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TRANSCRIPT
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Cincinnati, Ohio 2010
Mid-YearMarket Report
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Contents
Letter 2
Ofce Market 3
Industrial Market 8
Retail Market 14
Investment 21
Dear Colleagues,
We are Cassidy Turley.we are Cincinnati. As residents and business people, we
are dedicated to our region. We dont just work in our community; we actively belongto the community. Our associates are actively involved in many charitable and civic
organizations including The FreeStore Foodbank, United Cerebral Palsy o Cincinnati,
United Way and the Cincinnati Museum Center at Union Terminal. We meet regularly with
key business and community leaders and are involved in many proessional organizations
just a ew o them include the Urban Land Institute (ULI),The Society or Industrial and
Ofce Realtors (SIOR), NAIOP Commercial Real Estate Development Association, CCIM
Institute, Building and Owners Management Association (BOMA) and the University o
Cincinnati Real Estate Roundtable. We look or meaningul ways to promote Cincinnati as
a region o opportunity and growth.
Our commitment to the community is the oundation or how we conduct business. We
believe in ace-to-ace relationships and hands-on problem solving. Whether you are a
frm seeking space or an owner looking to fll space, we have the strategies and skills to
assist you. You can also rely on Cassidy Turley to help manage your properties according
to your individual goals and priorities.
You dont simply have to take our word or it. Midwest Real Estate News in its annual
Best o the Best rankings recently rated Cassidy Turley the #1 Property Management
frm and the #3 Brokerage frm in the Midwest.
These rankings reect our deep commitment to providing best in class services.
We recognize the importance o ocusing on the long-term success o our clients by
consistently being their advocate. Our combination o market intelligence and experiencehoned over many years enables us to deliver the integrated, tailored solutions our clients
are seeking. Beyond Cincinnati, Cassidy Turley can be ound in 57 other U.S. locations
and globally through our partnership with GVA Grimley.
We look orward to talking with you about our ull-range o services spanning Capital
Markets to Corporate Services to Project & Development Services, as well as, Leasing &
Tenant Representation.
In the ollowing pages, we share our independent research and fndings about the
Cincinnati market and a orecast o what we believe the uture holds.
Sincerely,
James A. Donlin
Managing Principal, Cincinnati/Dayton
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Cincinnati Ofce Market Vacancy By
Submarket Second Quarter 2010
Market Indicators
(Available or Lease)
Q2 2010 Q3 2010Forecast
Treading Water at Midpoint o 2010A sense o uncertainty about the speed
and depth o the economic recovery
process pervades the midpoint o 2010.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
rollercoasted rom 10,857 at the end
o Q1 to a high in April o 11,205
and ended Q2 at 9,774. The national
unemployment rate dipped to 9.5% in
June rom a high o 10.1% in October
2009 according to the Bureau o Labor
Statistics. However, the June rate is thesame seen in June 2009 and more than
twice the 4.6% in June 2007. Over 8
million (non-arm) jobs were lost in this
period o recession with only about 10%
regained since the beginning o the year.
For the local Cincinnati MSA there
is some good news. The preliminary
unemployment rate or May is estimated
at 9.7%, a noticeable decrease
rom the high o 10.9% recorded in
February. Private sector payrolls are
the permanent jobs driving demand or
commercial real estate. They increased
approximately 21,000 since January.
However, 70,000 more jobs would
need to be regained to reach the high
employment levels seen in 2007. The
Education and Health Services sector
had a preliminary employment fgure
in May o 149,200, the highest yet
seen. The ongoing expansion o health
acilities are positively contributing to
the local economy. The 45,000 SF Good
Samaritan Medical Center-Western Ridge
is opening in all 2010 and a 67,000 SF
medical ofce building is planned or
the Good Samaritan Hospital Campus
on Dixmyth Avenue. Christ Hospital
is seeking to expand its number o
outpatient sites and its acilities on theMount Auburn campus.
At the end o the second quarter
2010, the overall vacancy rate or the
Cincinnati market is 21.3%, a slight
increase rom the previous quarters
21.0% and above the 19.4% seen a
year ago. The overall net absorption
or the quarter is negative 122,000 SF
and year-to-date is negative 304,700
SF. Available sublease space remains
high at 611,000 SF. Taken together with
direct vacancy the availability rate is
23.2%. There are 31 existing buildings
in the market oering 50,000 SF and
more o contiguous space or a large
user. A signifcant portion o these large
blocks o space, 1.5 million SF, is in the
CBD market. That will increase by over
400,000 SF in 2011 when the Great
American Tower at Queen City Square is
completed and begins to draw tenants
out o other CBD buildings. Add to that
the 170,000 SF that remains to be flled
in the new building i no other preleasing
takes place.
Renewals and small leases
predominated this quarters ofce
transactions. Tenants are gaining
concessions on ree rent and tenant
improvements rom landlords struggling
to maintain occupancy. With no major
business closings oreseen, the vacancy
rate should remain airly stable. The
challenge or the Greater Cincinnati
market is attracting out-o-the-area
users needing large spaces. The low
cost o living, the vibrant arts scene and
excellent universities and hospitals are
positive inducements. The decline in the
number o domestic and international
Ofce Market
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ights in and out o Cincinnati/Northern
Kentucky International Airport and the
loss o major hub status is considered
a negative actor by large businesses.
However, in the ace o a struggling
national economy many companies are
putting large real estate decisions onthe back burner until a clearer picture
emerges.
CBD Market
The overall midyear vacancy rate or
the CBD market is 16.4%, up rom
the 15.8% seen at the end o the frst
quarter and 15.9% a year ago. The
vacancy rate or Class A properties is
13.6% relatively unchanged rom the
previous quarter but above the 12.9% o
a year ago. The vacancy rate or Class B
properties jumped to 18.9% rom 17.9%
at the end o the frst quarter and is
above 18.4% seen a year ago.
Porter Wright Morris & Arthur LLP
expanded to 20,000 SF rom 16,700 SF
and renewed its lease on space on the
22nd oor in the Chiquita Center at 250
East Fith Street. Northcreek Mezzanine
Fund I LP subleased 3,700 SF on the
30th oor in the 528,000 SF Chemed
Center at 255 East Fith Street.
The CBD market, and particularly theClass A submarket will experience a
major shit when the 825,000 SF Great
American Tower at Queen City Square
on Sycamore and East Fourth Street is
completed in 2011. This will become
the newest and tallest building in the
downtown Cincinnati skyline. Great
American Insurance will vacate its ofces
in the 525 Vine and 580 Buildings into
540,000 SF, leaving over 400,000 SF o
vacant space in the CBD market. FrostBrown Todd preleased 100,000 SF and
will add signifcant availability to the
PNC Center building when it relocates in
2011.
The amount o available Class B
downtown product may be shrinking.
Plans to sell the 232,000 SF Bartlett
Building ell through. Then it wentdark when Duke Energy unplugged
the electrical supply orcing the ew
remaining tenants to relocate. Fith Third
Bank is deciding whether to proceed
with oreclosure. The lack o upkeep
and aging mechanics o the physical
structure are viewed as detriments to a
quick turn-around or tenant occupancy.
The 122,000 SF 14-story Fourth &
Race Tower, ormer home o the Federal
Reserve, won $2.5 million in OhioHistoric Preservation Tax Credits to oset
part o the $20.2 million cost to convert
the nine upper oors to 88 residential
apartments. Ashley Development is
negotiating with the owner to purchase
the building.Taken together this may
bring some relie to other Class B
property owners and tighten the market
or this subset o properties.
Burke, Inc. relocated out o 52,000 SF
in the 183,000 SF Centennial Plaza II
at 805-813 Central Avenue to its new
headquarters at 500 West Seventh
Street. The City o Cincinnati Fire
Department plans to move into 24,000
SF o that space. Veterans Aairs-The
Ofces o Quality & Saety took 7,000
SF in the 235,000 SF Textile Building at
205-209 West Fourth Street.
