12 atun earthquake-transportationplanning_ws2014

2014 WorkshopConoscenza e tecnologie appropriate per la sostenibilità e la resilienza

in urbanistica Knowledge and Appropriate Technologies for Sustainability and Resilience

in Planning

Funda Atun, Maria Pia Boni, Annapaola Canevari, Massimo Compagnoni, Luca Marescotti, Maria Mascione, Ouejdane Mejri, Scira Menoni, Floriana Pergalani

5 marzo 2014 - 12

LAUREA MAGISTRALE DELLA SCUOLA DI ARCHITETTURA E SOCIETÀ

Laboratorio organizzato da Luca Marescotti

July 22, 2012 Footer text here 1

05 Marzo 2014 Funda Atun

The transportation system in Istanbul prone to earthquake

PART 1: Introduction to risk management

The hazard is the probability of occurrence of a particular event within a given time-‐period/geographic space Exp: Flood, earthquake, landslide etc.

Definitions

The vulnerability term represents the pre-‐disposition of elements at risk to be affected, damaged or destroyed by an event Exp. Buildings, infrastructures, people, services, organizations etc.

Definitions

•  Capacity to bounce back

•  Capacity to face uncertainties

•  Capacity to face change

Definitions

Definitions

7

Definition of vulnerability in social sciences (Alwang et al. 2001)

“A household is vulnerable to loss of welfare due to uncertain events”

“Degree of vulnerability is dependent on the nature of risk and household’s response capacity to risk”

“Vulnerability is a time-‐dependent parameter as the risk and the household characteristics change over time.”

“The poor are more vulnerable due to their limited access to resources and limited response capacities to risk”

Vulnerability relates to the consequences of the impact of a natural force!

In natural and hard science:

It dominates the engineering literature on the topic, where the emphasis in on the assessment of hazards and their impacts, putting aside the role of human systems in mediating outcomes.

Vulnerability in this case is defined as the physical vulnerability of the elements at risk!

Definitions

In social science:

Human system is at the centre. It directs attention to the underlying structural factors that reduce the capacity of the human system with a range of hazards, rather than the negative impacts following one specific hazard

Vulnerability relates to the consequences of the impact of a natural force!

Definitions

space – changes in the scale Vulnerability time

Present Past Future

Accumulation of mistakes, creation of vulnerabilities

Assessment of vulnerabilities

Preparing scenarios to mitigate present vulnerability

Local Regional Single asset

Definitions

Questions

Changing vulnerability 1)  How is vulnerability changing in an urban environment? Current awareness and preparedness of risk 2) What are the awareness and preparedness of risk at the organizational, tactical and public levels? Effects on the transportation system 3) What are the effects of the outcomes of decisions coming from organizational, tactical and public levels on the transportation system? 4) How to enhance resilience of complex transportation system against disasters?

Problems are threefold

1.  Disregarding inter-dependency of components in a system

and inter-dependency among systems

2.  Disregarding indirect and multiple hazards

3.  Dealing with social structure as if it is separated from the

physical structure

Current situation in Istanbul

Istanbul is the largest city in Turkey, among largest urban agglomerations in Europe and among largest cities in the world with a population of 13 483 052 people (TUIK, 2011). Today Istanbul is the primary city of Turkey by covering 5 512 kilometre square area, by having 18% of Turkey’s population and 23% GDP of Turkey (IMM, 2008).

Development plan of Istanbul city region (IMM, 2009)

Part 2: Earthquake Hazard

HAZARD: Tectonic plates in the world

HAZARD: Map of Earthquake Epicenters In The World

358,214 events recorded between 1963 & 1998

HAZARD: Fault lines in Turkey

Earthquake prone areas in Turkey

Earthquake hazard map

Microzonation in Istanbul (Eastern part)

Epicentral distribution of earthquakes between 1905 & 2001 in the Marmara Region

Historical Earthquakes

Historical Earthquakes

Major earthquakes in the Marmara Region between 1500-‐2000 (Source: Ambrasseys and Jackson, 2000)

Location, Mw, intensity, number of deaths and total population data of historical earthquakes in 1509, 1719, 1766 and 1894 in Istanbul

