2010 fluvanna and lake monticello real estate year-in-review

8/7/2019 2010 Fluvanna and Lake Monticello Real Estate Year-in-Review

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Fluvanna & Lake MonticelloReal Estate Market Analysis

Data compiled and presented by:

Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed

86 Joshua LanePalmyra, VA 22963

434.589.5800AllAroundCharlottesville.com

2010-- Year in Review


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We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate MarketAnalysis. We sincerely hope that you will find the report both informative and valuable. There are a few thingsyou should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .

The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORSMultiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however,is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. Allof the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted.

The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License.

This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with properattribution to Strong Team REALTORS.

creative commons by attribution no derivatives

We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might find it valuable. If you have any

questions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of thereport, we are happy to help however we can. All you have to do is give us a call at 434-589-5800, orsend an email to [email protected]. You can also sign up for our regular email newsletterby visiting: http://StrongTeamNewsletter.com

Strong Team REALTORS
mailto:[email protected]://creativecommons.org/http://strongteamnewsletter.com/http://strongteamnewsletter.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://creativecommons.org/http://creativecommons.org/


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Introduction

Welcome to the latest edition of the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate MarketAnalysis. We know that comprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely criticalin order for you to make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, that

such information is often far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that.

This is the latest edition of our quarterly reports. Each report contains the vital data about the local realestate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know first-hand thatmarket data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power. Wewant to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the bestdecisions for them.

Everyone has a feeling about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will showyou a true picture of the local real estate market.

Scope of this report

The is our Year-in-Review report. That means that the data in this report covers the entire year of 2010,and compares it to all of 2009. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle,Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or LakeMonticello. This is done so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against theperformance of the region.



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Total Sales By Area

The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Areafor the first nine months of 2010. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total.

Contrary to what many people expected, sales in the Charlottesville area actually rose in 2010, comparedto 2009. The total number of sales in the area was 2% higher in 2010. While this isnt a huge increase, it iscertainly positive.

Every county in the Charlottesville area saw an increase in sales, with the exception of the City ofCharlottesville. Albemarle rose 2%, Fluvanna rose 12%, Greene rose 9%, and Nelson County rose awhopping 39%. Charlottesville, the lone loser in the area, saw sales fall by 18%.

As we move through the report, and look at the monthly sales statistics, it becomes obvious that much ofthis increase in sales can be attributed to the Homebuyer Tax Credit. It would appear that the tax creditdid achieve the goal of keeping the real estate market above water in our area in 2010.



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Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello

The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello during 2010 and 2009. In theprevious chart, both were included in the Fluvanna column. Since Lake Monticello is, by far, the largestsubdivision in Fluvanna and very unique compared to the rest of the county, it is worthwhile to examine itindividually, whenever possible.

Sales in Lake Monticello fell just slightly, with 3 less sales in 2010 than 2009. Sales in Fluvanna County,however, saw a big jump in 2010, increasing by 29%.

In what is a recurring theme for 2010, the Homebuyer Tax Credit was a major factor in both of thesestatistics. In particular, Fluvanna has benefited from a tremendous increase in new construction sales in2010. Most, although not all, of this activity was spurred by the tax credit and the incentives being offeredby builders.

Since there is very little new construction occurring in Lake Monticello, it did not experienced that samebump. That does not mean that the tax credit had no effect, however. The credit did much to bolster sales

during the Spring market, which is why Lake Monticello was nearly able to keep pace with 2009 salesnumbers.


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0

16

32

48

64

80

96

112

128

144

160

Fluvanna Co. ONLY Lake Monticello

Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales

2009 2010Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS


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Charlottesville Area Sales by Month

The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares themonthly-by-month totals from 2010 and 2009. This chart is important because it gives a picture of theentire year in such a way that we can see the fluctuations in sales from month-to-month.