Renovations were fnally completed
on the 36,000 SF ormer ST Media
building at 700 Broadway. KZF
Design purchased the building in
November 2008 and moved into its new
headquarters in June.
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Total Class A Class B
Suburban Market
Currently the overall vacancy rate or the
Suburban ofce market is 24.5%, close
to the 24.2% in the previous quarter but
signifcantly higher than the 21.7% a
year ago. The vacancy rate or Class A
buildings remained at at 22.9% while
Class B buildings edged higher to 27.2%
rom the previous quarters 26.5%. The
second quarter contributed a negative
48,000 SF to the total year-to-date net
absorption o negative 189,000 SF.
The Midtown market vacancy rate went
to 24.9% rom 22.0% in the previous
quarter. Both Class A and Class B
vacancy rates trended upward to 26.2%
and 23.3% respectively.
Administar moved out o 46,000 SF and
now the 72,800 SF Holiday Ofce Park
801-A building is completely vacant. The
departure o KZF Design rom 30,000 SF
contributed to the 63% vacancy rate orthe 241,000 SF Grand Baldwin on Eden
Park Drive. Renaissance Investment
Management let 14,500 SF in the
216,000 SF Baldwin 200 or 9,700
SF in the 280,000 SF RiverCenter I in
Covington.
On a positive note Strayer University
leased 16,000 SF in the 66,000 SF
Keystone Parke building built two
years ago on Dana Avenue and thebuilding has reached 50% occupancy.
Burke, Inc. moved into its 100,000 SF
corporate headquarters on a seven-acre
campus at 500 West Seventh Street
in June. The company had acquired
the original 78,000 SF ormer ADP
building at the end o 2008 or $6.25
million and expanded and renovated it.
Grand opening celebrations were held
or the newly completed 50,000 SF
Headquarters and Disaster Operations
Center or the Cincinnati Region o the
American Red Cross constructed in the
Keystone Parke ofce complex.
Construction on the 132,000 SF
headquarters or Medpace, Inc.
at Red Bank and Madison Roads
in Madisonville is on schedule or
completion in October. The company
will be vacating approximately 160,000
SF on Wesley Avenue in Norwood at
that time. Renovation o the ormer
Vernon Manor Hotel at 400 Oak Street
into 156,000 SF or research and
back ofce operations or CincinnatiChildrens Hospital Medical Center is
another signifcant development project
in the submarket. To relieve its space
situation on its main campus on Vine
Street, Veterans Aairs is building a
25,000 SF medical center on Highland
Avenue between Rochelle and Donahue
Streets in Corryville. The Urology Group
is working on the fnancing needed to
build a new 45,000 SF headquarters in
Norwood. It has already been approved
or $14 million in tax-exempt bonds
or the $15 million project. 4.2 acres
on Section Avenue in Norwood were
acquired in March or $1.5 million.
When completed, the group would be
vacating 40,000 SF on Smith Road in
the Central Parke complex. A 67,000 SF
medical ofce building is in the planning
stages or the Good Samaritan Hospital
campus on Dixmyth Avenue in Cliton.
The Kenwood market continues to be
the strongest suburban market with an
overall vacancy rate o 8.2% a signifcant
decrease rom the 9.6% in the previousquarter and 12.6% a year ago.
It remains unclear when the nine-story
270,000 SF ofce tower portion o
Kenwood Towne Place, a mixed-use
project o 600,000 SF with 300,000 SF
o retail on two oors will be completed.
It is currently in receivership and Kroger
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Kenwood Market
The 46,400 SF Kenwood
Commons II building on
Montgomery Road added
CarePoint Partners to its
tenant roster.
recently shuttered its supermarket on theground oor. Plans or the FBI campus
on the southeast side o I-71 and
Montgomery Road took a step orward
with the naming o a new developer,
The Molasky Group o Companies, and
its purchase o the 6.3 acres in June
or $4.7 million. The $50 million project
includes a our-story ofce building,
a two-story garage and a one-story
maintenance building and should be
fnished in the latter part o 2011. Thismay give impetus to Neyer Properties
Kenwood Towers planned or the
adjacent acreage. The mixed-use project
would include a seven-story 160-room
hotel, a nine-story 266,000 SF ofce
tower and fve-story parking garage.
The 46,150 SF Kenwood Commons I on
Montgomery Road saw Atos Origin renew
its lease on 14,000 SF on the frst oor.
CarePoint Partners took 7,300 SF in the
Kenwood Commons II building.
The Blue Ash market saw vacancy
decrease rom 21.2 % in the frst quarter
to the current 19.7%. A year ago it
was 16.5%. Known or its landscaped
campuses o ofce buildings with easily
accessible parking and location near
prime residential areas, it remains one o
the prime suburban submarkets.
Full Service Networking leased 6,700SF in The Landings o Blue Ash II, a
175,000 SF fve-story building, on Carver
Road. In September Sunny Delight will
relocate rom 22,500 SF in the 42,000
SF Lake Forest Pointe I to 36,146 SF
in the 162,000 SF Peier Place. The
100,000 SF Kemper Pointe building saw
Sorenson Communications, Inc. renew
and expand into 4,900 SF. Fountain
Pointe I, a 95,300 SF ofce building, had
Mutual o Omaha Insurance recommit
to its space and Financial Management
Group take 4,900 SF.
At 30.3% vacancy the Tri-County
submarket is holding steady rom the
previous quarter. A year ago the vacancy
rate was 21.0% and the area is still
reeling rom the departure o GE Aviation
rom 305,000 SF on Merchant Street or
its 413,000 SF campus in West Chester.
Devicor Medical Products Inc. recently
acquired the breast care business o
Ethicon Endo-Surgery Inc. and ound
a home or its new company that will
operate under the name o Mammotome
in Sharonville. It leased 29,900 SF on
the top oor o the 5-story 150,000
SF Summit Woods II on E-Business
Way. Staples Commercial & Contract,
Inc. leased 5,400 SF in the 52,800
SF Century Ofce Center on Century
Boulevard in Springdale.
Dynamic Sight dba Kinetic Vision
acquired an acre in the Evendale
Commons Development on Glendale-
Milord Road or a 10,000 SF build-to-
suit ofce/lab building. It should be
completed by second quarter 2011.
The East submarket vacancy rate rose
to 25.0% rom the previous quarters
24.0%. The 475,000 SF o Class A
properties had a vacancy rate o 15.4%
as compared to 32.0% or the 644,000
SF o Class B properties.
Kellogg Sales Co. recommitted to its
14,700 SF in the 120,000 SF Woodside
Center on Tri-Ridge Boulevard in
Loveland. Wellington Orthopaedic &
Sports Medicine renewed and expanded
rom 10,900 SF to 18,800 SF in the
54,900 SF Eastgate Commerce Center
on GlenEste-Withamsville Road in
Eastgate. Visiting Physicians Association
opened its third ofce in the Greater
Cincinnati region in 3,500 SF in the
51,800 SF Eastgate Proessional
Ofce Park on Aicholtz Drive in Union
Township.
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Greater Cincinnati Ofce Market Summary Second Quarter 2010
Submarket Inventory (SF) Vacancy Net Absorption YTD (SF) New Deliveries YTD (SF) Under Construction (SF)
CBD 12,584,000 16.4% (116,000) 0 825,000
Blue Ash 4,019,000 19.7% 14,000 0 0
Kenwood 986,000 8.2% 16,000 0 270,000
Mason 2,641,000 28.3% (190,000) 0 0
Midtown 3,527,000 24.9% (74,000) 0 0
NKY 3,057,000 29.0% (63,000) 0 83,000
Tri-County 2,667,000 30.3% 93,000 0 0
West Chester 1,349,000 12.3% 23,000 0 0
East 1,119,000 25.0% (4,000) 0 0
West 466,000 46.0% (4,000) 0 0
Total 32,415,000 21.3% (305,000) 0 1,178,000
Outlook
A lack o large user deals on the
positive side and urther closures on
the negative side will keep the market
in neutral this year. Commercial real
estate is considered a lagging indicator
in an economic recovery. Shadow space
underutilized by companies must be
flled frst with rehires beore expansion
is considered. It is expected that without
much momentum in the economy
in 2010, the market will ace greater
challenges in 2011 as signifcant ofce
constructions are completed and large
blocks o space become vacant as leases
come due.