RECENT EVENTS: 17 August 1999 Marmara/Izmit Earthquake

Official Death Tool: 845 Injuries: 4.948 Damaged Housing units: 12.939 Collapsed buildings: 3.395

RECENT EVENTS: 12 November 1999 Duzce Earthquake

Umutlu et al. 2004, p.316

Source: H. Sucuoglu and Tolga Yilmaz, Düzce, Turkey: A City Hit by Two Major Earthquakes in 1999 within Three Months (no date)

RECENT EVENTS: 12 November 1999 Duzce Earthquake

Source: H. Sucuoglu and Tolga Yilmaz, Düzce, Turkey: A City Hit by Two Major Earthquakes in 1999 within Three Months (no date)

DAMAGE : 17 August & 12 November 1999 Earthquakes

Model C

Model B Model A

Model D

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS JICA&IMM 2002

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS JICA&IMM 2002

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO by Koeri, 2002

Changes in the system after the 1999 Earthquake

1)  New regulations added new duties, guidelines for pre-disaster activities and processes

2)  Shifting responsibility to local authorities increase the efficiency of implementations

3)  The system is very fragmented with highly similar responsibilities that may lead to confusion among institutions

Intensity map of 1999 Marmara Earthquake (T.C. Ministry, Crises Management, 2000)

ISTANBUL MASTER PLAN, 2009

Part 3: Vulnerability

Vulnerability of megacity Istanbul

Rapid urbanization

Rapid population growth

Rapid economic changes

Retrospective view of vulnerability concept

Changing vulnerability concept



Early republican era (1923-‐1950): •  Istanbul lost most of its population •  Henri Prost prepared the first plan of Istanbul between 1937-‐1951. •  The Prost plan was very effective on the development of the city. •  The essence of today’s vulnerabilities: low quality housing stock in

the centre, illegal housing and scarce green spaces. •  The plan was not implemented fully and some parts of the plan were

changed in the following years. •  Some of the green spaces that connected the separated parts

became fragmented and converted into hotel and commercial activities, a stadium and roads.

•  For achieving the aims of the plan, major part of the old housing stock had to be demolished during the implementation process. The remained old housing stock became the houses of low-‐income newcomers to the city. Demolishing existing housing stock and not providing sufficient houses created housing problem in the following years.

•  The location of industry suggested by the plan became a part of the centre as the city enlarged beyond the former districts by the Fifties with increasing rate of migration from rural to urban areas.



Rapid development by the 50s (1950-‐1980): •  Macro-‐form of the city dispersed in the same direction of the CBD

(Central Business District). •  Old residential areas became the central districts, surrounded by

residential buildings. •  By the establishment of the first bridge in 1973 and the second in

1988, the city had completed decentralization process, as car ownership was rapidly increasing.

•  The expansion occurred not only in the European part, but also in the Asian part along the Kadıköy – Kartal axes.

•  After the 50s central government left the regionalization policies2 and focused on the economic improvement of the Istanbul region. As a result, the city itself and the Marmara Region developed rapidly and Istanbul became the heart of the economy in Turkey.



Globalization trends (1980 – 1996): This period started in the 80s with globalization trends in the national economy. By the 80s industry moved to Kocaeli and Adapazarı in the eastern part and to Küçükçekmece in the western part of the Istanbul region, which are the areas prone to earthquake hazard more than the other parts of the city. As a result of these trends, the city has became more vulnerable to hazards, because of the low quality dwellings, increased density and the industrial production in between residential areas. After the 80s, the proportion of Istanbul in the Turkey’s total population increased immensely (Table 7.1). In 1980, the percentage of Istanbul’s population with respect to the entire population was 6.2%, and this number increased to 11.7% in 1990. The number of buildings grew accordingly. 29.8% of all buildings in Istanbul was constructed between 1980 and 1989 and this trend continued in the next ten-‐year period between 1990-‐2000 with 32.5%.



