

Enrollment Only19%

No Placement or Enrollment Data

30%

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Immediate or Deferred Enrollment?

Elapsed Quarters Between First Test and First Enrollment

35% 40%

28%32%

9%

9%7%

22% 15%3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pre-College(N=297)

College-Ready(N=118)

Not Enrolled

At Least 4 Qtrs

2-3 Qtrs

1 Qtr

0 Qtr

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Placement and Level of Course Enrolled in

Math Test Placement and SubsequentMath Enrollment Level

78%

8%16%

73%

23%

21% 18%

61%

1%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pre-CollegeLevel Placement

(N=281)

CollegeLevel Placement

(N=169)

No Test Taken(N=431)

No Enrollment

College Level Enrollment

Pre-College Enrollment

A

E

F

D

C

B

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Focus on Students with No Math Information

Local CTC Students without Math Coursework or Placement Tests: Percentage also Attending a 4-Year College

12%

11%

52%

86%

90%

88%

89%

48%

14%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Integrated 1/Algebra or Lower

(N=25)

Integrated 2/Geometry (N=28)

Integrated 3/Algebra II/Trig

(N=88)

Integrated 4/Pre-Calculus

(N=72)

Calculus/AP/IB (N=49)

Students at 4-Year & CTC Students at CTC Only

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Placement and Level of Course Enrolled in

Math Test Placement and SubsequentMath Enrollment Level

78%

8%16%

73%

23%

21% 18%

61%

1%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pre-CollegeLevel Placement

(N=281)

CollegeLevel Placement

(N=169)

No Test Taken(N=431)

No Enrollment

College Level Enrollment

Pre-College Enrollment

A

E

F

D

C

B

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Predicting the Need for Pre-College Math

Does a student’s course-taking history predict Does a student’s course-taking history predict whether they will need to take pre-college or whether they will need to take pre-college or “remedial” courses?“remedial” courses?

Does the timing of high school coursework Does the timing of high school coursework influence the need for remedial instruction? influence the need for remedial instruction?

Does a student’s grades in math predict whether Does a student’s grades in math predict whether they will need to take remedial math?they will need to take remedial math?

How does performance on the math WASL relate How does performance on the math WASL relate to the likelihood that a student will be ready for to the likelihood that a student will be ready for college level coursework?college level coursework?

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College Readiness by Type of College

Percent of Graduates who were College Ready in Math by Type of College

37%

51%

70%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

NSD Total (N=1,219)

Attended2-year

(N=721)

Attended4-year

(N=498)

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College Readiness by Highest Course Passed

Percent of Graduates who were College Ready by Highest Math Completed Successfully

16%

90%

80%

39%

9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Integrated 1/Algebra or Lower

(N=110)

Integrated 2/Geometry (N=152)

Integrated 3/Algebra II/Trig

(N=471)

Integrated 4/Pre-Calculus

(N=332)

Calculus/AP/IB (N=147)

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College Readiness by Timing of Highest Course

Percent of Graduates who were College Readyby Highest Math Successfully Completed

37%

17%

85%

10%

80%

43%

14%

9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Integrated 1/Algebra or Lower (N=63) (N=47)

Integrated 2/Geometry

(N=96) (N=56)

Integrated 3/Algebra II/Trig

(N=281) (N=190)

Integrated 4/Pre-Calculus

(N=46) (N=286)

Took 1 year off Did not take a year off

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College Readiness by Grades in Math

Percent of Graduates who were College Ready by Grades Earned in Math

81%70%

40%

12%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

D of F (N=199)

C (N=418)

B (N=528)

A (N=73)

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College Readiness by Math WASL Performance

Percent of Graduates who were College Ready in Math by Performance on the Math Section of the WASL

79%

48%

18%9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

L1 (N=107)

L2 (N=218)

L3 (N=403)

L4 (N=470)

Math WASL Level

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College Readiness by High School

Percent of Graduates who were College Readyin Math by High School

(Excluding Alternative Schools)

56%

47%48%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

A(N=388)

B(N=474)

C(N=330)

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Findings from Regression on Math College Readiness Logistic regression with an RLogistic regression with an R22 value of 48% value of 48% Highest level math course (most important)Highest level math course (most important) Math WASL ScoreMath WASL Score High School Math GPAHigh School Math GPA Gender (Males more likely)Gender (Males more likely) Taking a math course in the senior yearTaking a math course in the senior year

Non-significant variables: High school, Non-significant variables: High school, ethnicity, level of college enrollment, and ethnicity, level of college enrollment, and SPEDSPED

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Differences between 2-Year and 4-Year College Students

What are the differences in college What are the differences in college readiness rates by student readiness rates by student characteristics and math background characteristics and math background between students at two-year colleges between students at two-year colleges and at four-year colleges? and at four-year colleges?