The growth taking place in the Cincinnati
market is in the specialized subsectoro medical use properties. As noted,
hospitals and medical groups are
actively expanding and building and are
a positive actor in regional employment.
How this will impact the general ofce
market on a broader and deeper basis is
unknown.
The appeal o lower rent rates, ree rent
and increased tenant improvement
dollars are ueling what leasing is
done. Building values continue to be
depressed as a result.
How the new Financial Accounting
Standards Board (FASB) accountingrules to be enacted in 2013 concerning
the recording o leases on company
balance sheets may aect uture leasing
and renewal options and choices
whether to lease or buy is a conundrum
waiting to be sorted out.
Nevertheless the image o the Cincinnati
MSA as a dynamic and attractive region
reects the diversity o its businesses,
presence o Fortune 500 companyheadquarters, cutting edge educational
institutions and lively arts scene. The city
o Cincinnati was recently designated a
Hub o Innovation and Opportunity by
the State o Ohio and will receive unding
to position itsel as a national leader
in consumer marketing. Leveraged
as opportunities or development by
compounding the synergy o the local
branding companies and universities,
this may be a growth path or the region.
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Greater Cincinnati Industrial Market Summary Q2 2010
Quadrant Inventory (SF) Vacancy Net Absorption YTD (SF) New Deliveries YTD (SF) Projected Construction or 2010 (SF)
CENTRAL 78,483,000 10.5% 534,000 33,000 58,000
NORTHEAST 29,280,000 8.4% 120,000 58,000 57,000
NORTHWEST 104,587,000 11.2% (24,000) 31,000 137,000
NORTHERN KY 60,824,000 7.5% 704,000 0 282,000
TOTAL 273,174,000 9.9% 1,334,000 122,000 534,000
Market Indicators
Maintaining the Progress Made
A slow healing rather than a vigorous
recovery seems to be the ate o
the national economy. The national
unemployment rate dipped to 9.5% in
June rom a high o 10.1% in October
2009 according to the Bureau o Labor
Statistics. Yet the rate is the same as a
year ago and more than twice the 4.6%
in June 2007. Layos are occurring but
not to the extent seen in 2009. Losing
hope about ever fnding a job has ledmany to quit searching or go the route
o early retirement. The GDP increased
at an annual rate o 2.7% in the frst
quarter o 2010 sustaining positive
growth since the third quarter o 2009.
It has, however, slowed rom the 5.6%
seen in the ourth quarter o 2009. The
Federal Reserve noted that industrial
production advanced 1.2% in May ater
an increase o 0.7% in April. There
have been three months o consistentgrowth. In the June 2010 Manuacturing
ISM Report on Business, the national
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) stood
at 56.2, lower than the high o 60.4 in
April. Although the index has been over
50 or the past eleven months indicating
expansion, the uctuation may warn o a
slowing or uneven rate o growth.
For the local Cincinnati MSA there
is good news. The preliminary
unemployment rate or May is estimatedat 9.7%, a noticeable decrease rom the
high o 10.9% recorded in February.The
latest preliminary fgures or employment
in manuacturing were at 108,700 in
May, the highest numbers in 13 months.
The Cincinnati PMI or June retreated
to 59.5 rom 62.6 in May as reported
by the Applied Research Institute,
Department o Economics, University o
Cincinnati and NAPM-Cincinnati. This
parallels the national trend o continuedbut slowing growth o the economy. The
local index has been above 50 or the
sixth consecutive month.
The Cincinnati industrial market
experienced modest improvement in Q2
2010 when it saw its frst dip in vacancy
to 9.9% rom 10.3% in the previous
quarter. This is still above the 9.5% o
a year ago, but shows movement in the
right direction. Another encouraging
sign was net absorption or the second
quarter at a positive 1.09 million SF
bringing the year-to-date total to 1.33
million SF. Only the Northeast quadrant
saw a slight increase in its vacancy rate
rom 7.9% in the frst quarter to 8.4%.
Gross absorption or Q2 was 2.2 million
SF.
Closures are still occurring but with
less requency. At the end o this year
Industrial Market
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Greater Cincinnati Industrial Market
Zumbiel Packaging will begin moving
out o its 198,000 SF acility on Harris
Avenue in Norwood to a 180,000 SF
newly constructed plant on its 30-acre
campus in Hebrons Gateway Industrial
Park. The doors are closing or Overhead
Door Corporations 128,000 SF plant onWest 43rd Street in Covington later this
year.
State and local fnancial incentives
have contributed to job retention and
creation and enticements to locate
within the Greater Cincinnati region.
General Electric Company in Evendale
was the recipient o a $1 million Rapid
Outreach Grant or the purchase o new
equipment insuring retention o 5,000jobs. E-BEAM Services, Inc. received a
45 percent job creation tax credit and
plans to double the size o its plant on
Henkle Drive in Lebanon. Pennsylvania-
based Keystone Foods is searching or a
200,000 SF processing and distribution
site to lease in Northern Kentucky or
Cincinnati. The state o Ohio awarded
the company a $760,149 job creation
tax credit to lure it to the Cincinnati area
since it would create 239 new jobs.
Sugar Creek Packing Co. on Muhlhauser
Road in West Chester is receiving a
$20,000 Rapid Outreach Grant or the
acquisition o new equipment. This willretain 75 jobs and create 50 new ones.
Improvement in transportation
inrastructure is ongoing. Superstreet
intersections along the State Route 4Bypass corridor will be constructed
at Tylersville Road, Hamilton Mason
Road and Symmes Road. These are the
frst to be built in Ohio and will reduce
travel time up to 90 percent through
the intersections. Norolk Southern will
extend its Heartland Corridor line rom
Columbus to Cincinnati. The Ohio Rail
Development Commission recently
granted permission or improvements
needed or double stack clearance.
The amount o construction has
dwindled tremendously. In 2009 about
1.3 million SF o build-to-suit, spec and
expansions were built. To date in 2010
only 122,000 SF has been completed.
There is approximately 300,000 SF
scheduled or the latter hal o the
year. Fiscally strong companies are
taking advantage o lower construction
costs to add more square ootage to
already existing acilities or erecting new
buildings that accommodate updated
equipment, procedures and expanding
customer markets. Work on Graeters
new 24,600 SF plant in Bond Hill should
Northeast Quadrant
E-BEAM Services wants
to double its size to
approximately 128,000
SF on Henkle Drive in
Lebanon.
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Signifcant Bulk Transactions in Q2 2010
Quadrant Name o Building SF o Building Tenant Type o Transaction SF o Transaction
NKY Hebron II 598,000 HK Systems Lease 598,000
NW ProLogis Park Fairfeld 400,200 Cornerstone Brands Renewal 400,200
NW Sharonville Distribution Center #2 380,000 Palmer-Donavin Manuacturing Co. Lease 234,400
NKY Airpark International Distribution Center 5 396,000 Innotrac Corporation Renewal 198,000
NW Northpark Business Center V 180,000 Intelligrated Lease 81,000
NKY Park West International P 159,440 Exel Logistics Expansion 80,090
NKY Park West International P 159,440 Exel Logistics Renewal 79,350
NW West Chester Commerce Park #3 148,800 Dedicated Logistics Renewal 70,700
NW Williams Transport Logistics 120,000 Diversapack, Inc. Lease 60,400
NE Distribution Center II 176,800 Power & Telephone Supply Renewal 40,000
Greater Cincinnati Bulk Warehouse Marketbe completed next quarter. It will allowthe company to compete on a national
basis and boost ice cream production
to one million gallons annually. A 9,000
SF addition is under construction on
Dickerson Distributing Co.s 35,000
SF building in Monroe. Also due to be
completed is the 56,000 SF expansion
o the 150,000 SF Skidmore Sales
& Distributing Company building in
West Chester. The project includes the
construction o 10 additional docks.Parkway Products Inc. plans to expand
its 55,700 SF acility in Erlanger on
Jamike Avenue to 110,200 SF. U.S.