As was mentioned earlier in this report, you can see what a tremendous impact the tax credit had on saleswhen you examine them on a monthly basis. The drop off from June to July was tremendous. Once thetax credit expired on June 30th, sales in the area ran into a brick wall, falling a whopping 40% below lastyears level in July. Usually, July is the peak of the selling season, and historically has the most closings. Thetax credit shifted much of that demand into the earlier months, and July numbers suffered greatly as aresult.

As we moved into the second half of the year, sales returned to earth, even falling below 2009 levels. Thearea did, however, end the year on a high note; with December 2010 sales significantly outperforming thesame month in 2009.


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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Charlottesville Area Sales by Month



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Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Sales by Month

The following two charts show the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but theinformation is limited to Fluvanna County (including Lake Monticello) on the first chart, and to Lake

Monticello (only) on the second chart.

In looking at the monthly numbers for Fluvanna and Lake Monticello, again the impact of the tax creditonce again becomes evident.

While numbers did drop in July, as they did throughout the area, they didnt drop so far as to besignificantly lower than July 2009 numbers. One of the reasons for this is that July 2009 was an

uncharacteristic month. Sales in July 2009 were lower in both Fluvanna and Lake Monticello that wasexpected.

The sales in both Fluvanna and Lake Monticello shared the same trend as the sales in the greaterCharlottesville area, with numbers falling behind those seen in 2009 during the second half of the year, butshowing a slight bump in December.



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0

8

17

25

33

42

50


Fluvanna Sales by Month



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0

4

8

12

16

20


Lake Monticello Sales by Month


M di P i b A



Median Price by Area

The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2010 is comparedto 2009, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY.

The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. Themedian price is a significant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. Thereason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales ateither extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore,considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market.

In 2009, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area was $262,540. In 2010, the median home price

in the Charlottesville Area fell to $259,500 (-1.2%). Results for the median price were mixed across theareas, with some seeing an increase, and others seeing a decrease. In all cases, however, the differencewasnt so extreme as to draw significant attention. These numbers suggest that the Charlottesville area hasonce again returned to a normal level of yearly appreciation/depreciation. This is just more confirmationthat the days of 5%-10% appreciation on a yearly basis are long gone.

Lake Monticello experienced a very slight increase (1%) in median home price.


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0

30,000

60,000

90,000

120,000

150,000

180,000

210,000

240,000

270,000

300,000

Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total

Median Price by Area

2009 2010* This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS



Days on Market by Area

The following chart shows the average Days on Market (DOM), broken down by area. It shows the averageDOM for the entire year of 2010. This chart also includes a column for Lake Monticello only.

DOM is a statistic that measures how many days a property is active in the MLS before it goes undercontract. The higher the number, the longer properties have remained on the market. Because of the waythe DOM statistic is calculated, there is always a possibility that the number does not actually reflect thetrue DOM for a property, but since it is the only measure we have, we rely upon it anyway. Typically, whenDOM isnt completely accurate, it is usually underestimating the true DOM of a property. So if the averageDOM for any area is inaccurate, you can safely assume that the number should be higher, not lower.

Of course, all of these numbers are averages. Some homes sell very quickly, in days or weeks, while othersremain on the market for months, or even a year or more.


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0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total

Days on Market by Area

2010*This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS



Inventory for Fluvanna & Lake Monticello

The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including LakeMonticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, theinventory was measured on the first day of each month. For example, as of January 1st of 2010, there were

301 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 127 of those were located in Lake Monticello.

The good thing about these charts is that the inventory of homes on the market is falling. It is possible,however, that we might see this number jump in 2011 as foreclosures begin to come on the market morefrequently in Lake Monticello and Fluvanna.


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275

288

300

313

325

338

350

363

375

388

400


Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month*

2009 2010

*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every monthStrong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS


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100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200


Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month*

2009 2010

*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every monthStrong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

S ld Li t P i Fl & L k M ti ll



Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello

The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties inFluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in 2010 and 2009. The Fluvanna columnincludes all homes, while Lake Monticello refers only to homes in Lake Monticello.