Globalization trends (1996 – present): The number of buildings constructed in different periods helps to know the number of vulnerable buildings approximately, because Istanbul became a first level earthquake zone in 1996. Before it was classified as a second level earthquake zone and therefore building codes were less restrictive. With the changes of the building codes in 1997, the newly constructed buildings became more resistant. According to the previously given numbers, 482.763 buildings were constructed before 1990. Therefore, more than half of the built stock was built according to a less stringent building code.

The 1/100 000 development plan of Istanbul was approved in 2009 by the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. The plan decentralizes the increasing population to the North in the Western part of Istanbul by opening new housing areas and commits the third airport near to Black Sea. Having the natural resources, water reserves, agricultural areas and forests in the North, which are crucial for sustainability of the city, forces to look for other options.

VULNERABILITY: Retrospective view of 80 years of vulnerability • Focus is on the economic Development •  Rapid increasing rate of Urbanization •  Increasing rate of immigration from rural to urban •  Moving to peripheries

•  Deterioration of old housing supply

•  Increasing housing need

• İllegal housing supply

• Establishing industry in and around the centre •  Decreasing urban quality

• Development through the lakes in the Western part, and through Izmit in the Eastern part of the city. •  The meaning of the squatter houses had changed from shelter to a property which can be sold and rented by the squatter amnesty law. •  First interaction between scientific community and governmental units

VULNERABILITY: Retrospective view of 80 years of vulnerability

Part 4: Current awareness and preparedness of earthquake risk

A Scheme of cognitive interactions between two agents and the altered environment after occurrence of a disaster. (Schema modified after Janssen 2005, p.4)

A Scheme of cognitive interactions between two agents and their environment (Janssen 2005, p.4)

Agents and environment

Agents and environment

Public, Operational (Organizational +Tactical) and Spatial Scales Agent Typology and Environment

What is the awareness and preparedness of risk at the organizational, tactical and public levels?

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3

Questionnaire with people from the organizational level

Questionnaire with public Questionnaire with people from the tactical level

Interviews with the people from the organizational level

•  The system has improved in the last 14 years, however, it has not been tested yet as a big event has not occurred in Istanbul in the last 14 years after 1999 Izmit earthquake.

•  Education programmes are not sector specific. They are focusing on search and rescue activities.

•  “We do everything we can do to inform public,” such as campaigns in the TV, in newspapers and billboards.

Step 1

http://www.guvenliyasam.org/

Registered members: 55.000 people Population of Istanbul: 12.000.000 people %0.4 of the total population of Istanbul

Interviews with people from the tactical level

•  There are no emergency management training programs for everyone working in the transportation system.

•  A small group of people is trained about search and rescue in every municipality.

•  Preparing disaster management plans is an obligation for municipalities, however, very few of them have their plan ready.

•  Even if some has prepared the plans, there are some problems in the implementation phase.

Step 2

First-‐degree disaster-‐emergency road. No parking along the road

Kadikoy District Disaster Management Plan

Interviews with public Part 1: Perception and awareness of risk condition and risk of earthquake

Step 3

Whether people experienced 1999 Marmara earthquake (Source: author)

Whether people knew that Istanbul is located in an earthquake prone area before the occurrence of Marmara earthquake

Do you think that the building that you live in is resistant to an earthquake?

Was the building checked against seismic risk?

Interviews with public Part 2: Awareness of information programmes and access of information

Step 3

• People do not know the existence of such kind of activities • People know, but they ignore • People know, they do not ignore but they have other priorities • People know, but they do not believe of those activities may be successful

According to the results of the survey, 85% of them have information on mitigation works against earthquake and information related programmes, but none of them have been actively involved in any kind of activities related with earthquake mitigation. They mainly encounter with information on TV and newspapers. However, most of them change the channel and do not listen or read news related with earthquake hazard.