Worldwide Logistics, Inc. is adding
42,000 SF to its 85,000 SF building in
Hebrons Airpark International Business
Park. Southern Graphic Systems Inc. will
expand its 61,500 SF acility in Florence
by 5,000 SF.
Bulk WarehouseBulk vacancy in Q2 2010 was 16.5%
as compared to 17.6% last quarter and
16.8% a year ago. There was positive
net absorption o 629,000 SF, a positive
trend that started in the previous quarter.
The growth in manuacturing production
and retail spending is giving momentum
to bulk space absorption.
Most o the major transactions in the
second quarter were concentrated in
the Northwest and Northern Kentucky
quadrants. They lie on the major north-
south transportation corridor o I-75
making them attractive distribution
hubs. The Northwest quadrant saw
vacancy drop to 21.4% rom 22.4% in
the previous quarter. A year ago it was
20.6%. The vacancy rate in the Northern
Kentucky quadrant ell to 10.8% rom
12.3% last quarter and 13.6% a year
ago. The lowest vacancy rate in recent
history was 7.2% seen in the frst quarter
o 2007.
Expect new bulk construction only ater
signifcant absorption o the current 2.8
million SF vacant in the 7.2 million SF
built in 2007 and later has occurred.
Net eective rates or modern Class A
product in the bulk sector at $2.70/SF/
NNN continue to be at. Class B and
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Greater Cincinnati Ofce/Warehouse Market
Signifcant Ofce/Warehouse Transactions in Q2 2010
Quadrant Name o Building SF o Building Tenant Type o Transaction SF o Transaction
NKY Airpark Business Center B 146,000 Leslie's Poolmart, Inc. Renewal 146,000
NW The Pointe at Union Centre B 76,800 Ellison Technologies, Inc. Lease 10,800
NKY Airport Business Center-B 57,647 American Power Services Renewal 10,500
NW Capital Center I, Industrial Ctr 10 22,600 Automatic Equipment Corporation Renewal 10,000
NKY Donaldson Rd Center I-B 66,300 Jackson MSC Lease 7,800
NW Capital Center I, Industrial Ctr 7 22,325 Camp Hill Industries Renewal 5,700
Class C bulk warehouse are around$2.25/SF/NNN*.
Several bulk acilities ound new investor
owners in the second quarter. The 1.2
million SF Gateway 75 originally built
as a distribution acility or Montgomery
Ward was acquired by Neyer Properties
or $7.8 million. The building was 84%
vacant at the time o purchase. The
new owner will install solar panels,
new loading docks on the west side as
well as ood control eatures to attract
new tenants. Two Prologis buildings
on Fairfeld Business Drive totaling
196,800 SF were acquired by Road
Bay Investments LLC or $5.2 million.
Duke Realty sold its 400,000 SF acility
on Hamilton-Lebanon Road to The
Hollingsworth Companies or $7.0
million. Xerox has a long-term lease on
the entire building.
Ofce/Warehouse
The vacancy rate or ofce/warehouse
buildings in Q2 2010 continued to rise
to 18.4% rom 17.1% last quarter and is
above the 17.7% o a year ago. The net
absorption or the second quarter was
(188,000) SF. The vacancy rates range
rom 12.3% in the Central quadrant
to 21.5% in the Northern Kentucky
quadrant.
With vacancy rates trending upward
or this property type, new construction
starts are not anticipated in the near
uture.
Net eective lease rates or the ofce/
warehouse sector were around $4.25/
SF/NNN*.
Freestanding
The vacancy rate o 7.1% in Q2 2010 or
reestanding buildings is the lowest or
all property types. This was a slight dip
rom 7.4% in the previous quarter but
above the 6.6% vacancy rate o a year
ago. There was a positive net absorption
o 648,000 SF in the second quarter and
a total o 776,000 SF or the frst hal
o 2010. The vacancy rates range rom
2.4% in the Northern Kentucky quadran
to 9.8% in the Central quadrant.
This quarter saw the completion o about
24,500 SF o new construction. Dynamic
Controls building on Symmes Road in
Hamilton doubled in size to 25,400 SFwith its addition. A 12,500 SF build-to-
suit was completed or Tramonte and
Sons on Welden Drive in Mason.
Several properties are acing
redevelopment. XTRA Lease acquired
the Keidel complex o three buildings
totaling about 128,000 SF situated on
18.63 acres or $1.7 million. The new
owners intend to demolish the
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Greater Cincinnati Freestanding Market
Signifcant Freestanding Transactions in Q2 2010
Quadrant Name o Building SF o Building Tenant/Buyer Type o Transaction SF o Transaction
NW Clark Steel Framing 232,000 McGraw/Kokosing, Inc. Sale 232,000
NW Former Anderson Logistics 140,000 Spartan Logistics Lease 140,000
CEN Former Husman Factory 129,000 Christian Moerlein Brewing Co. Lease 129,000
NW 10121 Princeton-Glendale Road 91,800 Tropicana Renewal 91,800
CEN 4057 Clough Woods Drive 57,351 QC Industries Sale 57,351
NW Weyerhaeuser Co. 48,049 Rudd Equipment Sale 48,049
CEN Hill Floral Products 37,706 Nehemiah Manuacturing Sale 37,706
NW Worthy Cartage Co. 22,618 TNT Trucking Sale 22,618
CEN 500 Kent Road 20,870 Plumb Properties o Clermont County Sale 20,870
CEN 8686 Southwest Parkway 20,250 3S Incorporated Sale 20,250
buildings and use the site or tractor-
trailer parking. An 8,500 SF building
will also be erected. A $3 million Clean
Ohio Revitalization grant will acilitate the
brownfeld cleanup o the ormer Kahns
pork processing plant at 3241 Spring
Grove Avenue in Camp Washington. The
568,000 SF plant will be demolished
and the 17-acres site remediated. Micro
Metal Finishing LLC plans to purchase
three acres to construct a $3 million
80,000 SF plant. The company has a
64,742 SF acility at 3448 Spring Grove
Avenue. Hamilton County, the current
owners o the site, will sell the rest o the
acreage to Vestige Development Group
or industrial/ofce redevelopment.
Land
The volume o land sales geared
to industrial construction has been
minimal since the economic downturn
began. It is expected that once there is
sustainable growth, development will
begin anew. Those sites near improved
inrastructures will be most attractive.
In Monroe, Corridor 75, a 429-acredevelopment, is positioned midway
between Dayton and Cincinnati. The
site can accommodate 6.2 million SF
o industrial buildings. A nearby single-
point urban interchange (SPUI) provides
easy access to I-75, a major truck route.
The 48-acre Sharonville Commerce
Center at Partnership Way in Sharonville
will be home to Kutol Product Company
150,000 SF headquarters. There is room
or six additional reestanding or ofce/
warehouse buildings.
MetroWest is an 18-acre site at Gest and
West 8th Street in Lower Price Hill that
can support 250,000 SF o space. The
14 acres at 601 Reading Road are ready
or development into the Reading Lie
Sciences Campus.
Florence has 28 acres available at
Vulcan Drive while Erlanger has 54 acresin its Circleport Park near the Dolwick
Connector Road zoned or industrial
use. IDIs Park South in Richwood
and Prologis Park 275 in Hebron can
accommodate bulk warehouse projects
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Outlook
The weakness or strength o the
economy is reected in commercial real
estate activity. The industrial market
may be starting on the upward portion
o the recovery cycle, mirroring that o
economy. However, there is a realization
that the recovery will be slow and ftul
at best.