This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receivingwhen their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, andcompares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions,there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effectof inflating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, thepercentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly inflated.

Each percentage point represents $1000 per $100,000. So, if a $200,000 home sold for 96% of list price,the final contract price was $192,000. Fluvanna County home sellers definitely did better, compared to listprice, in the first nine months of 2010 than Lake Monticello sellers did. The reason for this is that many ofthe sales in Fluvanna County were new construction homes. Construction companies are usually better atanticipating the market, and adjusting their prices accordingly. Many regular sellers are reluctant to pricetheir homes lower, and they suffer the consequences as a result.

As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaningthat many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price atthe time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect toreceive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers andsellers should act accordingly.


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90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Fluvanna Lake Monticello ONLY

Sold Price vs. List Price (percentage)




Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats

The following chart refers to only waterfront homes and condos sold at Lake Monticello in 2010 and 2009.Included in the stats are only those homes and condos that were on the main lake. The chart shows theaverage price and the median price of waterfront homes sold.

There were significantly more waterfront sales so far in 2010 than there were in 2009 (20 vs. 12). Whilethere were more total sales in 2010, they sold for less on average ($452,544, or -7.5%) and had a lowermedian price ($429,500, or -3.5%) than what we saw in 2009.

There might be a good reason for both the increase in sales and the lower average and median price--

waterfront homes are being more accurately priced. While the prices being paid for waterfront homesmight be lower than it has been in the last few years, those prices are also at the point that moreaccurately meets demand, so more waterfront homes are being sold.

While waterfront inventory remains at historic highs, these numbers show that well-priced, high-qualitywaterfront homes are still in demand.

There is one thing worth noting that is not reflected in the data in the chart on the next page--waterfront homes sold for 94% of list price (average) in 2010. This reflects the difference in the list pricevs. the sold price at the time of the contract, not the original list price when the home originally went onthe market.


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0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Median Price Average Price

Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Statistics*

2009 2010

*Stats include homes and condos on the main lake. 20 sale in 2010, 12 sales in 2009Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

C l i


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Conclusion

The one thing that is crystal clear from the numbers in 2010 is that it will likely be known as the Year ofthe Tax Credit. The tax credit had a tremendous impact on sales in the area, which was the purpose forhaving it in the first place.

One thing that everyone in this market must accept is that the market we are currently experiencing islikely going to be with us for years, not months. Unless there is some kind of significant change in theoverall economy, where we are is where we can expect to be for the foreseeable future. This isntnecessarily a bad thing, as prices have become fairly stable, and sales are still occurring. Those who are ableto accept this reality first are the ones who have the greatest chance for success.

2011 will be a significant year in the Charlottesville area for two reasons-- the first is that there will be notax credit to bolster sales; the second is that we will likely experience more foreclosure sales in 2011. Thepotential impact of both of these factors is unknown, but they certainly bear watching.

You can rest assured that we will continue to watch the market closely in 2011, and you can count on us tokeep you updated and on top of all the changes and news you need to know.

Buyers and sellers should arm themselves with as much knowledge and information as possible, and makean effort not to ignore the market realities in favor of wishful thinking. Being grounded in reality and goodinformation provides the best opportunity for reaching your real estate goals.


Thank you


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Thank you

We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & LakeMonticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis bothinformative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may findit valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future marketanalyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected], or sign upfor our regular email newsletter at: http://StrongTeamNewsletter.com

It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary toachieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have aboutreal estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise wherever

it is needed. Please dont hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.

Strong Team REALTORS86 Joshua Lane

Palmyra, VA 22963434-589-5800

AllAroundCharlottesville.com
http://www.strongteamrealtors.com/http://www.strongteamrealtors.com/http://strongteamnewsletter.com/http://strongteamnewsletter.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

2010 fluvanna and lake monticello real estate year-in-review

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