10 capital budgeting: decision criteria and real option considerations ©2006 thomson/south-western
TRANSCRIPT
2
Introduction
This chapter looks at capital budgeting decision models.
It discusses and illustrates their relative strengths and weaknesses.
It examines project review and post-audit procedures, and traces a sample project through the capital budgeting process.
3
Capital Budgeting Criteria
Net present value (NPV)
Internal rate of return (IRR)
Profitability index (PI)
Payback period (PB)
4
Net Present Value
PV of the stream of future CFs from a project minus the project’s net investment
NINVPVNCFNPV
NINVNPV NCF
n
tk tt
11
5
NPV Characteristics
NPV 0 acceptable above-normal profits Considers the time value of money Absolute measure of wealth
Positive NPVs increase owner’s wealth Negative NPVs decrease owner’s wealth
NPV not easily understood CFs over the project’s life reinvested at k Does not consider the value of real
options
6
Conditions Allowing Above-Normal Profits Buyers preferences for established brand names Control of distribution systems Patent control Exclusive ownership of superior natural
resources Inability of new firms to acquire factors of
production Access to lower cost financial resources Economies of scale Access to superior labor or management talents
7
Profitability Index
Ratio of the PV of future cash flows over the life of the project to the NINV
NINV
NCF
PI
n
ttk1 1
8
PI Characteristics
PI > 1 acceptable Considers the time value of money CFs reinvested at k If the NPV and PI criteria disagree, with no
capital rationing, the NPV is preferred. Relative measure showing wealth
increase per dollar of investment Preferred under capital rationing
9
IRR
Rate of discount that equates the PV of net cash flows of a project with the PV of the NINV
NINVNCF
n
ttt
r1 1
11
IRR Characteristics IRR > k acceptable Considers the time value of money Unusual CF pattern can result in multiple
rates of return. more than one sign change If the NPV and IRR criteria disagree, NPV is
preferred. Always agree if NPV > 0, IRR > k; and if
NPV < 0, IRR < k IRR assumes CF is reinvested at IRR. Interpreted easier than NPV Does not consider the value of real options
13
Payback Period
Number of years for the cumulative net cash flows from a project to equal the initial cash outlay
Net InvestmentAnnual net CF
PB =
When net CFs are unequal, When net CFs are unequal, interpolation is required.interpolation is required.
14
PB Characteristics Simple Provides a measure of project liquidity Measure of risk
risk increases with time Not a true measure of profitability Ignores CFs after the payback period Ignores the time value of money May lead to decisions that do not
maximize shareholder wealth.
15
Capital Budgeting Under Capital Rationing Calculate the PI for projects
Order the projects from the highest to the lowest PI
Accept the projects with the highest PI until the entire capital budget is spent
16
What Happens When the Next Acceptable Project is too Large? Search for another combination of
projects that increase the NPV
Attempt to relax the funds constraint
Excess funds Invest in short-term securities Reduce outstanding debt C/S dividends
17
Post-Auditing Implemented Projects Find systematic biases or errors of
uncertain projected CFs
Decide whether to abandon or continue projects that have done poorly
18
Incorporating Inflation into the Capital Budget Make sure the cost of capital takes
account of inflationary expectations
Make sure that future CF estimates include expected price and cost increases
19
Real Options in Capital Projects Investment timing
option Evaluate additional
information Abandonment option
Reduce downside risk Shutdown options
Temporarily
Growth options Research programs,
expand a small plant, or strategic acquisition
Design-in options Input/output flexibility
options or expansion options
20
Real Option Information on the Web
http://www.mbs.umd.edu/finance/atriantis/RealOptions.html
http://www.iur.ruhr-uni-bochum.de/forschung/real_options.html
http://www.real-options.com/
21
How are Real Options Concepts Being Applied?
Foundation level of use of real options concept Increases awareness of value Options can be created or destroyed Think about risk and uncertainty Value of acquiring additional information
Analytical tool Option pricing models
Value the option characteristics of projects Analyzing various project opportunities
22
International Capital Budgeting
Find the PV of the foreign CFs denominated in the foreign currency and discounted by the foreign country’s cost of capital.
Convert the PV of the CFs to the home country’s currency. multiplying by spot exchange rate
Subtract the parent company’s NINV from the PVNCFh to get the NPV.
23
Amount and Timing of Foreign CFs Differential tax rates
Legal and political constraints on CF
Government-subsidized loans