As more positive signs arise in the
economy, tenants will be pressed to
negotiate the best deals possible beore
there is a shit in their bargaining
position.
The amount o tenant incentives will
decrease as the market tightens and
vacancy decreases. Shorter terms are
preerred by landlords hoping to capture
upside growth in the recovery.
Investment groups that have raised
money are entering the market buyingup properties with good potential
or fnancially strong long term lease
tenants. Cash needy owners may be
orced to sell properties in order to hold
on to their more lucrative holdings.
Speculative construction will occuronly when a sizeable amount o vacant
space has been backflled and a vibrant
dynamic economy is reestablished.
*(Note: Rates are based on a sample o
comparable data gathered by Cassidy
Turley. Renewals are not included in the
analysis.)
INDUSTRIAL TERMS AND DEFINITIONS
Inventory:Industrial inventory includes all
multi-tenant, single tenant and owner occupied
buildings.
Industrial Buildings Classifcations: Industrial
buildings are categorized as bulk warehouse,
ofce/warehouse and reestanding based on
their physical characteristics including percent
ofce build-out, clear height, typical bay depth,
typical suite size, type o loading and typical
uses.
Vacancy and Availability: The vacancy rate is
the amount o physically vacant space divided
by the inventory. The availability rate is the
amount o space available or lease divided by
the inventory.
Net Absorption: The net change in physically
occupied space over a period o time.
Asking Rent: The dollar amount asked by
landlords or available space expressed in
dollars per square oot per year in most parts
o the country, and dollars per square oot per
month in areas o Caliornia and selected other
markets. Industrial rents are expressed as triple
net where all costs including but not limited to,
real estate taxes, insurance and common area
maintenance are borne by the tenant on a pro
rata basis. The asking rent or each building
in the market is weighed by the amount o
available space in the building.
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Highlights
Changes in the
Supermarket Sector
Struggling Malls
CBD Dynamics
Fast Food Popularity
Investment Sales Rise
Retail Outlook
OHIO
KENTUCKY
INDIANA
Cincinnati
1. Kenwood2. Tri-County
3. Eastgate/Milord4. Colerain
5. Western Hills6. Hyde Park
7. CBD/Cliton
8. Fairfeld/Forest Park9. Anderson
10. Mason/Deerfeld Twp.11. Hamilton/West Chester
12. Lebanon13. Middletown/Springboro14. Florence
15. Hebron/Burlington16. Independence
17. Crestview Hills18. Newport/Bellevue
19. Covington/Ft. Wright20. Campbell County21. Southeast Indiana
Signifcant Submarkets in the Cincinnati Retail Region
11
13
12
10
2
4
8
1
6
3
9
7
1819
5
1517
2014
21
16
I-75
I-71
I-74
I-71I-75
I-275
I-275
I-75
The Cincinnati retail market is
comprised o Boone, Campbell andKenton counties in northern Kentucky,
Hamilton, Butler, Clermont and Warren
counties in southwestern Ohio and
Dearborn and Franklin counties in
southeastern Indiana. Within this area
are 13 signifcant submarkets in Ohio, 7
in northern Kentucky and 1 in southeast
Indiana.
Greater Cincinnati is a growth area with a
total population o over 2 million peopleand is the 24th largest MSA in the
nation. It is the headquarters location or
the Fortune 500 retail giants, Procter &
Gamble, Kroger and Macys.
Supermarkets
The supermarket sector in greater
Cincinnati saw signifcant changes
Retail Market
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biggs
The 157,600 SF anchor o
Governors Point South on
Mason-Montgomery Road
in Mason was acquired by
Remke Markets.
in the frst hal o 2010. The leadingsupermarket company in the region,
Kroger, has embarked on an ambitious
expansion and renovation program. In
Harrison, construction was completed
in March on a 116,432 SF Marketplace
replacing a 56,000 SF building. A
61,000 SF ormer Thritway store Kroger
acquired when Winn-Dixie let the
market at The Shops at Harpers Point
in Symmes Township was expanded to
106,000 SF to include specialty areasor Murrays Cheese, a restaurant and
an olive and antipasto bar. The 56,000
SF store anchoring Fort Mitchells
Expressway Plaza on Dixie Highway will
be expanded to 104,000 SF and will
reopen with gas pumps in the latter part
o this year. In the planning stages is
a 70,000 SF store, to replace one hal
the size, in the Short Vine district o
Corryville.
SUPERVALU, aced with declining
profts with the entry o Meijer and
Wal-Marts grocery departments to
the region, opted to close fve biggs
in Harrison, Colerain Township, West
Chester, Florence and the original store
in Union Township. The remaining
stores in Columbia Township, Westwood,
Anderson Township, Oakley, Mason
and Delhi Township were acquired by
Erlanger-based Remke Markets which is
supplied by SUPERVALU. The purchase
boosted the number o locations or the
local supermarket chain to thirteen. The
Mason store may be scaled back rom
157,600 SF to 65,000 SF to match the
size o its sister stores.
As part o its expanding ootprint across
the U.S. without merger or acquisition,
ALDI plans to open 80 stores in 2010.
Deerfeld Townships Montgomery
Crossing shopping center at Fields Ertel
and Montgomery Roads is now anchored
by a 19,200 SF ALDI that opened in
April.
Movie Theatres
In its bid to become the fth-largest
movie theatre chain in the US by box
ofce sales and number o screens,
Rave Cinemas LLC acquired 29 locations
rom National Amusements. Locally the
purchase included ormer Showcase
theatres in Kings Island, Milord and
Western Hills.
Malls
Older malls have allen victim to the
tightened fnancial atmosphere and have
seen their share join the distressed
asset list o properties. The 1.1 million
SF Northgate Mall built in 1972 in
Colerain Township is in deault o its $82
million loan. The closure o its anchor,
Dillards, at the end o 2009, earlier
relocation o JC Penney to another
nearby location, a 40% vacancy rate
and contingency clauses in the other
retailers leases requiring the presence
o three anchors have actored into
the owners inability to meet its loan
payments.
The Bear Creek developments at
Kenwood Towne Place and NewportPavilion are at a standstill. Deault
judgments are being sought and liens
surround these projects. Kenwood
Towne Place, a mixed-use development
with 336,885 SF o retail space has
been in limbo since late 2008. Kroger
Fresh Fare shuttered its doors in May.
Although Kroger did open at Newport
Pavilion, incomplete site preparation
and non-payment to contractors delayed
the construction o a Target store. It iscurrently scheduled to break ground in
July.
The recent closure o Krazy City, a
50,000 SF amusement park that
replaced JC Penney a little over two
years ago as an anchor or the 1.29
million SF Tri-County Mall at the I-275
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Broadway Commons
A 400,00-500,000 SF
casino and entertainment
center will be developed on
23 acres currently used as a
downtown parking lot.*
*Image courtesy of
Downtown Cincinnati, Inc.
and I-75 intersection only added to the
woes o Coventry Real Estate Advisors,
the owners. They are currently in deault
on a $153 million CMBS loan on Tri-
County Mall and are in litigation with the
lender and DDR, ormer managers o
the property. Coventry is in litigation with
DDR on eleven additional properties.
Together with co-tenancy concerns and
a 19% vacancy rate, difculties are
mounting or the troubled mall.
Built in 2001 and sold in 2005 or $20
million, the 145,800 SF Union Centre
Pavilion in West Chester is acing
oreclosure because the current owner
has deaulted on its $16 million note.
Leasing activity has ailed to materialize
at the 1.5 million SF Cincinnati Mall inForest Park. It was acquired in March by
Cincinnati Holding Co., LLC at a fre sale
price o $5.9 million. The Guess Factory
Store and Showcase Cinemas were the
latest tenants to close shop. Bass Pro
Shops lease is coming up or renewal
and its potential departure would put
the malls retail uture in jeopardy. Other
commercial uses may be explored to fll
the dark space.