The 1999 Marmara Earthquake is a milestone in the disaster risk management in Turkey. One of the changes after the earthquake is the increasing number of information campaigns prepared both by governmental and volunteers organizations. Although they have had extensive participation in number, the percentage of participants in these activities is less than 0.04% of the total population of Istanbul (according to the 2011 data). The main reasons are

Interviews with public Part 3: Population’s individual preparedness Step

3

Insurance holders

Home is strengthened against earthquake

Libraries, wardrobes wallmounted

Having an emergency kit at home

Interviews with public Describing behaviour patterns of the users of transportation system in case of an emergency Step

3

Trust in media

During an emergency, people behave instantly. Thinking and planning before an emergency could increase the probability of taking the right decision during an emergency. Trust in authorities is another important factor to forecast behaviour pattern of public. If trust is high, most probable people follow the orders given by the authorities. The results of the survey show that trust in authorities is very low in Istanbul. People trust local authorities and head of neighbourhood more than Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and government. Moreover, almost 90% of the respondents do not trust the media

Trust in Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality

Interviews with public Describing behaviour patterns of the users of transportation system in case of an emergency Step

3

An evacuation plan must consider not only people who do not able to move due to physical or mental reasons. More than half of the respondents do not know where evacuate to. As an evacuation mode most of the respondents prefer to use their own cars or their neighbour cars. When considering the high percentage of car ownership in Istanbul, it is very clear that traffic congestion and fuel shortage could be main concerns in case of an emergency.

Knowing where to go, if it is needed to leave the city

Preferred transportation mode for evacuation

Having a place to meet arranged early with the family members in case of not being together during an earthquake

Interviews with public: General Results

•  Although public awareness of risk is very high, their preparedness level is very low.

•  Public knows about the campaigns, saw them in the media. But majority of them ignored this information.

•  People are strongly fatalistic.

•  Trust in official information providers is quite low.

Step 3

Part 5: Transportation system prone to earthquake risk

Why transportation system

Strongly interdependent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4

Título del gráfico

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3

Strongly interdependent Changing importance and function of transportation system according to the disaster phase


Requiring long repair times Long-term economic impacts because of long restoration times in comparison with other lifelines


Examples: 2005 Hurricane Katrina

Not organizing the evacuation plan according to needs of vulnerable population Not being able to understand and address reasons that discourage people from evacuating Not providing free transportation for non-‐drivers Not prioritizing traffic by providing public transportation modes during evacuation Not being able to see the volume of the traffic. Due to traffic jam in the entrance of the city people got stuck long hours on the road and emergency personnel and carriages with emergency equipment could not enter the city Fuel Shortage

Examples: 1995 Kobe Earthquake

The collapsed Hanshin express way, which connects Kobe and Osaka cities, made a tap effect on traffic. Due to traffic jam rescue activities were delayed Helicopters were used as a solution to traffic jam. However, noise of the helicopters hampered search and rescue teams who were trying to hear possible voices coming from the debris. Ports were destroyed and reconstruction of the ports took several months. Due to competition between ports, other ports in the region gained importance.

Problems are threefold

1.  Disregarding inter-dependency of components in a system

and inter-dependency among systems

2.  Disregarding indirect and multiple hazards

3.  Dealing with social structure as if it is separated from the

physical structure

What are the effects of the outcomes of decisions coming from organizational, tactical and public levels on the transportation system? Step

3

Emergency road network in case of a major event

Accessibility / What if the system fails?

How to enhance resilience of complex transportation system against disasters?

•  Failures or incidents during an emergency are emergent phenomena.

•  Outcome of actions, which are defined in the plan by regulations, could be different than anticipated due to constantly changing environment during disasters.

•  Disaster management related plans have to be supported by development plans. Otherwise provided solutions could be short-lived.

•  Flexible systems could be better than too much order in terms of providing resilience.

Conclusion

Flexibility in structural system

§  Providing flexible transportation system structure

§  Using the advantages of having diverse transportation modes

Flexibility in operational system (which includes organizational and tactical parts)

§  Disaster risk management plans have to be supported by development plans

§  Disaster risk management plans shall expect that the system can fail

§  The number of knowledgeable staff has to be increased systematically

§  Organizational differences among organizations involved in disaster risk management have to be considered in the plans.

§  The emergency plan should consider a contingency plan in case of scarcity of resources.

§  All kind of plans have to prepared by considering local characteristics

Flexibility in public

•  For achieving effective public understanding on the issue, drills must include participants from the public as well.

•  If the information is clear to public, they can be easily organized and adapt themselves to the changing situation.

Conclusion

How to enhance resilience of complex transportation system against disasters?

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