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Comparing 2-Year and 4-Year College Readiness

Number and Percentage of Graduates who were College Ready in Math by Type of College

618

268 350

601

453148

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

NSD Total(N=1,219)

Attended 2-year(N=721)

Attended 4-year(N=498)

Pre-College MathCollege-Level Math

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Comparisons by Demographic Characteristics

College Ready Populations Among Two- and Four-Year Students

36%37%35%

41%

34%

51%

30%31%

41%

78%

60%

68%63%

74%72%69%

73%70%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

NSDTotal

Male Female White TradMinority

Asian A B C

Gender Race/Ethnicity High School

2-year Students

4-year Students

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Comparisons by Math Background

College Ready Populations Among Two- and Four-Year Students

72%

37%

16%

8%

76%

56%

37%

10%

91%

80%

35%

12%

83%

64%

24%20%

83%79%

47%

29%

89%

81%

47%

25%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

BelowInt3/

Alg2/Trig

Int3/Alg2/Trig

Int4/PreCalc

Calc/AP 0-1.9 2-2.9 3-3.9 4.0 L1 L2 L3 L4

Max Level Math Passed Math GPA WASL Math

2-year Students

4-year Students

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Pre-College Needs of “Higher Level Math” Students

Focusing on Calculus and Integrated 4 Focusing on Calculus and Integrated 4 students, what can course grades, students, what can course grades, WASL math scores, placement test WASL math scores, placement test results, and course enrollments tell us results, and course enrollments tell us about the pre-college needs of these about the pre-college needs of these students? students?

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Overall College Readiness Rates in Math

Percentage of Graduates who were College Ready by Highest Level of Math Passed

90%80%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Calculus (N=147) Integrated 4 (N=332)

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College Enrollment Rates

College Enrollments by Highest Level of Math Taken

18%5%

49%

51%

7%8%

19%30%

7%7%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Calculus (N=401) Integrated 4 (N=634)

Not Enrolled

Out of State

WA 4 Year Priv.

WA 4 Year Pub.

CTC

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College Readiness is a Function of Overall Preparation College Readiness Rates by Student Math Performance

89%91%

74%

92%96%90% 91%

77%

63%

81%80%76%

86%

76%82%

88%

80%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Overall A Avg. B Avg. C Avg. L4 L3 L2 2 YrCollege

4 YrCollege

GPA in Math Math WASL College Level

Calculus

Integrated 4

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Students are not choosing to enroll in a lower level class

Pre-College Pre-College 1 11 12Not College Pre-College None 1 5 6Ready College Pre-College 0 1 1

None Pre-College 1 5 63 22 25

Pre-College College 0 1 1College College College 5 63 68Ready College None 4 11 15

None College 27 24 5136 99 135

Total 39 121 160

Total

Total Not College Ready

Total College Ready

Integrated 4Pre-Calculus

Placement Level

Enrollment Level Calculus

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Conclusions: Placement and Enrollment (Part 1)

Students who placed into pre-college Students who placed into pre-college math were more likely to wait a year or math were more likely to wait a year or more (29%) before enrolling, than those more (29%) before enrolling, than those who placed at the college level (18%). who placed at the college level (18%).

Students who placed at the pre-college Students who placed at the pre-college level and did not enroll in a math class level and did not enroll in a math class were most likely to have stopped at or were most likely to have stopped at or below Int. 2 and much more likely to below Int. 2 and much more likely to have a D average or lower in math.have a D average or lower in math.

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Conclusions: Placement and Enrollment (Part 2)

Students who placed at the college Students who placed at the college level and did not enroll in a math class level and did not enroll in a math class were more likely than their peers to were more likely than their peers to have stopped at Int. 4/Pre-Calculus and have stopped at Int. 4/Pre-Calculus and have a C average in math. have a C average in math.

Students who placed at the college Students who placed at the college level and enrolled at the pre-college level and enrolled at the pre-college level were more likely than their peers level were more likely than their peers to have stopped at Integrated to have stopped at Integrated 3/Algebra II. 3/Algebra II.

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Conclusions: Predictors of Remediation

The need for pre-college math can be The need for pre-college math can be explained by courses taken, WASL explained by courses taken, WASL scores, and student grades.scores, and student grades.