Kenwood
The premiere retail submarket in the
region, Kenwood, continues to be a
hub or suburban activity at I-71 and
Montgomery Road. New additions to
the tenant roster o the 1.2 million SF
Kenwood Towne Centre are Aroma
Sushi and Spencer Gits. Anthropologie
leased the 11,000 SF ormer west elm
spot near Nordstrom. Although the
Showcase Cinema closed at Kenwood
Town Centre and the space backflled
by H&M, a replacement or movie goers
has landed right next door. Opening in
the all is an eight-screen theatre flling
the 28,000 SF vacated by Henredon and
Drexel Heritage Furniture in the 74,000
SF Kenwood Place on Kenwood Road.
In the 391,000 SF Sycamore Crossing
and Sycamore Plaza, Ulta, a salon and
beauty shop, took the 9,862 SF ormer
Rack Room space. While Cincinnati
Bell doubled its size to 5,000 SF in
the JoS. A. Bank Center on Kenwood
Road, Verizon Wireless moved into the7,000 SF reestanding building at 7790
Montgomery Road in ront o Trader
Joes. Mattress Firm plans to relocate
rom Kenwood Place into 4,000 SF
in a strip center anchored by Urban
Active on Montgomery Road. Willies
Sports Ca moved across the street
into 7,500 SF in the 26,500 SF ormer
Gentry building on East Galbraith and
the Great American Restaurant opened
in the 5,346 SF space it vacated at 8740Montgomery Road.
CBD/Uptown
The dynamics o the central business
district retail market will be signifcantly
enhanced by several major projects
underway.
Michigan-based Rock Ventures LLC
acquired 23 acres in the downtown
area bordered by Reading Road,
Broadway, Court Street and Gilbert
Avenue. The site, Broadway Commons,
will be developed as a casino and
entertainment area. Ground will break on
the $300 to $400 million project in the
all and should be fnished in the latter
part o 2012. Including a 4,000-space
parking garage, the development will
span 400,000 to 500,000 SF. A ring o
restaurants and boutiques around the
perimeter o the casino is part o the
vision or the area which will become a
hot spot or both tourists and locals.
Down by the Ohio River, The Banks
project is taking shape on the 18 acres
between Paul Brown Stadium and the
Great American Ball Park reaching
its frst milestone with the opening o
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Bartini
A specialty martini bar is
scheduled to open in the
580 building at East Sixth
and Walnut Streets, a
prominent downtown artsand restaurant intersection.
the east side o the Intermodal TransitFacility, a 1,400 space parking garage.
The next phase will include 300
apartments and 80,000 SF o retail
space that are scheduled or completion
in spring 2011. Design and construction
plans are being fnalized on the Christian
Moerlein Lager House, a two-story
15,000 SF restaurant with seating or
500 indoors and 600 in its outdoor beer
garden, in the 45-acre adjacent park.
The 825,000 SF Great American Tower
at Queen City Square on Sycamore and
Fourth Streets will add 20,000 SF o
new retail space to the market when
completed in 2011.
Adding to the downtown residential
population will be the conversion o
the top eleven oors o the 122,000 SF
16-story Fourth & Race Tower ofce
building to apartments. The ormer home
o the Federal Reserve recently received$2.5 million in Ohio Historic Preservation
Tax Credits towards the $20.2 million
renovation.
Entertainment and dining choicescontinue to multiply in the area
surrounding Fountain Square, the citys
gathering place or un. Mynt Martini
debuted on New Years Eve in the Fith
Third Center on the plaza and eatures
a 1,200 SF outside patio and a 3,800
SF interior with three bars and live
entertainment. Its Just Crepes opened
its second downtown location in 2,500
SF on the ground oor o the Fourth &
Elm building. Taqueria Mercado openedin the 6,000 SF ormerly occupied by
Javiers on Eighth Street. Soho Sushi is a
two-level 5,000 SF restaurant addition in
the Tower Place Mall at Fourth and Race
Streets. Scheduled to open later this
year is Bartini, a specialty martini bar, in
the 8,900 SF ormer Oceanaire Seaood
Room space in the 580 Building on
Walnut Street. A Restaurant Row or
outside dining is envisioned or this area
complementing the Backstage Districtanchored by the Arono Center or the
Arts.
Bootsys, a contemporary restaurant
located across rom the theatre, will
reopen in the all with a new design andbranding. At the corner o Seventh and
Walnut, renovations are taking place on
a two-story 2,000 SF site that will be a
coee and sandwich shop by day and a
sports bar at night. The lower level will
have a lounge with a DJ. Also set to open
later this year is Jean-Roberts Table,
an 8,448 SF restaurant on Vine Street.
Fat Cats replaced Game Day Ca on
East Pete Rose Way and introduced
the dueling pianos entertainmentconcept to Cincinnati. On the west side
o downtown The Penguin, a dueling
piano bar chain, is opening its frst area
location in the 5,150 SF ormer Havana
Martini space in the Carew Tower on
Vine Street.
New hotel options are coming or
overnight accommodations in the
downtown area. Renovations have
begun on the 137-unit 12-story Phelps
Apartment building in the Lytle Park
Historic District. It is being converted into
a 134-unit Residence Inn by Marriott.
When it opens in spring o 2011, it will
be the newest downtown hotel stock
since the $25 million renovation o The
Cincinnatian in 1987. The 225-unit
210,700 SF Metropole Apartments on
Walnut Street across rom the Arono
Center or the Arts was sold to 3CDC. It
will be redeveloped into the 160-suite
21c Hotel eaturing a restaurant and
8,000 SF contemporary art museum.
Relocation o the residentsas well as
Trattoria Roma, an Italian restaurant, and
Subway Lounge, a bar, will take about
a year beore work on the project can
begin. Further north in the Uptown area
the frst phase o the $24 million
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Corryville Crossings is underway atMartin Luther King Boulevard and Short
Vine. Construction o the fve-story 132-
room Hampton Inn and 219-car public
parking garage has reached the midpoint
and should be completed by all.
Mason/Deerfeld Township/Symmes
Township
In the northeast region o Greater
Cincinnati, most o the retail
development has been along the FieldsErtel Road and Mason-Montgomery
Road corridors radiating rom their
intersection with I-71.
Most o the dark space that accumulated
with the departure last year o big box
retailers Soa Express, Circuit City and
Linens n Things in Governors Plaza
on Fields Ertel Road has been flled.
Louisville-based Merridian, a home
urnishings store, is preparing or the
grand opening o its third location in the
32,000 SF ormer Circuit City building.
The 22,900 SF ormer Linens n Things
space is now home to Big Lots. Keep
It Tight holds exercise classes in the
6,000 SF ormer Soa Express site.
Asian Paradise replaced G Bailey in the
6,750 SF restaurant endcap o McCabe
Crossing. Tonys, an upscale Italian
restaurant, flled the 7,700 SF adjacent
reestanding building Bravo let when it
relocated to Deerfeld Towne Center on
Mason-Montgomery Road.
On the north side o Fields Ertel Road,
Salon Concepts took 4,600 SF in Kings
Mall. ALDI opened in the 19,200 SF
ormer hhgregg space in Montgomery
Crossing.
Faade upgrades were completed atThe Shops at Harpers Point on Kemper
Road and the newly expanded Kroger
supermarket opened in March.
Along Mason-Montgomery Road, Remke
Markets expanded its ootprint across
the Ohio River with its purchase o the
biggs supermarket in Governors Pointe.
Five Guys Burgers and Fries, ranked
the astest growing restaurant chain in
the U.S. in 2009 by Technomic, opened
its fth location in the region in 2,776
SF in an outlot building. Dao Modern
Asian Cuisine took over the 7,560 SF
site ormerly occupied by Macaroni
Grill in Deerfeld Towne Center. A newly
constructed 110-unit Hilton Garden Inn
opened on Natorp Boulevard while the
92-room Ramada Inn on South Mason-
Montgomery Road was rebranded Best
Western Mason Inn.
Further north the 410,000 SF PrimeOutlets in Jeersonville gained two new
retailers, Levis and Catherines Plus
Sizes.
West Chester/Liberty Township/Monroe
The astest growing population area
o the Cincinnati market lies in the
northwest area along the I-75 corridor
north o I-275.
West Chester has three new restaurants.Sultans Mediterranean Cuisine is on
Tylers Corner Drive and Grand Ole Pub
is on Princeton-Glendale Road. Stone
Creek Dining Company opened its
second location in the Cincinnati market
in the 8,810 SF ormer Mesh restaurant
space on Muhlhauser Drive.
The 94-acre site at I-75, Cox Road andLiberty Way in Liberty Township could
be the site o the largest uture retail
development in the area. Liberty Towne
Place is in the planning stages and could
include close to 1 million SF o retail
space. Preliminary site plans include
room or three department stores,
an outdoor sports business, movie
theatre, supermarket, specialty shops
as well as restaurants. Frischs recently
acquired two acres at Yankee andCincinnati-Dayton Roads in anticipation
o building a smaller prototype 5,000 SF
restaurant. A ormer 55,000 SF Kroger
on Cincinnati-Dayton Road is now home
to Web Extreme Entertainment eaturing
a go-cart track and laser tag arena.
The 400,000 SF Cincinnati Premium
Outlets at I-75 and SR 63 in Monroe
continues to grow its tenant roster. Joes
Jeans, New York & Company, Claires
Accessories and Under Armour have
already opened their doors or business.
LensCraters, Lacoste, Ann Taylor Lot
Outlet and True Religion are on the
schedule or later this year and early
2011.
Fairfeld/Forest Park
The 66,200 SF once occupied by
AutoNation on Omniplex Court in Forest
Park is now a CarMax Auto Superstore,
the frst in the region. Party City leased
an 11,250 SF portion o the ormer Cost
Plus World Market space in the 74,000
SF Tri-County Marketplace on Princeton
Pike. The 12,700 SF ormer Just
Saab dealership on Dixie Highway has
become the fth area location and new
headquarters or USA Collison Centers.
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Newport on the Levee
Located on the Ohio River
in Kentucky, its unique mix
o restaurants, shops and
entertainment venues draws
visitors rom both sides o
the river.
Newport
At 340,000 SF Newport on the Levee
is the largest entertainment venue in
Northern Kentucky. Caliornia-based
Lucky Strike opened a 24,000 SF center,
Star Lanes, on the plaza level. It eatures
12 public bowling lanes, a party room
with our lanes, billiards and a restaurant
aptly named Toro or its hydraulic bull.
The frst area Brothers Bar & Grill, a
Midwest chain known or its special
events, is now located on the exterior
riverwalk level. One can even learn some
circus tricks at the ying trapeze classes
given by the Amazing Portable Circus
on the concourse. The latest new stores
include The Dragons Hoard, a antasy
clothing and accessories boutique, and
Saxbys Coee.
Crestview Hills/Florence
The largest retail malls in Northern
Kentucky lie in these two communities.
The 500,000 SF Crestview Hills Town
Center at I-275 and Dixie Highway will
be the frst area location o Charming
Charlie, dubbed a Hot Retailer by
ICSC. It will open by the end o the year
in 14,000 SF ormerly occupied by
Entertainment Solutions and Learning
Express. The Learning Express will
reopen in its original 2,945 SF location
ater a move to a larger space and
subsequent closing. The 147,000 SF
JC Penney in the 890,000 SF Florence
Mall at I-75 and KY 18 is undergoing
remodeling that includes new ooring,
lighting and wider aisles. A 1,500 SF
portion will be dedicated to Sephora, the
beauty products boutique. The upgrades
are scheduled or completion in July.
Ollies Bargain Outlet is expanding into
Kentucky. The surplus retailer leased
33,639 SF and will anchor the 170,270
SF Florence Plaza on Connector Drive.
The Factory Card Outlet in the FlorenceSquare Shopping Center on Mall Road
is moving into 18,100 SF in the Village
at the Mall across the street. The
additional space at its new location will
accommodate conversion to the Party
City concept.
Several casual ood chains ound great
locations in the area. A new 6,000 SFRed Robin that seats 200 opened on
Houston Road. Chilis plans to construct
a 5,700 SF restaurant at Houston Road
and Spiral Boulevard. This will be the
frst location in northern Kentucky or the
chain. Dayton-based Hot Head Burritos
is expanding into the Greater Cincinnati
area with its 1,700 SF eatery on Mount
Zion Road. Future sites include Erlanger
and Fort Wright. City Barbeque will have
its frst site in Kentucky on BurlingtonPike ready this all. The Florence Square
Shopping Center will be the second area
location or J. Gumbos.
Investment Sales
The frst hal o 2010 saw an upswing
in the dollar amount and number o
signifcant retail sales in the Greater
Cincinnati area.
The largest sale at $35.0 million
($1,521,739/Acre) involved the
acquisition by Rock Ventures o 23 acres
in the downtown area or building a
casino.
Duke Realty sold its portolio o the
161,100 SF Governors Point North
anchored by Lowes and the 199,000
SF Governors Point South anchored
by Remke Market biggs on Mason-
Montgomery Road in Deerfeld Township
or $27.5 million ($76/SF) to Dallas-
based Encore Enterprises.
Fairfelds 1.75 million SF Cincinnati Mal
was sold by NorthStar to New York-
based Cincinnati Holding Co. LLC or
$5.9 million ($3/SF).
AEI Property Corporation made a
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20 | Cassidy Turley
$5.2 million ($191/SF) NNN leasedinvestment in the 27,140 SF PetSmart at
245 Rivers Edge Drive in Milord.
SUPERVALU sold the 156,150 SF
building housing its biggs supermarket
on New Haven Road in Harrison to
Toebben Cos. or $4.5 million ($29/SF).
The new owner is leasing the building to
Remke Markets which now operates the
grocery. It plans to reduce the ootprint
to 71,000 SF within the building.
Louisville-based Merridian Furniture,
looking to expand into the Cincinnati
market, purchased the 33,400 SF ormer
Circuit City building along the Fields Ertel
Road corridor or $2.2 million ($64/SF).
The 88-room EconoLodge at 11620
Chester Road in Sharonville was sold
to Ambelal or $1.5 million ($17,045/
Room).
The 103,000 SF Cambridge Plaza at
3111 Dixie Highway in Hamilton was
sold by Cambridge Plaza o Ohio LLC to
Cambridge Real Estate Partners LLC or
$1.5 million ($14/SF).
The Itis Group acquired the 20,500 SF
Cornell Crossing strip mall or $1.24
million ($60/SF) with plans to convert it
to medical ofce space. The only retail
entity remaining is The Melting Pot.
The 18,087 SF retail strip center at 6417
Branch Hill Guinea Road in Loveland
was acquired at a sheris sale by Fith
Third Bank or $1.2 million ($66/SF).
Outlook
Positive consumer spending trends
resumed in May with a 0.2% increase
over the previous month ater a atApril reading according to the Bureau
o Economic Analysis. Coupled with the
positive trending or personal income
and disposable personal income,
retailers can see some light at the end
o the tunnel o the current recession.
However, high unemployment continues
to impede a speedy return to previous
high levels o consumer spending.
Locally, the laundry list o ast ood and
casual ood restaurants opening in the
Greater Cincinnati market continues to
grow. Banking on the consumer need
to get out o the home kitchen without
breaking the bank, this sector has seen
success. Chains like Five Guys Burgers
and Fries, Red Robin, Frischs and
Chipotle Mexican Grill added several
new sites in the market in the frst hal o
2010.