Differences between high schools are Differences between high schools are most often a function of the above most often a function of the above factors. factors.

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Conclusions: Two-Year and Four-Year Students

At two-year colleges, males and Asian At two-year colleges, males and Asian Americans were more likely to be ready Americans were more likely to be ready for college-level coursework than other for college-level coursework than other groups.groups.

Students attending four-year colleges Students attending four-year colleges enter with higher math skill levels than enter with higher math skill levels than

students attending two-year colleges.students attending two-year colleges.

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Conclusions: Calculus and Integrated 4/Pre-Calc Students

Students with lower grades and lower Students with lower grades and lower WASL test scores were less likely to be WASL test scores were less likely to be college-ready than their peers with college-ready than their peers with higher grades and higher test scores.higher grades and higher test scores.

There is no evidence that students are There is no evidence that students are placing into college level and making placing into college level and making an independent choice to start at the an independent choice to start at the

pre-college level.pre-college level.

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Conclusions

• Integrated 4 is the key course for college-level Integrated 4 is the key course for college-level math.math.• 281 students completed Integrated III as a 281 students completed Integrated III as a

junior and did not move on to Integrated IV junior and did not move on to Integrated IV as a senior.as a senior.•how do we convince these students to how do we convince these students to

take Integrated IV as a senior? (39% take Integrated IV as a senior? (39% college ready who stopped at Int. 3 versus college ready who stopped at Int. 3 versus 80% college ready who stopped at Int. 4.) 80% college ready who stopped at Int. 4.)

• But, would those students who stopped at Int. But, would those students who stopped at Int. 3 be successful at Int. 4? What is the 3 be successful at Int. 4? What is the difference between a junior who takes Int. 3 difference between a junior who takes Int. 3 and moves on to Int. 4 as a senior versus the and moves on to Int. 4 as a senior versus the student who takes Int. 3 as a junior and no student who takes Int. 3 as a junior and no math as a senior?math as a senior?

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Research implications for counselors -- What our HS students need to know: Passing the WASL is not enough -- math is a Passing the WASL is not enough -- math is a

problem and barrier for many college students.problem and barrier for many college students.

You need more than just Algebra II or Integrated You need more than just Algebra II or Integrated 3 to have a high probability of moving directly 3 to have a high probability of moving directly into college level math. into college level math.

Starting in college with pre-college math does not Starting in college with pre-college math does not mean you can't go on to complete a degree. But mean you can't go on to complete a degree. But it will slow you down in comparison to other it will slow you down in comparison to other students: it will cost you money and time. students: it will cost you money and time.

Don't take a math class just to keep in practice - Don't take a math class just to keep in practice - take a higher level math class to upgrade your take a higher level math class to upgrade your skills and placementskills and placement..

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Research implications for faculty --

What our math instructors need to do: High school faculty: Go back to college. High school faculty: Go back to college.

Take the placement test(s) used by your local Take the placement test(s) used by your local college.college.

Sit in on courses that students coming out of your Sit in on courses that students coming out of your courses should matriculate into.courses should matriculate into.

College faculty: Go back to high school. College faculty: Go back to high school. Sit in courses that students coming into your Sit in courses that students coming into your

courses should be coming from.courses should be coming from. Participate in a professional learning community with Participate in a professional learning community with

a focus on your shared problem. Share…a focus on your shared problem. Share… Curriculum alignmentCurriculum alignment Effective instructional techniques & assessmentsEffective instructional techniques & assessments

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Contact Information

Paul SternPaul SternWashington State UniversityWashington State University

Social & Economic Sciences Research Center Social & Economic Sciences Research Center Puget Sound DivisionPuget Sound Division

360-576-6030 ext. 21360-576-6030 ext. 21 http://www.sesrc.wsu.edu/k12http://www.sesrc.wsu.edu/k12

sternpo@wsu.edusternpo@wsu.edu

Brandon LagerquistBrandon LagerquistNorthshore School DistrictNorthshore School District

425-408-7722425-408-7722blagerquist@nsd.orgblagerquist@nsd.org

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Acknowledgements

• Funding for the preceding research was Funding for the preceding research was made possible in part due to grants from:made possible in part due to grants from:• Washington Educational Research Washington Educational Research

Association (WERA)Association (WERA)•www.wera-web.orgwww.wera-web.org

• Transition Math Project (TMP)Transition Math Project (TMP)•www.transitionmathproject.orgwww.transitionmathproject.org