The evolution o the downtown retailmarket will take a giant leap with the
presence o an urban casino and
the ensuing synergies developed in
the surrounding neighborhoods. The
reinorcing ripple eect o The Banks
Project along the Ohio River, the
Fountain Square renaissance radiating
to the Backstage District and Restaurant
Row and the Broadway Commons casino
project cannot be underestimated.
Retail success depends not only on the
local populace but also on the traveling
segment that spends time in the
area. According to the Cincinnati USA
Convention and Visitors Bureau 2009
was the fth year it has increased uture
bookings. Cincinnati, in act, is a ull 11
percentage points ahead o other cities
in the Eastern time zone when it comesto bookings through 2013, according to
Je Eastman, CEO o Kansas City-based
Trends, Analysis and Projections, which
tracks convention booking data or 50
cities across the U.S. and Canada.
However, distressed asset status is
throwing a monkey wrench into leasing
at local malls. Who has the authority
to transact deals when an owner is in
deault and co-tenancy clauses are just
some o the actors that may inhibit the
continued health o some malls.
Uncertainty about the new accounting
rules under consideration by the
Financial Accounting Standards Board
(FASB), is causing consternation in the
commercial real estate world. Buy or
lease, renewal options, estimating uture
sales over the term o an entire lease
are issues that will aect how deals are
transacted in the uture.
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US Capital Trends Sales o Signifcant Multiamily and Commercial Properties
Source: Real Capital Analytics US Capital Trends-6/2010
Overview
In keeping with the overall economys
unsteady recovery, the investment
property sector o commercial real
estate is showing signs o incremental
improvement, albeit uneven and
somewhat unpredictable. In this mid-
year report a summary o current
observations about the investment
property market rom a variety o sources
is provided. A consistent thread running
throughout our fndings: Things continueto change.
The ollowing is an accumulation
o summary comments, opinions,
observations and predictions about the
current state o the commercial real
estate investment market, grouped into
our main topics:
Economy
It appears to some that we are on the
path to a new normal which will
be a market that suers rom several
cyclical economic obstacles.
There are many who predict an
economic recovery. However, that
recovery may not beneft everyone
as there will be a dramatic shit in
consumer spending habits that will
negatively impact the upscale sectors
o the economy.
Historical data shows ongoing up and
down cycles. Indications are that the
US economy is entering a new cycle
o expansion which should be longer
than the previous recessionary cycle.
Values/Deal Flow
The number o overall transactions
is still limited. The majority o the
deal ow activity is ocused on trophy
assets. This is creating widespread
rustration among both investors and
owners over the lack o transaction
traction.
The Second Quarter 2010 Korpacz
Investor Survey cites a decline in the
average overall cap rate in 17 o the
surveys 30 markets. This indicates
investors perceive less risk in the
industry now, especially or prime
properties in healthier markets.
Investors who are able to aggressively
pursue opportunities on an all-cash
basis while waiting to secure debt
post-closing will compete more
avorably in the market.
Values appear to be near the bottom,provided there isnt a second dip in
the economy that would negatively
aect demand actors.
Investment Market Recovery
A broad based recovery hasnt yet
taken hold in the market, although
there are signs that it is on a positive
path.
More capital is coming back to the
market every month, especially to
certain sectors o the market that
are considered sae. These sectors
include long term, single tenant, net
leased properties, and well occupied
Class A assets in top tier markets.
Lenders are seeing their portolios o
owned property grow substantially.
They are taking a longer term
approach to ownership due to
current low values and are resisting
dispositions until the economic
recovery allows or some lease-up and
increases in cash ows. As pressure
increases on lenders to dispose o
assets, these assets will eventuallybe redeployed back to either private
investors or opportunistic unds.
Investment Market
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T
otalSales(in$100Million)
Greater Cincinnati Total Non-Residential Property Sales(Greater than $1 Million)
First Hal 2010 Investment Sale Activity - Some Greater Cincinnati Major Ofce Transactions
Property Name Location SF Price $/SF
Terrace Plaza Downtown Cincinnati 300,000 $7,000,000 $23
5900 Building West Chester 28,800 $3,500,000 $122
Corporate Circle Center West Chester 60,000 $1,900,000 $32
308 East 8th Street Downtown Cincinnati 26,919 $1,230,000* $46
7862 Kingland Drive West Chester 11,510 $1,050,000 $91
* Sale price included 6 adjacent parking spaces and 29-space parking lot
First Hal 2010 Investment Sale Activity - Some Greater Cincinnati Major Industrial Transactions
Property Name Location SF Price $/SF
Gateway 75 Sharonville 1,150,000 $7,800,000 $7
6500 Hamilton-Lebanon Road Middletown 399,600 $7,000,000 $18
4600 East Tech Drive Union Township 44,439 $4,000,000 $90
Former Ford Plant Batavia 1,860,000 $3,500,000 $2
7150 Paddock Road Roselawn 1,860,000 $1,650,000 $37
There are signs fnancing has become
more available or the right borrower
seeking quality assets in better
markets. There is steady competition
among well capitalized investors which
is helping to elevate sale prices and
lower cap rates or prime properties.
Opportunity
There are opportunities in the
marketplace or the patient investor
who can provide capital and liquidity
over the long-term recovery.
The mainstream investment market
has two primary camps:
The Core investors looking or
long-term credit leases in either prime
locations or secondary locations with
deendable utures. This sector is
currently the most active and highly
competitive with target yields in the
8-12% range.
The Value Add investors, who are
plentiul but ar less active (not by
choice) due to the current gap inopinions o value between sellers and
buyers. This sectors target yields are
in the 13-20+% range, depending on
the assets amount o risk.
For those willing to buck the current
trends and who are ready and able
to be creative, there are numerous
opportunities to selectively acquire
assets that can provide good returns
over the long term.
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First Hal 2010 Investment Sale Activity - Some Greater Cincinnati Major Retail Transactions
Property Name Location SF or # o Rooms Price $/SF or $/Room
Governors Pointe N & S Deerfeld Township 360,100 $27,500,000 $76
Cincinnati Mall Fairfeld 1,750,000 $5,900,000 $3
PetSmart Milord 27,140 $5,180,000 $191
Former biggs Harrison 156,152 $4,500,000 $29
Cambridge Plaza Hamilton 103,048 $1,500,000 $14
EconoLodge Sharonville 88 $1,500,000 $17,045/room
6417 Branch Hill Guinea Rd Loveland 18,087 $1,200,000 $66
Goddard School Anderson 6,314 $1,040,000 $164
ConclusionAt midpoint 2010, the third year o this
most recent downturn in the commercial
real estate investment market was
completed. Whether it is the amount
o time this correction has taken or the
distance allen in terms o values and
market activity, by any measure, the last
three years will be an epic milestone in
the world o investment real estate.
Although there appear to be a numbero indicators pointing toward a bottom
in the commercial real estate investment
markets, including continued increases
in capital commitments to the sector,
increased numbers o bidders or
properties and increased sales activity,
along with a slowing o the increase in
CMBS delinquencies, only a ew o the
major markets around the country seem
to be benefting rom this, and then,
only or Class A properties. The rest othe country and the majority o the non
Class A product are still struggling to fnd
a point o equilibrium between sellers,
buyers and lenders. I the cycle ollows
its normal course, investors will tire o
competing or core assets in primary
markets and will begin to move towards
more value-add properties in primary
markets and core assets in secondarymarkets. As this movement progresses,
pricing and competition will increase as
well.
There seems to be little doubt that we
are on a positive road to recovery, but
the length o that road and where it leads
are yet to be determined.
(Sources: Cassidy Turley Commercial Real Estate
Services U.S. Forecast Report-6/2010; PIMCO
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Project-6/2010;
Real Capital Analytics US Capital Trends-6/2010;
PriceWaterhouseCoopers Korpacz Real Estate
Survey-6/2010)
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